Sea Level Change...

Measuring sea level change is difficult even with the best of modern instruments.  Figuring out the sea level thousands of years ago is even harder.

We think of the rocks that form the sea bed and continents as hard, solid, stable things.  In fact they are not – over geological time scales, the rocks move, sometimes a lot.  I got a first-hand look at this on the Baltic islands of Estonia, especially Saremaa and Hiumaa.  These islands are rising out of the sea, growing a little higher and bigger each year.  If you lived there, you'd probably thing that meant the sea level was declining – that's what it looks like to you, standing on “solid” ground.  But in fact, the limestone that makes up those islands is slowing rising – and in this case, geologists know exactly why.  During the last Ice Age, an enormous mass of ice on the land pressed it down, displacing magma deep under the crust.  After the Ice Age ended (and the ice all melted), that weight was lifted – and the land is slowly resuming its natural level.  Geologists estimate that for the next 100,000 to 400,000 years, the land will continue to slowly rise.  And residents will probably still think the sea is receding :)

Spies in the Hotel Viru...

The very first time I ever visited Tallinn, Estonia, about 20 years ago back in the early '90s, I stayed in the Hotel Viru.  It was a memorably bad experience.  My bed was a straw-stuffed pallet placed on top of cinder blocks, and that was the highlight.  I stayed in the Hotel Viru again, many years later, and had a much more pleasant experience.

On my first visit there, our Estonian (though ethnic Russian) hosts warned us about the bugging of the Hotel Viru – apparently it was well-known amongst the locals.  Now 20 years later, here I am reading about it in the Smithsonian Magazine!

Kiiking...

Estonia has several interesting sports that either originated there, or were popularized there.  Kiiking, for example (watch video below).  Or wife carrying.  Or sauna rallying.  Or beer swilling.  I could go on...

I Miss Estonia...

It's been eight years or so since I last visited this little country.  I ran across this beautiful photo taken yesterday near Suurupi, Estonia, and it reminded me of my own delighted treks through the forests and backcountry of Estonia...

48 Hours in Tallinn...

I love seeing articles like this pop up in the mainstream press.  Little Estonia is being discovered!  I miss visiting there...it's been eight years now...

Estonia in the News...

Estonia has been in the news a lot recently, mainly because of its robust economic performance – by far the best in the Euro-zone.  This doesn't sit well with Paul Krugman (New York Times columnist and alledged economist, thought of by many as the world's most publicly exposed lunatic), because Estonia's stellar performance was accomplished by implementing the exact opposite of Krugman's recommendations.  Basically, Krugman thinks the way out of the economic doldrums in both the U.S. and Europe is to spend, spend, spend – and Estonia achieved its little economic miracle through quaint techniques like limited government, carefully controlled debt, flat taxes, and fostering of a pro-business environment.

In recent days, this little spat has been kicked up a notch – because Toomas Ilves (the President of Estonia) has been lambasting Krugman on Twitter.  I've spent quite a bit of time in Estonia (though I haven't been there for almost 10 years now), and I know quite a few Estonians.  I'm not a bit surprised that Mr. Ilves is right in Krugman's face.  If you read through the posts, you'll see that not only is Mr. Ilves feisty, but he's got a quick wit as well.  But many others seem to be very surprised to see Mr. Ilves defending his country, including, I'd bet, Paul Krugman.  It will be interesting to see whether and how Krugman responds to one of his victims fighting back.  My guess: he'll either not respond, or he'll respond with his classic arrogance.

My longtime readers know that I think Estonia is a very special place.  I've visited there many times, and I've explored the entire country.  Many things make it special in my mind.  Just one of them is the importance of singing to them, and the festival held in Tallinn every five years.  This festival played an important role in Estonia gaining their independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, in what has become known as “The Singing Revolution”.  This video gives you a small taste of that.  For more, I recommend watching the excellent documentary The Singing Revolution.

Seaside Limestone...

My mom sent this photo along as part of a collection of beautiful landscapes.  I've seen the photo before, though I can't recall where.  For some reason, I'm associating this with Iceland, though I'm not at all sure that's correct.

The limestone against the quiet sea instantly recalls many such scenes I saw while exploring the islands of Estonia (primarily Saaremaa and Hiiumaa, shown in Google Maps below).  It's been over five years now since my last visit to Estonia.  I hope to return one of these fine days, and bring Debbie (who's never been there) with me...




View Larger Map

Estonia vs. America...

