The scientists who published a study last year in Nature predicting sea level rises of up to 82 cm (about 30 inches) by the year 2100 have now officially retracted their study. The scientists have acknowledged that two particular mistakes they made affected the outcome of their study, and the work will have to be redone.
When the study was published last year, the IPCC trumpeted it as “proof” of their report's claims of rising sea levels. They also cited it as part of the “settled science” of climate change.
Oops.
Kudos to Mark Siddall, Thomas Stocker, and Peter Clark (the scientists who published the study) for their handling of the mistakes discovered...
Tuesday, February 23, 2010
Gimme Just Ten Minutes...
Anthony Watts wants just 10 minutes alone in a room with the slimy Dr. Jeffrey Sachs.
Seeking Sparsity to Recover Images...
An interesting algorithm that generates realistic images from very imperfect source data (example below).
Monday, February 22, 2010
Preikstolen...
I'd never heard of Preikstolen until my mom sent me an email with some photos of it (see at right, click to enlarge). It's in Norway, and I'd love to visit this place. I'd be sitting on the edge dangling my feet, and my wife would be right behind me yelling and screaming at me to move back!
Israel Versus Iran: Yes!
Iran (repeatedly) threatens to blow Israel off the map.
Iran is not-so-covertly developing nuclear weapons, and is close to achieving that goal.
Israel has nukes, and delivery capability, but surely wouldn't want to use them except in extreme circumstances.
Israel has the most powerful air force in the Middle East, and surely could reach Iran – but probably at great cost to her airmen, and with great risk to mission success.
The rest of the world is doing essentially nothing to defuse this situation. China and Russia are blocking all attempts to use less-than-military pressure, and Europe isn't too excited about it, either – especially Germany and France, who are major trading partners with Iran.
What's a threatened Israel to do?
Develop a fleet of unmanned aircraft with the range to strike Iran and with the payload capacity to carry either bunker-busters or nukes.
Yes!
Iran is not-so-covertly developing nuclear weapons, and is close to achieving that goal.
Israel has nukes, and delivery capability, but surely wouldn't want to use them except in extreme circumstances.
Israel has the most powerful air force in the Middle East, and surely could reach Iran – but probably at great cost to her airmen, and with great risk to mission success.
The rest of the world is doing essentially nothing to defuse this situation. China and Russia are blocking all attempts to use less-than-military pressure, and Europe isn't too excited about it, either – especially Germany and France, who are major trading partners with Iran.
What's a threatened Israel to do?
Develop a fleet of unmanned aircraft with the range to strike Iran and with the payload capacity to carry either bunker-busters or nukes.
Yes!
ClimateGate: Roundup...
Lots more in the news:
Monckton v. Lambert on the Pinker tapes, at JoNova.
George Will's take: Blinded by Science.
Charlie Martin marvels at the U.S. press' ability to ignore the story.
L. Gordon Crovitz, writing at the Wall Street Journal on open science.
Willis Eschenbach on “adjusted” (read “manufactured”) temperature data in Anchorage.
Monckton v. Lambert on the Pinker tapes, at JoNova.
George Will's take: Blinded by Science.
Charlie Martin marvels at the U.S. press' ability to ignore the story.
L. Gordon Crovitz, writing at the Wall Street Journal on open science.
Willis Eschenbach on “adjusted” (read “manufactured”) temperature data in Anchorage.
Jasmine...
Rainfall...
We've had just over an inch (27 mm) in the past three days – which means we're over 3 inches for the month, and nearly 10 inches for the year.And there's more in the forecast. Woo hoo!
Taking Care of the Wounded Soldiers...
Medical evacuation by air. Classic Yon detail, prose and photos. Go read.
Sunday, February 21, 2010
A Menopause Question...
Via my mom:
Q: How many women with MENOPAUSE does it take to change a light bulb?My mom says this is the best menopause question evah!
A: One! ONLY ONE!!!! And do you know WHY? Because no one else in this house knows HOW to change a light bulb! They don't even know that the bulb is BURNED OUT!! They would sit in the dark for THREE DAYS before they figured it out. And, once they figured it out, they wouldn't be able to find the #&%!* light bulbs despite the fact that they've been in the SAME CABINET for the past 17 YEARS! But if they did, by some miracle of God, actually find them, 2 DAYS LATER, the chair they dragged to stand on to change the STUPID light bulb would STILL BE IN THE SAME SPOT!!!!! AND UNDERNEATH IT WOULD BE THE WRAPPER THE FREAKING LIGHT BULBS CAME IN!!! BECAUSE NO ONE EVER PICKS UP OR CARRIES OUT THE GARBAGE!!!! IT'S A WONDER WE HAVEN'T ALL SUFFOCATED FROM THE PILES OF GARBAGE THAT ARE A FOOT DEEP THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE HOUSE!! IT WOULD TAKE AN ARMY TO CLEAN THIS PLACE! AND DON'T EVEN GET ME STARTED ON WHO CHANGES THE TOILET PAPER ROLL !!
I'm sorry. What was the question?
A Different Sort of Congresscritter...
Reader Doug S. pointed me to this interesting interview of Alaskan Congressman Don Young:
He sure doesn't sound like any congresscritters from this part of the U.S...
He sure doesn't sound like any congresscritters from this part of the U.S...
Oh, My Gosh - the French Have Raised Their Alert Level!
From maxedoutmama:
The French government announced yesterday that it has raised its terror alert level from "Run" to "Hide". The only two higher levels in France are "Collaborate" (a recent replacement for "Blame Bush") and "Surrender." The rise was precipitated by a recent fire that destroyed France's white flag factory, effectively paralyzing the country's military capability.Read the whole thing.
An Iraqi Refugee in El Cajon...
