Konani, and a few more ponders...

Konani, and a few more ponders...  That's the latest iteration of this cute little guy's name, pronounced co-NAH-knee.  I'm not sure how long this one will last :)  Debbie's been going through names at a record-setting pace, and I can no longer keep up.  If kittens pay any attention to what people call them, this must be one terminally confused little cat!

If you know Debbie at all, you'll be unsurprised that Konani is getting lots of attention.  He's still in isolation, in our basement bathroom – but he gets taken on “trips” frequently, usually to our office, for a little one-on-one attention.  Today we visit the vet with him to get clearance for him to join the rest of our kitties.  Yesterday he got some extra attention from our friend Michelle H.  This little guy is much more interested in people than most of our cats are, and is completely unafraid of strangers.  That's slightly unusual in cats, but even more unusual is that he fetches a little ball and brings it back to be thrown again.  We have one other cat (Jahar, our Savannah cat) who does that, but of all the cats we've owned we've never had another who did so.

Yesterday morning I drove up to visit with my brother Scott, near Newton, Utah.  The view on the last few miles was simply breathtaking – a near-180° panorama of the snow-covered Wasatch Mountains, to the east.  His cabin was very homey looking in the snow!

Last night Debbie and I drive down to Salt Lake City (SLC) to meet up with our friend Doug W.  We took the opportunity to stock up on wine and beer at the (much larger) SLC State Liquor Store, then met him at (of course!) the Red Iguana.  Debbie and I both ordered the special (chicken poblano with grilled shrimp) because it sounded so good – and it was!  It wasn't the stuffed poblano pepper I was expecting, though.  This was a grilled chicken breast with a poblano pepper butterflied on top of it, then the whole thing drenched in a sauce that was just heavenly.  The grilled shrimp were on top of that concoction, just sitting there like little presents.  We had very happy tummies!  Great company and great food is sure a tough combination to beat...

Doug and his wife Dee live near San Diego, but are up here to attend a conference for a few days.  Dee decided to pursue her genealogy research in the LDS church's facility here instead of joining us at dinner.  She doesn't often get access to a vast library of microfilmed documents like they have here, so being the hard core genealogist that she is, she took a few granola bars into the basement research facility and looked at microfilms instead of having a meal with us at the Red Iguana.  That's what I call dedication!  I tried to imagine making such a sacrifice ... but I didn't get very far :)

I've been accumulating a few photos over the last couple of days that I've neglected to share.  These are all from around our yard.  The first photo is from Saturday afternoon, as I was plowing our driveway.  The sun, not far from setting, peeked through a hole in the clouds to our southwest, illuminating the Wellsville Mountains foothills there.  Beautiful!  The second photo I took on Sunday, looking to our northeast from a second floor window in our house.  This was also near sunset, in a few moments when the clouds clear (that day was nearly solid clouds except for a few minutes of sunshine).  The last two photos I took yesterday, when we actually had some sunshine.  We have icicles everywhere now because of the combination of low temperatures (under 20°F).  On my drive up to see my brother Scott yesterday, I saw some houses with 6' long icicles hanging from south-facing roofs.  Amazing to see!

All the wet snow we got has caused a bit of damage to our landscaping.  We have two pines near the house that have lost large branches (one of them is 5" in diameter).  Most likely we'll find more damage elsewhere, once the snow melts enough to let us walk around.  Beautiful but dangerous, that snow is...

Remember the derby cars sawed in my shop last week?

Remember the derby cars sawed in my shop last week?  Alan L. sent over this photo of Nick L. with his finished “wookie board” car.  Nice!

Nick's dad is quite a talented photographer, no?

This is being reported...

This is being reported ... as the sinking of a battleship, to make an artificial reef.

Uh, no.

That's not a battleship, not even in the Mexican Navy.  It's just barely a ship, for crying out loud.

But the video is cool!

We're so glad we left California...

We're so glad we left California...  After reading this, I wonder if Victor Davis Hanson might be following us someday soon.  Depressing, that piece is, if you ever loved California...

You don't often hear something like this...

You don't often hear something like this ... from a dedicated progressive.  Just listen!

I want you to know...

I want you to know ... that Mia Love is a Utahan, and a Republican representative to Congress.  Look what she's proposing.  Ain't it wonderful?  I estimate its chance of passage at about 0.0000048%, give or take a few millionths.  But we can dream, can't we?

Wait a minute...

Wait a minute...  In last night's Iowa caucuses, on the Democratic side there were six precincts where the ballots were tied – evenly split between The Hillary and The Bern.  So what did they do?  They tossed a coin to decide it.  That's fair enough; in a tie they break it by randomly choosing a winner.

But...

