Monday, November 30, 2009

ClimateGate: Tab Dump...

Time to go to work, but here are seven more articles or posts on ClimateGate that I recommend for your education: here, here, here, here, here, here, and here.

I don't think this genie is going back in the bottle...

ClimateGate: Monkton Asks for Criminal Prosecution...

ClimateGate: Michael Ramirez

Unemployment Index...

Google's index of unemployment-related searches just took a nosedive, falling from the highest levels of the year to the lowest levels in the span of a couple of weeks. I have no idea what would account for this, nor do I have any idea whether we should think of this as an optimistic omen. It will be interesting to watch this over the next few weeks to see if this was a leading indicator of something we'll see later in government statistics...

ClimateGate: Programmers React...

The trove of software code contained in the CRU hacker data dump has now had enough time to be analyzed by a good number of completely independent programmers, myself included.  You may recall that one of my reactions was to be appalled at the poor quality of the code.

I was not alone:
Up to this point, it was difficult to challenge the conclusions of AGW-believing climate scientists because most geeks don't have much expertise in climatology. We tend to consider ourselves scientists and to give other scientists in other areas of expertise the benefit of the doubt. Without a great deal of experience in climatology, it's hard for a geek to justify spending much time questioning the modes and methods of professional climate researchers.

However, the email leak has changed all this. Along with a hoard of emails, some source code for the computer climate models was also hacked and released to the public -- and the source code is an unusable mess. It doesn't take expertise in climatology to look at source code and determine that the code is garbage. There are many more geeks with software expertise than with climate expertise, and the geek community will go through every line of code and likely conclude that the computer models are so flawed that any conclusions drawn on them are without merit.

Despite the liberal tendencies of many geeks, I believe that the source code evidence will be insurmountable for most. Some will continue to cling to AGW because of a devotion to left-wing politics, but the majority of geeks will abandon their belief, and that abandonment by geeks will truly spell the end for AGW.

Read the whole thing here and here.

Sunday, November 29, 2009

There's Snow in Them Thar Hills!

Above about 5,000 feet (1,700 meters) altitude in our local mountains, yesterday's rainstorm was a snow storm.  We drove up this morning, taking a little-used single-lane paved road from just south of Pine Valley up alongside Noble Canyon to the area just north of Laguna Peak.  Often this road is closed when there's snow on the ground, but today the gates were still open and we had a lovely drive.

Miki, our youngest field spaniel, came along with us.  He's seen snow before, but only a couple of times; it's still a novelty to him.  We stopped near the high point of the road and had a delightful romp in the snow with Miki (photos below).  Toward the end, I throw a few snowballs at him when he wasn't looking – it took him five snowballs to figure out that I was doing it!


CRU Does a U-Turn, is Releasing Climate Data...

For years now, the CRU has had a policy of keeping secret the key data needed to verify AGW.  Despite severe criticism even from within the scientific community (and even more from outside), they held onto this policy.  Of course this policy raised eyebrows and doubts about the rigor of their work.

In the wake of the ClimateGate leaks, the CRU has now reversed course, and says it will release all data (other than what they've lost – see earlier post) just as soon as they get releases from all involved. 

Their somewhat self-serving announcement is here.  As you're reading it, remember that this crowd is desperately trying to portray their innocence...

Given their past behavior, I'm a bit skeptical that the data will actually end up being public.  We'll see...

Mann to be Investigated...

Professor Michael Mann (of “hockey stick” temperature graph fame) is being investigated by his employer, Pennsylvania State University. 

We shouldn't read too much into this.  Launching an investigation is pretty much a reflexive action of bureaucracies; they're a time-honored way of deflecting blame from those in charge.  Once we see the results of the investigation, we'll know whether this was an exercise in obfuscation or a genuine inquiry...

ClimateGate: Data Dump...

In today's London Times:
SCIENTISTS at the University of East Anglia (UEA) have admitted throwing away much of the raw temperature data on which their predictions of global warming are based.

It means that other academics are not able to check basic calculations said to show a long-term rise in temperature over the past 150 years.

The UEA’s Climatic Research Unit (CRU) was forced to reveal the loss following requests for the data under Freedom of Information legislation.

The data were gathered from weather stations around the world and then adjusted to take account of variables in the way they were collected. The revised figures were kept, but the originals — stored on paper and magnetic tape — were dumped to save space when the CRU moved to a new building.

Mistakes happen, and this fact by itself doesn't really prove anything.  But it is mighty suspicious looking when combined with all the other attempts at hiding and obfuscation employed by the CRU gang.

The article goes on to say that the loss of this data means that other scientists can't check the CRU's work.  That's not quite true – the lost data can be regenerated by re-doing the studies.  This will be time-consuming and expensive, but it's practically free by comparison to the climate change mitigations being considered based on conclusions drawn from the data.  Re-doing the studies seems like a no-brainer...

Storm's Over...

But not before it dumped a total of 1.06 inches (about 26 mm) of rain on us!  This morning it's clear and sunny, and the chaparral is full of bright, saturated colors on the dust-free leaves in the bright sunlight.  El Cajon mountain was lit up with the early morning sun as we looked out our front windows at daybreak. 

Winter in Lawson Valley has arrived...

Saturday, November 28, 2009

Rain and Hail, Oh My!

It's 11 am here, and we've already had nearly three quarters of an inch (about 18 mm) of rain.  Well, actually, for the past half hour or so it's been a mixture of rain and hail.  The individual pieces of hail are about the size of a kernel of corn, but there are so many of them that they're collecting into piles that look an awful lot like snowfall.  The air temperature is still well above freezing, so the hail is melting very quickly.

Jeez, it feels good to have this most affirmative end to the fire season!

A few photos from our patio (taken with a crummy cell phone camera):

It's Official Now: Fire Season is Over!

Oh, look at that lovely, lovely little blip on the graph at right. That's showing nearly a half inch (about 11mm) of rain since early this morning. We have puddles on the ground, and our yard is a sea of mud.

This is already more than enough rain to declare the official end of the 2009 fire season. Whew! We escaped without any serious fires this year!

Best of all: we're expecting even more rain today and tomorrow. And the snow level is supposed to be down to 4,500 feet (about 1,500 meters) this afternoon – we may have to go for a little drive to see the snow!

ClimateGate: Peer-Reviewed Studies...

Mark Steyn weighs in on ClimateGate.  An excerpt:
Look for the peer-reviewed label! And then just believe whatever it is they tell you!

The trouble with outsourcing your marbles to the peer-reviewed set is that, if you take away one single thing from the leaked documents, it's that the global warm-mongers have wholly corrupted the "peer-review" process. When it comes to promoting the impending ecopalypse, the Climate Research Unit is the nerve-center of the operation. The "science" of the CRU dominates the "science" behind the United Nations IPCC, which dominates the "science" behind the Congressional cap-and-trade boondoggle, the upcoming Copenhagen shakindownen of the developed world, and the now-routine phenomenon of leaders of advanced, prosperous societies talking like gibbering madmen escaped from the padded cell, whether it's President Barack Obama promising to end the rise of the oceans or the Prince of Wales saying we only have 96 months left to save the planet.

But don't worry, it's all "peer-reviewed."

Here's what Phil Jones of the CRU and his colleague Michael Mann of Penn State mean by "peer review". When
Climate Research published a paper dissenting from the Jones-Mann "consensus," Jones demanded that the journal "rid itself of this troublesome editor," and Mann advised that "we have to stop considering Climate Research as a legitimate peer-reviewed journal. Perhaps we should encourage our colleagues in the climate research community to no longer submit to, or cite papers."

So much for Climate Research. When
Geophysical Research Letters also showed signs of wandering off the "consensus" reservation, Dr. Tom Wigley ("one of the world's foremost experts on climate change") suggested they get the goods on its editor, Jim Saiers, and go to his bosses at the American Geophysical Union to "get him ousted." When another pair of troublesome dissenters emerge, Dr. Jones assured Dr. Mann, "I can't see either of these papers being in the next IPCC report. Kevin and I will keep them out somehow – even if we have to redefine what the peer-review literature is!"
Mr. Steyn has caught rather exactly one of the central horrors of ClimateGate: the success of the CRU in perverting the standard science check-and-balance of peer-review. Go read the whole thing!