El Cajon is a city just 25 miles or so (by road) from my home. Read the story of Thabit Khalaf, who fled the Iraqi terrorists after they kidnapped his son. Thabit paid the demanded ransom, but he still hasn't seen his boy. There must be many stories like this, sadly...
Saturday, February 20, 2010
U.S. Government Poisoning Program Kills 10,000 People...
I'd never heard of this before. Apparently during Prohibition, the U.S. government deliberately poisoned industrial alcohol supplies. The idea was to discourage thieves from stealing and selling the industrial alcohol alcohol to drinkers – but they did it anyway. Some estimates place the resulting death toll as high as 10,000 Americans.
Yet another reason for citizens to keep their right to bear arms...
Yet another reason for citizens to keep their right to bear arms...
ClimateGate: Roundup...
I continue to marvel at the flood of published material, now that it's cool to be an AGW skeptic:
Sarah Palin rails about the “snow job” revealed by ClimateGate in a link-filled Facebook posting. One thing Palin does very impressively is to leverage the Internet to get her messages out. I can't think of any other politician who even comes close to this...
An MIT climatologist says “...at this point, the models seem to be failing.” Doesn't sound like settled science to me!
Observed North American snow levels trending in the opposite direction of the climate models' predictions. Oops!
Vindication for an early AGW skeptic.
What changes in snow levels tell us.
Sarah Palin rails about the “snow job” revealed by ClimateGate in a link-filled Facebook posting. One thing Palin does very impressively is to leverage the Internet to get her messages out. I can't think of any other politician who even comes close to this...
An MIT climatologist says “...at this point, the models seem to be failing.” Doesn't sound like settled science to me!
Observed North American snow levels trending in the opposite direction of the climate models' predictions. Oops!
Vindication for an early AGW skeptic.
What changes in snow levels tell us.
al-Zarqawi Surprised by His Reception in Heaven...
Sent along by reader Doug W.:
Abu al-Zarqawi died and George Washington met him at the Pearly Gates. He slapped him across the face and yelled, "How dare you try to destroy the nation I helped conceive!"I was chuckling for hours after I first read it...
Patrick Henry approached, punched him in the nose and shouted, "You wanted to end our liberties but you failed!"
James Madison followed, kicked him in the groin and said, "This is why I allowed our government to provide for the common defense!"
Thomas Jefferson was next, beat al-Zarqawi with a long cane and snarled "It was Evil men like you who inspired me to write the Declaration of Independence."
The beatings and thrashings continued as George Mason, James Monroe and 66 other early Americans unleashed their anger on the terrorist Leader.
As al-Zarqawi lay bleeding and in pain, an Angel appeared. Al- Zarqawi wept and said, "This is not what you promised me."
The Angel replied, "I told you there would be 72 Virginians waiting for you in Heaven. What did you think I said?"
George Will at CPAC...
Excellent speech:
His speech had me cheering – and wishing we had someone like this running for President in the last election. Maybe the next?
His speech had me cheering – and wishing we had someone like this running for President in the last election. Maybe the next?
Friday, February 19, 2010
Barocky Road...
Via my wife:In honor of the 44th President of the United States, Baskin-Robbins Ice Cream has introduced a new flavor: "Barocky Road"
Barocky Road is a blend of half vanilla, half chocolate, and surrounded by nuts and flakes. The vanilla portion of the mix is not openly advertised and usually denied as an ingredient. The nuts and flakes are all very bitter and hard to swallow.
The cost is $100.00 per scoop.
When purchased it will be presented to you in a large beautiful cone, but after you pay for it, the ice cream is taken away and given to the person in line behind you at no charge.
You are left with an empty wallet and no change, holding an empty cone with no hope of getting any ice cream.
Are you stimulated?
Miss Me Yet?
Merchandise displaying this image (or similar ones) is selling very well on the Internet. CafePress is one of the biggest specialty retailers of such stuff, and as of this morning “Miss me yet?” is at the top of their hit parade. Seven of top ten items are political; all are conservative or libertarian. Interesting...
Water Vapor Feedback...
A new study shows that water vapor in the upper atmosphere provides negative feedback to temperature, not the positive feedback the AGW models assume. This is a great example of the failings of models on poorly understood and extremely complex processes. Observational science is much more reliable...
Thursday, February 18, 2010
UN Climate Chief Resigns...
Yvo de Boer failed to secure any agreement from the Copenhagen warmenistfest, and now he's falling on his sword...
First Images from WISE...
NASA published these yesterday (that's Andromeda at right, in several wavelengths rendered as false colors). More of this, please, and much less picture windows on useless space stations!Giant versions of several such photos are available at the link above...
Frederik Pohl is Blogging!
Until I ran across his blog, I had no idea Frederik Pohl was still alive – much less blogging! If his name means nothing to you, then you weren't a reader of science fiction in the '50's and '60s – for he is one of the giants of early SF. He was also a personal friend of Isaac Asimov, one of the other giants of SF, and is posting some of his reminiscences on his blog. Awesome, dude!
On Skepticism and Science...
Bill Schweber offers some wisdom on science and the role of skepticism, all in the context of AGW. Via reader Doug W...
The Price of Moral Vanity...
An excellent rant on one of liberalism's central problems, as a riff on the recent capture of a Taliban honcho...
Triple Hit from WUWT...
Watts Up With That? has three interesting AGW-related stories up: another reason why Greenland's glaciers are melting, another IPCC report fiasco, and this year's snowfall in the northern hemisphere.
A Politician Talking Sense?
Sounds like a flying pig moment, doesn't it? But here's the transcript of a speech by a governor, sounding more like a level-headed businessman than a pandering, poll-driven politician. As if that wasn't remarkable enough, this governor is from New Jersey!
Business Abandoning Climate Change...
