When's the Last Time...

When's the last time you heard a religious leader calling on devout women to go have sex with soldiers to improve their morale?

Israel Shoots Down an Unidentified Drone...

This drone almost had to be Iranian (either directly or through their proxy Hezbollah).  In any case, the Israeli radar and defense system was more than up to the task of dispatching this thing.  Israeli Defense Force (IDF) official video below, the full (public) story here.

Iran Sanctions Appear to be Working...

Iran's currency is in hyper-inflation.  Bad for Iran's citizens, but worse for Iran's addled government...

Israel Must Be Eliminated...

That headline, of course, is taken from Ahmadinejad's speech yesterday to the United Nation's General Assembly – that most disgusting and corrupt waste of space, oxygen, and energy on the planet.

The revolutionary government of Iran in general, and its president Ahmadinejad in particular, remind me very strongly of Hitler and Nazi Germany just before the onset of WWII.  Their shared hatred of Jews isn't even the main point of correlation there (though it is both striking and curious).  The correlation that concerns me most is how those two countries were able to accumuate frightening power that represents an existential threat to world peace, all while the rest of the world did nothing effective about it.

Today's Wall Street Journal ($) contains two interesting commentary pieces on exactly this subject (here and here).

But what we really need, of course, is a credible counterpoint to Iran.  Not just words, which is really the only thing the world has on offer at the moment.  We need credible actions.  That is, of course, exactly what the world needed before Hitler started invading other countries.  Never happened.  It probably won't happen now, either.  There is one big difference between Hitler and Ahmadinejad, though: the latter will likely soon have nuclear weapons to threaten us with.

Charming.

Some Clear Thinking on Iran...

In today's Wall Street Journal, this article by Frederick Kagan and Maseh Zarif.  The lead:

Americans are being played for fools by Iran—and fooling themselves. There is no case to be made that Iran is not pursuing a nuclear weapons capability. There is no evidence that Iran's decision-makers are willing to stop the nuclear program in exchange for lifting sanctions or anything else. The International Atomic Energy Agency reported on Friday that it has made no progress in its negotiations with Iran and that Iran continues to accelerate its enrichment operations, which are in violation of U.N. Security Council resolutions and agreements with the IAEA.

Yet the policy discussion in the U.S. is confused. Former Ambassador Dennis Ross writes that the Iranians are ready for talks. Anonymous administration officials refer to one of the most dangerous Iranian nuclear installations, Fordow, outside the city of Qom, as "a Potemkin facility." The media are full of comparisons to Iraq in 2003, when suspicions that Iraq was pursuing a covert nuclear program led to war.

People are conflating intelligence assessment with policy recommendation. The prospect of war with Iran is so distasteful that people are desperate to persuade themselves that the problem is not serious.

I'm getting darned tired of having my government be played for a fool – though, given the individuals who comprise the current administration, that's probably inevitable...

Read the whole thing...

What? We Haven't Done This Already?

That's my reaction to this news...

Iranian Plane Crash...

A mid-air crash a couple years ago took out their only AWACS-capable aircraft.  This clip, apparently taken from a nearby tanker aircraft, captures the aftermath...

Hopeful Signs in Iran?

Interesting piece by Michael Ledeen in today's WSJ.  I sure hope he's right...

The Point of No Return...

An outstanding long article by Jeffrey Goldberg in Atlantic on the situation in the Middle East, mainly Iran vs. Israel.  There's far too much good stuff there to excerpt meaningfully, but here's a small sample:

Rahm Emanuel suggested that the administration is trying to thread a needle: providing “unshakeable” support for Israel; protecting it from the consequences of an Iranian nuclear bomb; but pushing it toward compromise with the Palestinians. Emanuel, in our meeting, disputed that Israel is incapable of moving forward on the peace process so long as Iran looms as an existential threat. And he drafted the past six Israeli prime ministers—including Netanyahu, who during his first term in the late 1990s, to his father’s chagrin, compromised with the Palestinians—to buttress his case. “Rabin, Peres, Netanyahu, Barak, Sharon, Olmert—every one of them pursued some form of a negotiated settlement, which would have been in Israel’s own strategic interest,” he said. “There have been plenty of other threats while successive Israeli governments have pursued a peace process. There is no doubt that Iran is a major threat, but they didn’t just flip the switch on [the nuclear program] a year ago.”