In all six of these tied precincts, The Hillary's people won the toss.  What's the chances of that?  For a geek like me, that's a trivial question.  Assuming the coin tosses really are random, there's exactly one chance in sixty-four that Hillary (or Bernie) would win all six of them.  If it had gone the other way (that is, Bernie winning all six), would that have changed the election results?  I'm not sure, as the Democrats have a less-than-transparent mechanism, population-based, for deciding how much weight to place on each precinct's votes.  If the precincts decided by a coin toss are small (in population), as is most likely, then their cumulative effect might not be enough to change the outcome.  But we don't know that – at least not now – and given the shenanigans the Clinton dynasty is justly famous for, I find that ... at least unsettling, and possibly suspicious.

I'd sure like to know whether if Bernie had won tosses, he'd be the winner...

Meanwhile, Scott Adams is broadly hinting that it's possible the Republican caucuses were rigged.  The most persuasive piece of “evidence” he offered (assuming it's accurate) is that Microsoft supplied the software that totaled the Republican results, Rubio's biggest donor was Microsoft, and Rubio is a big-but-plausible winner.  Hmmm...

Comet 67P...

Comet 67P...  Every time I look at one of these images, I marvel that I live in an age where I can sit in my living room and look at photos taken just hours ago by a camera located very nearby a comet! 

When I was a boy on our farm in New Jersey, comets were largely mysterious objects about which there was far more speculation than actual knowledge.  Not so many years later, we have sent robotic explorers to two comets, we have several more such explorers that will be visiting, and we've gained an enormous amount of concrete knowledge about comets – including magnificent photos like these, streaming back from the Rosetta spacecraft.  While there are still many mysteries about comets (especially about their origins), there's a solid base of knowledge and understanding now – there's more knowledge than speculation...

So the Iowa caucuses are over...

So the Iowa caucuses are over...  What did we learn?

Not much, I think.  The big loser would appear to be The Hillary – a tie with an octogenarian socialist is pretty far removed from the expected coronation.  It's only one tiny step from losing to the octogenarian socialist.

On the Republican side, there were three viable candidates going into the caucuses (Cruz, Trump, Rubio) ... and there are three viable candidates coming out.  The three of them finished less than 5 points away from each other, which I'll call a tie for statistical purposes.  So ... a great, big nothing-burger.

Another loser (but this is almost an evergreen assertion these days): the polls.  Not a single one of them correctly predicted this outcome.  Everybody was surprised by (a) Trump's loss, slight as it was, and (b) Rubio's near-tie.  My takeaway from this is the same as my takeaway from the pollsters in the 2012 election: political pollsters and weather forecasters are the only two occupations I know of where getting the wrong answer most of the time isn't career-threatening (I'm looking at you, weather forecasters of northern Utah last week!).  We shouldn't give either group any credibility in our thinking.

I'm feeling ... very reinforced in my lack of excitement and engagement with this year's Presidential contest.  We still have five viable candidates (Clinton, Cruz, Trump, Sanders, Rubio), not one of which I'd look forward to having as my President.

My favorite observation about the evening, made by several people in several forms: the alleged party of old white men (the Republicans) gave over 60% of their votes to (relatively) young minorities, while the allegedly minority-friendly party of the people (the Democrats) gave 99.4% of their vote to old white folks...

An amazing visualization tool...

An amazing visualization tool...  Free, on the web, and it works in your favorite web browser.  It's called “earth”, and it lets you look at winds, temperature, humidity, pollutants, ocean waves, and more – and you can see them anywhere in the world.  It's all driven by satellite data, and much of the data is updated in near realtime (within a few hours).  The least fresh data I could find was at most five days old.  You can even look at the data with a variety of map projections.  Amazing to have this at your fingertips!

I took the screenshot at right this morning, showing the winds over the U.S. At first I thought that winds were all it could show, but then I clicked on the “earth” menu at the lower left corner, and a whole 'nother world opened up.  Take a gander!

The math was settled...

The math was settled...  There is no such thing as an irrational number (that is, a number that cannot be exactly defined as the ratio of two numbers). No opposition was allowed; in fact, irrational number deniers are rumored to have been executed.

It's all very reminiscent of global warming and its skeptics...

I tried...

I tried ... to get interested in tonight's caucuses (caucusi? see note below.) in Iowa.  I tried to even care.  But I failed.  Tonight's events are doubly irrelevant for me.  First of all, there isn't a single candidate running that I'm sure I'd like to elect as President.  Worse, there's not even anyone who stands out as someone I don't want – so there's not even anyone in particular to vote against.  Hell, I'm not even very curious about who wins this thing, in either party – they're all schmucks!  Then secondly there's the very limited meaning and impact of the Iowa caucuses, and it seems to be getting even less relevant with each passing election.

So I'm paying no attention at all.