I guess climate change, tarnished by scandal, doesn't make so much business sense any more...
Diffie, Hellman, and Merkle Win a Prize...
The Hamming Medal was awarded to cryptographic pioneers Whitfield Diffie, Martin Hellman, and Ralph Merkle. Their basic technique for what is today called “public key” or “asymmetric” cryptography was the first available to anyone outside three-letter agencies (NSA, CIA, etc.). It's also the only real cipher I've actually implemented, several times over the years and most recently just a year ago. Though it's over thirty years old, it's still perfectly viable...
I'm Envious...
Of these animals who can see five different primary colors, instead of the three that I can see. Which animals are those? Chickens.
Wednesday, February 17, 2010
Overflowing...
Joshua Bloch is well-known to any Java programmer. He's been working for Google for years now. I just ran across his 2006 blog post talking about broken binary sorts and mergesorts, but really the problem he's describing is simply an overflow in binary integer addition: adding together two numbers whose sum is larger than the largest value an integer can hold.
Joshua's example is using 32 bit integers, which very roughly can hold values between -2 billion and + 2 billion. So, for example, if you tried to add 1.5 billion to 1.6 billion, the result (3.1 billion) is larger than an integer can hold, and the result is invalid. That's an overflow.
I was amused to see him write about overflow as though it were a rare and exotic phenomenon. To those of us who “grew up” with 8 bit microcomputers, overflow is an old “friend” we know very well. Why? Well, simply because the largest number an 8 bit integer can hold is quite small (specifically, -128 to +127), so you'll frequently run into overflow in common sorts of problems. Oh, yes, I know overflow very well. And I suspect that early experience has made me much more sensitive to the possibility of overflow. Everywhere I've ever worked, I've run into (and fixed) examples of possible overflow – they're more common than I suspect Joshua knows.
Most recently I found an example in a signum function, where one integer was subtracted from another, and the sign of the result was tested to see if it was positive or negative. The original code was naively written, making the assumption that no overflow was possible (technically with subtraction the problem is called underflow, but it's really the same thing in the end). Here's a simple example in 8 bit integers: let's say you were comparing +100 to -100. The signum function subtracted the second number from the first number (+100 minus -100). The result you'd expect would be 200 – but that's too large a value to hold in an 8 bit integer. Overflow is the result.
Here's where a “feature” of Java (and many other languages) gets in the way: Java has no test for overflow, and doesn't produce any exceptions. In the example above, the result of (+100 minus -100) is a negative number – definitely not the expected value, and not even the right sign. In a signum function, that means it gives results exactly backward from the intent. It's certainly possible to write Java code that detects overflows, but it's a bit of a pain, and outside the experience and knowledge of most Java programmers. In fact, the very possibility of an overflow seems to catch many Java programmers by surprise, which is probably why these problems are so common.
I've recently been programming a PIC microcontroller, one of the very low-end models in the line. This very primitive little computer is an 8 bit machine, much like the machines I worked on in the '70s. But unlike them, and to my great surprise, the little PIC doesn't even have overflow detection in hardware. Overflow detection is trivial for hardware, so I suspect its omission is more oversight than intent. But in any case, the code I wrote had to look for overflow exactly as you'd have to do in Java...
Joshua's example is using 32 bit integers, which very roughly can hold values between -2 billion and + 2 billion. So, for example, if you tried to add 1.5 billion to 1.6 billion, the result (3.1 billion) is larger than an integer can hold, and the result is invalid. That's an overflow.
I was amused to see him write about overflow as though it were a rare and exotic phenomenon. To those of us who “grew up” with 8 bit microcomputers, overflow is an old “friend” we know very well. Why? Well, simply because the largest number an 8 bit integer can hold is quite small (specifically, -128 to +127), so you'll frequently run into overflow in common sorts of problems. Oh, yes, I know overflow very well. And I suspect that early experience has made me much more sensitive to the possibility of overflow. Everywhere I've ever worked, I've run into (and fixed) examples of possible overflow – they're more common than I suspect Joshua knows.
Most recently I found an example in a signum function, where one integer was subtracted from another, and the sign of the result was tested to see if it was positive or negative. The original code was naively written, making the assumption that no overflow was possible (technically with subtraction the problem is called underflow, but it's really the same thing in the end). Here's a simple example in 8 bit integers: let's say you were comparing +100 to -100. The signum function subtracted the second number from the first number (+100 minus -100). The result you'd expect would be 200 – but that's too large a value to hold in an 8 bit integer. Overflow is the result.
Here's where a “feature” of Java (and many other languages) gets in the way: Java has no test for overflow, and doesn't produce any exceptions. In the example above, the result of (+100 minus -100) is a negative number – definitely not the expected value, and not even the right sign. In a signum function, that means it gives results exactly backward from the intent. It's certainly possible to write Java code that detects overflows, but it's a bit of a pain, and outside the experience and knowledge of most Java programmers. In fact, the very possibility of an overflow seems to catch many Java programmers by surprise, which is probably why these problems are so common.
I've recently been programming a PIC microcontroller, one of the very low-end models in the line. This very primitive little computer is an 8 bit machine, much like the machines I worked on in the '70s. But unlike them, and to my great surprise, the little PIC doesn't even have overflow detection in hardware. Overflow detection is trivial for hardware, so I suspect its omission is more oversight than intent. But in any case, the code I wrote had to look for overflow exactly as you'd have to do in Java...
On Bayh's Departure...
The WSJ has a couple of excellent commentary pieces on the meaning of Evan Bayh's departure...
Phobos, Close Up...