Friday, November 27, 2009

The Mayaguez Incident...

Long-time readers of this blog may remember that I was on board the USS Long Beach in May of 1975, during the Mayaguez incident.  The Cambodian Kmer Rouge forces captured the Mayaguez, a US Navy supply ship manned by a civilian crew.

At the time the Mayaguez was captured, the USS Long Beach was in the port of Sattahip, Thailand, and much of the crew (including me) was in Bankok.  The crew was recalled and the ship got underway on the second day of the four-day incident.  We sailed just over 200 miles to the southeast, to Koh Tang island, some 60 miles off the coast of Cambodia (modern satellite photo at right).  I remember seeing the island from the deck of the ship, watching the air support and ship-based bombardment in action.

Forty one Americans died in the Mayaguez incident, including eighteen who died in heavy fighting on Koh Tang.

Just recently it occurred to me that at this remove their might actually be a book about the incident, and in fact I found two, which I bought and read: The Last Battle, by Ralph Wetterhahn and The Four Days of Mayaguez by Roy Rowan.  Both were fascinating reads for me, the former for its rich content, the latter for the human story of the captured crew.

One thing about both books absolutely floored me: neither of them contains any mention of the USS Long Beach, or any other US Navy ships besides the USS Holt, the USS Wilson, and the USS Coral Sea (all of which were direct participants in the battle).  I don't know for certain how many other US Navy ships were present, as my memory of events almost 35 years ago is a bit shaky.  But my best estimate is that at least six US Navy ships were there (and I think one Australian ship as well). 

My role on the ship kept me in CIC (Combat Information Center) most of the time, and I had access to some information as the battle progressed.  On reading these books, I realize now that what I “knew” at the time was very sketchy and often inaccurate.  The USS Long Beach's primary role was air defense control, and that's the main involvement I remember us actually having in the incident.  However, there was discussion of our Marine detachment (roughly 60 men) participating in the rescue effort, and also there was the possibility that the 5 inch guns on board would be used in supporting the troops on Koh Tang.

It was quite a strange experience to read two books about an incident that I was a witness to...

ClimateGate: Excellent Observations and Discussions...

Armed and Dangerous is a new blog to me, written by Eric S. Raymond, who may be familiar to you as the author of The Cathedral and the Bazaar.  Based on reading the posts on the front page, I've added it to my daily reading list.  There are some excellent posts on ClimateGate up there now, with the comments being just as interesting as the posts themselves...

Two Adult Cats, Badly in Need of a Home...

The Steele Canyon Veterinary Clinic has two beautiful, fluffy adult Siamese cats (one flame-point, one lilac-point) available for adoption.  If one of these steals your heart, please call them at 619/659-7274.  Both are in need of a loving home, either together or separately...


ClimateGate: McIntyre Begins Digging into the Data...

I've been waiting eagerly for this: the well-informed AGW skeptic Steve McIntyre has started digging into the trove of ClimateGate data.  Of course he's finding interesting stuff.  This post is also interesting, for a completely different reason: McIntyre is attempting to get other scientists who were revealed by the ClimateGate emails to be critical of the IPCC data to comment (without success so far).

If you're at all interested in ClimateGate and the AGW debate, I highly recommend regularly visiting Climate Audit (Steve McIntyre's blog)...

ClimateGate: WSJ Weighs In...

The Wall Street Journal has an editorial on ClimateGate with this conclusion:
The response to this among the defenders of Mr. Mann and his circle has been that even if they did disparage doubters and exclude contrary points of view, theirs is still the best climate science we've got. The proof for this is circular. It's the best, we're told, because it's the most-published and most-cited—in that same peer-reviewed literature.

Even so, by rigging the rules, they've made it impossible to know how good it really is. And then, one is left to wonder why they felt the need to rig the game in the first place, if their science is as robust as they claim. If there's an innocent explanation for that, we'd love to hear it.

It's a good, short piece – read the whole thing here.

ClimateGate: Skewed Science...

Interesting piece from the Canadian newspaper, the National Post.  Since the ClimateGate story broke, such skeptical pieces are suddenly being published all over the place.  It's too bad that it takes a scandal to prod the lamestream media into more balanced reporting.  Now I'm actually a little worried that they're headed too far the other way!

Here's an excerpt:
Millions of measurements, global coverage, consistently rising temperatures, case closed: The Earth is warming. Except for one problem. CRU’s average temperature data doesn’t jive with that of Vincent Courtillot, a French geo-magneticist, director of the Institut de Physique du Globe in Paris, and a former scientific advisor to the French Cabinet. Last year he and three colleagues plotted an average temperature chart for Europe that shows a surprisingly different trend. Aside from a very cold spell in 1940, temperatures were flat for most of the 20th century, showing no warming while fossil fuel use grew. Then in 1987 they shot up by about 1 C and have not shown any warming since. This pattern cannot be explained by rising carbon dioxide concentrations, unless some critical threshold was reached in 1987; nor can it be explained by climate models.

Courtillot and Jean-Louis Le Mouël, a French geo-magneticist, and three Russian colleagues first came into climate research as outsiders four years ago. The Earth’s magnetic field responds to changes in solar output, so geomagnetic measurements are good indicators of solar activity. They thought it would be interesting to compare solar activity with climatic temperature measurements.

Their first step was to assemble a database of temperature measurements and plot temperature charts. To do that, they needed raw temperature measurements that had not been averaged or adjusted in any way. Courtillot asked Phil Jones, the scientist who runs the CRU database, for his raw data, telling him (according to one of the ‘Climategate’ emails that surfaced following the recent hacking of CRU’s computer systems) “there may be some quite important information in the daily values which is likely lost on monthly averaging.” Jones refused Courtillot’s request for data, saying that CRU had “signed agreements with national meteorological services saying they would not pass the raw data onto third parties.” (Interestingly, in another of the CRU emails, Jones said something very different: “I took a decision not to release our [meteorological] station data, mainly because of McIntyre,” referring to Canadian Steve McIntyre, who helped uncover the flaws in the hockey stick graph.)

ClimateGate: Thoughts from a Critical IPCC Reviewer...

Vincent Gray is a scientist from New Zealand, and an anthropogenic global warming skeptic.  He was one of the expert reviewers on the infamous IPCC report, though nearly all of his comments were ignored.  PajamasMedia has a brief piece by him that starts with this:
Nothing about the revelations surprises me. I have maintained email correspondence with most of these scientists for many years, and I know several personally. I long ago realized that they were faking the whole exercise.

When you enter into a debate with any of them, they always stop cold when you ask an awkward question. This applies even when you write to a government department or a member of Parliament. I and many of my friends have grown accustomed to our failure to publish and to lecture, and to the rejection of our comments submitted prior to every IPCC report.

Read the whole thing.

Al Gore's Organic Vegetable Patch...

More from the London Telegraph:
Just a few considerations in addition to previous remarks about the explosion of the East Anglia Climategate e-mails in America. The reaction is growing exponentially there. Fox News, Barack Obama’s Nemesis, is now on the case, trampling all over Al Gore’s organic vegetable patch and breaking the White House windows. It has extracted some of the juiciest quotes from the e-mails and displayed them on-screen, with commentaries. Joe Public, coast-to-coast, now knows, thanks to the clowns at East Anglia’s CRU, just how royally he has been screwed.
“Al Gore's organic vegetable patch” – gotta love that British humor...  Read the whole thing.

Thursday, November 26, 2009

ClimateGate: Oh, the Animals!


ClimateGate: How They All Squirmed...

By James Delingpole at the London Telegraph:
Among the many great amusements of the Climategate scandal are the myriad imaginative excuses being offered by the implicated scientists and their friends in the MSM as to why this isn’t a significant story. Here are some of the best:
Just go read it.  You know you want to...

ClimateGate: More Source Code Analysis...

Bloggers and scientists all over the world are digging into the IDL and Fortran programs that are part of the ClimateGate trove.  Here's a nice summary of the current findings from American Thinker.  A taste:

One can only imagine the angst suffered daily by the co-conspirators, who knew full well that the "Documents" sub-folder of the CRU FOI2009 file contained more than enough probative program source code to unmask CRU's phantom methodology. 