Note: on a much more important matter, I looked up “caucus” in the OED to see what the usual form of the plural is.  I assumed, from the form of the word, that it was derived from Latin.  I got a surprise:
caucus

[Arose in New England: origin obscure.
   Alleged to have been used in Boston U.S. before 1724; quotations go back to 1763. Already in 1774 Gordon (Hist. Amer. Rev.) could obtain no ‘satisfactory account of the origin of the name’. Mr. Pickering, in 1816, as a mere guess, thought it ‘not improbable that caucus might be a corruption of caulkers', the word “meetings” being understood’. For this, and the more detailed statement quoted in Webster, there is absolutely no evidence beyond the similarity of sound; and the word was actually in use before the date (1770) of the event mentioned in Webster. Dr. J. H. Trumbull (Proc. Amer. Philol. Assoc. 1872) has suggested possible derivation from an Algonkin word cau′-cau-as′u, which occurs in Capt. Smith's Virginia 23, as Caw-cawaassough ‘one who advises, urges, encourages’, from a vb. meaning primarily ‘to talk to’, hence ‘to give counsel, advise, encourage’, and ‘to urge, promote, incite to action’. For such a derivation there is claimed the general suitability of the form and sense, and it is stated that Indian names were commonly taken by clubs and secret associations in New England; but there appears to be no direct evidence.] 

Such outright uncertainty is fairly rare in the OED, but this sort of discussion is one of the big reasons why I love that tool.  Way more than I love the Iowa primary process, whatever one calls it...

Paradise ponders...

Paradise ponders...  Well, the snow finally stopped sometime last night.  This morning, after the sun came up and was shining nicely, I went out to plow the driveway again.  I quickly ran into a problem, though – in my hurry to get into the (nice, warm) house last night, I forgot to turn off the hazard lights on my tractor.  I don't normally use those lights, but last night when I drove down the highway I had them on.  They were still flashing this morning, but the bulbs just barely lit up.  The tractor engine wouldn't turn over.

So ... I had to go fish the jumper cables out of the garage, run Debbie's truck over to the barn (over the unplowed inch to two inches of fresh snow), and park it nose-to-nose with the tractor.  Then I had to figure out how to open the tractor's “hood” so I could get to the battery.  Luckily that turned out to be easy.  I hooked up the cables and started up the tractor, then put the truck back, the cables away, and finally I could go plow.

I got surprised right away by a layer of ice that developed somehow, right against the pavement.  In a couple of places it was almost an inch thick, but most places it was only about a quarter of that.  I plowed the entire driveway but still couldn't actually see the pavement!  Fortunately the sunshine took care of that problem in just a few hours.

Then I shoveled off the walkway again, and salted it to get rid of the ice (it was there, too; not just on the pavement).  I've got four foot high piles of snow now on both sides of that walkway...

Uh oh...

Uh oh...  Curiosity may have a problem...

I've never been able to fathom...

I've never been able to fathom ... why so many people are attracted to socialism.  The inevitable outcome isn't exactly attractive...

Collision imminent!

Collision imminent!  A giant cloud of gas (weighing more than a million suns) is headed for the Milky Way galaxy at 700,000 MPH.  It will hit a different arm of the galaxy than the Earth is in, about 30 million years from now.  That's imminent in the grand scheme of things, though it may not seem so to you :)

The Square Red Nebula...

The Square Red Nebula...  Via APOD, of course.  What a bizarre celestial object!  Click to embiggen...

Things I did not know, part 54,903,112...

Things I did not know, part 54,903,112...  StrategyPage's article on suicide bombings includes this paragraph (emphasis mine):

In both Lebanon and to a lesser extent in Sri Lanka, the terrorist organizations took advantage of religious beliefs that honored extreme sacrifice. Added to this was exploitation of economic and political grievances, thus making the suicide attackers into heroic characters. In addition, families of the suicide volunteers received generous (by local standards) economic rewards. Until in 2003 families of Palestinian suicide bombers receive up to $33,000 (from various sources, mainly Iraq and Saudi Arabia). Financial incentives like this have become common and the Palestinian government now pays them out of foreign aid cash. 

Assuming that's true (and I've found StrategyPage to be a reliable source), this is simply appalling.  The vast majority of foreign aid that Palestine receives comes from the U.S., either directly or indirectly through the U.N. and other aid organizations.  So ... U.S. tax dollars are paying rewards to the families of suicide bombers.

You'd think I'd be cynical enough to be unsurprised by this, but I guess I need to work on my cynicism some more because this did surprise me.  As I sat here and festered, I started thinking about all the things our government does that anger me, and ... I understood a little better what a powerful current Trump is tying into.  I don't like the idea of Trump-as-President, but I absolutely love the idea of tipping over the apple-cart on the current people running the government...

I've neglected to mention...

I've neglected to mention ... a piece of clothing I recently bought, that's making me even more comfortable outside in cold weather: fleece-lined jeans from Carhartt.  They are the bomb!
 Despite having (a relatively mild case of) Raynaud's disease, with the right apparel I'm not having much trouble.  The one exception: my hands.  I still don't have a great solution for keeping my hands comfortable while still allowing me to work with some semblance of dexterity.  My best answers today are (a) a pair of electrically heated gloves (designed for motorcyclists), and (b) a pair of well-insulated mittens combined with chemical heaters.  My fingers still get painful in the gloves if it's cold enough, and of course in the mittens my dexterity is quite impaired.  Still searching for a good answer for that!