As long-time blog readers know, I have visited little Estonia many times.  When I first visited in 1992, it was an economic wreck – only in its first year as an ex-Soviet satellite nation, and struggling with basic concepts of capitalism.  Over the years that I visited there (last time in 2004), the country adopted an enlightened tax policy, established the firm rule of law, and enacted legislation that created a very business-friendly environment.  Somehow, miraculously, they've also had a series of leaders that were not only not disastrous, but in some cases were downright visionary.

So it's interesting to look at how they fared in the recession of 2008:

In the midst of a world embroiled in economic turmoil, a few nations have managed to do surprisingly well—among them, Estonia. After near economic collapse during the 2008–2009 financial crisis, the country has managed to successfully bounce back with substantial GDP growth, a vibrant trade environment, and a notable budget surplus.

I'm not surprised, actually.

Here's a bet for you: Estonia will be amongst the first to opt out of the European Union.  The looming disaster there is going to look very ominous to one of the few high-performance economies in the EU – and given their tiny size, it's easy to predict that they'll be asked to shoulder a completely disproportionate share of the EU's miseries...

Russian Minorities in Estonia...

Regular readers know that I have visited both Estonia and Russia many times, and that I have friends there.  Many of my friends are ethnic Russians; some are ethnic Estonians.  The history of Estonia is very complicated; the country has been independent twice, for a total of well under a hundred years.  The rest of the time it has been ruled by another country.  Most recently that was the Soviet Union, which was dominated by Russians.  The history of the Soviet domination of Estonia is not pretty – many Estonians suffered greatly under Soviet rule (including many who were outright killed).  In addition, the Soviets actively suppressed the Estonian culture and language, trying to force the integration of Estonians into the Soviet Union.  So naturally once Estonia gained its independence from the Soviet Union (in 1991), there was a great deal of tension between the ethnic Russian and Estonia communities.  That tension continues to this day. 

It's easy to understand this tension in the abstract.  The history is clear.  The Estonians have good reason to be angry and resentful about their treatment at Soviet (mainly Russian) hands.  It's much harder to analyze in the concrete sense of people that you know. 

Many ethnic Russians whom I know bear no ill will toward Estonians.  They think of the historical treatment of Estonians as history, and not something they bear any personal responsibility for.  At the same time, many of them would like to continue using their language and to be free to become citizens. 

Many ethnic Estonians whom I know bear no ill will toward Russians.  They think of the historical treatment of Estonians as history, and not something they've been personally subjected to.  At the same time, most of them support their government's efforts to enforce Estonian as the country's language – and in particular to require fluency as a prerequisite for citizenship.

I don't see any easy answers out of this.  I can easily place myself in the position of any of the people I know, and think about it from their perspective.  History has dealt the people of Estonia a tough hand in current times, and I suspect the only “solution” is to let a lot of time go by.  Decades, probably, before these tensions fully subside...

Frozen Baltic Sea...

That danged global warming is at it again!  The Baltic Sea has frozen over this year (see at right, click to enlarge), something that occurs regularly but far from every year.  Every time this happens, ships get stuck in the ice.

About 15 years ago, on a very chilly winter visit to Tallinn, Estonia, I had quite an adventure on just such a frozen Baltic Sea.  I rented a car and drove out to the very end of the large peninsula just northeast of Tallin, past the small town of Rohuneeme.  The road petered out into a dirt track and ended up on the shore at the northernmost point on the peninsula.  It was quite lonely out there at the end of the road; not another soul was in sight.

The sea was frozen over that year (I think it was 1995, but I'm not certain of the date).  I was fascinated by two aspects of it – the beautiful blue color of the frozen sea ice, and the fantastically complex surface.  Sea ice is nothing at all like lake ice – there's nothing smooth about it at all.  It gives the appearance of having frozen in various sized chunks, which are then all mooshed together and frozen in random orientations. 

It was clear that the ice was frozen quite a ways down, and was quite safe to walk on – so off I went on a little hike.  I walked perhaps a mile offshore, maybe a little more.  The beauty of the blue ice entranced me, and the sense of isolation and aloneness out there was quite profound.  I had good warm clothing and sturdy boots, so I was quite comfortable.

At some point during this walk I became aware of a commotion towards the shore.  Looking that way, I saw something I certainly didn't expect: a jeep (looked like something straight out of World War II) was making it's way, fitfully, out onto the ice.  It looked like it had left the shore right where I had parked, and it was headed towards me.  A guy in the jeep was waving at me, a bit frantically and conveying some urgency. 

