Our balcony...

Our balcony ... at 7am.  And it's supposed to snow all day long.  Yikes!

The forecast says 3 to 5 inches today, but we've already gotten more than that.  Can you spell buried?

Mystery of the cattery pond...

Mystery of the cattery pond...  When Debbie went down to our basement cattery this morning, she discovered a small pond in the northeast corner of the room.  This was very reminiscent of the indoor ocean we had last summer during a rainstorm, but on that memorable occasion it was quite obvious where the water came from: the casement window had about 8 inches of water in it, and water was streaming through the window frame into the basement.

This time the source wasn't nearly so obvious.  We cleaned up the water with mops; the total was about two quarts.  That's far too much for a cat to be the source under even the wildest set of assumptions.  It's even too much for a water bowl to have been the source.  The kitties were puzzled as well; it was not the water feature of their dreams.  So we were mystified as we cleaned up, until Debbie spotted some water on a casement window sill.  Ah, ha!  That had to be the source.  But how?  The bottom of the casement well had no water.  Where did the water come from?  How did it get through the window?

Some inspection and thought unveiled the answer.  If water came through the casement opening at an angle (as it would if the wind was blowing from the east), then the rain would strike the casement window pane.  Then it would run down and into the sill that the window slides in.  That sill has a drain to the outside, but it's a small hole – heavy rain could easily overwhelm it.  In that case, water would overflow and some of it would run down the inside of the sill, into the cattery.  That must have been what happened.  It was rainy and windy last night.

I'm going to call that a mystery solved.  We've been in the house nearly two years now, and this is the first time anything like that happened.  Let's hope it remains a rare occurrence!

You have to pick cherries...

You have to pick cherries ... if you want to make cherry pie.  That's from this new post by Steve McIntyre, continuing his tireless work trying to find some bit of reality in the warmist's research papers.  Short version: he hasn't found any yet.  From his conclusion:

Unfortunately, Briffa and associates have never set out ex ante criteria for site inclusion/exclusion, resulting in Briffa regional reconstructions seeming more like Calvinball than science, as discussed in many CA posts.   However, remarkably, D’Arrigo et al 2009 (though not noticed at the time) had admitted earlier that year to doing exactly what Briffa had denied: the ex post selection of sites in order to obtain a preconceived result (a reconstruction that went up in the 20th century).

Do read the whole thing.  It's wonderful and satisfying to see a competent observer applying actual science techniques and skepticism.  Plus, a Calvin and Hobbes reference!

Paradise ponders...

Paradise ponders...  We had an unplanned adventure yesterday.  My brother Scott had a new feline at his house – a male kitten, barely old enough to be outside by himself.  The kitten (which he named “Furball”) was obviously not feral – he was very familiar with people and wanted into the house.  Scott isn't interested in having a kitten as a pet, and we didn't want to see the poor thing tossed back out into the snowstorm, so Debbie and I drove up and picked him up.  Furball (tentatively renamed “Newton”) is now ensconced in our basement bathroom, isolated from our cattery kitties.  We have an appointment for him with the vet next Wednesday, and Debbie has contacted Four Paws (a rescue volunteer group) to see about finding him a permanent home.

Meanwhile, Debbie has a kitten.  If you know her, you can probably imagine just how heartbroken she is about this :)  Photos will be forthcoming...

Water is all over Pluto...

Water is all over Pluto...  It was a surprise to find any water ice on Pluto.  With more analysis of the New Horizons data, researchers are discovering that there's lots of water on Pluto, and very widely distributed.  More here...

Comet 67P...

Comet 67P...  Handsome fellow, isn't he?

Of dates and computers...

Of dates and computers...  I stumbled into this article in my reading this morning.  It's a good, non-technical explanation of why we have leap years (this year is a leap year, by the way).  This is familiar territory for me, as I've written quite a bit of code that deals with these issues.  That got me to pondering just how much time I've spent over the years doing this.  It's kind of crazy, really, just how hard it is!

The most recent descent into date madness that I took was about 12 years ago, when I was working for a company doing electronic stock and option trading.  They had customers located all over the world, in a total of 28 different time zones.  The development team was getting all twisted up in the problem of converting dates and times from one time zone to another.  Our programming environment (Java) had a standard way of doing this (a “library”), but it always seemed to be missing a few of the time zones we needed.  The problem was that time zones changed frequently.  Mistakes in the time zone conversions could be very expensive for us, so it was worth considerable effort to get right.  I ended up writing a replacement for the standard Java library that we could keep up to date ourselves.  I was amazed how complex this seemingly simple problem was, especially when it dawned on me that I had to track not only the current time zones (that was bad enough!) but also the entire history of time zones.  Sheesh!

