Friday, October 26, 2007

Reader Report...

Sawdave reports:
Hi i went to 511.com and then used a link to 211 which led to a link to sdcdpw dot org which showed that as of 6 pm lyons valley was closed at skyline, and skyline was closed at lyons valley.

translation, cant go up the hill on skyline, ALSO cant go over on kimball grade into Lee valley on Lyons valley.

of course 4 corners will ahve checkpoint as it is next to active fire.

Sorry

Reader Question...

From an anonymous commenter:
Can anyone confirm if access to Lee Valley is possible; and if so, which way is best to enter? Thanks for any accurate info - from a Jamulian homeowner

Sunset from Lyons Peak...

A beautiful scene from Lyons Peak, if you can put the reasons for the haze out of your mind for a moment...

Reader Report...

From an anonymous commenter:
As of 10 minutes ago, about 1705, the checkpoint at Pius X = Jamul Drive/Lyons valley. has been moved.

Its up on skyline where you go left for lawson vally and right for lee valley.

No Lawson people will be let back in , according to the officer left behind to direct the deconstruction of the Pius X roadblock.

people are causing problems by using various dirt trails to by passs the roadblocks, making the LEOs very less inclined to help us.

saw amn.
Thanks for the update!

Harris Fire Update...

Here's the current view from the east-looking camera on Lyons Peak. This plume is coming from, as best I can tell, from right around the intersection of Lyons Valley Road and the Barrett Lake access road, and the hill that rises to the south of there.

Harris Fire Update...

Here's the latest pass of MODIS satellite thermal imagery. The same area we've been following all afternoon. On this pass, there's a hotspot showing on the southern flank of Lawson Peak, right where I guessed the latest flareup started (from the smoke visible on the Lyons Peak cameras).

The only real news in this imagery is the extent of the currently burning part. Or rather, the part burning a few hours ago when the satellite made the pass that collected this data – that would have been at the peak of the flareup...

Reader Report...

Tom S. reports:
I just drove down Skyline Truck to the intersection with LV by the
school. They had just opened up Skyline Truck, and the CHP said it
would be open to "the top of the grade". But he said if I left I might
not be able to get back in, as it could change at any time. He said
it had changed about 10 times today. I drove down LV road and there
was another road block at Jamul Drive. They said if I left I might
well not be able to get back in, so I decided to turn around, and pick
up my dogs and son who are at friends' houses tomorrow.

Thanks again for your great blogging. It has really helped me try to
understand where things are.
Thanks, Tom. And you're very welcome...

Reader Report...

Cris reports:
He is home-thanks!
But that smoke on the other side on Lyons Valley doesn't look too good...
Glad to hear Mike made it home ok. I'm ready to go home myself!

Reader Report...

CLW reports:
Just spoke w/the CHP at the corner of Lyons Vly and Skyline Truck Trail. He has orders of a hard closure for this area of Jamul Highlands, but his Sergent just went down the hill to see about opening it up. Some people have been escorted in. Told me to be patient they are trying to get us home. He was very polite and helpful!
Thanks!

Reader Report...

An anonyomous commentor reports:
94 just opened back up!
Yay! Now maybe Mike W. can get home!

Reader Report...

From Cris W.:
We got home today to Hillside near Simpson's, no stops at all anywhere on 94. Then my husband Mike went out to get the mail in El Cajon. He's still trying to get back home!
Hope he makes it soon, Cris. Please let us know if you hear anything about the situation up towards Lawson Valley...

Reader Question...

From CLW:
Do we know if they're going to open up Lyons Valley Rd by Skyline Truck Trail and Jamul Highlands Area?? Some of our family made it in this morning, but then they closed the road again and now several families are split up. If anyone had any info please let us know.

Thanks!!
Do any of my readers know?

Reader Report

From fellow Jamulian blogger Bob Clay:
211 tells me that "West Jamul" is open. I came home to my house on Pleasant View LN OK, which is between St Pius and the Primary School. After that my folks came home to all the way to Lawson Valley. When my wife tried to come home, she got turned around at the corner of Jamul DR and Lyons Valley RD. The road block seems to keep moving around and occasionally disappears.

Most frustrating for my wife, who had three cats and a canary with her. You could walk to our house from where she got turned around if there were no animals to carry.

Any information on what is going on currently would be appreciated. I called the Highway Patrol since they were manning the checkpoints and I basically got a bunch of useless smart ass answers.
From all I've been able to tell, the situation has been very fluid today. As best I can tell, this reflects the changing situation – especially as regards the big flareup I've been following all day. I have no sense that any authorities are being arbitrary and capricious. Chaotic, yes, but then, this is truly a chaotic situation…

Reader Reports...

