Thursday, March 25, 2010

Mysterious Incident in Lawson Valley...

Update: False alarm:
Sheriff's investigators say a 12-year-old boy who claimed he had been kidnapped Tuesday night in Jamul fabricated the story.

The boy told deputies he made it up because he was out after dark and thought he would get in trouble, said sheriff's Sgt. Jeff Maxin.

Deputies interviewed registered sex offenders in the area after the boy told them that a tattooed man driving a offroad-type truck had pulled him into the truck and drove him for about a mile.

The boy showed deputies injuries on his left shoulder and left arm he said he got when the man grabbed him and pulled him into the truck.

Investigators determined that the boy's scratches and bruises were self inflicted.

Original Post: 

Around 8 pm on Tuesday night, according to the unamed victim (a 12 year old boy is all we know), a very strange incident occurred very close to our home.  I didn't find out about it until the first news reports yesterday.  I've still only been able to find three very similar news reports (here, here, and here) and there's very little information in them.  I've polled my neighbors, heard from more of them, and called the police and sheriff, all to no avail – nobody's saying anything.

The boy's story is strange but very detailed; I'd call it credible by not proven.  If it's true, it's the kind of crime that we don't expect to see out in this neck of the woods – partly because it's common knowledge that most of the citizenry out here is well-armed.  So anything that occurs like this sets off all sorts of alarm bells, where back in the city it might not even make the news.

If any of my readers know more, I'd really appreciate an update that I can share with the other denizens of our peaceful little valley...

CO2 Modeling...

Here's an interesting paper about CO2 modeling.  The assumption of exponential growth of CO2 in the climate models underpins the predictions of catastrophic anthropogenic global warming, so it's vital for those models to get it right.  This paper points out something very interesting: that the three commonly discussed models of CO2 in the atmosphere cannot be distinguished from the data available.  Only one of these models (the exponential growth model) has catastrophic implications.  Assuming the paper is correct, this calls into question the fundamental basis of the IPCC's predictions.

A more commonsensical calling into question is this: scientists cannot predict with any degree of success the weather even for the next 30 days.  It's not even just the detailed predictions that are wrong, it's also broad trends (for example, just last October, the British Meteorology Office was predicting a broadly warmer-than-usual winter for all of Europe.  Er...not so much; instead this winter broke all sorts of records for cold).  So if scientists can't predict the next 30 days, even in broad strokes, what on earth makes us think they can predict then next 100 years or more?