In fact, there are hundreds of IDL and FORTRAN source files buried in dozens of subordinate sub-folders. And many do properly analyze and chart maximum latewood density (MXD), the growth parameter commonly utilized by CRU scientists as a temperature proxy, from raw or legitimately normalized data. Ah, but many do so much more. 

Skimming through the often spaghetti-like code, the number of programs which subject the data to a mixed-bag of transformative and filtering routines is simply staggering. Granted, many of these "alterations" run from benign smoothing algorithms (e.g., omitting rogue outliers) to moderate infilling mechanisms (e.g., estimating missing station data from that of those closely surrounding). But many others fall into the precarious range between highly questionable (removing MXD data which demonstrate poor correlations with local temperature) to downright fraudulent (replacing MXD data entirely with measured data to reverse a disorderly trend-line).

In fact, workarounds for the post-1960 "divergence problem," as described by both RealClimate and Climate Audit, can be found throughout the source code. So much so that perhaps the most ubiquitous programmer's comment (REM) I ran across warns that the particular module "Uses 'corrected' MXD - but shouldn't usually plot past 1960 because these will be artificially adjusted to look closer to the real temperatures."

What exactly is meant by "corrected” MXD," you ask? Outstanding question -- and the answer appears amorphous from program to program. Indeed, while some employ one or two of the aforementioned "corrections," others throw everything but the kitchen sink at the raw data prior to output.
The more I discover or read about these “scientists”, the madder I get at them...

A Different Twist on ClimateGate...

Some commentators – predominantly political commentators – who are skeptical of AGW are not so much skeptical of the science as they are skeptical of the motivation for the science.  In particular, they believe that the environmental movement is largely controlled by socialists (or those even further to the left) who see the environmental issues as an excellent source of FUD (fear, uncertainty, and doubt) that can be used as levers to get the electorate in democracies to choose to give government control over many areas of their lives.  These commentators think that the pro-AGW scientists are “useful idiots”, perfect for exploitation by the socialist activists in control of the environmental movement. 

This all reeks of conspiricism to me, and it's in my general nature to be skeptical of such claims.  Stupidity and avarice, it seems to me, are perfectly sufficient to explain everything I've seen so far in ClimateGate.

But here's an observation that I must admit lends a little weight to the contentions of these commentators.  I'm going to start watching this a little more credulously than I have been...

Video Primer on the AGW “Settled Science”

Thanksgiving in Jamul...

Today is the first day Debbie and I have had together in about two weeks – first I was off on a combined personal and business trip, then she was up in Murietta, cooking for a fancy-schmancy dog training seminar (trainers and trainees).  She got back home late last night.

Our Thanksgiving Day feast this year will be with our friends and neighbors, Jim and Michelle Barnick (who live just up the hill from us).  They're having a few dozen friends and relatives over.  Our contribution is the pumpkin pie, which Debbie and I just finished making. 

We had some help from the dogs.  I made the pie crusts (a simple crust made of ginger snap crumbs and butter).  I accidentally brushed a few crumbs off onto the floor, where Race (our border collie yearling) found them.  You could see him immediately take on a wondering look, as if to say “Where the hell has this been my whole life?” 

Then a little while later I had the job of mixing the filling.  After pouring the filling into the pies (and a couple of extra custard cups), I had a nice, big mixing bowl coated with the filling mixture.  Basically that's eggs, evaporated milk, and pumpkin, with some spices and sugar.  If you're a dog, I don't think it gets any better than that.  Suffice it to say that the mixing bowl was shortly extremely clean, at a molecular level.  I could have just let it dry and thrown it back in the cabinet, but for form's sake I actually did wash it off...

Now the pies are in the oven, the dishes are all washed, and we're just relaxing for a bit.  In a few hours we'll wander up the hill to start our feast.  A few hours after that, we'll be painfully full of excellent food and drink, and we'll be smiling from the good company of our friends...

Happy Thanksgiving to you all, on this beautiful day in the chaparral of Lawson Valley, just east of Jamul...

ClimateGate Editorial...

By Lorrie Goldstein in the Toronto Sun.  The lede:
If you're wondering how the robot-like march of the world's politicians towards Copenhagen can possibly continue in the face of the scientific scandal dubbed "climategate," it's because Big Government, Big Business and Big Green don't give a s*** about "the science."

They never have. 

Go read the whole thing.

Can citizens win against the warmenists?  I think that maybe, just maybe, the answer is “yes!”

The Proclamation...

We have much to be thankful for, even as there is much to be worried about.  I've never heard it said better than this:
By the President of the United States of America.

A Proclamation.

The year that is drawing towards its close, has been filled with the blessings of fruitful fields and healthful skies. To these bounties, which are so constantly enjoyed that we are prone to forget the source from which they come, others have been added, which are of so extraordinary a nature, that they cannot fail to penetrate and soften even the heart which is habitually insensible to the ever watchful providence of Almighty God. In the midst of a civil war of unequaled magnitude and severity, which has sometimes seemed to foreign States to invite and to provoke their aggression, peace has been preserved with all nations, order has been maintained, the laws have been respected and obeyed, and harmony has prevailed everywhere except in the theatre of military conflict; while that theatre has been greatly contracted by the advancing armies and navies of the Union. Needful diversions of wealth and of strength from the fields of peaceful industry to the national defence, have not arrested the plough, the shuttle or the ship; the axe has enlarged the borders of our settlements, and the mines, as well of iron and coal as of the precious metals, have yielded even more abundantly than heretofore. Population has steadily increased, notwithstanding the waste that has been made in the camp, the siege and the battle-field; and the country, rejoicing in the consiousness of augmented strength and vigor, is permitted to expect continuance of years with large increase of freedom. No human counsel hath devised nor hath any mortal hand worked out these great things. They are the gracious gifts of the Most High God, who, while dealing with us in anger for our sins, hath nevertheless remembered mercy. It has seemed to me fit and proper that they should be solemnly, reverently and gratefully acknowledged as with one heart and one voice by the whole American People. I do therefore invite my fellow citizens in every part of the United States, and also those who are at sea and those who are sojourning in foreign lands, to set apart and observe the last Thursday of November next, as a day of Thanksgiving and Praise to our beneficent Father who dwelleth in the Heavens. And I recommend to them that while offering up the ascriptions justly due to Him for such singular deliverances and blessings, they do also, with humble penitence for our national perverseness and disobedience, commend to His tender care all those who have become widows, orphans, mourners or sufferers in the lamentable civil strife in which we are unavoidably engaged, and fervently implore the interposition of the Almighty Hand to heal the wounds of the nation and to restore it as soon as may be consistent with the Divine purposes to the full enjoyment of peace, harmony, tranquillity and Union.

In testimony whereof, I have hereunto set my hand and caused the Seal of the United States to be affixed.

Done at the City of Washington, this Third day of October, in the year of our Lord one thousand eight hundred and sixty-three, and of the Independence of the Unites States the Eighty-eighth.

By the President: Abraham Lincoln

It Begins...

Skeptical scientists are starting to tear into the raw data recently revealed by hackers who posted thousands of documents from East Anglia's CRU (see earlier posts).  Some New Zealanders have found that the raw data from their country was heavily – and arbitrarily – manipulated to show a hockey stick where none exists in the raw data.

Expect much, much more of this sort of disclosure...

Wednesday, November 25, 2009

And Yet It Cools...

Go read Jules Crittenden...

ClimateGate Satire...

IowaHawk is well-known for his satirical pieces lampooning just about everything deserving of lampooning.  Some of them are roll-around-on-the-floor funny, especially if they happen to be on a topic that's near and dear to your heart.

Well, now he's speared ClimateGate.  And I'm just now recovering.  If you enjoy satire, and you have a working knowledge of the AGW debate and ClimateGate, then put down your morning beverage, swallow, and go read.

One little sample:
Many of those behaviors are on display in the security film, as we see a sexless group of drone graduate students processing a raw datum with saliva, sawdust and Fortran code. After each iteration the time series is presented to the Alpha Grantwriter to see if fits inside his graph. Several graduate drones die of exhaustion, but the data eventually fit the template.