From sawdave:
Hi Anon, thanks for the up to the minute update!

Breeze here by Catholic church is onshore, not quite steady at estimated 5-10 mph.

It was reported to me that Dorthy from twisted scissors salon in Jamul, who lives in Dulzura, lost her home. I think it was in the area east of Romo and before you drop down into the valley where barret is.

If any news is available on what parts of deerhorn and honey springs burned it would be appreciated.

i heard rumors from the jamul drive checkpoint on Wednesday, but dont watn to pass tehm on until source is more reliable.

Thanks again Silly!
sawdave
From Linda I:
Diane and Paul Jacob currently live in Steele Canyon Golf course estates.
Please note that the list circulating is not 100% accurate. It listed our brother-in-laws parents house in Deerhorn Valley as destroyed and actually just two outbuildings burned. (Doublechecked this afternoon)
From an anonymous commenter:
Thank you for all your updates, now that the fire is out by the star's homes in Malibu, the rest of the fires don't exist anymore. Does anyone know if the fire crossed Lyons Valley Road just east of Four Corners? My mother-in-law lives there and we have not been able to get any solid information.
Thank you, one and all...

Reader Report...

From (presumably) a fellow evacuee, staying at Steele Canyon:
I'm still at Steele Canyon. News that you may already know. I just talked to a fireman. There are currently 50 engines out there, and lots of air power. They are using the massive plane from Canada that fills up at Lake Elsinore. The firemen set a back fire today and that is what has caused most of the smoke. I asked if they were able to maintain the line they drew (Four Corners, Lyons Valley area) and the reply was that they are trying their best.

There is a list distributed here daily of address of houses destroyed or damaged. It is not complete, and covers the whole county, but it was 9 pages of small print this morning, and there will be a new list tomorrow as they assess. There is also a map posted of what areas have burned so far. The briefings are at 10 am and 8 pm. We have direct access to Diane Jacobs daily and to the head fire people as well. They take as much time as needed to answer all the questions.
Thank you so much for this report. My readers and I would appreciate further reports from these briefings, or any other sources of solid information... I believe Diane Jacobs and her husband live in Deerhorn Valley – does anyone know if her home is ok?

Harris Fire Update...

Here's the latest MODIS satellite thermal imagery; just came through in the past few minutes. The only hotspot left on the Harris Fire is the one threatening our home. The red splotches are the actively burning areas detected on the current pass. If there were orange splotches, they'd indicate spots that were burning within the past 24 hours, but not on this pass. The black spots are spots that were burning more than 24 hours ago, and the grey were burning more than 48 hours ago.

The area where I suspect the current flareup originated is just north (up) from the center of the row of four red splotches forming the northern flank of the fire in this data. Or home is just on the other side of the ridge that's north of the current fire location. You can imagine why we've been losing a lot of sleep this week, can't you?

If you'd like more information about where I obtain this data (and other information), check out the “Wildfire Information” link in the sidebar at right, just below the Day-by-Day cartoon. That will take you to a post I dedicated to exactly this topic…

Harris Flareup Update...

Looks to me like this flareup is on it's way to being history. I've now had several readers write in about the firefight against this flareup – very quick action by both ground crews and lots of aircraft. On several occasions, I've even caught aircraft in the Lyons Peak cameras.

Once again: thank you, firefighters!

After seeing the animations I referenced in a previous post, I got out my maps and tried to estimate where that northern flareup originated. I believe it was on the southern flank of Lawson Peak, almost due south of the peak, between halfway and two thirds of the way down the slope. That's way too close for comfort!

Harris Flareup Animations

These are courtesy of the HPWREN site, which is the organization that supplies the photos I've been using this week.

There are two animations pertinent to this flareup: from 9 to 12 this morning, and from 12 to now. I can see from these that there are two separate, nearly simultaneous flareups. The northern one (left) appears to have started on or possibly even north of Lyons Valley Road.

The most comforting part of these movies is the last part of the second one – the progress the firefighters are making is very evident...

Harris Flareup Update...

This is looking much better. The one ugly gray plume left is the furthest one from Lawson Valley; looks like it's near the dam on Barrett Lake, likely on the west side. The earlier fires even further out (in Hauser Canyon) are no longer in evidence.

My stomach is starting to untie itself...

Reader Report...

Linda I. reports:
94 appears closed to eastbound, probably to prevent traffic from interfering with emergency crews.

Ron Muller tells us there are 5 or 6 water trucks roaming Rudnick. We are trying to get them to issue us a windshield number so we can go set a pump at the lake (really a pond). We have one last chance to get in with the 1 water truck remaining here at our house and it might be our only ticket in. Grandpa tells us there is a steady stream of aircraft.
: (
Scary moments for us and our neighbors in Lawson Valley…

Harris Flareup Update...