At the moment I thought they just figured I was some stupid tourist who'd gotten lost and was in trouble, and they were coming to rescue me.  I'd had my fill of ice-walking, so I headed back in toward them.  They kept moving toward me, but I'm not sure they were going any faster than I was – the surface was so rough that the jeep was having difficulty finding a route.  Finally, after perhaps 20 minutes had gone by, we met up.

There were two men in the jeep, fit young men who looked like military guys.  They were in uniform, but not carrying any weapons.  Neither of them spoke any English (and of course I didn't speak any Estonian).  They weren't at all unfriendly, but they made it clear they wanted me in the jeep, pronto.  So I hopped in, they turned around and headed for shore as fast as they could go.

At some point during that trip back to the shore, I noticed that both men kept glancing to the east, looking worried.  At some point I looked to see what they were looking at, and got a terrific shock – an absolutely enormous ship was bearing down on us!  After watching it for a minute or so, I realized that it was an icebreaker, larger than any icebreaker I'd ever heard of, much less seen. Its path would have taken it between where I was and the shore, making it impossible for me to walk back.  Now I knew where that sense of urgency came from!

When we got back to shore, one of the guys got on his walkie-talkie (another refugee from World War II – a monster thing that looked like it weighed 20 pounds).  He finally found someone on the other end who spoke English, and we had a strange conversation involving me, the two guys with me, and the helpful translater on the other end of the walkie-talkie.  The translater kept injecting his own disbelieving comments as I explained what I was doing out there.  Somehow none of them seemed to believe it was credible that an American would be walking on Estonian ice just for fun.  The term “crazy American” came up frequently.

Eventually they decided against summary execution, and later decided I didn't even need to be arrested.  However, they told me to follow my two rescuers off the peninsula; they wanted me out of the area.  So I got in my car and followed the two of them back south, toward Tallinn.  They stopped in the town and got out of the jeep, so I did likewise, not knowing why.  One of the guys went into a shop, had a short conversation, came out and then my two rescuers motioned for me to follow them as we marched into another shop.  This shop had two people inside: a woman perhaps 40 years old and a girl who appeared to be 13 or 14 years old.  The girl spoke English, and she was the reason we were there.

It seems my two rescuers wanted a more detailed explanation, and for that we needed someone who could better translate.  The girl (whose name I've forgotten) did an admirable job.  The older woman was her mother, and she participated in the conversation as well, with great interest, asking all sorts of questions.  She was the first person I'd run into who had no trouble understanding my desire to walk out on the ice – she was all smiles when she figured out that I simply thought it was beautiful. 

Towards the end of our conversation, my rescuers asked if there was a place in town to get dinner.  Next thing we knew, we all were invited to the shopkeeper's home for dinner, and my adventure continued with a family dinner at an Estonian home.  That dinner was a delight: the food was simple, but very good and plentiful.  My rescuers had more beers than they should have, but they were considerably more relaxed afterwards.  I don't drink beer, but it turns out that the man of the household (who was at dinner as well) shared my taste for alcoholic cider, and he and I had a few glasses with dinner.  We all stayed there talking until evening time, having a grand old time. 

None of these five Estonians had ever met an American before; from their point of view I was an exotic specimen, but not at all what they expected.  As on many other occasions in the early years of my Estonian visits, I got questions like “Do you know any movie stars?”  But I also got lots of questions about what life was really like for ordinary Americans, and we swapped many tales of life.  Naturally we both discovered that while our circumstances were different, people were still people, much the same no matter where they happen to live.

I drove (slowly and carefully!) back to Tallinn after that dinner, with the satisfaction one has after having a fine adventure.  I knew even then that this would be a memory I'd cherish...

Estonia (and the Other Baltics) Do It Right...

Little Estonia, which I've visited many times, has learned its capitalist lessons better than most.

Better than the clowns in Washington, for sure.  Said clowns should be ashamed of themselves, though I see no evidence of that...

An Estonian Observes Us...

Found in an article bemoaning the erosion of our freedoms by political correctness:

...it leads to Anna from Estonia making it a point to show visiting friends a sight they could never see in the old country. They laugh, they point, they whip out cameras and take pictures. Of the Everglades? No. Of Mount Rushmore or Lady Liberty? No.

Anna said they take pictures of the idiot signs. These she said, crack her friends up. "Caution: Coffee is hot." Apparently, elsewhere in the world, you don't need a sign to know this.