Way back in the '80s I had a consulting job that involved writing code for a different kind of date and time conversion.  This time it was a university who needed a way to figure out the relative timing of events in the past, back to around 500 BC.  The challenge was that people in different places used to keep entirely different calendars, and these calendars independently changed over time.  When someone in Italy wrote a date of (say) February 12, 1204, that wouldn't necessarily have been the same date in (say) Denmark; there it might be December 29, 1203.  One of the big challenges to understanding those differences was that the whole concept of a country was quite fluid back then :)  Even worse, in some places the researchers cared about, the calendars they used were completely different – not the Julian calendars invented by the Romans, but totally different calendars generally controlled in quite an arbitrary and capricious manner by religious authorities.

That was a really challenging programming problem.  Coming up with a model that could handle all these things wasn't too hard, but gathering the information required to fully implement that model was.  I ended up getting a grad student assigned to me as my helper, and her only job was to go get answers for me.  I'd ask her a question like “When did Amsterdam switch over to the Gregorian calendar?”, and she'd go off to get the answer.  In the end, the solution was more a database and less a bunch of code. 

I remember one problem the researchers were wrestling with that they never did come up with a satisfactory answer for.  The problem arose when interpreting the writings of someone in the past who was writing about events in an area not local to them.  For example, an Englishman might write about the purchase of a ship from Amsterdam, saying something like “I bought this ship for 4,000 guineas, and it was delivered on March 17, 1366.”  The problem is which March 17, 1366 was he talking about: London's or Amsterdam's?  Because they weren't the same.  Most likely they'll never figure that one out :)

Anyway, I've spent a lot more programming time dealing with issues like this than I ever thought I would.  The problem of dates and times keeps recurring, and I'm not sure that will ever end.  For instance, there's a debate currently underway about leap-seconds, and whatever the answer turns out to be, software will have to be written to deal with it...

Laser beam space rock deflection?

Laser beam space rock deflection?  That's what this article is talking about.  They propose two versions: one that would orbit the rock being deflected, the other in Earth orbit. 

The version with the laser flying nearby the space rock makes sense to me: the laser is basically collecting sunlight (with a solar panel array) and turning it into a high energy beam of light that vaporizes parts of the rock's surface, acting like a small (and terribly designed!) rocket to “push” the rock the other way.

The version with the laser flying in Earth orbit sounds like fantasy to me, mainly because of the implausibly “tight” beam divergence that would be required.  “Beam divergence” is one of the measures of the quality of a laser.  It's a function of both the laser itself and the optics the beam is passed through.  The “optics” part gets very tricky with high power laser beams, as the optics inevitably absorb some of the energy from the laser.  Even if the absorbed fraction is very small, the optics get very hot – and that heat can only be gotten rid of in space by re-radiating it.  That's hard.  But even if you ignore the heat problem, the quality of the laser and optics required is almost unimaginably high.  I think the people proposing this are smoking something they shouldn't oughtta be...

A new skiing operation...

A new skiing operation ... uses a Snow-Cat that runs up a trail starting just 2.5 miles southeast of our home.  We've seen the Snow-Cat parked there, but didn't know why...

The weatherman said snow...

The weatherman said snow ... and (this time, at least) he was right on target.  There are about 2 inches of fresh snow on the ground.  When I let the dogs out a couple hours ago, it was snowing hard – when they came back inside, each of them had a quarter inch or so of snow all over their backs.  Then they shook it off :) 

The image at right show the weather radar picture as of about 4 am this morning.  The winds are blowing almost directly from the west, so most of that “blue blob” (the snow storm) has yet to hit us.  The forecast for today has been revised; they're now saying 3 to 5 inches of snow today, with the snow lasting into this evening.  That means a storm total of 5 to 7 inches.

Looks like my Sunday morning chores will include plowing the driveway and clearing the sidewalk!

Whenever someone whines to me...

Whenever someone whines to me ... about the stock market decline, I show them a chart like the one at right, and remind them that they haven't “lost” a penny unless they sell.  That chart plots the Dow-Jones index, the NASDAQ 100 index, and the S&P 500 index over the five years.  Yes, the stock market prices have declined a bit over the past few months.  Yes, if you had purchased an index fund at the peak, and sold today, you'd have lost a small percentage.  But ... if you purchased that index fund more than a year or so ago, it's had an appreciable increase in value even with the recent declines.