If you look carefully at the base of the northern end of this flareup (to the left side of where the smoke is emerging), you can see that the flareup is greatly reduced in intensity in that area. I think it would be reasonable to attribute that to the firefighter's actions (including, possibly, air resources), as that's an area that I know is full of fuel, and I can't imagine why it would go out by itself.

Compared with a few days ago, when there were dozens and dozens of hotspots and flareups throughout the county, there should be lots of both ground and air resources to throw at this. Hopefully that's exactly what's happening…

The bottom photo shows the view to the north from Lyons Peak, with that horrible pall of smoke. A couple of hours ago, we thought the danger was over and we were going home. Now we're back to wondering whether we're going to have a home…

Reader Report...

A reader writes with this:
Hi SL, its hard to tell from the angle of the photo, but it appears tht maybe the fire is mostly burning downhill towards Lyons Valley Road, and the area from where the Drinkard trailer has been parked on the side of the road, and the turnoff to go fishing at barrett?

It would be very dangerous to put crews above any active fire that size, but especially while its growing like that.

Below there would be lots of rocks and boulders tumbling down as chaparral holding them burns, also prob some burning limbs and such.

We did see lots of apparatus scurrying around in RSD and also in our area by Pius X when we returned home about 1300.

I hope they can get a line on it and keep it in between the lake and what already burned in the horse fire.

I hope it has not jumped Lyons or skyline in the area around four corners.

hang in there, the folks over here are hoping and praying for you all and the FF and our peeps in Deerhorn/upper honey springs
Thank you for that report, and the good wishes.

I may be fooling myself, but my last couple of peeks at the east-looking camera look a little bit better to me...

Harris Flareup Update...

This flareup is growing very quickly. As best I can tell, the northernmost (leftmost) reach of it is in the near the intersection of Lyons Valley Road and the access road to Barrett Lake. The smoke is thick, dark gray, and ugly – new fuel is burning.

The winds appear to be to the north or maybe a little northeast. The pall of smoke extends to the northwest, however – directly over our home, and therefore very worrisome, as that indicates the probable direction the fire will burn.

The rightmost extent looks like it's burning in the western reaches of Hauser Canyon.

As always, more specific information would be greatly appreciated.

We need those firefighters and aircraft…

Flareup on the Harris Fire

This is very worrisome for us – it appears to be directly upwind from our home.

This is the view from the east-looking camera on Lyons Peak.

Reader Report...

Linda I., on hearing of the on-again, off-again lifting of the evacuation order, ran up the road from her house to see what was going on. She was able to confirm that there is now a roadblock on Skyline Truck Trail (toward the top of the hill east of Jamul) and that cars are being turned back.

Double dang!

Reader Reports...

Dang! Two readers have reported that the entry into Lawson Valley is closed:
Hi as of 12:05 law enforcement officers (Leos) PA-ed the line of cars waiting to get by the checkpoitn at L VLY and Skyline by the eelmentary school. PA was so loud we could here it, since the cars are backed down to the Olive Grove at Lazy M ranch. (just past 1 mile marker on L VLY )

"Due to flareup the road is again closed at skyline and lawson Valley"

I take this to mean they will not let Lawson and Lee Valley rsidents through right now.

The flare up looks pretty bad from here just uphill from the catholic church.

FYI, hope this helps, sorry for the bad news, sawdave.
And this:
The police let me past the roadblock at the start of Skyline Truck Trail going north with ID and said I would be able to come and go. But when I tried to leave to check out of the motel, they said if I left, I would not be able to come back. Also, they were turning all cars back (there was a long line) at the roadblock. They said it had been changed into a "hard closure" and that they were not even letting some emergency vehicles through. I don't know what the story is. Confusion or some change in fire status.
We can see smoke to the east of Lyons Peak, from two hotspots near Barrett Lake; this seems the likely cause.

Dang it!

Reader Report...

Mike S. reports:
Tom: The roads are open into Lawson Valley, they are checking ID for residents only at the beginning of Skyline Truck Trail. The turn off of Skyline to the south though is still closed.
I also called Linda I. and she confirmed that residents are being allowed into Lawson Valley. We're going home!

Reader Report...