Emanuel had one more message to deliver: for the most practical of reasons, Israel should consider carefully whether a military strike would be worth the trouble it would unleash. “I’m not sure that given the time line, whatever the time line is, that whatever they did, they wouldn’t stop” the nuclear program, he said. “They would be postponing.”

It was then that I realized that, on some subjects, the Israelis and Americans are still talking past each other. The Americans consider a temporary postponement of Iran’s nuclear program to be of dubious value. The Israelis don’t. “When Menachem Begin bombed Osirak [in Iraq], he had been told that his actions would set back the Iraqis one year,” one cabinet minister told me. “He did it anyway.”

Iranian Cover of a Pink Floyd Tune...

And it ain't half bad, either.  Very political message...

Bomb the Mullahs!

The United Arab Emirates' ambassador to the U.S. is saying publicly that the U.A.E. would support a preemptive strike on Iran's nuclear capability.  Rumors have been swirling for months that many Arab countries were privately supporting such a move, and even that some (particularly Saudi Arabia) were covertly supporting an Israeli strike.

To anyone reasonably well informed about the Middle East, this isn't really very surprising – the Persians (Iranians) and Arabs have been at each other's throats for centuries.  To any Arab, the notion of the Persians obtaining the strategic advantage of a nuclear weapon would be all but unthinkable – an existential threat much like the threat that they themselves present to Israel...

Why'd They Do That?

Interesting theory about why Iran recently moved their stocks of enriched uranium from deep, protected underground storage to an open, above-ground area...

Austin Bay on Obama and Iran...

StrategyPage posted an article yesterday by Austin Bay analyzing the Obama administration's reactions to the Iranian nuclear weapons development program.  Warning: the article is very badly formatted, with many words run together.  THis makes it a little difficult to read, but it's worth it.  As always, Bay has interesting insights into events in this part of the world...

Israel Versus Iran: Yes!

Iran (repeatedly) threatens to blow Israel off the map.

Iran is not-so-covertly developing nuclear weapons, and is close to achieving that goal.

Israel has nukes, and delivery capability, but surely wouldn't want to use them except in extreme circumstances.

Israel has the most powerful air force in the Middle East, and surely could reach Iran – but probably at great cost to her airmen, and with great risk to mission success.

The rest of the world is doing essentially nothing to defuse this situation.  China and Russia are blocking all attempts to use less-than-military pressure, and Europe isn't too excited about it, either – especially Germany and France, who are major trading partners with Iran.

What's a threatened Israel to do?

Develop a fleet of unmanned aircraft with the range to strike Iran and with the payload capacity to carry either bunker-busters or nukes.

Yes!

Could Israel Attack Iran on Her Own?

Retired Israeli General Dan Halutz has some doubts...

Iran...

Charles Krauthammer on the year of living fecklessly, a review of what Obama has done wrong on Iran.

Reading this, I can't help thinking how much better it would be have an eyes-wide-open realist like Krauthammer determining our Iranian strategy, rather than Obama and his “engagement” policy that's so reminiscent of Chamberlain.

On the other hand, the New York Times yesterday published a commentary piece that essentially said it's time to bomb the crap out of Iranian nuclear facilities.  That's about as expected (coming from the NYT) as a clean-shaven Santa.  Obama's left reacted in a tiredly predictable way, insisting that military action can't work and only engagement can.  The lessons of history apparently really can't be learned...

Meanwhile, as Krauthammer points out, Iran is another year closer to having the bomb that absolutely everyone knows they're trying so hard to make.  If they obtain that bomb, the political dynamics of the Middle East will be changed in ways that are to the detriment of every other Middle Eastern nation, and they all know it.  So my bet is that the most militarily capable nation in the Middle East (Israel) will mount the attack that the U.S. won't make – and that they'll be covertly aided by some countries we ordinarily think of as Israel's enemies.  Candidates are Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq...

Quote of the Day III...

This time from Escort81, posting at TigerHawk, and talking about the latest failure of talks with Tehran to accomplish anything at all:

This is turning into a high-stakes real-life version of the movie Groundhog Day, except I don't think anyone gets to sleep with Andie MacDowell at the end.

Then there's the old joke, "Why do you keep hitting yourself in the head with a hammer like that?"