The insulated boots I got earlier this year have proven to be a great answer for my cold feet.   Yesterday afternoon I was outside for about four hours, including an hour in a near-blizzard condition, and my feet (and legs) were comfortable the whole time...

Dang it!

Dang it!  The storm stopped around 1:30 pm, and the forecast said little chance of more, and the weather radar showed nothing on the way – so I shoveled our porch and walkway (about 18" of snow), and plowed our driveway. 

Then I headed over (on the tractor) to our neighbor, Nick and Maria S.  They have a long driveway and told me they had nobody arranged to plow them out, so I volunteered.  On the drive over (about 2 miles on a 15 MPH tractor), it started to snow.  By the time I got to their house, it was a full-on blizzard, with visibility down to 100' or so.  I plowed them out as best I could see, and headed home. 

I was frozen and soaked by the time I got back in the house, so I jumped right into a nice, hot shower.  Fifteen minutes later, there was an inch of fresh snow on the ground – and it's still coming down hard. 

Dang it!

Plowing the driveway this time was a much different experience than usual.  Normally the only challenge is to scrape every square inch while marshaling all the snow off to the side.  It's sort of a management problem: not taking too big a bite, having the blade angled right, etc.  This time there was a completely different challenge: how to get the vast quantity of snow herded off to some place available to put it.  There was a lot of snow to put somewhere!  Next time we have a deep snowfall, I'm going to try starting out with the loader bucket, and use that to move the bulk of the snow off to some good place for a pile.  Then I'll use the blade to finish it off nicely...

Newton...

Newton ... or Haukea (white snow in Hawai'ian), or Haunani (beautiful snow) ... all these names are under consideration.  He's one cute little kitten.  So far as we can tell, he's in good health.  He's got a vet appointment on Wednesday to be sure.

Then there's our dogs, in the snow.  They'd really rather be inside :)

Snowy consequences...

Snowy consequences...  The temperature is hovering right around freezing, which means the (totally unpredicted) volumes of snow that we're getting are heavy, gloppy, and wet.  For some reason one particular basement casement window is having lots and lots of snow pile into it – to the point where I started to get worried about its physical integrity.  The weight of that snow looked like it just might break the window panes!

So I ran out to my shop, found a piece of scrap OSB (chip board), and sawed it up into two 5' x 20" pieces.  Then I shoveled all the snow out from around the casement (this is while the roof was dumping more on me!), shoveled out most of the snow inside the casement, and covered it with those two pieces of OSB.  It looks like it will hold, and it definitely removed the immediate threat.  We're keeping an eye on the other casements, too, but so far none of them are getting large amounts of snow in them.  I know not why.

Meanwhile, some photos from around the place to entertain you.  If I didn't keep thinking about the work it's going to take to dig us out, I'd be entranced by the beauty of it.  The first photo shows our sidewalk after I shoveled off the first 8" or so.  In the fifth photo you can see the juncos that just don't care that I'm standing right next to them – they want that food!  The last is the same balcony shot I took just a few hours ago – look at all this white stuff!

Our balcony...

Our balcony ... at 7am.  And it's supposed to snow all day long.  Yikes!

The forecast says 3 to 5 inches today, but we've already gotten more than that.  Can you spell buried?

Mystery of the cattery pond...

Mystery of the cattery pond...  When Debbie went down to our basement cattery this morning, she discovered a small pond in the northeast corner of the room.  This was very reminiscent of the indoor ocean we had last summer during a rainstorm, but on that memorable occasion it was quite obvious where the water came from: the casement window had about 8 inches of water in it, and water was streaming through the window frame into the basement.

This time the source wasn't nearly so obvious.  We cleaned up the water with mops; the total was about two quarts.  That's far too much for a cat to be the source under even the wildest set of assumptions.  It's even too much for a water bowl to have been the source.  The kitties were puzzled as well; it was not the water feature of their dreams.  So we were mystified as we cleaned up, until Debbie spotted some water on a casement window sill.  Ah, ha!  That had to be the source.  But how?  The bottom of the casement well had no water.  Where did the water come from?  How did it get through the window?

Some inspection and thought unveiled the answer.  If water came through the casement opening at an angle (as it would if the wind was blowing from the east), then the rain would strike the casement window pane.  Then it would run down and into the sill that the window slides in.  That sill has a drain to the outside, but it's a small hole – heavy rain could easily overwhelm it.  In that case, water would overflow and some of it would run down the inside of the sill, into the cattery.  That must have been what happened.  It was rainy and windy last night.

I'm going to call that a mystery solved.  We've been in the house nearly two years now, and this is the first time anything like that happened.  Let's hope it remains a rare occurrence!

You have to pick cherries...