The Mars Express robotic explorer has started making a series of close flybys of the Martian moon Phobos. On the closest pass, the surface of Phobos will be just 31 miles (50 km) from the satellite. In addition to collecting science data, the satellite will also map possible landing sites for Russian robotic mission that plans to land on the surface of Phobos next year.The Mars Express mission, over its entire lifetime, plus the Russian Mars mission, cost less than 1/5 of the new “picture window” on the space station. Oh, and the robotic missions are returning huge amounts of actual science data, while the picture window is returning...nothing at all.
Tuesday, February 16, 2010
What Would You Do?
Me? I'm pretty sure you couldn't depend on my normally friendly manner. In fact, I think I'd be thinking quite intensely about my shotgun and how it could best be employed to set this situation right...
Obama Announces Reactor Financing...
Obama is now supporting power generation by nuclear power plants. Not said in this article (though it's certainly implied by the jobs timetable): whether he's also going to direct his Department of Energy to fast-track the plant's licensing. This is quite a turnaround in Obama's green positioning, and it's sure to piss off some of this greenie friends...
Hot Tamales! Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar is in the Hoosegow!
Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar captured by a joint U.S.-Pakistani operation. Oh, more of this, please!
Synthetic Holograms...
Software computes the exposure patterns to create completely synthetic holograms from nothing more than a computer model and a piece of film. Awesome!
Homemade CPUs...
Here's a nice post (with photos) of some made-from-scratch CPUs (including one made entirely from relays!). I've often thought of doing something like this myself, just for fun. I can add one to the list: back in the mid '70s, I worked with Don Tarbell, one of the microcomputer pioneers. He's most well-known for the Tarbell cassette interface and the Tarbell floppy controller. I wrote a Basic interpreter for him, which he distributed with the floppy controller and as a standalone product. Don had an all-TTL homebrew CPU in his offices, something he built in the early '70s just for fun. At the time, I couldn't imagine anything more intriguing than a project like that...I spent hours with him just poring over the details. He greatly enjoyed having an interested person to talk about it with...
ClimateGate: Mainstream at Last...
There's a nice piece in the WSJ today. The lead:
It has been a bad—make that dreadful—few weeks for what used to be called the "settled science" of global warming, and especially for the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change that is supposed to be its gold standard.It sure is nice to see this sort of thing in the American press. It would be even nicer to see more of it...
First it turns out that the Himalayan glaciers are not going to melt anytime soon, notwithstanding dire U.N. predictions. Next came news that an IPCC claim that global warming could destroy 40% of the Amazon was based on a report by an environmental pressure group. Other IPCC sources of scholarly note have included a mountaineering magazine and a student paper.
Since the climategate email story broke in November, the standard defense is that while the scandal may have revealed some all-too-human behavior by a handful of leading climatologists, it made no difference to the underlying science. We think the science is still disputable. But there's no doubt that climategate has spurred at least some reporters to scrutinize the IPCC's headline-grabbing claims in a way they had rarely done previously.
Bye, Bye, Missile...
The Air Force's Airborn Laser Testbed (ALT) took out a missile in a successful test. Think about how much technology has changed warfare between Vietnam and Afghanistan – then try to imagine what things like energy weapons, unmanned aircraft, and pervasive networking are going to do in the next few decades...
Potential Lighting Revolution...
The efficiency of CFL with the light quality of incandescant. Sounds great!
Monday, February 15, 2010
Estonia (and the Other Baltics) Do It Right...
Little Estonia, which I've visited many times, has learned its capitalist lessons better than most.
Better than the clowns in Washington, for sure. Said clowns should be ashamed of themselves, though I see no evidence of that...
Better than the clowns in Washington, for sure. Said clowns should be ashamed of themselves, though I see no evidence of that...
Patterns...
Michael Yon has posted another in his series of outstanding on-the-front-lines reports on the war on terror. Today he's in Afghanistan with the troops fighting our largest battle to date in that land...
He's doing this wonderful work self-funded. Please do as I did, and hit his tip jar – we need more of his fine reporting, and we don't get anything even remotely like it from the lamestream media...
He's doing this wonderful work self-funded. Please do as I did, and hit his tip jar – we need more of his fine reporting, and we don't get anything even remotely like it from the lamestream media...
Bayh Retiring...
Democratic Senator Evan Bayh is retiring from the Senate, and there's a very good chance that his seat will be filled by a Republican. He joins a veritable parade of Democratic incumbents who are retiring from both the House and the Senate. While some have motives unrelated to politics, certainly many of these retirements are motivated by dim prospects in the upcoming elections. Bayh, for instance, faced a very tough battle this November against Republican Dan Coats in a Republican-leaning state, in the year of Scott Brown. It seems doubtful that the Democrats will find a candidate who can successfully oppose the very popular and widely recognized Coats.
Even though I've lived through such things before, I'm still somewhat stunned by the rapid turnaround in the fortunes of the Democrats in general and the Obama administration in particular. At this point, I'd say Obama is going to be lucky to be perceived as well as Jimmy Carter...
Even though I've lived through such things before, I'm still somewhat stunned by the rapid turnaround in the fortunes of the Democrats in general and the Obama administration in particular. At this point, I'd say Obama is going to be lucky to be perceived as well as Jimmy Carter...
America's Cup: USA Wins!
USA 17 (the beautiful hydroplaning trimaran at right, click to enlarge), sponsored by Oracle, has won the America's cup. Congratulations to all involved!
America, Please Don't Go Here...
The United Kingdom has become the land of politically correct. Tragic incidents like this one appear in the news there almost daily. In this case a little girl trapped underwater in a car is left there for almost two hours, even though potential rescuers were on the scene. Why? Because safety regulations forbade anyone other than a specialist rescue team from entering the water. Nobody on the scene even tried to enter the water.
They'd all been emasculated by the pervasive political correctness in the U.K. today.
I'd really hate to see America go this route.
Since the story linked above was posted, the little girl has died...