I agree with the notion that political correctness (and it's bastard son, zero tolerance) are threats to our freedom. But the example I excerpted is really something else altogether: it's the notion that we have some kind of “right” to a riskless existence, and the consequent explosion of litigation that as recently as 50 years ago would have seemed just plain silly. Can you imagine an adult in, say, the 1950s even considering the idea of suing a restaurant because they were served coffee that was too hot? I can't...

Of course I was amused to see that it was an Estonian who was doing the observation. For my readers who don't already know this, I have visited Estonia many times, and I know it quite well.

The Estonia that Anna remembers, however, is fast disappearing: ever since they became a member of the European Union, a stifling blanket of political correctness has descended upon them – one can think of it as the price paid for enormous amounts of foreign aid and investment pouring in, and for the removal of a great many trade barriers. Estonia today is far more prosperous than it was before its EU membership, but it is also in many ways a much less attractive place.

My last visit there was several years ago, but even then the character of Estonia was changing – becoming less the unique and quaint place that it was, and more just another location in an almost-homogenous EU. Tourists have poured in, and foriegners have purchased large chunks of the available real estate (especially Finns along the north coast and the western islands, and Scotch farmers in the south central farmlands). My friends there tell me that since my last visit this trend is even more pronounced.

I loved the Estonia I watched emerge from the wreckage of the Soviet Union and morph into an innovative and vibrant democracy. I like the present Estonia less. I'm not entirely sure I want to visit again...my memories may well be more pleasant than current reality...

Celebrating in Estonia...

Juri Estam has an interesting article published on Publius Pundit. It's about Estonia and Estonians, and my long-time readers will know that I have a special interest in that land. This description of the end of Estonia's first independent existence is apt:

When I think of Estonia and her forcible incorporation into the USSR by the Soviet Union, I am often reminded of Kitty Genovese, the New York City woman who, in 1964, was stabbed to death near her home in the Kew Gardens section of Queens. The Genovese case became know for the psychological phenomenon called the "bystander effect", in which violence is perpetrated on someone within hearing of neighbors, but the cries are not noticed.

But this is not a bitter article, not at all. It's a brief look back at the journey of independent Estonia, the entire history of which fits into a single person's lifetime – some elderly Estonians today can still remember the Estonia's first declaration of independence. The article's conclusion sounds very, well, American:

Soon, ceremonies will take place in the city of Parnu on the Baltic Sea in Estonia at the place where the Endla Theater -- the birthplace of Estonian independence -- was blown up by a hostile power in 1961. 90 years ago on February 23, Estonians proclaimed to the world in Parnu their desire to be free. Although actual memories of the Endla Theater now live on only in the elderly, Estonians of all ages give thanks that the only soldiers they will see in Parnu on Independence Day, other than the ones accompanying invited dignitaries, are their own. The message to everyone in the world who enjoys freedom is that one really does need to remember to give thanks in a conscious manner for liberty - something that can all too easily be replaced by a life in the absence of freedom.

Take it from the Estonians, we know what we're talking about.

And how very un-European! The majority of the ethnic Estonians I know would largely agree with Juri's sentiments in this article. The Estonian citizens I know who are ethnic Russians are decidedly more mixed in their views, leaning much more strongly towards either pro-Russian or pro-Eurosocialist views.

Estonia ranks as one of world's most free economies. I'm a bit worried about the long haul for them, because of the drag associated with being a member of the European Union (there are benefits as well, of course). Juri Estam, a prolific writer with many articles on the web, seems to share my concerns on that point. But the existence of so many Estonians of like mind with Juri Estam is cause for great hope...

The Singing Revolution...

My long-time readers know that I have a special interest in the tiny country of Estonia. Because two companies I worked for had software development teams there (in the main city, Tallinn), I visited there many times from 1994 to 2005. I've traveled extensively throughout the country and made many friends there. There are many things I cherish about Estonia, but high on the list is its recent history, beginning with the bloodless revolution that won the country's freedom from the Soviet Union in 1991. This revolution is called "The Singing Revolution", because of the important role that music – and specifically singing – played in it. I've read several books about it, and watched two documentary films. I've also learned a lot about it from several people I know who actually participated in it.

Now there's a movie about it. I only learned of this movie this morning, from this column by Brent Bozell on Yahoo News. A teaser:

How many of us know that Estonia, one of the smallest countries on the face of this earth, is responsible for one of the most extraordinary, and certainly the most unique, revolutions in modern history? How many of us know that this tiny Baltic nation defeated the Soviet Union — with a song? This is not meant as hyperbole. It is literal truth.

