Sunday, February 20, 2005

Negotiated peace with Baathists?

Time reports that multiple back-channel contacts are occurring, with the aim of both sides being a negotiated peace.

The consensus of the folks I've read seems to be that the bulk of the Iraqi insurgents fall into just two categories: they are either the former elite in Sadaam's reign (Baathist Sunnis), or they are al-Qaeda followers of al-Zarqawi. The Baathist's clearly have good reasons to settle down: they are Iraqis in their own country, and they see their insurgency failing with the obvious success of the recent elections. There have been numerous press reports of Sunnis admitting that their voluntary non-participation in the election was a huge mistake.

Suppose for the moment that the negotiations succeed (there are numerous obstacles). What then? Will this have a significant impact on al-Zarqawi et al? I'd sure like to think so, but I don't have much to go on about the two groups' interdepencies, or lack thereof.

Time has this to say about what the Baathist insurgents are asking for at the negotiating table:

What do the insurgents want? Top insurgent field commanders and negotiators informed TIME that the rebels have told diplomats and military officers that they support a secular democracy in Iraq but resent the prospect of a government run by exiles who fled to Iran and the West during Saddam's regime. The insurgents also seek a guaranteed timetable for U.S. troop withdrawal, a demand the U.S. refuses. But there are some hints of compromise: insurgent negotiators have told their U.S. counterparts they would accept a U.N. peacekeeping force as the U.S. troop presence recedes. Insurgent representative Abu Mohammed says the nationalists would even tolerate U.S. bases on Iraqi soil. "We don't mind if the invader becomes a guest," he says, suggesting a situation akin to the U.S. military presence in Germany and Japan.

This all sounds much more reasonable than I would have expected, and therefore I can't help but feel hopeful about it. A negotiated peace, if it actually held, can't possibly be bad news.

A little rain

We've had nearly ten inches of rain since January 1st, an amount that comes close to setting a record for all of recorded history. This year is already in the top ten for rainfall records, and there's no sign of it stopping.

Those of you who live where water falls out of the sky with some regularity (as in New Jersey, where I grew up) may be hard-pressed to understand how profoundly wonderful this rain is for us desert rats. In late 2003, the horrific wildfires in San Diego County made it to within a couple of miles of our house. Those fires were fed by the tinder-dry chapparal wood (both the abundant dead brush and the living plants). Those plants were so dry because we've had six years of terrible drought. This rain is soaking the chapparal -- you couldn't set it on fire if you tried!

Of course there were other major contributing factors to those fires, most especially the fact that we humans have been putting all the fires out for 50+ years, and the fuel load had accumulated way beyond anything Mother Nature would have permitted. In all previous history, random wildfires keep the fuel load to a sane level.

The wonderful, wonderful rains have turned our hills emerald green. Lush mosses have erupted on every shaded rock. Grass is growing exuberantly where just a couple of months ago was only reddish, dusty dirt. New growth is already popping on many plants, fooled into sprouting early by the rain and warmer-than-usual weather. And birds we haven't seen since the drought began (such as pine siskins) are back.

So don't believe the news reports that make Southern California look like it just got tsunamied. That picture is just about as accurate as the media's prediction that John Kerry would win. Sure, there are some people that have been hurt or killed by storm-related events -- but not many. The vast majority of us are staring out the window at the gentle rain with nothing but good cheer and thankfulness in our thoughts...

Caution: Puns!

Two vultures boarded a plane, each carrying two raccoons. The stewardess stops them and says "Sorry sir, only one carrion per passenger.

NASA recently sent a number of Holsteins into orbit for experimental purposes. They called it the herd shot round the world.

Two boll weevils grew up in N Carolina. One took off to Hollywood and became a rich star. The other stayed in Carolina and never amounted to much-and naturally became known as the lesser of two weevils.

Two Eskimos in a kayak were chilly, so they started a fire, which sank the craft, proving the old adage you can't have your kayak and heat it too.

A three-legged dog walks into an old west saloon, slides up to the bar and announces "I'm looking for the man who shot my paw."

Did you hear about the Buddhist who went to the dentist, and refused to take Novocain? He wanted to transcend dental medication.

A group of chess enthusiasts checked into a hotel, and met in the lobby where they were discussing their recent victories in chess tournaments. The hotel manager came out of the office after an hour, and asked them to disperse. He couldn't stand chess nuts boasting in an open foyer.

A women has identical twins, gives them up for adoption. One goes to an Egyptian family and is named "Ahmal" The other is sent to a Spanish family and is named "Juan". Years later, Juan sends his birth mother a picture of himself. Upon receiving the picture, she tells her husband she wishesshe also had a picture of Ahmal. He replies, "But dear! They're twins!! If you've seen Juan, you've see Ahmal!"

A group of friars opened a florist shop to help with their belfry payments. Everyone liked to buy flowers from the Men of God, so their business flourished. A rival florist became upset that his business was suffering because people felt compelled to buy from the Friars, so he askedthe Friars to cut back hours or close down! The Friars refused. The florist went to them and begged that they shut down. Again they refused. So the florist then hired Hugh McTaggert, the biggest meanest thug in town. He wentto the Friars' shop, beat them up, destroyed their flowers, trashed their shop, and said that if they didn't close, he'd be back. Well, totally terrified, the Friars closed up shop and hid in their rooms. This proved that Hugh, and only Hugh, can prevent florist friars.

Mahatma Gandhi, as you know, walked barefoot his whole life, which created an impressive set of calluses on his feet. He also ate very little, which made him frail, and with his odd diet, he suffered from very bad breath. This made him a super-callused fragile mystic hexed by halitosis.

And finally... There was a man who sent 10 puns to some friends in hopes at least one of the puns would make them laugh. Unfortunately, no pun in ten did.

Bush offers to buy Russia, Europe

Scott Ott at ScrappleFace is at it again, with this notion of Bush's mission.