They'd all been emasculated by the pervasive political correctness in the U.K. today.
I'd really hate to see America go this route.
Since the story linked above was posted, the little girl has died...
Quote of the Day...
Says Nikki Dowling, who has recently started dating other women:
Hats off to you guys who make picking roses look easy.Prior to reading this, it never occurred to me that a woman in a relationship with another woman might experience something closely akin to what a heterosexual man does. Read it...
Women Cause Big Government...
Read it and think about it. Does it match your own experience, no matter how uncomfortable being so politically incorrect makes you feel?
It matches my experience in the aggregate, for sure. By that I mean that if you took all the women whose political tendencies I'm aware of, and ranked them on a one-dimensional scale from leftish to rightish, the average would be well to the left of center. Do that with the men whose political tendencies I'm aware of, and the opposite is true. I can think of plenty of counter-examples on both sides (Anne Coulter, Michelle Malkin, Sarah Palin; Barney Frank, Harry Reid, Paul Krugman), but still...the overall gender difference is there, and fairly obvious.
So here's the obvious question raised: should repealing women's suffrage be an objective of the libertarian, conservative or tea parties?
Just sayin'...
It matches my experience in the aggregate, for sure. By that I mean that if you took all the women whose political tendencies I'm aware of, and ranked them on a one-dimensional scale from leftish to rightish, the average would be well to the left of center. Do that with the men whose political tendencies I'm aware of, and the opposite is true. I can think of plenty of counter-examples on both sides (Anne Coulter, Michelle Malkin, Sarah Palin; Barney Frank, Harry Reid, Paul Krugman), but still...the overall gender difference is there, and fairly obvious.
So here's the obvious question raised: should repealing women's suffrage be an objective of the libertarian, conservative or tea parties?
Just sayin'...
Tea Party Report...
Glenn Reynolds (aka InstaPundit) has a nice WSJ piece about the tea party convention. He's a very sober voice in the generally bizarre lamestream media reporting on the event...
ClimateGate: Roundup...
Sheesh, the dam has truly broken. Investigative journalists all over the world (but lamentably, darned few in the U.S.) are now tearing into the meat of the story revealed by the ClimateGate emails. Notable recent events:
Steven Goddard uses tectonics (just as I did) to illustrate how scientific consensus has often been wrong.
Dr. Phil Jones, the disgraced scientist and administrator at the center of the ClimateGate emails, has admitted that there has been no detectable global warming in the past 10 years – directly contradicting one of the central assertions of the IPCC report, and of course the heart of preacher Al Gore's fire-and-brimstone claims.
After errors in the IPCC's claims about Himalayan glaciers, African agriculture, Australian and New Zealand's temperature records, and South American rain forest demise, could there be even more that they screwed up? Yup, and JoNova has the details (in Scandinavia, this time). Did these clowns get anything right?
The London Times reports on doubts about modern temperature records, focusing on local factor problems such as the urban heat island effect. Jeez, it's about time! For several years now, AGW skeptics have been all over this rather obvious foundational problem for the whole AGW theory...
Brian at Six Meat Buffet has a suggestion for the next angle the British press should investigate: just why in the hell the American press has neglected the whole ClimateGate/AGW story...
Steven Goddard uses tectonics (just as I did) to illustrate how scientific consensus has often been wrong.
Dr. Phil Jones, the disgraced scientist and administrator at the center of the ClimateGate emails, has admitted that there has been no detectable global warming in the past 10 years – directly contradicting one of the central assertions of the IPCC report, and of course the heart of preacher Al Gore's fire-and-brimstone claims.
After errors in the IPCC's claims about Himalayan glaciers, African agriculture, Australian and New Zealand's temperature records, and South American rain forest demise, could there be even more that they screwed up? Yup, and JoNova has the details (in Scandinavia, this time). Did these clowns get anything right?
The London Times reports on doubts about modern temperature records, focusing on local factor problems such as the urban heat island effect. Jeez, it's about time! For several years now, AGW skeptics have been all over this rather obvious foundational problem for the whole AGW theory...
Brian at Six Meat Buffet has a suggestion for the next angle the British press should investigate: just why in the hell the American press has neglected the whole ClimateGate/AGW story...
Saturday, February 13, 2010
My Way...
The inimitable Mark Steyn:
I've been saying for months that the difference between America and Europe is that, when the global economy nosedived, everywhere from Iceland to Bulgaria mobs took to the streets and besieged Parliament, demanding to know why government didn't do more for them. This is the only country in the developed world where a mass movement took to the streets to say we can do just fine if you control-freak statists would just stay the hell out of our lives, and our pockets. You can shove your non-stimulating stimulus, your jobless jobs bill, and your multitrillion-dollar porkathons. This isn't karaoke. These guys are singing "I'll do it my way" for real.Read the whole thing...
Landing on a Carrier...
Two part clip from the PBS Carrier series, via my mom:
I watched a good many landings on the USS Enterprise (the “Big E”) when I was in the Navy, deployed off the coast of North Vietnam, in the early '70s. The technology now is vastly improved, but it's just as difficult and risky now as it was back then...
I watched a good many landings on the USS Enterprise (the “Big E”) when I was in the Navy, deployed off the coast of North Vietnam, in the early '70s. The technology now is vastly improved, but it's just as difficult and risky now as it was back then...
Cassy vs. Courtney: Cassy Wins in a Knockout!
Cassy Fiano loves a soldier, a Marine who's done two tours in Iraq and is heading to Afghanistan soon. She's infuriated by Courtney Cook's recent Salon article How to leave a soldier, in which Ms. Cook recommends that other women leave their soldiers while their soldier is on deployment, with a proverbial “Dear John” letter. Cassy tears Courtney a new one.