One of the most fascinating documentaries you will ever watch is about to make its debut around the country. Make a note of it: "The Singing Revolution." Go to the Website singingrevolution.com to learn when and where in your city it will air. Should you miss that opportunity, make it a point to rent the DVD the moment it hits the stores.

Some documentaries entertain. Some educate. "The Singing Revolution" will bring you to your feet, cheering. It is the quintessential celebration of the human spirit.

The film's web site is here. I know nothing more than what is in the column and web site linked above – but if this film comes to San Diego, I will go see it. I haven't been to a theater for something like 10 years, and thought I was never going to go again – but I'd make an exception for this movie…

Naturally, there's a clip on YouTube:

Estonia

I miss Estonia; it's been over two years since my last visit. Starting in 1993 and continuing through 2003, I made many business trips to this little country. Two different companies I worked for had software development teams there, and I met with them fairly frequently.

On most of those trips, I managed to get a weekend or two to go exploring on my own. My habit was to rent a car (in the early years, this was an adventure unto itself!), and take off on a solo expedition with only a map as my guide. On a few memorable occasions, friends from work traveled with me as guides.

My solo expeditions were always interesting and fun. Enough people spoke English so that I never had very much trouble getting answers to my (many) questions. On many occasions, a child acted as a translator for us -- they all get English in school, whereas many adults (especially outside of the three main cities) never did. Despite their reputation for reticence, the Estonians I met were never reluctant to help me. On a couple of occasions, I was invited into someone's home for a dinner and talk.

Those who know me won't be surprised that the main attractions for me were off the beaten track. I chased down famous trees, meteorite craters, the Takhuna moment to the children lost in the SS Estonia ferry sinking, remote islands, all the national parks, the "erratic boulders" of red granite from Finland dropped by the retreating glaciers on Estonia's limestone, ancient castles, wildflowers and birds. The photo above is of a tiny spit of land projecting a kilometer into the Baltic Sea from the island of Hiiumaa. Estonia has all these things in great abundance; for a traveler like me, it is a heavenly place.

In the most recent years I visited, I could see the beginning of the end of some of rural Estonia's charm. The coastal areas are being "invaded" by wealthy people (often foreigners, mostly Finns) who block off access to the coast and build a private home. Talking with some of the farmers on the northwest coast, I discovered that this was an windfall for them; some of Estonia's most impoverished people now have newfound wealth. This is easy to sympathize with, but still it is indisputable that something beautiful and peaceful is disappearing. I am glad I was able to see it before it disappeared.

On my visits after 1996, I carried a digital camera with me. I have taken thousands of photographs from all over Estonia. Many of them were previously published on a web site which I no longer have running. Some of them have been published by various government and tourist web sites in Estonia (usually, but not always, with my permission <smile>). In recent months, several people have written to ask that I publish those photos again -- so in this album I published a selection of them.

Enjoy!

Estonia Mourns

Today's news brings this sad story:

Estonia went into mourning on Sunday for two of its soldiers killed in Afghanistan - the first time the Baltic state has lost troops in the country.

Twenty-four-year-old Sergeant Kalle Torn and 33-year-old Corporal Jako Karuks, both mine-clearance specialists, were killed in the southern province of Helmand on Saturday, the Estonian Defense Ministry announced.

Estonia has about 200 troops deployed in Afghanistan and Iraq; they are a member of the "coalition of the willing", and have been ever since the NATO administration of Afghanistan and the Iraq war began. Some people I've mentioned this too have laughed at the small size of Estonia's contingent -- but that reaction misses something important. Estonia is a tiny little country with only about 1.5 million citizens -- about 1/200th the size of the U.S. In proportional terms, their contingent is about the same as 40,000 U.S. troops -- a sizable contribution, and one which I am most grateful for.

With these two casualties in Afghanistan, Estonia now has a total of four casualties between the two conflicts -- proportionally, this is like 800 U.S. casualties. Not only is their contribution substantial -- so is the price they have paid.

Thank you, Estonia, for your participation in these unhappy, but necessary, efforts to combat the evil of radical Islamic fundamentalism.
And thank you for standing by your ally -- the United States -- in its time of need...