You have to pick cherries ... if you want to make cherry pie.  That's from this new post by Steve McIntyre, continuing his tireless work trying to find some bit of reality in the warmist's research papers.  Short version: he hasn't found any yet.  From his conclusion:

Unfortunately, Briffa and associates have never set out ex ante criteria for site inclusion/exclusion, resulting in Briffa regional reconstructions seeming more like Calvinball than science, as discussed in many CA posts.   However, remarkably, D’Arrigo et al 2009 (though not noticed at the time) had admitted earlier that year to doing exactly what Briffa had denied: the ex post selection of sites in order to obtain a preconceived result (a reconstruction that went up in the 20th century).

Do read the whole thing.  It's wonderful and satisfying to see a competent observer applying actual science techniques and skepticism.  Plus, a Calvin and Hobbes reference!

Paradise ponders...

Paradise ponders...  We had an unplanned adventure yesterday.  My brother Scott had a new feline at his house – a male kitten, barely old enough to be outside by himself.  The kitten (which he named “Furball”) was obviously not feral – he was very familiar with people and wanted into the house.  Scott isn't interested in having a kitten as a pet, and we didn't want to see the poor thing tossed back out into the snowstorm, so Debbie and I drove up and picked him up.  Furball (tentatively renamed “Newton”) is now ensconced in our basement bathroom, isolated from our cattery kitties.  We have an appointment for him with the vet next Wednesday, and Debbie has contacted Four Paws (a rescue volunteer group) to see about finding him a permanent home.

Meanwhile, Debbie has a kitten.  If you know her, you can probably imagine just how heartbroken she is about this :)  Photos will be forthcoming...

Water is all over Pluto...

Water is all over Pluto...  It was a surprise to find any water ice on Pluto.  With more analysis of the New Horizons data, researchers are discovering that there's lots of water on Pluto, and very widely distributed.  More here...

Comet 67P...

Comet 67P...  Handsome fellow, isn't he?

Of dates and computers...

Of dates and computers...  I stumbled into this article in my reading this morning.  It's a good, non-technical explanation of why we have leap years (this year is a leap year, by the way).  This is familiar territory for me, as I've written quite a bit of code that deals with these issues.  That got me to pondering just how much time I've spent over the years doing this.  It's kind of crazy, really, just how hard it is!

The most recent descent into date madness that I took was about 12 years ago, when I was working for a company doing electronic stock and option trading.  They had customers located all over the world, in a total of 28 different time zones.  The development team was getting all twisted up in the problem of converting dates and times from one time zone to another.  Our programming environment (Java) had a standard way of doing this (a “library”), but it always seemed to be missing a few of the time zones we needed.  The problem was that time zones changed frequently.  Mistakes in the time zone conversions could be very expensive for us, so it was worth considerable effort to get right.  I ended up writing a replacement for the standard Java library that we could keep up to date ourselves.  I was amazed how complex this seemingly simple problem was, especially when it dawned on me that I had to track not only the current time zones (that was bad enough!) but also the entire history of time zones.  Sheesh!

Way back in the '80s I had a consulting job that involved writing code for a different kind of date and time conversion.  This time it was a university who needed a way to figure out the relative timing of events in the past, back to around 500 BC.  The challenge was that people in different places used to keep entirely different calendars, and these calendars independently changed over time.  When someone in Italy wrote a date of (say) February 12, 1204, that wouldn't necessarily have been the same date in (say) Denmark; there it might be December 29, 1203.  One of the big challenges to understanding those differences was that the whole concept of a country was quite fluid back then :)  Even worse, in some places the researchers cared about, the calendars they used were completely different – not the Julian calendars invented by the Romans, but totally different calendars generally controlled in quite an arbitrary and capricious manner by religious authorities.

That was a really challenging programming problem.  Coming up with a model that could handle all these things wasn't too hard, but gathering the information required to fully implement that model was.  I ended up getting a grad student assigned to me as my helper, and her only job was to go get answers for me.  I'd ask her a question like “When did Amsterdam switch over to the Gregorian calendar?”, and she'd go off to get the answer.  In the end, the solution was more a database and less a bunch of code. 

I remember one problem the researchers were wrestling with that they never did come up with a satisfactory answer for.  The problem arose when interpreting the writings of someone in the past who was writing about events in an area not local to them.  For example, an Englishman might write about the purchase of a ship from Amsterdam, saying something like “I bought this ship for 4,000 guineas, and it was delivered on March 17, 1366.”  The problem is which March 17, 1366 was he talking about: London's or Amsterdam's?  Because they weren't the same.  Most likely they'll never figure that one out :)

Anyway, I've spent a lot more programming time dealing with issues like this than I ever thought I would.  The problem of dates and times keeps recurring, and I'm not sure that will ever end.  For instance, there's a debate currently underway about leap-seconds, and whatever the answer turns out to be, software will have to be written to deal with it...

Laser beam space rock deflection?

Laser beam space rock deflection?  That's what this article is talking about.  They propose two versions: one that would orbit the rock being deflected, the other in Earth orbit. 

The version with the laser flying nearby the space rock makes sense to me: the laser is basically collecting sunlight (with a solar panel array) and turning it into a high energy beam of light that vaporizes parts of the rock's surface, acting like a small (and terribly designed!) rocket to “push” the rock the other way.