I was disgusted by Courtney's piece when I first read it a couple of days ago. It got me to wondering just how many modern women were so shallow and so selfish that they'd read Courtney's piece with approval – or even take action on it. Having been deployed myself (though before I was married), it was easy for me to empathize with the soldier on the receiving end of Courtney's cruelty.
Reading Cassy's piece was a breath of fresh air. I kept saying things to myself like “Point Cassy!” as I was reading. At the end I had a smile on my face, for several reasons: Cassy's excellent takedown, the good fortune of Cassy's soldier, and the hope she gave me that the Cassy's in this world outnumber the Courtneys...
I was disgusted by Courtney's piece when I first read it a couple of days ago. It got me to wondering just how many modern women were so shallow and so selfish that they'd read Courtney's piece with approval – or even take action on it. Having been deployed myself (though before I was married), it was easy for me to empathize with the soldier on the receiving end of Courtney's cruelty.
Reading Cassy's piece was a breath of fresh air. I kept saying things to myself like “Point Cassy!” as I was reading. At the end I had a smile on my face, for several reasons: Cassy's excellent takedown, the good fortune of Cassy's soldier, and the hope she gave me that the Cassy's in this world outnumber the Courtneys...
We're Watching the Dam Burst...
JoNova has a cool graphic at right, and a nice timeline of the bursting of the AGW dam...
Friday, February 12, 2010
Diary of a Snow Shoveler...
Via my mom, who is buried under the Snovalanche in Virginia:
Diary of a Snow ShovelerMakes me glad to be a Californian...
December 8 : 6:00 PM. Finally settled into our new home in Isle La Motte, VT. It started to snow. The first snow of the season and the wife and I took our cocktails and sat for hours by the window watching the huge soft flakes drift down from heaven. It looked like a Grandma Moses Print. So romantic we felt like newlyweds again. I love snow!
December 9 : We woke to a beautiful blanket of crystal white snow covering every inch of the landscape. What a fantastic sight! Can there be a more lovely place in the Whole World? Moving here was the best idea I've ever had. Shoveled for the first time in years, felt like a boy again. I did both our driveway and the sidewalks. This afternoon the snowplow came along and covered up the sidewalks and closed in the driveway, so I got to shovel again. What a perfect life.
December 12 : The sun has melted all our lovely snow. Such a disappointment. My neighbor tells me not to worry, we'll definitely have a white Christmas . No snow on Christmas would be awful! Bob says we'll have so much snow by the end of winter, that I'll never want to see snow again. I don't think that's possible. Bob is such a nice man, I'm glad he's our neighbor.
December 14 : Snow, lovely snow! 8" last night. The temperature dropped to -20. The cold makes everything sparkle so. The wind took my breath away, but I warmed up by shoveling the driveway and sidewalks. This is the life! The snowplow came back this afternoon and buried everything again. I didn't realize I would have to do quite this much shoveling, but I'll certainly get back in shape this way. I wish I wouldn't huff and puff so.
December 15 : 20 inches forecast. Sold my van and bought a 4x4 Blazer.Bought snow tires for the wife's car and two extra shovels. Stocked the freezer. The wife wants a wood stove in case the electricity goes out. I think that's silly. We aren't in Alaska, after all.
December 16 : Ice storm this morning. Fell on my ........ on the ice in the driveway putting down salt. Hurt like ....... The wife laughed for an hour which I think was very cruel.
December 17 : Still way below freezing. Roads are too icy to go anywhere. Electricity was off for five hours. I had to pile the blankets on to stay warm. Nothing to do but stare at the wife and try not to irritate her. Guess I should've bought a wood stove, but won't admit it to her. God I hate it when she's right. I can't believe I'm freezing to death in my own living room.
December 20 : Electricity's back on, but had another 14" of the damn stuff last night. More shoveling. Took all day. The d...... snowplow came by twice. Tried to find a neighbor kid to shovel, but they said they're too busy playing hockey. I think they're lying. Called the only hardware store around to see about buying a snow blower , and they're out. Might have another shipment in March. I think they're lying. Bob says I have to shovel or the city will have it done and bill me. I think he's lying.
December 22 : Bob was right about a white Christmas , because 13 more inches of the white stuff fell today, and it's so cold it probably won't melt 'til August. Took me 45 minutes to get all dressed up to go out to shovel, and then I had to pee. By the time I got undressed, pee and dressed again, I was too tired to shovel! Tried to hire Bob, who has a plow on his truck, for the rest of the winter; but he says he's too busy. I think the he is lying.
December 23 : Only 2" of snow today, and it warmed up to "0". The wife wanted me to decorate the front of the house this morning. What, is she nuts!!! Why didn't she tell me to do that a month ago? She says she did, but I think she's lying.
December 24 : 6". Snow packed so hard by snowplow, I broke the shovel. Thought I was having a heart attack. If I ever catch the son-of-a-gun who drives that snowplow, I'll drag him through the snow and beat him to death with my broken shovel. I know he hides around the corner and waits for me to finish shoveling and then he comes down the street at a100 miles an hour and throws snow all over everywhere I've just been! Tonight the wife wanted me to sing Christmas carols with her and open our presents, but I was too busy watching for the snowplow.
December 25 : Merry Christmas. 20 more inches of the slop tonight. Snowed in. The idea of shoveling makes my blood boil. God, I hate the snow! Then the snowplow driver came by asking for a donation and I hit him over the head with my shovel. The wife says I have a bad attitude. I think she's a fricking idiot. If I have to watch "It's a Wonderful Life" one more time, I'm going to stuff her into the microwave.
December 26 : Still snowed in. Why the hell did I ever move here? It was all HER idea. She's really getting on my nerves.
December 27 : Temperature dropped to -30, and the pipes froze. Plumber came after 14 hours of waiting for him; he only charged me $1,400 to replace all my pipes.