Next the Alpha Grantwriter flies to an international climate research conference with the completed PowerPoint template, where he will share his guano with other Alpha Grantwriters over cocktails in the hotel lounge. This is a process metascientists refer to as "peer review."

Lordy, that man can throw those words around...

Cruel Farce...

You've probably seen the recent news stories about the Belgian man who spent 23 years supposedly in a coma, but actually fully conscious – but unable to communicate.  A Poe-esque horror story...

Well, not so fast.  There are two separate lines of evidence that the poor man is actually conscious.  One of these lines of evidence is based on brain scanning, which the researcher involved cautions is “experimental” and “speculative”.  The other line of evidence is based on “facilitated communication” – the notion that a skilled facilitator can assist the patient in communicating.

Facilitated communication (FC for short) has a long and heart-breaking record.  Hundreds of parents of autistic children were bilked out of thousands of dollars by supposed FC experts claiming they could help their children communicate.  Experts have thoroughly demolished every claim of FC, yet it persists (though thankfully at a much reduced level).  Basically the FC experts just made it all up, collecting a nice fee in the process.

So when I heard that the Belgian man was communicating “with the assistantance of an FC expert”, all my red flags went up.  My favorite debunker of FC was James Randi, the magician and well-known skeptic, famous for his debunkings of junk science in general.  So this morning I went poking around at his web site, and voila! – Mr. Randi has been writing about this incident already, calling it a cruel farce and a vehicle for the FC expert to get a lucrative book deal.

Read the whole thing, and watch this little video of the FC expert in action.  Then make up your own mind about whether this poor Belgian man is being exploited or assisted...

Tuesday, November 24, 2009

Hide the Decline...

Well, that didn't take long!

CRU Document Hack Thoughts...

In reading various reactions to the documents hacked from CRU, I see three general trends:
  • Those who, like me, feel betrayed by the corrupt science on exhibit – the manipulation of data, the suppression of honest debate, the withholding of information.  These people tend to view the CRU revelations as casting doubt on the “science” production of the CRU participants – which include most of the leading lights of pro-AGW science.

  • Those who dismiss everything exposed in the CRU documents as merely the human side of science.  These folks seem to believe that all science is conducted in this fashion, and that the CRU documents simply expose this in an unusually candid fashion for the public to see.  Sheesh, I certainly hope these people are wrong!

  • Those who see the CRU revelations as a blow to pro-AGW science, but think there's enough untainted science remaining to sustain their pro-AGW beliefs.  To me, this sounds like grasping at straws – the work tainted by the CRU documents is foundational work that remains, so far as I know, the only direct evidence of long-term global warming that is correlated to human activity.  I deliberately exclude climate models, as they are not observational science at all, but rather an attempt to project hypotheses into the future.  
What little coverage I've seen in the U.S. lamestream media has been superficial and oriented toward the scandalous aspects.  Nearly all the interesting analysis comes from blogs – hundreds of them.  In the U.K., the situation is different – there's more complete coverage from the media, including commentary by prominent scientists.  Compared to the U.S. coverage, it's quite impressive.

Steve McIntyre of Climate Audit is clearly enemy number one in the CRU documents.  These must be very interesting times for him.  His site has been overwhelmed with traffic, and he's set up a mirror site to handle the volume.  Some of the most interesting – and sober – analysis of the CRU documents can be found up there.  If this is a topic that interests you, I recommend monitoring his site.

It's going to be interesting to watch how this all shakes out...

Monday, November 23, 2009

An Email and My Response...

I received an email this morning that raises an interesting question.  The email (edited to preserve the anonymity of the writer):
I have enjoyed reading your posts on climategate, and am quite sympathetic to your position.  I am very skeptical about the science underlying the various global warming claims.  I am also sympathetic with your claim that publicly funded researchers should release their software codes to the public.

Nonetheless, the counter of these scientists is that other scientists can produce their own code and see what results they obtain.  I was wondering whether you knew if such attempts at reproduction have occurred, and if not, why not.  Is it that it is very expensive to undertake these studies and the ordinary funding sources do not want to fund such efforts?  Or do you think something else is goind on.  I would love to know the answer.  Thanks.

In any event, keep up the good work.

Here's my response (slightly edited from the original to remove personal information):
Hi, M.!

Not only do they claim that other scientists could reproduce their results, they claim that two groups (one in Russia, and one in Australia) have already done so.  But I'm very skeptical of these results, as the two groups are hardly independent of the CRU crowd -- they're "insiders" in every sense.

It's an interesting question you raise, though, and one I've pondered a bit as I read through those CRU emails.  Reproducing their results has several possible meanings.  In the purest scientific sense, "reproduction" would mean that the same results were obtained with independently acquired and analyzed data.  In this sense, the CRU's results have NOT been reproduced, and they do not claim that they have been.  I believe reproduction in that sense would be quite challenging, as the CRU's claim is that virtually all available proxy temperature data was assessed in their efforts.  One step down on the reproduction scale would be for independent groups to take the same data but independently analyze it.  I can't be certain, as I don't have access to the actual studies, but from the emails it sounds like this approach is also NOT the kind of reproduction that the two groups did.  So one more step down on the reproduction scale would be for independent groups to take the same data and use the same general analytical approach.  I believe that this is what Mann et al are referring to when they claim their results have been reproduced, and could be reproduced by any qualified scientist.  Essentially that means someone checked their math, not exactly what I would call a validation of the approach.

What Mann et al have consistently refused to provide are detailed descriptions of exactly how (and why) they selected and adjusted their data sets.  Other researchers (like Steve McIntyre) with access to the raw data have been unable to reproduce the CRU's results with anything that resembles unbiased data selection or adjustment.  In fact, in some cases they come to very different results that would lead one to very different conclusions.  Hence the debate on Climate Audit, which has become increasingly informed over the past couple of years as McIntyre and his cohorts get more and more educated.

Speaking as a concerned citizen whose pocketbook is highly at risk here, I believe that what is urgently needed is for a truly independent and skeptical group of scientists to attempt to reproduce the CRU's results in the first, purest sense I described above.  We should not be considering sweeping and expensive mitigation efforts until we have done our very best to confirm the accuracy of the underlying science.

Sunday, November 22, 2009

Enceladus Flyby...

Fantastic photos from yesterday's flyby of Enceladus, by Cassini.  Awesome!

CRU Roundup...

The blogosphere is chock full of stuff on the CRU data hack, now being dubbed “ClimateGate”.  Some that caught my fancy are here, here, here, and here.  The third link is to ClimateAudit's mirror site – Steve McIntyre has been so overwhelmed with traffic the past couple of days that he's had to engage a bigger server!

The lamestream media has fallen on its face with this one, as they have with so many other scandals that required even the tiniest bit of research and imagination.  Also, as with some of the past scandals (such as “RatherGate”), they seem to believe they have a vested interest – this time, in a pro-AGW stance.  Pajamas-clad amateurs have showed up the “pros” once again...

Still More on the CRU Data Dump...