Quote of the Day

The Russia Journal (primarily a news site about Russia) provides today’s quote from their “Sunday Sermon” piece called “Stand Up for Estonia!":

That’s what makes this important. Estonia picked itself up from the gray rubble of Soviet colonization in 1991 and transformed itself into a first-world state with a true national identity. Its success is a standing rebuke to the backwardness of what Russia remains and what other oppressed nations can become if they are left alone.

Other countries in Eastern Europe are still trying to dig out from the legacy of the Soviet past. Estonia’s clean governance, low taxes, steadily growing economy, soaring foreign investment and 4% unemployment are an amazing and atypical transformation in just a decade and a half.

The last sentence of the first paragraph above particularly resonates with me…

From the news reports I’ve read in the past 48 hours, it appears that the Estonian/Russian tensions are easing a bit, and that Russia’s cutoff of trade with Estonia is backfiring. Little Estonia is getting lots of diplomatic support, including EU resolutions, threats about Russia’s bid to join the WTO, and a resolution from the gasbags in the U.S. Senate. I can’t imagine Putin being intimidated by any of these publicly visible reactions — after all, it’s just politicians yakking away and thinking themselves important — but I do have some hope that there have been some behind-the-scenes events that have made a difference…

Estonian Riots

As many of my readers already know, for over ten year ending in 2004 I was a frequent visitor to the little Baltic country of Estonia. Two different companies that I worked for in that period had software development facilities in Tallinn, the largest city in Estonia. In that period I made quite a few friends there, and traveled extensively throughout the country. I’m very fond of Estonia and its people.

Estonia’s history is one of turmoil and conflict, and amazingly complex for such a tiny country. Of relevance to this post is its history from World War II onwards.

The entire country of Estonia was overrun by the Nazis early in the war. Some Estonians — a small, but significant minority — actively collaborated with the Nazi occupiers. The Nazis drafted some men involuntarily into its armed forces, but other Estonians volunteered — including for concentration camp guard duty and extermination squad duty. There was also an active resistance against the Nazis, in which a number of Estonians were killed or injured. During this period there was a very small community of ethnic Russian people in Estonia, variously estimated at 1.5% to 3.5% of the total population.

Later in the war, the Soviet Army overran Estonia from the other direction. Just as with the Nazis, a small but significant minority of Estonians collaborated with the Soviets. There were Estonian units in the Soviet Army, but the most apparent collaboration was political — some ethnic Estonians joined the Communist party and became local implementors of the Soviet domination. Again, just as with the Nazis, there was an active military resistance to the Soviet occupation that wasn’t stamped out until the 1960s. During this period of Soviet occupation, hundreds of thousands of ethnic Russians emigrated to Estonia, which had become part of the Soviet Union. Most of these Russian immigrants were concentrated in approximately half the land area of the country, where they became the overwhelming majority of the population. Other parts of the country were still ethnic Estonian in majority. Depending on whether you count military personnel (the Soviets had several large military facilities in Estonia), and depending on who did the counting, the ethnic Russians at their peak formed between 45% and 65% of the total population of the country.

The Soviet occupation of Estonia lasted for over 40 years, until 1991. During this period, an entire generation of Estonians experienced life as a subjugated, second-class people. Many ethnic Russians in Estonia deny this, but the evidence seems incontrovertible to me — educational opportunity, economic opportunity, and freedom of movement were all different (and worse) for the ethnic Estonians. In 1991, as the Soviet Union was falling apart, ethnic Estonians (and a few ethnic Russians) formed a separatist movement and carried out an almost non-violent “singing revolution” that won Estonia’s independence.

After the Soviet withdrew their military, and after the initial waves of emigration (mainly ethnic Russians returning to Russia) and immigration (mainly ethnic Estonians who had escaped the occupations returning to their native land), the population over the whole country has settled down to roughly 60% ethnic Estonian and 40% ethnic Russian. Different sources for these numbers vary by a surprising amount even today, and of course there are other ethnic groups in Estonia as well.

For the past 16 years, since independence from the Soviet Union, little Estonia has been dealing with the tensions between these two ethnic communities. My ethnic Estonian friends largely perceive the ethnic Russians as the leftovers of a hated oppressor, as interlopers, and mainly interested in returning Estonia to Russia. My ethnic Russian friends have a much more varied set of perceptions and attitudes. Some of them appear to be exactly what the ethnic Estonians fear. Some of them are much more moderate, especially with respect to rejoining Russia. Most of them have learned enough Estonian to become citizens; some of them are quite fluent in Estonian. Only one amongst all my ethnic Russian friends ever stated assimilation into Estonian culture as an objective — all the rest seem, actively or passively, to be committed to keeping their Russian culture. For example, most of the children of my ethnic Russian friends attend Russian-language schools.