"Because it feels so good when I stop."

The difference being, I am not sure talks ever stop, even (or especially) after Iran tests its first nuclear weapon.

Sober up, “diplomats”, will ya?

A Friend's Plea...

From a couple we know who spends a lot of time “cruising” on their boats:

Ellen & I are preparing to return to Sirius Endeavour to continue our adventures.  This past summer we had a fabulous time aboard Emerald Rose at the North end of Vancouver Island. 

But the purpose of this note is to make a special request to fellow cruisers and friends.  72 days ago, my cousin, Josh, was on a hike in the East of Iraq when he strayed onto the Iranian border and was arrested and imprisoned along with two friends.  He remains today in an Iranian prison apparently in solitary confinement and without any way to communicate with his parents.  He is the latest pawn the Iranians are using for political gain. 

Ellen and I have known Josh since he was a little boy and like me he graduated from the University of California at Berkeley and loves adventure.  He is an outdoorsman and hiker like his older brother and my nephew Alexander just like I was until I switched to cruising in boats.  It runs in the family.

A website: freethehikers.org has been created to bring his story to the attention of the world in the hope that sufficient pressure can be brought to bear to release him and his two friends from false and unjust imprisonment.  If you would be so kind as to 1. review this website www.freethehikers.org and click on the button at the top: TAKE ACTION and then click to sign an electronic petition for his release and 2. email his plight to others you know that they might also take a step in the direction of their release; I would be greatly pleased. 

I would like to think that as cruisers and adventurers, we are all outraged by Iran's behavior, specially when their Koran specifically states that travelers are to be treated with respect and kindness, not malevolent injustice. 

Thank you for your consideration,
don & ellen

We've been there and done that.  Won't you?

Little Israel Is Still Leading the Way...

As Uri Dromi points out:

A uranium enrichment facility nobody knew of suddenly emerges in the sacred city of Qom, Iran launches missiles that can threaten not only U.S. targets in the Persian gulf, but also Israel and southern Europe, and now the world panics.

Surprised? Not if you're an Israeli. For years we have been sounding the alarm, only to be told to stop crying wolf. Now we are asked to lie low and let the responsible leaders of the world take care of the situation.

It must be tremendously frustrating for many Israelis to watch obvious world-threatening problems develop – while most of the world ignores them.  Repeatedly the Israelis have acted when other nations would not or could not, to the benefit of us all.  The most recent example is their discovery and destruction of a nuclear facility in Syria.

My cynical bet is that the world will do nothing effective to stop Iran before Israel feels the need to take unilateral action.  Past experience suggests that when they do, the action will be effective – and they'll be publicly denounced by the entire world, while private nearly all countries will breath a huge sigh of relief.

We're lucky the Israelis are here to do the dirty work for those – like us – don't have the balls to do it themselves...

What Obama Didn't Do...

Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper, yesterday:

Ahmadinejad's declarations, particularly recently, particularly...not just the detention of Canadian citizens, not just the flagrant abuse of human rights, but his recent declarations - just disgraceful, insulting declarations denying the holocaust - there is no way I'm going to permit any official of the Government of Canada to be present and give any legitimacy to remarks by a leader like that.

President Ahmadinejad has said things, particularly about the state of Israel, the Jewish people, and the holocaust, that are absolutely repugnant. It is unfitting that somebody like that would be giving those kind of remarks before the United Nations General Assembly. Canada does not want to be equivocal at all in terms of our view on that; we find it disgraceful, unacceptable, and we're going to be absolutely clear on that. There are other things that bother us as well beyond these repugnant comments; also, obviously, the crackdown in Iran on all kinds, any kind of legitimate dissent; the fiasco around the elections is quite disturbing. As well, the holding of a Canadian journalist - Mr. Bahari, I think it is - without charge continues to be unacceptable (and) we continue to demand his release. But as I say, there are times when things are being said in this world that it is important that countries that have a moral compass stand up and make their views known, and our absence there will speak volumes about how Canada feels about the declarations of President Ahmadinejad.

No such condemnation passed Obama's lips – only words of conciliation and appeasement.

Later yesterday, the Canadian Foreign Minister walked out of Ahmadinejad's U.N. speech.

The U.S. delegation sat and listened.

I'm damned proud of the Canadians today...