Here's one more code file, this one  This is another IDL code file, and it appears to be calibrating tree ring data against direct temperature measurement data:
; Calibrates, usually via regression, various NH and quasi-NH records
; against NH or quasi-NH seasonal or annual temperatures.
; Specify period over which to compute the regressions (stop in 1960 to avoid
; the decline that affects tree-ring density records)
perst=1881.  ;note 1
thalf=10.     ; filter to use to give extra hi & lo pass info
; Select season of the temperature data against which to calibrate
if n_elements(doseas) eq 0 then doseas=0      ; 0=annual, 1=Apr-Sep, 2=Oct-Mar
; Select record to calibrate
if n_elements(dorec) eq 0 then dorec=0
doland=0      ; for Mann et al. only, 0=use NH mean, 1=use land>20N mean
if recname[dorec] eq 'mann' then begin
  if doland eq 0 then openw,1,'recon_mannNH.out'+seasname[doseas] $
                 else openw,1,'recon_mannLN20.out'+seasname[doseas]
endif else begin
if ! eq 'X' then window,ysize=800
; Compute the >20N land instrumental temperature timseries and filter
print,'Reading temperatures'
; Compute the northern hemisphere >20N land series
; First extract >20N rows
kl=where(gtemp.y gt 20.)
; Compute latitude-weighted mean
; Compute seasonal/annual mean
case doseas of  ;note 2
  0: lvy=mkseason(nhmon,0,11,datathresh=6)   ; could try 9,8 (Oct-Sep annual)!
  1: lvy=mkseason(nhmon,3,8,datathresh=3)
  2: lvy=mkseason(nhmon,9,2,datathresh=3)
; Filter it
; Read in record and filter
case recname[dorec] of
  'esper': begin
  'jones': begin
  'mann': begin
    if doland eq 0 then begin
      readf,2,rawdat           ;,format='(I6,F11.7)'
    endif else begin
      headdat=' '
      readf,2,rawdat           ;,format='(I6,F11.7)'
  '3tree': begin
  'briffa': begin
  'iwarm': begin     ; use warm-season instrumental series as the predictor!
  'mj2000': begin
  'crowley03': begin
  'rutherford04': begin
kl=where((x ge datst) and (x le daten))
if total(abs(yrtemp-x)) ne 0 then message,'Incompatible years'
; Now correlate and regress them
printf,1,'Correlations and regression coefficients for '+seasname[doseas]
keeplist=where(finite(y1+lvy) and (x ge perst) and (x le peren),nkeep)
printf,1,'Full timeseries:',r1,c1
printf,1,'AR1 for MXD and NHEMI:',mxd_ar1,nht_ar1
  xtitle='Scaled Esper et al. anomaly  (!Uo!NC)',$
  ytitle='Northern Hemisphere temperature anomaly  (!Uo!NC)',$
printf,1,'High-pass      :',r2,c2
printf,1,'Low-pass       :',r3,c3
; Now compute the rms error between the reconstruction and the original
; timeseries
rmserr=sqrt( total( tserr^2 ) / float(n_elements(tserr)) )
printf,1,'RMS error between land>20Napr-sep temperature and Esper et al. reconstruction'
printf,1,'Uncertainties surrounding regression coefficients'
printf,1,' '
printf,1,'Computations carried out over the period ',perst,peren
printf,1,' '
printf,1,'To separate low and high frequency components, a gaussian weighted'
printf,1,'filter was used with a half-width (years) of ',thalf
Where to start?  Here, I guess:

1.  Another arbitrary-looking choice of limits.  In this case, they've selected the period 1881 through 1960 to correlate the two data series.  The comment above, however, is very suggestive of why the 1960 cutoff was chosen.

2.  This piece of code looks like classic cherry-picking and fudging.  Here the software writer is choosing arbitrary months and data thresholds when sampling the annual mean of the instrumental data (which will be used to calibrate the tree-ring data.  The comment reinforces this notion.

Something that strikes me as I read through all this code: it looks amateurish, not at all like what I'd imagine code written by scientists expecting peer review would produce.  I'm no scientist, so it may well just reflect my naiveté about things scientific.  But I'm quite disappointed in it...

More on the CRU Data Dump...

The blogosphere is chock full of stuff this morning, mainly analyzing the emails and documents (more on that in another post).  So this morning I thought I'd take a gander at some of the software code that was included in the hacker's dump.  This is the contents of an IDL file named  This code appears to be used to pre-process raw tree ring data.  I've highlighted areas of interest in bold red, and added a comment with a footnote number; otherwise the file's contents are unmodified:
; PLOTS 'ALL' REGION MXD timeseries from age banded and from hugershoff
; standardised datasets.
; Reads Harry's regional timeseries and outputs the 1600-1992 portion
; with missing values set appropriately.  Uses mxd, and just the
; "all band" timeseries
yrloc=[1400,findgen(19)*5.+1904]  ;note 1
  2.6,2.6,2.6]*0.75         ; fudge factor
if n_elements(yrloc) ne n_elements(valadj) then message,'Oooops!'
if ! eq 'X' then begin
  window, ysize=800
endif else begin
; Get regional tree lists and rbar
for i = nreg-1 , nreg-1 do begin
  ml=where(densadj eq -99.999,nmiss)
  kl=where((x ge 1400) and (x le 1992)) ;note 3
  densall=densadj(1,kl)     ; all bands
  densadj=densadj(0,kl)     ; 2-6 bands
  ; Now normalise w.r.t. 1881-1960
yearlyadj=interpol(valadj,yrloc,x) ;note 2
  ; Now plot them
  cpl_barts,x,densall,title='Age-banded MXD from all sites',$
; Restore the Hugershoff NHD1 (see Nature paper 2)
; gets: x,densadj,n,neff
; Extract the post 1600 part
kl=where(x ge 1400)
yearlyadj=interpol(valadj,yrloc,x) ;note 2
; Now plot it too
cpl_barts,x,densadj,title='Hugershoff-standardised MXD from all sites',$
; Now overplot their bidecadal components
  yrange=[-6,2],thick=3,title='Low-pass (20-yr) filtered comparison'
; Now overplot their 50-yr components
  yrange=[-6,2],thick=3,title='Low-pass (50-yr) filtered comparison'
; Now compute the full, high and low pass correlations between the two
; series
printf,1,'Correlations between timeseries'
printf,1,'Age-banded vs. Hugershoff-standardised'
printf,1,'     Region    Full   <10   >10   >30   >50  >100'
kla=where((xband ge perst) and (xband le peren))
klh=where((x ge perst) and (x le peren))
for i = 0 , ntry-1 do begin
  if i eq 0 then r2=correlate(tshi1,tshi2)
printf,1,'ALL SITES',r1,r2,rall,$
printf,1,' '
printf,1,'Correlations carried out over the period ',perst,peren
Well.  Where to start?  I guess I'll just dive right in...

1.  This code constructs a pair of 20 element arrays that are used later as inputs to an interpolation routine.  As the comments "fudge factor" and "very artificial correction for decline" would seem to indicate, these values appear to be completely arbitrary, and unsupported by any underlying theory about why the raw data should be manipulated this way.  I'll tell you what it looks like to this ancient, gray-bearded software who has constructed many software models in his career: this looks like someone manipulating the input to a model to get the desired results.  Publicly such a modeler would proclaim: “Lookee here!  I crunched the tree-ring data and got this result!” – when the reality is that the modeler “fudged” and “corrected” the data until the results matched his preconceived and desired result.  Smoking code gun number one.

2.  These two places are where the “very artificial correction” is being applied. 

3.  This code limits the data in the results to the years 1401 to 1991.  It would be interesting to know why those particular years were chosen.  I'm especially intrigued by the 1991 cutoff, as I've read elsewhere that the tree ring data from the late 20th century doesn't support the notion that tree ring width is a good proxy for temperature.  Could this be the reason for the early cutoff?

Saturday, November 21, 2009

Another CRU Email...

The current climate models employed by the warmenist scientists use a temperature series that is based largely on tree ring data as a proxy for temperature.  Having grown up on a tree nursery, I was skeptical of the basic assumption that tree ring width in an individual tree will vary primarily because of ambient temperature.  I have personally observed much variance in the growth rate of trees based on other factors, like rainfall, nutrients in the ground, predation by animals, etc.  Certainly temperature has some effect on tree growth rate, but other factors also do.

So when I read this email (1256760240.txt) in the collection hacked from CRU, I was most interested.  Again, I've bolded and footnoted the sections I found interesting:
From: Phil Jones To:
Subject: FW: Yamal and paleoclimatology
Date: Wed Oct 28 16:04:00 2009

       There is a lot more there on CA now. I would be very wary about responding to this person now having seen  what McIntyre has put up. You and Tim talked about Yamal. Why have the bristlecones come in now.
    This is what happens - they just keep moving the goalposts.
    Maybe get Tim to redo OB2006 without a few more series.