The version with the laser flying in Earth orbit sounds like fantasy to me, mainly because of the implausibly “tight” beam divergence that would be required.  “Beam divergence” is one of the measures of the quality of a laser.  It's a function of both the laser itself and the optics the beam is passed through.  The “optics” part gets very tricky with high power laser beams, as the optics inevitably absorb some of the energy from the laser.  Even if the absorbed fraction is very small, the optics get very hot – and that heat can only be gotten rid of in space by re-radiating it.  That's hard.  But even if you ignore the heat problem, the quality of the laser and optics required is almost unimaginably high.  I think the people proposing this are smoking something they shouldn't oughtta be...

A new skiing operation...

A new skiing operation ... uses a Snow-Cat that runs up a trail starting just 2.5 miles southeast of our home.  We've seen the Snow-Cat parked there, but didn't know why...

The weatherman said snow...

The weatherman said snow ... and (this time, at least) he was right on target.  There are about 2 inches of fresh snow on the ground.  When I let the dogs out a couple hours ago, it was snowing hard – when they came back inside, each of them had a quarter inch or so of snow all over their backs.  Then they shook it off :) 

The image at right show the weather radar picture as of about 4 am this morning.  The winds are blowing almost directly from the west, so most of that “blue blob” (the snow storm) has yet to hit us.  The forecast for today has been revised; they're now saying 3 to 5 inches of snow today, with the snow lasting into this evening.  That means a storm total of 5 to 7 inches.

Looks like my Sunday morning chores will include plowing the driveway and clearing the sidewalk!

Whenever someone whines to me...

Whenever someone whines to me ... about the stock market decline, I show them a chart like the one at right, and remind them that they haven't “lost” a penny unless they sell.  That chart plots the Dow-Jones index, the NASDAQ 100 index, and the S&P 500 index over the five years.  Yes, the stock market prices have declined a bit over the past few months.  Yes, if you had purchased an index fund at the peak, and sold today, you'd have lost a small percentage.  But ... if you purchased that index fund more than a year or so ago, it's had an appreciable increase in value even with the recent declines.

So after I show them this chart, I tell the whiners that if they are going to have an emotional reaction when they watch the indices every day, then they shouldn't be investing in the stock market at all.  They should instead invest in something less visibly volatile, with a risk/return trade-off they  can live with.  If they can find such a thing – these days the stock market is hard to beat on that score...

Snow's gonna snow...

Snow's gonna snow...  And that's just what the weatherman is telling us is about to happen: 2 to 4 inches of the fluffy white stuff in the next 36 hours or so.  I sense some snowplowing in my near-term future :)

Just read it...

Just read it...  You know that with a lead like this:

Let me tell you the worst thing about the climate change scam. It’s not the lies, not bullying, not the perversion of the scientific method, not the establishment cover-ups, not the needless scaremongering, not the wasted money, not the nannying overregulation, not the destroyed wildlife and ruined countryside, not the stymied economic growth — bad though all these things are. No one what really sticks in the craw is that the people making money out of it are the scum of the earth.

...you just have to read the whole thing!

I just love the premise of a hedge fund dedicated to making money from the failures of the warmists...

On Trump...

On Trump...  This is from a great piece by Megan McArdle:

But his endlessly convenient opinion shifts, on the very core issues his supporters care most about, ought also to signal that Donald Trump doesn’t care about you, either. He’s against outsourcing and immigration as long as that’s getting him votes. But if he can find a different coalition, he’ll happily abandon the current one in a flash. As he’ll need to, if he gets the nomination, and starts looking at the electoral math to take the general. Trump may set the land-speed record for a full 180, and his supporters will have little right to complain, given that his newfound attachment to conservative issues – including the ones he hammers most – is obviously weak and opportunistic.

It takes very little cynicism (I, for one, have more than the required minimum) to believe that her paragraph applies to nearly all politicians.

She's ok...

She's ok ... but it's hard to believe after watching this.  More here.  More on the skier (Angel Collinson).

There are many reasons why I'm uninterested in skiing.  The possibility of a tumble like this ... is now on that list :)

Winter sports in general, including the various kinds of skiing, are a really big deal around here.  Snowmobiling is probably the most popular, but snowshoeing, cross-country skiing, and downhill skiing all have lots of participation.  None of them have appeal to me, and only partly because it involves being outside in uncomfortably cold conditions. 

I love the scenic attractions of snowy and icy places – particularly streams and ponds.  They look just as beautiful to me when viewed from inside a toasty warm car, perhaps with a few short walks to explore particular things.  But hours on a noisy snowmobile, or puffing and panting on snowshoes or skis?  Along with the risk of falls, avalanches, and prolong exposure to the cold?  Not so much appeal for me :)

Huge breakthrough?

Huge breakthrough?  This story, about Google's AI software beating a human Go champion, is splattered all over the web.  Most of the stories use similar hyperbolic language, which I'm sure Google is quite happy to see.  Is it really a huge breakthrough?