December 28 : Warmed up to above -50. Still snowed in. This is driving me crazy!!!!!
December 29 : 10 more inches. Bob says I have to shovel the roof or it could cave in. That's the silliest thing I ever heard. How dumb does he think I am?
December 30 : Roof caved in. I beat up the snow plow driver. He is now suing me for a million dollars; not for only the beating I gave him, but also for trying to shove the broken snow shovel up his butt. The wife went home to her mother. 9" predicted.
December 31 : I set fire to what's left of the house. No more shoveling. Called Realtor to sell the lot!!
January 8: Feel so good. I just love those little white pills they keep giving me. Why am I tied to the bed?
Thursday, February 11, 2010
ClimateGate: McIntyre is on the Case...
Steve McIntyre is all over the Michael Mann whitewash inquiry, and Nature magazine's call for a better way...
Newly-Released Photos of 9/11...
From the N.Y. police department. They're just as shocking now as they were over eight years ago...
ClimateGate: In the News...
The hits just keep on coming – and now, increasingly, they're being published in the U.S. mainstream media. In just this past week, I've seen “skeptic-friendly” articles in the New York Times (!), the Los Angeles Times, the San Diego Union-Tribune, the Washington Post, and on all the major news sites (Fox, CNN, MSNBC, etc.)...
Wednesday, February 10, 2010
Flying Pig Moment...
Steve Clemons, writing at the (notoriously, fatuously liberal) Puffington Host, said this:
If current trends continue, this once mesmerizing Camelot-ish operation will be be seen in the history books as the presidential administration that -- to distort slightly and inversely paraphrase Churchill -- never have so many talented people managed to achieve so little with so much.And he's talking about the Obama administration!
Technology History: Toilet Paper...
Did you know that toilet paper was invented in 1857 – and initially was plagued with splinters? Do you know what people did before 1857? Read all about it in this very humerous – and informative – post...
John Murtha: Best Obituary...
This exactly expresses my sentiments, but with writing skills I can't match...
Abraham Lincoln Said...
Some quotes from Abraham Lincoln, via my mom. They've not lost a whit of their truth in 150 years...
You cannot help the poor by destroying the rich.
You cannot strengthen the weak by weakening the strong.
You cannot bring about prosperity by discouraging thrift.
You cannot lift the wage earner up by pulling the wage payer down.
You cannot further the brotherhood of man by inciting class hatred.
You cannot build character and courage by taking away people's initiative and independence.
You cannot help people permanently by doing for them, what they could and should do for themselves.
A Climate Skeptic Defends Amateur Science...
Interesting post. It contains my quote of the day:
Making a distinction between professional and amateur in science is artificial: what matters is the 'what' of science not the 'who'.
Subversive Activities Registration Act...
The state of South Carolina has a new law on the books: the Subversive Activities Registration Act. Basically it says that if in any way you support the notion of violent overthrow of the government at any level (even dog catcher), you must register with the state. There's a $5 filing fee. And the punishment for failure to register is pretty stiff: fines of up to $25,000 and imprisonment for up to 10 years.
I hope – really, I hope – that the South Carolina legislature is not so naive as to believe that such a law will coerce hardened terrorists into registering themselves. I'm guessing that what they were really after was a “hook” to let them file criminal charges against someone that law enforcement discovered who was engaged in such activities.
But here's the problem: the language in the statute is so vague, so open-ended, that almost anybody could be ensnared by it. Just think: have you ever jokingly said something like this: that we'd be better off if a moderate sized metorite smashed the Capitol while both houses were in session? That'd do it – you're a criminal under this statute (unless you had actually registered!), and you might be going to jail.
This just begs for a Constitutional challenge on first amendment grounds...
I hope – really, I hope – that the South Carolina legislature is not so naive as to believe that such a law will coerce hardened terrorists into registering themselves. I'm guessing that what they were really after was a “hook” to let them file criminal charges against someone that law enforcement discovered who was engaged in such activities.
But here's the problem: the language in the statute is so vague, so open-ended, that almost anybody could be ensnared by it. Just think: have you ever jokingly said something like this: that we'd be better off if a moderate sized metorite smashed the Capitol while both houses were in session? That'd do it – you're a criminal under this statute (unless you had actually registered!), and you might be going to jail.
This just begs for a Constitutional challenge on first amendment grounds...
Rain...
Yesterday afternoon and (especially) last night, we got a total of just under one inch (23 mm) of rain. That brings the storm total to 2.32 inches (59 mm). The forecast for today has a 40% chance of rain through noon (though it doesn't look like it outside), so we might even get a little more.The total rain for the year right now stands at 8.66 inches (220 mm) – just about at the 100 year average. And we're not quite done with the rainy season yet!
Tuesday, February 9, 2010
Retro-Geek: Acoustic Coupled Modem...
Demonstrating an early 300-baud acoustic-coupled modem. When I first started messing around with microcomputers in the mid-1970s, one of my first acquisitions was an acoustic-coupled modem (a much later model than this one). Their 300-baud speed was considered state-of-the-art, and I remember reading predicitions that the top-end theoretical speed was in the neighborhood of 700 baud (which a later direct-coupled modem from a company called PMMI actually acheived). Here's the demonstration:
Pancreatic Cancer Linked to Soft Drinks?
One good friend and several of my acquaintances have succumbed to pancreatic cancer. It's one of the nastiest, least survivable types. This study hints that the incidence of pancreatic cancer is higher for people who regularly drink even moderate amounts of soda – most likely because of its sugar content.
Given the huge quantities of soda consumed in this country (and, I presume, worldwide), this is not good news...
Given the huge quantities of soda consumed in this country (and, I presume, worldwide), this is not good news...
Less Can Be More...