     X-Authentication-Warning: defang set sender to
     using -f
     Subject: FW: Yamal and paleoclimatology
     Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2009 15:39:48 -0000
     Thread-Topic: Yamal and paleoclimatology
     Thread-Index: AcpDQ2sqWC+z2djuSqC1Ax4HdHoH1wUn1Ocw
     From: "Keiller, Donald"
     X-ARU-sender-host: (CAMEXCH.ANGLIA.LOCAL) []:25427
     X-ARU-Mailhub: yes
     X-ARU-Exchange: yes
     X-ARU-MailFilter: message scanned
     X-Spam-Status: no
     X-Canit-CHI2: 0.00
     X-Bayes-Prob: 0.0001 (Score 0, tokens from: @@RPTN, f028)
     X-Spam-Score: 0.00 () [Hold at 5.00] SPF(none,0)
     X-CanItPRO-Stream: UEA:f028 (inherits from UEA:default,base:default)
     X-Canit-Stats-ID: 34330416 - 89bde843c4e5 (trained as not-spam)
     X-Antispam-Training-Spam: [4]
     X-Scanned-By: CanIt (www . roaringpenguin . com) on
     Dear Professor Briffa, I am pleased to hear that you appear to have recovered from your recent illness sufficiently to post a response to the controversy surrounding the use of the Yamal chronology;
     and the chronology itself;
     Unfortunately I find your explanations lacking in scientific rigour and I am more inclined to believe the analysis of McIntyre1
     Can I have a straightforward answer to the following questions
     1) Are the reconstructions sensitive to the removal of either the Yamal data and Strip pine bristlecones, either when present singly or in combination?
     2) Why these series, when incorporated with white noise as a background, can still produce a Hockey-Stick shaped graph if they have, as you suggest, a low individual weighting?
     And once you have done this, please do me the courtesy of answering my initial email.
     Dr. D.R. Keiller
     -----Original Message-----
     From: Keiller, Donald
     Sent: 02 October 2009 10:34
     To: ''
     Cc: ''
     Subject: Yamal and paleoclimatology
     Dear Professor Briffa, my apologies for contacting you directly, particularly since I hear that you are unwell.
     However the recent release of tree ring data by CRU has prompted much discussion and indeed disquiet about the methodology and conclusions of a number of key papers by you and co-workers.
     As an environmental plant physiologist, I have followed the long debate starting with Mann et al (1998) and through to Kaufman et al (2009).
     As time has progressed I have found myself more concerned with the whole scientific basis of dendroclimatology2. In particular;
     1) The appropriateness of the statistical analyses employed
     2) The reliance on the same small datasets in these multiple studies
     3) The concept of "teleconnection" by which certain trees respond to the
     "Global Temperature Field", rather than local climate
     4) The assumption that tree ring width and density are related to temperature in a linear manner.
     Whilst I would not describe myself as an expert statistician, I do use inferential statistics routinely for both research and teaching and find difficulty in understanding the statistical rationale in these papers3.
     As a plant physiologist I can say without hesitation that points 3 and 4 do not agree with the accepted science.
     There is a saying that "extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof".
     Given the scientific, political and economic importance of these papers, further detailed explanation is urgently required.
     Yours sincerely,
     Dr. Don Keiller.

     EMERGING EXCELLENCE: In the Research Assessment Exercise (RAE) 2008, more than 30% of
     our submissions were rated as 'Internationally Excellent' or 'World-leading'. Among the
     academic disciplines now rated 'World-leading' are Allied Health Professions & Studies;
     Art & Design; English Language & Literature; Geography & Environmental Studies; History;
     Music; Psychology; and Social Work & Social Policy & Administration. Visit
     [8] for more information.
     This e-mail and any attachments are intended for the above named
     recipient(s)only and may be privileged. If they have come to you in
     error you must take no action based on them, nor must you copy or show
     them to anyone please reply to this e-mail to highlight the error and
     then immediately delete the e-mail from your system.

     Any opinions expressed are solely those of the author and do not
     necessarily represent the views or opinions of Anglia Ruskin University.

     Although measures have been taken to ensure that this e-mail and
     attachments are free from any virus we advise that, in keeping with good
     computing practice, the recipient should ensure they are actually virus

     Please note that this message has been sent over public networks which may
     not be a 100% secure communications
     Email has been scanned for viruses by Altman Technologies' email management service -

   Prof. Phil Jones
   Climatic Research Unit        Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
   School of Environmental Sciences    Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
   University of East Anglia
   Norwich                          Email
   NR4 7TJ


One thing that's clear from reading a hundred or so of these emails: the warmenist scientists are quite obsessed with, and defensive about, the Climate Audit web site by Steve McIntyre.  I've long linked to McIntyre's site as one of the best global warming skeptical sites I'd found.  I consider now that my choice has been completely validated!

I don't know anything about the Dr. Donald Keiller who wrote two of the emails in this thread, other than that I was able to confirm (via Google) that Dr. Keiller indeed exists, and works in the field implied in his emails.

My comments:

1. Dr. Keiller read of the controversy regarding the tree ring data being used in the temperature series on McIntyre's Climate Audit site.  He wrote to the authors for clarification.  They never responded, though they did post comments to the articles on Climate Audit.  Dr. Keiller finds McIntyre (a skeptic) more credible.

2. But more interestingly to me, Dr. Keiller questions the entire basis of dendroclimatology (using tree rings to infer anything about the climate).  The Wikipedia article I linked to explains the questions pretty clearly.  This is a big problem for the warmenists, as a major element of their models is the temperature series, which is in turn partly compised of dendroclimatology data.

3. Dr. Keiller is one of many scientists who have called BS on the warmenists creative use of statistics.  It's too bad that this hijacked email contained no more specifics.

Another CRU Email...

This one put a smile on my face.  A scientist I'd not heard of before (Tom Wigley) takes the warmenist scientists to task:
From: Tom Wigley
To:,, Klaus Hasselmann , Jill Jaeger ,,,,,,
Subject: Re: ATTENTION. Invitation to influence Kyoto.
Date: Tue, 25 Nov 1997 11:52:09 -0700 (MST)
Reply-to: Tom Wigley
Cc: Mike Hulme ,

Dear Eleven,

I was very disturbed by your recent letter, and your attempt to get
others to endorse it.  Not only do I disagree with the content of
this letter, but I also believe that you have severely distorted the
IPCC "view" when you say that "the latest IPCC assessment makes a
convincing economic case for immediate control of emissions."  In contrast
to the one-sided opinion expressed in your letter, IPCC WGIII SAR and TP3
review the literature and the issues in a balanced way presenting
arguments in support of both "immediate control" and the spectrum of more
cost-effective options.  It is not IPCC's role to make "convincing cases"
for any particular policy option; nor does it.  However, most IPCC readers
would draw the conclusion that the balance of economic evidence favors the
emissions trajectories given in the WRE paper.  This is contrary to your

This is a complex issue, and your misrepresentation of it does you a
dis-service.  To someone like me, who knows the science, it is
apparent that you are presenting a personal view, not an informed,
balanced scientific assessment.  What is unfortunate is that this will not
be apparent to the vast majority of scientists you have contacted.  In
issues like this, scientists have an added responsibility to keep their
personal views separate from the science, and to make it clear to others
when they diverge from the objectivity they (hopefully) adhere to in their
scientific research.  I think you have failed to do this.

Your approach of trying to gain scientific credibility for your personal
views by asking people to endorse your letter is reprehensible.  No
scientist who wishes to maintain respect in the community should ever
endorse any statement unless they have examined the issue fully
themselves.  You are asking people to prostitute themselves by doing just
this!  I fear that some will endorse your letter, in the mistaken belief
that you are making a balanced and knowledgeable assessment of the science
-- when, in fact, you are presenting a flawed view that neither accords
with IPCC nor with the bulk of the scientific and economic literature on
the subject.

Let me remind you of the science.  The issue you address is one of the
timing of emissions reductions below BAU.  Note that this is not the same
as the timing of action -- and note that your letter categorically
addresses the former rather than the latter issue.  Emissions reduction
timing is epitomized by the differences between the Sxxx and WRExxx
pathways towards CO2 concentration stabilization.  It has been clearly
demonstrated in the literature that the mitigation costs of following an
Sxxx pathway are up to five times the cost of following an equivalent
WRExxx pathway.  It has also been shown that there is likely to be an
equal or greater cost differential for non-Annex I countries, and that the
economic burden in Annex I countries would fall disproportionately on
poorer people.