I don't think so.  It's a laudable incremental advance in an area that computers (including artificial intelligence) are very good at: games with a constrained context and rules.  By “constrained context” I mean that in order to play the game of Go (or most other games), you don't need to know anything beyond the rules of the game.

That's very different, for example, than holding a conversation with someone.  In any randomly chosen human conversation, you'll find that in order to have that conversation the people involved must share an enormous amount of context.  For example, if we were talking politics, you'd have to know the names of the politicians involved, something about their beliefs and pronouncements, what offices they were running for, who the voters were ... I could go on for a long time like that.

It's not that I think Google's accomplishment is unimpressive – it's very impressive, in the same way that being the first to walk on the moon is impressive.  But ... it's less a fundamental advance and more an incremental improvement.  I'd be much more impressed if someone rolled out a computer that could talk with me in a natural way on even some limited topic.  As I've said before, I'm skeptical that such a thing will ever happen through digital computers as we know them today.  Want some evidence for my skepticism?  Spend a few minutes trying to ask some questions of Siri, Cortana, or Alexa (the voice enabled “digital assistants” from Apple, Microsoft, and Amazon, respectively). Are they helpful?  Sometimes.  Are they amusing?  Most definitely.  Do they seem like a human assistant?  Hell, no.  Not even close.

So ... congratulations, Google!  But I'm still skeptical about the breadth of artificial intelligence's utility, and I still cringe when I hear people equate today's artificial intelligence with human intelligence.  Those two concepts – today, at least – aren't in the same category...

Paradise ponders...

Paradise ponders...  Yesterday afternoon we took a ride up to Hardware Ranch, looking for wildlife.  We saw about a bazillion deer – we joked that it was easier to say where there weren't any deer, and that's not too far off what we saw.  The most interesting deer we saw were climbing around a rock outcropping like you'd expect goats to be doing (they're in the crummy photo at right, which was blown up from a non-telephoto shot).

We also saw a moose browsing alongside Blacksmith Fork River.  After watching him for a little while, we realized that its left rear leg was badly injured.  It's still able to stumble around, but I'm pretty sure it couldn't run.  We're hoping it survives, but it looks pretty bad.

After the drive, we headed to Le Nonne for dinner.  Once again we had a delicious meal.  We shared a burrata appetizer (below, left) and then I had an entree of Alaskan Snow Crab ravioli (below, right).  Wonderful!  Debbie had bow-tie pasta with salmon, also wonderful.

The food was most enjoyable, but the service ... not so much.  We had a waiter who was obviously of the opinion that one cannot possibly be too pretentious.  One example: he noticed that I wasn't using the straw he'd placed on the table, so he asked “Will we be using our straw tonight?”  I was sore tempted to tell him where “we” could shove that straw.  But I was good; I didn't do that :)  That experience had us both talking (after we'd left the restaurant) about how nice it was to live in a pretension-free zone.  Well, nearly so, anyway.  People here are, in general, about as down-to-earth as they could be.  That general absence of pretension makes displays of it (as we experienced last night) stick out like the proverbial sore thumb.

We'll be going back to Le Nonne ... but most likely not as soon as we would if the staff were (a lot) less pretentious.  We've noted that a good fraction of Le Nonne's customers seem to be faculty and staff at Utah State University; the high levels of pretension may play better with that crowd :)

Paradise ponders photos...

Paradise ponders photos...  These are all courtesy of my neighbor Alan L., and the kid in the photos is his younger son Nikolas.  As always, you can click to embiggen.  Alan is the same guy who did the “Wil Can Fly” calendars.  He's a talented photographer!

Paradise ponders...

Paradise ponders...  Yesterday a neighbor (Alan L.) asked if he and two of his boys could come over to use the woodworking tools in my shop to help them with their “pinewood derby” cars.  His younger boy (Nic) needed his for his scouts; the older boy (Zac) was doing it just for fun.  Both of them needed to cut the rectangular blocks that came with their kits into a slightly more curvy shape.  Nic had an ambitiously complex shape in mind; Zac wanted a simple wedge with a slight curve.

The right tool for both of them was a power coping saw.  I have the same model as the one pictured at right. 

Nic is about 11 years old, and has little experience with power tools (or tools in general, for that matter), so this is a good choice for its simplicity and relative safety, too.  We gave him a bit of instruction on the proper use of the saw, and let him practice on a piece of scrap wood.  He did fine during practice, and his “real” cuts on the block of pine that came with his kit were darned near perfect. 

Zac is a couple years older, and a lot more confident (though not necessarily justifiably :) than Nic.  His design was also much simpler, and he cut his block without any issues at all. 

I'm hoping Alan will share some photos with me; if he does I'll post them.  He is a photographer and web designer by trade, and his camera was clicking away like mad all evening :)

Oh, that quaint little notion called “the rule of law”...

Oh, that quaint little notion called “the rule of law”...  It's what keeps American citizens from being arbitrarily abused by the powerful ... or by mobs.  No matter who you are, the rule of law promises, the law will apply to you just as it does to any other citizen. 