This past week, the Estonian government decided to move a monument in Tallinn out of the Old Town area to a military cemetery on the outskirts of the city. This particular monument had been erected by the Soviets in honor of their soldiers who were killed while driving the Nazis from Estonia. Many ethnic Estonians were insulted by this monument to an oppressor’s army — especially because it stood in the heart of Estonian history and culture: the Old Town of Tallinn. It was a highly visible reminder of the Soviet Army that not only drove out the reviled Nazis, but also forcibly evicted thousands of Estonians, herded them off to gulags where many died, and stomped the Estonian resistance out of existence. This Soviet Army was the instrument that enabled their oppression, and they resented this memorial to it. The ethnic Russians, on the other hand, see this memorial as honoring their fallen comrades who had been engaged in a wholly honorable duty: clearing the fair land of Estonia of the execrable Nazis. To them, moving the monument was an insult to heroes — and inexplicable, as the Estonians were themselves the great beneficiaries of their fighting.

So the movement of the monument was guaranteed to whip up tensions, as that action was keenly felt by the emotions of both groups. But to make matters worse, it appears that Russian intelligence was active amongst several ethnic Russian groups inside Estonia, doing everything they could to make the tensions even higher. Their objective: to topple the current government of Estonia, which the Russians perceive (quite correctly, I think) as unfriendly to their interests. The best documented example of their actions I’ve been able to find is the planting of outrageous stories in Russian-language newspapers, both in Estonia and in Russia. For example, one of these stories claimed that the Estonian government had not moved the monument in whole, but had instead hacked it up into dozens of pieces and reassembled it in a sloppy, disrespectful manner. This story is now known to have been written in Russia (presumably by the foreign intelligence agency), then distributed through the leader of a militant Russian group in Estonia (this leader is now under arrest). Russian intelligence stands accused of many other actions to raise tensions as well. Yesterday a delegation of Russian diplomats arrived in Tallinn for discussions — and before they left, they announced that their goal was to bring down the current Estonian government!

Over the past few days, thousands of people in several Estonian cities have rioted. Tallinn’s Old Town area saw the most violence and damage; one man was killed and dozens were injured. About 1,000 people were arrested, though most have been released. Tensions between the ethnic Estonian and ethnic Russian communities are very high; worse, I think, than even immediately following independence from the Soviet Union.

My ethnic Estonian friends are all worried that Russia will use these recent events and increasing tensions as a pretext to invade and re-occupy Estonia. At least one of my friends is worried enough to start sending her family and assets out of the country. I think this is overreaction, and quite premature, but I can’t blame them for their fear and concern. The EU and NATO memberships aren’t likely to translate into direct military defense if it were needed. I believe Finland, the U.S., Britain, and Poland are the most likely military forces who actually would come to Estonia’s aid — and only the Finns could do so very quickly.

My ethnic Russian friends seem much less concerned about a Russian invasion (and, so far as I know, none of them would welcome it). They are more inclined to believe that the Russian government will, at most, try to get a pro-Russian government installed in Tallinn. I think this is most likely myself; it would be quite a gamble for Russia to simply annex Estonia. On the other hand, as an American friend of mine commented yesterday, from Russia’s perspective the West probably looks quite wimpy right now — it’s not inconceivable that the Russians have talked themselves into believing that the West would not come to Estonia’s aid. We Americans are quite tied up now with various aspects of the global war on terror, plus the ongoing tension with Iran. The British don’t look like they’d be real excited about a front in Europe. Poland would almost certainly be willing, but their capabilities are limited. The Finns are hard to read — they’re committed by treaty to defend Estonia, and there are now substantial Finnish assets in Estonia — but on the other hand their politics are not generally supportive of military intervention. So I can make the case myself for Russia feeling as though they might be able to get away with retaking Estonia — but I believe they’d be making a terrible mistake (for Russia) by doing so.