Furthermore, since there has been no credible analysis of the benefits
(averted impacts) side of the equation, it is impossible to assess fully
the benefits differential between the Sxxx and WRExxx stabilization
profiles.  Indeed, uncertainties in predicting the regional details of
future climate change that would arise from following these pathways, and
the even greater uncertainties that attend any assessment of the impacts
of such climate changes, preclude any credible assessment of the relative
benefits.  As shown in the WRE paper (Nature v. 379, pp. 240-243), the
differentials at the global-mean level are so small, at most a few tenths
of a degree Celsius and a few cm in sea level rise and declining to
minuscule amounts as the pathways approach the SAME target, that it is
unlikely that an analysis of future climate data could even distinguish
between the pathways.  Certainly, given the much larger noise at the
regional level, and noting that even the absolute changes in many
variables at the regional level remain within the noise out to 2030 or
later, the two pathways would certainly be indistinguishable at the
regional level until well into the 21st century.

The crux of this issue is developing policies for controlling greenhouse
gas emissions where the reductions relative to BAU are neither too much,
too soon (which could cause serious economic hardship to those who are
most vulnerable, poor people and poor countries) nor too little, too late
(which could lead to future impacts that would be bad for future
generations of the same groups).  Our ability to quantify the economic
consequences of "too much, too soon" is far better than our ability to
quantify the impacts that might arise from "too little, too late" -- to
the extent that we cannot even define what this means!  You appear to be
putting too much weight on the highly uncertain impacts side of the
equation.  Worse than this, you have not even explained what the issues
are.  In my judgment, you are behaving in an irresponsible way that does
you little credit.  Furthermore, you have compounded your sin by actually
putting a lie into the mouths of innocents ("after carefully examining the
question of timing of emissions reductions, we find the arguments against
postponement to be more compelling").  People who endorse your letter will
NOT have "carefully examined" the issue.

When scientists color the science with their own PERSONAL views or make
categorical statements without presenting the evidence for such
statements, they have a clear responsibility to state that that is what
they are doing.  You have failed to do so.  Indeed, what you are doing is,
in my view, a form of dishonesty more subtle but no less egregious than
the statements made by the greenhouse skeptics, Michaels, Singer et al.  I
find this extremely disturbing.

Tom Wigley

On Tue, 11 Nov 1997, Tim Mitchell wrote:

> Reference:  Statement of European Climate Scientists on Actions to Protect
> Global Climate
> Dear Colleague,
> Attached at the end of this email is a Statement, the purpose of which is
> to bolster or increase governmental and public support for controls of
> emissions of greenhouse gases in European and other industrialised
> countries in the negotiations during the Kyoto Climate Conference in
> December 1997. The Statement was drafted by a number of prominent European
> scientists concerned with the climate issue, 11 of whom are listed after
> the Statement and who are acting as formal sponsors of the Statement.
> *****  The 11 formal sponsors are: *****
> Jan Goudriaan        Hartmut Grassl    Klaus Hasselmann    Jill J‰ger
> Hans Opschoor        Tim O'Riordan        Martin Parry        David Pearce
> Hans-Joachim Schellnhuber            Wolfgang Seiler    Pier Vellinga
> After endorsements from many hundreds of other European climate-related
> scientists are collected (and we hope that you agree to be one of these), the
> Statement will be brought to the attention of key decision-makers (e.g. EU
> Kyoto negotiaters and Environment Ministers) and other opinion-makers in
> Europe (e.g. editorial boards of newspapers) during the week beginning 24th
> November. The UK and other European WWF offices have agreed to assist in
> this activity, although the preparation of the Statement itself has in no
> way been initiated or influenced by WWF or any other body.  This is an
> initiative taken by us alone and supported by our 11 Statement sponsors.
> We would very much like you to endorse this Statement.  Unfortunately, at
> this time we can no longer take into account any suggested modifications.
> Nevertheless, we hope that it reflects your views closely enough so that
> you can support it.  If you agree with the Statement, then:
> 1. PLEASE IMMEDIATELY FILL OUT the form below and either reply via email
> (preferably) or telefax (only if necessary) to the indicated fax number.
> Replies received after Wednesday 19th November will not be included.  If
> replying by email please do not use the 'reply all' option.  If this
> invitation has been forwarded from a colleague, please make sure your reply
> is directed to the originators of this invitation, namely:
> (on behalf of Mike Hulme and Joe Alcamo).
> 2. We have identified about 700 climate-related scientists in Europe who
> are receiving this email directly from us.  If you feel it is appropriate,
> PLEASE FORWARD THIS MESSAGE to up to three colleagues in your country who
> are working in climate-related fields, who you think may support the
> Statement and whom we have not targeted.  To identify colleagues whom we
> have already invited you can examine the email address list we have used
> for your country in the email header (or else appended to the end of this
> email).
> We realize that you are very busy, but this action may have a very positive
> influence on public discussions during the critical period leading up to
> Kyoto and during the Conference itself.
> With best wishes,
> Michael Hulme, Climatic Research Unit, UEA, Norwich
> Joseph Alcamo, University of Kassel, Germany
> (On behalf of the other signatories of the Statement)
> ____________________________________________________________________________
> I agree to have my name placed on the list of scientists that endorse the
> Statement of European Climate Scientists on Actions to Protect Global
> Climate.
> Full Title and Name                       
> Affiliation                        Country
> Signature (for fax replies only)                       
> Date
> Other comments:
> ____________________________________________________________________________
> We would prefer you to return this email message to us by email, having
> duly completed the form above.  You should be sending the form to:
>                            ****************************
>                            **                        **
>                            **  **
>                            **                        **
>                            ****************************
> If you would rather not use the email reply function, then please print out
> the form above and fax it (filled in) to:

> "Attention: European Climate Statement"
> Climatic Research Unit,  University of East Anglia
> Telefax: +44 1603 507784
> ____________________________________________________________________________
> Statement of European Climate Scientists on Actions to Protect Global Climate
> =============================================================================
> In 1992, the nations of the world took a significant step to protect global
> climate by signing the Framework Convention on Climate Change. This year,
> at the coming Climate Summit in Kyoto*, they have the chance to take
> another important step.  It is our belief that the nations of the world
> should agree to substantive action for controlling the growth of greenhouse
> gas emissions.