So after I show them this chart, I tell the whiners that if they are going to have an emotional reaction when they watch the indices every day, then they shouldn't be investing in the stock market at all.  They should instead invest in something less visibly volatile, with a risk/return trade-off they  can live with.  If they can find such a thing – these days the stock market is hard to beat on that score...

Snow's gonna snow...

Snow's gonna snow...  And that's just what the weatherman is telling us is about to happen: 2 to 4 inches of the fluffy white stuff in the next 36 hours or so.  I sense some snowplowing in my near-term future :)

Just read it...

Just read it...  You know that with a lead like this:

Let me tell you the worst thing about the climate change scam. It’s not the lies, not bullying, not the perversion of the scientific method, not the establishment cover-ups, not the needless scaremongering, not the wasted money, not the nannying overregulation, not the destroyed wildlife and ruined countryside, not the stymied economic growth — bad though all these things are. No one what really sticks in the craw is that the people making money out of it are the scum of the earth.

...you just have to read the whole thing!

I just love the premise of a hedge fund dedicated to making money from the failures of the warmists...

On Trump...

On Trump...  This is from a great piece by Megan McArdle:

But his endlessly convenient opinion shifts, on the very core issues his supporters care most about, ought also to signal that Donald Trump doesn’t care about you, either. He’s against outsourcing and immigration as long as that’s getting him votes. But if he can find a different coalition, he’ll happily abandon the current one in a flash. As he’ll need to, if he gets the nomination, and starts looking at the electoral math to take the general. Trump may set the land-speed record for a full 180, and his supporters will have little right to complain, given that his newfound attachment to conservative issues – including the ones he hammers most – is obviously weak and opportunistic.

It takes very little cynicism (I, for one, have more than the required minimum) to believe that her paragraph applies to nearly all politicians.

She's ok...

She's ok ... but it's hard to believe after watching this.  More here.  More on the skier (Angel Collinson).

There are many reasons why I'm uninterested in skiing.  The possibility of a tumble like this ... is now on that list :)

Winter sports in general, including the various kinds of skiing, are a really big deal around here.  Snowmobiling is probably the most popular, but snowshoeing, cross-country skiing, and downhill skiing all have lots of participation.  None of them have appeal to me, and only partly because it involves being outside in uncomfortably cold conditions. 

I love the scenic attractions of snowy and icy places – particularly streams and ponds.  They look just as beautiful to me when viewed from inside a toasty warm car, perhaps with a few short walks to explore particular things.  But hours on a noisy snowmobile, or puffing and panting on snowshoes or skis?  Along with the risk of falls, avalanches, and prolong exposure to the cold?  Not so much appeal for me :)

Huge breakthrough?

Huge breakthrough?  This story, about Google's AI software beating a human Go champion, is splattered all over the web.  Most of the stories use similar hyperbolic language, which I'm sure Google is quite happy to see.  Is it really a huge breakthrough?

I don't think so.  It's a laudable incremental advance in an area that computers (including artificial intelligence) are very good at: games with a constrained context and rules.  By “constrained context” I mean that in order to play the game of Go (or most other games), you don't need to know anything beyond the rules of the game.

That's very different, for example, than holding a conversation with someone.  In any randomly chosen human conversation, you'll find that in order to have that conversation the people involved must share an enormous amount of context.  For example, if we were talking politics, you'd have to know the names of the politicians involved, something about their beliefs and pronouncements, what offices they were running for, who the voters were ... I could go on for a long time like that.

It's not that I think Google's accomplishment is unimpressive – it's very impressive, in the same way that being the first to walk on the moon is impressive.  But ... it's less a fundamental advance and more an incremental improvement.  I'd be much more impressed if someone rolled out a computer that could talk with me in a natural way on even some limited topic.  As I've said before, I'm skeptical that such a thing will ever happen through digital computers as we know them today.  Want some evidence for my skepticism?  Spend a few minutes trying to ask some questions of Siri, Cortana, or Alexa (the voice enabled “digital assistants” from Apple, Microsoft, and Amazon, respectively). Are they helpful?  Sometimes.  Are they amusing?  Most definitely.  Do they seem like a human assistant?  Hell, no.  Not even close.

So ... congratulations, Google!  But I'm still skeptical about the breadth of artificial intelligence's utility, and I still cringe when I hear people equate today's artificial intelligence with human intelligence.  Those two concepts – today, at least – aren't in the same category...

Paradise ponders...

Paradise ponders...  Yesterday afternoon we took a ride up to Hardware Ranch, looking for wildlife.  We saw about a bazillion deer – we joked that it was easier to say where there weren't any deer, and that's not too far off what we saw.  The most interesting deer we saw were climbing around a rock outcropping like you'd expect goats to be doing (they're in the crummy photo at right, which was blown up from a non-telephoto shot).