Paul Buchheit (GMail creator) on product design and geek reaction to the iPad. Thought-provoking stuff that resonates with me...
Monday, February 8, 2010
There's a Lot of BS Out There, Folks...
And American Express is doing their part to maintain the high levels of bullshit in our environment. Here's an email from American Express explaining why they only allow letters in their passwords (no numbers, punctuation, or other “special characters”). It's the purest kind of bullshit: information that is the exact inverse of the truth.
Sheesh, Amex, get your freaking act together!
Sheesh, Amex, get your freaking act together!
Use ECC RAM!
My colleagues often make fun of me because I shut down and restart my laptop several times a day. There are several reasons I do this, but one of them is to avoid accumulated memory (RAM) errors due to cosmic rays. These errors occur more frequently than most people think if your computer doesn't use error correcting (ECC) RAM (and most laptops do not). Here's an article that explains why this is true, and also gives specific estimates about the frequency of these errors.
Bottom line: I'm going continue the behavior that I'm mocked for...
Bottom line: I'm going continue the behavior that I'm mocked for...
New Record for Clock Accuracy...
This new clock is accurate to within one second in 3.7 billion years, or (equivalently) one nanosecond in 3.7 years. When I first started working in electronics, we thought a clock that was stable to within one millisecond per day was pretty hot stuff. This new clock is over a billion times more stable...
Special Delivery...
Michael Yon is back in Afghanistan, and has filed his first report of this trip. It's all about the Air Force crews who resupply the remote outposts in Afghanistan (of which there are many) – and, typical of Yon's work, it's full of evocative photos and detailed information. He flew with one resupply mission and documents the whole thing...
Sunday, February 7, 2010
ClimateGate: New Developments...
The hits just keep on comin':
Yet another egregious error in the IPCC report. This time it turns out that their claim of AGW-caused 50% reduction in African agricultural production is not based on science at all.
In a good read, Walter Russell Mead discusses why climate science is in trouble. And of all places, Canada's uber-liberal Globe and Mail publishes a skeptic-friendly piece by Margaret Wente on the great global warming collapse.
Yet another egregious error in the IPCC report. This time it turns out that their claim of AGW-caused 50% reduction in African agricultural production is not based on science at all.
In a good read, Walter Russell Mead discusses why climate science is in trouble. And of all places, Canada's uber-liberal Globe and Mail publishes a skeptic-friendly piece by Margaret Wente on the great global warming collapse.
Color Photos from 1909 - 1915...
Fascinating collection of early color photography in Russia, by Sergei Mikhailovich Prokudin-Gorskii. Click to enlarge the example at right.
The Benefits of Snowstorms...
From TJIC, too short and too monolithic to excerpt:
As he would say: Har!Apparently the seat of the national government is snowed in and everone is trapped in their houses.
I predict that with government officials unable to govern and convene press conferences, nationwide the economy will be stable and mass layoffs will be put on hold.
…at least until the plows get out there and let the politicians and bureaucrats back into their offices.
Obama Likes Himself Pretty Well, Doesn't He?
NeoNeocon, who has some knowledge in the field, is quite disturbed by Obama's overt narcissism. Her last paragraph chills me:
I’m not saying it will come to pass in exactly that way, and that Obama will declare himself to be a deity. In fact, I’ll even go on record as saying he won’t. Nevertheless, something is very wrong with this man, and it is growing stronger every day.
Spending $8.57 to save $1...
Gwynnie at Maggie's Farm does the math on the “Cash for Clunkers” program. It ain't pretty.
Sarah Palin's Speech...
I watched Sarah Palin's Tea Party Convention keynote this morning on YouTube. Awesome speech, and chock full of points I agree with. Some nice comedic moments, too, like her one-liner aimed squarely at Obama: “How's that hopey-changey thing workin' out?” There was relatively little that I flat out disagreed with, or that grated. In particular, the overt religious ideology that permeated her book was absent.
The woman can sure give a speech. I'll take her folksy, common-sense style over Obama's supposed oratory magnificence any day of the week.
Could I support her in a run for President? Possibly, though I don't think it's likely. It's impossible to predict now what's going to happen in 2012, though one scenario being frequently batted around is an Obama vs. Palin matchup. What would I do then? Most likely I'd be torn between sitting out the election (for lack of a candidate I believed in) or voting for Palin as a way of saying “No more Obama!”
Watching her give this speech gave me another thought, though: it seems at least possible that Sarah Palin will emerge as the leader (or figurehead) of a political movement whose aggregate capability was attractive to me. It would be, then, more like a team of people running rather than just Sarah Palin. If that turned out to be the case, I'd find a vote for Palin much less troubling.
One prediction I think is a safe one: Sarah Palin will somehow be involved in the 2012 presidential race (even if not as a candidate), and her presence will make the race much more interesting – and probably more about the issues that I care about than otherwise...
The woman can sure give a speech. I'll take her folksy, common-sense style over Obama's supposed oratory magnificence any day of the week.
Could I support her in a run for President? Possibly, though I don't think it's likely. It's impossible to predict now what's going to happen in 2012, though one scenario being frequently batted around is an Obama vs. Palin matchup. What would I do then? Most likely I'd be torn between sitting out the election (for lack of a candidate I believed in) or voting for Palin as a way of saying “No more Obama!”
Watching her give this speech gave me another thought, though: it seems at least possible that Sarah Palin will emerge as the leader (or figurehead) of a political movement whose aggregate capability was attractive to me. It would be, then, more like a team of people running rather than just Sarah Palin. If that turned out to be the case, I'd find a vote for Palin much less troubling.
One prediction I think is a safe one: Sarah Palin will somehow be involved in the 2012 presidential race (even if not as a candidate), and her presence will make the race much more interesting – and probably more about the issues that I care about than otherwise...
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