> Our opinion is bolstered by the latest assessment of scientific knowledge
> carried out by the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The
> IPCC reported that "the balance of evidence suggests a discernible human
> influence on global climate". They also gave examples of observed climate
> change up to now, including:
> ∑ Global mean surface air temperature has increased by between 0.3 to 0.6
> degrees Celsius since the late 19th century, and recent years have been the
> warmest since 1860.
> ∑ Global sea level has risen between 10 and 25 centimeters over the past
> 100 years.
> Based on estimates from computer models, the IPCC also maintained that
> humanity will have a continuing and cumulative effect on climate in the
> future. Future society may find that some climate impacts are positive, as
> in the possible increase in rainfall and crop yield in some dry regions;
> and society may be able to adapt to some impacts, such as by building dikes
> against rising sea level. But many, if not most, climate impacts will
> increase risks to society and nature, and will be irreversible on the human
> time scale. Among the possible changes are further increases in sea level,
> the transformation of forest and other ecosystems, modifications of crop
> yield, and shifts in the geographic range of pests and pathogens. It is
> also possible that infrequent but disastrous events, such as droughts and
> floods, could occur more often in some regions. At particular risk are
> people living on arid or semi-arid land, in low-lying coastal areas and
> islands, in water-limited or flood-prone regions, or in mountainous
> regions. The risk to nature will be significant in the many areas where
> ecosystems cannot quickly adapt to changing climate, or where they are
> already under stress from environmental pollution or other factors.
> Because of these risks, we consider it important for nations to set limits
> on the increase of global temperature due to human interference with the
> climate system. We recommend that European and other industrialized nations
> use such long-term climate protection goals as a guide to determining
> short-term emission targets. This approach has been adopted, for example,
> by the European Union and the Alliance of Small Island States.
> Some may say that action to control emissions should be postponed because
> of the scientific uncertainties of climate change and its impact. Our view
> is that the risks and irreversibility of many climate impacts require
> "precautionary measures to anticipate, prevent, or minimize the causes of
> climate change", as stated in the Framework Convention on Climate Change.
> We also acknowledge that economic arguments have been put forward for
> postponing the control of emissions in Europe and elsewhere. However, after
> carefully examining the question of timing of emission reductions, we find
> the arguments against postponement to be more compelling. First, postponing
> action could shift an unfair burden for more severe reductions of emissions
> onto future generations. Second, it will lead to a greater accumulation of
> greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and hence make it more difficult to
> prevent future climate change when action is finally taken. Third, the
> latest IPCC assessment makes a convincing economic case for immediate
> control of emissions.
> Rather than delay, we strongly urge governments in Europe and other
> industrialized countries to agree to control greenhouse emissions as part
> of a Kyoto agreement. Some controls can be achieved by reducing fossil fuel
> use at little or no net cost through accelerated improvements in the
> efficiency of energy systems, the faster introduction of renewable energy
> sources, and the reduction of subsidies for fossil fuel use. Moreover,
> reducing the use of fossil fuels will also reduce local and regional air
> pollution, and their related impacts on human health and ecosystems.
> We believe that the European Union (EU) proposal is consistent with long
> term climate protection. This proposal would reduce key greenhouse gas
> emissions by 15% from industrialized countries (so-called Annex I
> countries) by the year 2010 (relative to year 1990). Although stronger
> emission reductions will be needed in the future, we see the EU, or
> similar, goal as a positive first step "to prevent dangerous anthropogenic
> interference with the climate system" and to lessen risks to society and
> nature.   Such substantive action is needed now.
> *Third Conference of the Parties to the Framework Convention on Climate
> Change, Kyoto, Japan, December, 1997.
> Signed:
> Jan Goudriaan            Hartmut Grassl        Klaus Hasselmann
> Jill J‰ger            Hans Opschoor            Tim O'Riordan
> Martin Parry             David Pearce            Hans-Joachim Schellnhuber
> Wolfgang Seiler        Pier Vellinga   
> ____________________________________________________________________________
> ************************************************************************
> **  This message originated from the                                    
> **     Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK.  
> **  It was sent out by                                                  
> **     Mike Hulme and Tim Mitchell on behalf of the 11 key signatories. 
> **  If you object to being on this email address list,                  
> **     please accept our apologies and inform us;                       
> **     we will then remove your address from the list.                  
> **  Please direct any comments to:                                      
> **                                                
> ************************************************************************
> The list below consists of the people with UK email addresses to whom this
> message has been sent:
> all CRU staff
> Adger, N
> Alcock, Graeme
> Allan, P
> Allan, Richard P
> Anderson, Dennis
> Armstrong, Adrian
> Arnell, N W
> Audsley, Eric
> Baker, Richard
> Baran, A J
> Barker, Terry
> Benestad, R E
> Bentham, G
> Bigg, G
> Boucher, Keith R
> Bouma, D
> Bramwell, Penny
> Brooks, Roger
> Brown, Philip RA
> Brugge, Roger
> Bullock, P
> Burkhardt, Ulrike
> Butterfield, Ruth
> Cai, Xiaoming
> Cannell, Melvyn
> Carling, Bob
> Castleford, John
> Chan, Angela H Y
> Clark, Douglas B
> Cluckie, I D
> Collins, Matthew
> Colman, Andrew
> Connolley, William M
> Cornford, Dan
> Costigan, Peter
> Cox, Peter
> Cox, Peter M
> Cui, Zhiqiang
> Culf, Alastair
> Cullum, Dave
> Dale, Ian
> Davis, Gerald R
> Dewhurst, Nicola
> Doherty, Ruth
> Dokerty, T
> Dorling, S
> Downey, Ian
> Downing, Tom
> East, M.
> Easthope, Mark
> Evans, Sam
> Favis-Mortlock, David
> Ferris, Rachel
> Fisher, Helen
> Folland, Chris
> Foot, John S
> Ford, I J
> Fowler, David
> Friend, Andrew
> Fruh, Wolf-Gerrit
> Gallop, Rowland
> Gawith, Megan
> Geer, Alan
> George, Glen
> Gibson, J K
> Giles, Brian
> Goode, Helen Rachel
> Gregory, David
> Gregory, Jonathan
> Gregory, Ken
> Griggs, D
> Grubb, Michael
> Hannah, David M
> Hansen, Jim
> Harrison, Paula
> Hawksworth, Kevin Stuart
> Hedger, Merylyn
> Hewitt, Chris
> Highwood, Eleanor
> Holt, Chris
> Horton, Briony
> Houghton, J
> Houseago, Richenda
> Huntingford, Chris
> Hutchings, Jenny
> Ingram, John
> Ingram, W J
> Jackson, Tim
> Jakob, Christian
> Jeffree, Christopher E
> Jenkins, Geoff
> Johns, Tim
> Johnston, Peter
> Jolliffe, Ian
> Jones, Clive
> Jones, Colin
> Jordan, A
> Joyce, Andrew N
> Keen, Ann
> Kennedy, Hamid
> Kenworthy, Joan M
> Keramitsoglou, Iphigenia
> Kilsby, Chris
> King, Ben P
> King, John
> Kings, John
> Kniveton, Dom
> Lamptey, Benjamin Lantei
> Lary, David J
> Liss, P
> Livermore, Matt
> Lloyd, Colin
> Lynagh, Norman
> Marshall, David
> Marshall, Stewart
> Maskell, Kathy
> Matthews, B
> Mavromatis, Theodoros
> Mayes, Julian
> Mayr, Thomas
> McClatchey, John
> McGregor, Glenn Russell
> McKay, Douglas
> McLaren, Alison
> McMichael, Tony
> Medlyn, Belinda
> Merchant, Chris
> Mitchell, John
> Morison, James
> Morse, Andy
> Mulligan, Mark
> Murphy, James
> Murrill, A
> Nicholls, Robert
> Noguer, Maria
> Orr, John
> Palmer, Tim
> Palutikof, Jean
> Parker, David
> Parkinson, Stuart
> Parry, M
> Pedder, Mike
> Perry, Allen
> Pierce, Clive
> Pilling, C
> Pope, V D
> Pugh, D
> Ravetz, Jerome R
> Read, P L
> Rey, N
> Reynard, Nick
> Reynolds, David
> Roberts, D L
> Rosier, Suzanne
> Rounsevell, Mark
> Rowell, Dave
> Ryan, Sonja
> Sanderson, Michael G
> Scaife, Adam
> Sear, Chris
> Semenov, Mikhail
> Shackley, Simon
> Shao, Jianmin
> Shine, Keith P
> Simpson, I
> Simpson, V
> Sims, Graham
> Skea, Jim
> Slingo, Julia
> Smithson, Peter
> Snow, Keith
> Spellman, Greg
> Standley, Andy
> Stott, Peter
> Subak, S
> Sumner, Graham
> Sutton, R T
> Tait, Andrew
> Taylor, C M
> Tett, Simon
> Thorncroft, Chris
> Thornes, John E
> Thornton, Tim
> Thorpe, Robert
> Thuburn, John
> Todd, Martin
> Tullett, Michael
> Turner, R K
> Unwin, David
> Veal, Anthony
> Viterbo, Pedro
> Walker, Malcolm
> Wang, Kuoying
> Warrilow, David
> Washington, Richard
> Webb, Mark
> Wheeler, Tim
> Wigley, Tom
> Wilby, Rob
> Wild, Richard
> Williamson, P
> Woodward, Stephanie
> Wright, Peter
> Wynne, Brian
> Yamin, Farhana

       *Tom M.L. Wigley                        *
       *Senior Scientist                     *
       *National Center for Atmospheric Research                *
       *P.O. Box 3000                                *
       *Boulder, CO 80307-3000                    *
       *USA                                                     *
       *Phone: 303-497-2690                                     *
       *Fax: 303-497-2699                                       *
       *E-mail:                                 *