Wednesday, November 9, 2016

President-elect Trump...

President-elect Trump...  Like so many others, we stayed up late last night to see the election results.  They were pretty much my worst-case scenario.  Here's the plausible scenarios I'd come up with (pre-election) for an election outcome, ranked from my favorite to my least favorite:
  • Neither Trump nor Clinton made it to 270 electoral votes, Evan McMullin takes Utah (and it's electoral votes) and the election goes to the House where McMullin is the compromise candidate.  In this scenario it doesn't matter who controls the House or the Senate.  This was a low probability outcome, but not implausible.
  • Hillary wins the presidency, but Republicans had firm control of both the Senate and the House.  This was a recipe for total gridlock, which means no giant entitlement programs would (hopefully!) be enacted, and also no giant new tax scheme.
  • Hillary wins the presidency, the Democrats take the Senate, and the Republicans hold the House.  This is still gridlock city, but riskier.
  • Trump wins the presidency, the Democrats take the Senate, and the Republicans hold the house.  This is very similar to the preceding bullet in terms of legislative risk.
  • Trump wins the presidency, and the Republicans had firm control of both the Senate and the House.  This is a balance that could actually get things done, which is ... terrifying, given Trumps public policy pronouncements.
You may, if you're paying attention, note that nowhere in my scenarios did I account for Supreme Court justice nominations.  That's mainly because I'm really uncertain what kind of justices Trump would nominate.  I would be equally unsurprised if he nominated another Clarence Thomas or another Ruth Ginsburg.

So we ended up with my last and least-favorite scenario.  Prior to last night, with only the polling to go on, this seemed nearly as unlikely as the first bullet – and yet, here we are.  My biggest fear at the moment is that Trump will actually follow through with his anti-free-trade babble, get it through the Congress, and cause significant economic damage in the process.  My biggest hopes are that he does follow through with a repeal of ObamaCare, and that he nominates originalist Supreme Court justices.

Both Trump and Clinton gave exemplary, calm speeches after the election.  It would be oh-so-pleasant if this spirit prevailed from now on, but I expect it to end around, oh, noon today.

I think my alcohol consumption is quite likely to go up over the next four years...

Paradise ponders...

Paradise ponders...  Yesterday was an absolutely crazy day around here.  The roofer/siding guys showed up and worked all day; they're going to finish today on the mud room.  The drywall guys showed up and finished the job (beautifully!) on the mud room and sun room.  Local friends showed up to pick up one of our old doors and a built-in ironing board; both of them are going to be used in their home (I love seeing the replaced bits of our home help someone else!).  Our builders also showed up, albeit briefly: they 6x6 posts they need for the next step on our deck had to be special ordered.  None of us anticipated that 6x6s are no longer often used.

I spent much of my day cleaning the sun room.  I had done this once before, prior to the drywall guys doing their job.  The amount of dust, dirt, and debris they created is nearly beyond belief. :)  I also cleaned the casements for the basement windows, which I had not done since the foundation for the sun room was poured.  It was a good five hours of work to clean that little room well.

This morning I started the final electrical work in the sun room.  I've wired the two duplex outlets (and they work!); next up is the lighting and switches for it.  I'll be done with that in a few hours.  On Friday the tile contractors will be here to install cement board and tile in the sun room, and tile in the mud room.  Painters will be here early next week.  We're getting close to the point where we can actually use those rooms.  Woo hoo!