From Linda I., a very welcome report for us:
Just came back from Lawson Valley. We were up there last night because of the again mandatory evacuation. Had to stay and take care of Grandpa and his place! The fire had jumped Honey Springs at 4 corners so they were concerned and did a reverse 911 and then a very stern door to door. When we saw at about 10:00 last night that they had a handle on it I came home and Robby stayed. There was no sign of the many police who had been there earlier. The road block was gone from Lawson Valley Rd. so I assumed I could get back up there this morning.
I needed to take Grandpa his medicine so I tried to run the checkpoint after unsuccessfully trying to persuade the Highway Patrol. He backed up faster than I could go forward!
But I pleaded and left my license said give me 45 minutes.
Well when I came down they have now opened it to residents all the way up. However I just talked to a friend and she said 94 by Steele Canyon is rather backed up but open.
Glad this is over for now.
I hate Santa Ana winds!
God Bless!
Linda

(from a follow-up email):

I forgot to add Tom that Proctor Valley is open.
Also here are still roadblocks at both of the ends of Lyons Valley Road, by the schools and at the top by Lawson Valley. I am really not sure if that is cleared for residents yet.
Thanks for keeping everyone posted.
Thanks, Linda. That bit about trying to run the checkpoint raised a cheer in Chula Vista…

More Reader Reports...

First this report from Loretta:
I am in the Animal Rescue Reserve and I was able to drive a little ways past the schools on Lyons Valley Rd. The houses looked fine up to Rocky Mountain Rd?? I didn't go any farther. Houses on Rocky Mt road looked fine also.
And now this one from Bob C.:
I am back in my house as of ~ 8 am this morning. My house is between the primary school and the St. Pius X Church. My folks still can't get back yet as the road is blocked on Lyons valley just beyond my street.
Bob didn't mention this, but I know he didn't run around any roadblocks or anything: the western parts of Jamul have had the evacuation orders lifted.

Thank you, Loretta and Bob. People in our area really appreciate the updates…

A Reader Reports...

Just received this by email from Sally H.:
Thanks for your posts. I am heading to SD to fetch my mom back here to Springville, CA. My brother was able to get in to Dulzura on Wednesday evening. All structures in Dulzura Proper were looking good. San Diego Gas and Electric had requested permission to park on our land by the CDF station and were starting to get electricity back up. Your posts were wonderful. I just LOVE the internet. Thanks again.
You're very welcome, Sally. And thank you for both the report and the kind words...

Poomacha Fire...

I haven't posted much about the Poomacha Fire, burning in the north part of San Diego County. Judging by the latest satellite data, it is by far the biggest remaining active fire in our county. For any of you who love the backcountry of San Diego County, as we do, this is terrible news.

The most actively burning part is north of the peak and the telescope site, and its burning into some of the most remote chaparral and high desert ecosystems in our county. Access is difficult in there, so I suspect there will be even more dependence on air resources than elsewhere. I hope the firefighters can save some of this area…

Harris Fire Update...

All the information I can get my hands on looks like good news to me. First, the top photo is the north-looking camera on Lyons Peak. There is no fresh smoke visible anywhere, and certainly not in Lawson Valley, where our home is. Given the word put out at the briefing (mentioned in my previous post), this must mean that the firefighters were successful at holding the line down around Lyons Valley Road.

Thank you, firefighters. We don't have the words…

This second photo is the camera looking west from Lyons Peak, toward the town of Jamul and the coast. There's not even a wisp of smoke visible. All the hills and mountains that have been obscured for days are now clearly visible.

On the east camera (which I have not posted), you can see some smoke hanging in the Barrett Canyon and Hauser Canyon areas. The south-looking camera shows no fresh smoke over Deerhorn Valley, but the entire view looks monochromatic – shades of grays. I hope, for the sake of the folks who live in Deerhorn Valley, that we're seeing an artifact of the camera and the light, and not reality.

Finally, here's the latest MODIS satellite thermal imagery of the Harris Fire. The first thing to note is that there are no red splotches at all: the satellite did not detect any hotspots on its last pass. The orange splotches were hotspots within the past 24 hours, but not any longer.

It all looks good.

If any of my readers have personal knowledge of conditions on the ground, or if you have attended briefings where good information was put out, please write me (the email address is at right, down toward the bottom) or leave a comment.

A Plea...

An anonymous commenter on the previous post notes that there are twice-daily briefings at Steele Canyon High School on the local situation. At a briefing yesterday, they heard that the Lawson Valley area was at risk, and that they talked about stationing engines on the north side of Lawson Valley (near Loveland reservoir) as a next line of defense.

That's not good news, but it is good information. The commenter recommended that I attend the briefings, but I am far away in Chula Vista (evacuated) and cannot. Hence my plea: if any of my readers can attend these briefings and report on them – either by email to me personally, or in a comment – I'd sure appreciate it. On a similar note, if there are any such briefings where good local information is put out (for any locality), I'd be happy to do the same.