More than anything, I just hate seeing these events happen to little Estonia, the Baltic land that I’ve come to love. All my friends are agitated by this, whatever side of the fence they’re on. And it’s very hard to see any path out of this mess that is good for everyone — I’m afraid that resolution likely means that one side or the other “wins” and the other “loses", and that’s a darned shame…

Estonian Fires

I associate forest fires primarily with dry, hot conditions — the conditions we have in Southern California every year, and also in much of the rest of the Western U.S. Of course we also have forest fires in damper places, such as Maine and Minnesota. But somehow Estonia has always seemed to me like it should be relatively immune to fires, with its extensive swamps and utter lack of anything even remotely resembling a desert. So it was with some surprise that I read this story:

TALLINN - With temperatures above 30 degrees Celsius and no rain for quite a while, firefighters have been frantically trying to put out 22 forest fires, the largest of which are burning through Kurtna and Kuusalu.

About 180 hectares of woods are ablaze in Kurtna, located in the northeastern Ida-Virumaa region. In Kuusalu, some 30 kilometers east of Tallinn, 20 hectares of forest are burning, the Rescue Board duty officer told the Baltic News Service.

Soon after midday on July 11, rescuers were informed about a fire in the western Laane County where two hectares of fields were in flames.

Fire fighting also continues on Saaremaa Island and in Jarva County, where forests have been burning for several days now.

For the Celsius-challenged out there, 30C is about 86F — not quite as hot as we are, but certainly not cool. And a quick look at the relative humidity shows that it’s 50% right now, so (compare to us) its pretty muggy there. But 22 forest fires! One hectare is about two and a half acres, so these are (by our standards) very small forest fires. No area of Estonia is truly remote, though there are plenty of areas without established roads. I know all of the areas with fires quite well; the fires in Kurtna and Saaremaa particularly surprise me, as they’re relatively close to “civilization”. Fires that small and that close to civilization here would be extinguished with great speed. I can only guess why that’s not true in Estonia: that they don’t have the equipment and organization that we do, because they don’t have forest fires that often. But I’m just guessing…

EU Constitution

Estonia has become the 15th country to ratify the European Union Constitution. France and the Netherlands have already rejected it (by referendum), so the commonly held notion is that further votes are useless. However, in actual fact the EU constitution takes force when the last of the 25 EU member countries ratifies, so each countries ratification is important. Further, the rules governing when the EU constitution takes force require only that the member countries ratify the constitution; the rules do not specify how the ratification is to occur. In particular, it is not certain that the failure of referendums actually prohibits ratification by the government (although both France and the Netherlands have said they will abide by the referendum results).

I downloaded the English text of the EU constitution a few months ago, and made a good faith attempt to read it. It is over 400 pages long, very dense, rich with jargon — and looks less like what this American thinks of as a “constitution” and more like a liberal, politically correct, meandering manifesto. I got through perhaps 100 pages before I just could not take it anymore…

My predictions on the EU are these:

— Even without ratifying the “constitution", the EU is likely to collapse under its own weight. Take just one requirement: the translation of all EU documents into the native language of every member country. Already this is causing delays of years in the legislative and treaty efforts, as there aren’t enough translators to do the job. And at some point the people in the member states are going to wake up and realize that the EU’s top-heavy bureaucracy is serving its own interests above those of the member countries — and there will be a revolt (hopefully of the ballot-box kind).

— If the EU constitution is ever ratified, the process described above will accelerate tremendously — but a revolt will be vastly more difficult to accomplish.

— If the EU constitution is ever ratified, everything the EU tries to accomplish will be held up by endless court cases arguing about the interpretation of the constitution. If you think the squabbling in the U.S. is bad, just wait until you see what happens when the lawyers have over 400 pages of “guidance” to argue about!

The cartoon above right was sent to me by one of my friends in Estonia. He tells me that the caption reads (translated) like this: “We’ll get it ratified, turn up sleeves and start to bump off the ones who are not with us…” I think that cartoonist has the bureaucracy nailed perfectly — getting it ratified by any means necessary is precisely their agenda. And if they manage to do so, then watch out! So far as I can tell by my correspondence with several Estonians, the general population really doesn’t seem to care very much about the EU constitution, or about other aspects of the EU, such as adoption of the Euro. It’s clear from the polls (and my friends confirm this) that popular support for adopting the Euro has declined — but it’s also true that in general people there have only a vague understanding of the issues, pro and con. In other words, it’s just like here in the U.S. — only a few crazy people actually care enough about these things to become well informed. For example, none of my Estonian friends — whether ethnic Russians or Estonians — even claim to have read the EU constitution. One friend tells me that many members of parliment — the legislative body that votes on ratification in Estonia — have not read the EU constitution that they just voted to ratify. Apathy runs deep, apparently.