We've never been a perfect example of the rule of law here.  Corruption is a big problem, though it's subtler and less widespread here than in many other places.  The rich and powerful can always find ways to use their money or their influence to help themselves or those they favor.  Nevertheless, it's generally true here that if someone breaks the law, they're going to be charged, prosecuted, and convicted by a jury. 

That last step – conviction by a jury – is subject to various kinds of manipulation, though.  Lawyers for defendants will try mightily to influence the jurors decision-making process, even if the conclusion desired doesn't follow the law.  There's even a name for this: jury nullification.  It's very controversial amongst legal academics, as it is an overt violation of the rule of law.  Jury nullification has a long history, many proponents, and some of its historical outcomes would be widely seen today as acceptable and even desirable.  And yet ... it's a clear violation of our vaunted rule of law.

Life is complicated :)

I don't have a clear position on the idea of jury nullification.  Both sides of the argument have compelling points, both pro and con.

Friend and former colleague Tim B. passed along an article detailing a current attempt at jury nullification (though the article doesn't mention that!).  Anyone who believes that anthropogenic global warming (AGW) is about to bake the planet will most likely find this effort laudable.  Those of us who (like me) think that AGW is a gigantic fraud will likely find this to be a lamentable potential lapse in the rule of law.

I hate the idea that a mob of AGW supporters could stop completely legal development of energy resources.  But I'm not ready to condemn jury nullification...

More snow in Paradise...

More snow in Paradise...  Big, fluffy flakes and a lot of them.  The dogs were reveling in it once again, and came back inside with backs that were completely white with snow.  I'm guessing two inches more on the ground.  It's all due to end in a few hours, and after that we've got five days of sunshine in the forecast.  I'll be climbing on my tractor after daybreak to clear the driveway, which by this point has about 6" of new snow on it...

More social science...

More social science ... that can't be replicated.  This time it's the “power pose”, which, to be honest, looked like first class bullshit at first sight.  In fact, that TED talk was the last one I've watched – the straw that broke this proverbial camel's back...

Winter Paradise...

Winter Paradise...  Some photos from around our yard, none of them more than 50' from our house.  Click any thumbnail to embiggen:

What's that?

What's that?  Why it's a close-up image of some Martian sand, from the dark dunes Curiosity is currently exploring.

Staring at this raises all sorts of questions for me, mainly because that sand looks so very much like sand I might find here on Earth.  Here, we understand a lot about how such sands form.  All of the processes I know of involve water: the freezing ices of winter (expanding in cracks to break rocks up), the erosion of particles in flowing water, or the pounding waters of the sea (which break up rocks by pounding them).  How did this sand happen on Mars?  Is there some mechanism that involves only atmospheric gases that created them?  Or is this good evidence of the presence of water?

Star cluster R136...

Star cluster R136...  Via APOD, of course.  Click thumbnail at right to embiggen, or get the glorious full resolution image...

A couple of good ones...

A couple of good ones ... via my lovely bride:

Ed Yourdon, RIP...

Ed Yourdon, RIP...  For geeks of a certain age, Ed Yourdon is a name that conjures up memories of computer programming's first tentative steps toward engineering, rather than as a pure art.  His book Structured Design was a milestone.  It's largely forgotten now, as its essentials have been absorbed into the programming culture as well as into successor design “fads”.  For me that book was revelatory ... it truly introduced me to the idea that one could usefully think about patterns in the way one wrote code.

I had the chance to meet (and talk with) Ed on two occasions, both times at conferences.  Once was in the early '80s, when my then-employer sent me to a conference put on by Roger Oech; the other in the early '90s at Comdex.  At that first conference, I had lunch with him, and we share some memories of the early days of microcomputing.  Even then, both of us were surprised at how quickly microcomputers were ramping up – and neither of us had any clue that those days were but the beginning.

Ed's book sticks in my mind mostly for one thing it accomplished: teaching this young geek why the spaghetti code (the only kind I'd ever written to that point, with jumps sprinkled randomly throughout) was a bad idea, and how it could be better done.  I still remember the conflict I felt then, between the rigor and beauty of structured programming and the need for performance optimizations.  I really didn't understand, then, that the low performance microcomputers of the day would shortly be antiques, and that the cost of a few extra computer instructions would soon be zero for all practical purposes.  It seems downright silly today to assert that it might be necessary to write some unstructured code to get the performance we needed, but back then it was quite a normal thing.  It still happens today, but on increasingly rare occasions...

Paradise ponders...

Paradise ponders...  Woke up this morning to 35°F temperatures, gentle snowfall, and about 2" of new snow on the ground.  When I let the dogs out for their morning constitutional, they gamboled about the back yard with sheer joy.  There's something about that fluffy snow that they really like.  I had to go out in the yard (with my housecoat and boots :) to retrieve them; they didn't really want to come back inside.  All three of them had a nice coat of fresh snow on them that (of course!) they didn't want to get rid of until after they were back inside...