We also saw a moose browsing alongside Blacksmith Fork River.  After watching him for a little while, we realized that its left rear leg was badly injured.  It's still able to stumble around, but I'm pretty sure it couldn't run.  We're hoping it survives, but it looks pretty bad.

After the drive, we headed to Le Nonne for dinner.  Once again we had a delicious meal.  We shared a burrata appetizer (below, left) and then I had an entree of Alaskan Snow Crab ravioli (below, right).  Wonderful!  Debbie had bow-tie pasta with salmon, also wonderful.

The food was most enjoyable, but the service ... not so much.  We had a waiter who was obviously of the opinion that one cannot possibly be too pretentious.  One example: he noticed that I wasn't using the straw he'd placed on the table, so he asked “Will we be using our straw tonight?”  I was sore tempted to tell him where “we” could shove that straw.  But I was good; I didn't do that :)  That experience had us both talking (after we'd left the restaurant) about how nice it was to live in a pretension-free zone.  Well, nearly so, anyway.  People here are, in general, about as down-to-earth as they could be.  That general absence of pretension makes displays of it (as we experienced last night) stick out like the proverbial sore thumb.

We'll be going back to Le Nonne ... but most likely not as soon as we would if the staff were (a lot) less pretentious.  We've noted that a good fraction of Le Nonne's customers seem to be faculty and staff at Utah State University; the high levels of pretension may play better with that crowd :)

Paradise ponders photos...

Paradise ponders photos...  These are all courtesy of my neighbor Alan L., and the kid in the photos is his younger son Nikolas.  As always, you can click to embiggen.  Alan is the same guy who did the “Wil Can Fly” calendars.  He's a talented photographer!

Paradise ponders...

Paradise ponders...  Yesterday a neighbor (Alan L.) asked if he and two of his boys could come over to use the woodworking tools in my shop to help them with their “pinewood derby” cars.  His younger boy (Nic) needed his for his scouts; the older boy (Zac) was doing it just for fun.  Both of them needed to cut the rectangular blocks that came with their kits into a slightly more curvy shape.  Nic had an ambitiously complex shape in mind; Zac wanted a simple wedge with a slight curve.

The right tool for both of them was a power coping saw.  I have the same model as the one pictured at right. 

Nic is about 11 years old, and has little experience with power tools (or tools in general, for that matter), so this is a good choice for its simplicity and relative safety, too.  We gave him a bit of instruction on the proper use of the saw, and let him practice on a piece of scrap wood.  He did fine during practice, and his “real” cuts on the block of pine that came with his kit were darned near perfect. 

Zac is a couple years older, and a lot more confident (though not necessarily justifiably :) than Nic.  His design was also much simpler, and he cut his block without any issues at all. 

I'm hoping Alan will share some photos with me; if he does I'll post them.  He is a photographer and web designer by trade, and his camera was clicking away like mad all evening :)

Oh, that quaint little notion called “the rule of law”...

Oh, that quaint little notion called “the rule of law”...  It's what keeps American citizens from being arbitrarily abused by the powerful ... or by mobs.  No matter who you are, the rule of law promises, the law will apply to you just as it does to any other citizen. 

We've never been a perfect example of the rule of law here.  Corruption is a big problem, though it's subtler and less widespread here than in many other places.  The rich and powerful can always find ways to use their money or their influence to help themselves or those they favor.  Nevertheless, it's generally true here that if someone breaks the law, they're going to be charged, prosecuted, and convicted by a jury. 

That last step – conviction by a jury – is subject to various kinds of manipulation, though.  Lawyers for defendants will try mightily to influence the jurors decision-making process, even if the conclusion desired doesn't follow the law.  There's even a name for this: jury nullification.  It's very controversial amongst legal academics, as it is an overt violation of the rule of law.  Jury nullification has a long history, many proponents, and some of its historical outcomes would be widely seen today as acceptable and even desirable.  And yet ... it's a clear violation of our vaunted rule of law.

Life is complicated :)

I don't have a clear position on the idea of jury nullification.  Both sides of the argument have compelling points, both pro and con.

Friend and former colleague Tim B. passed along an article detailing a current attempt at jury nullification (though the article doesn't mention that!).  Anyone who believes that anthropogenic global warming (AGW) is about to bake the planet will most likely find this effort laudable.  Those of us who (like me) think that AGW is a gigantic fraud will likely find this to be a lamentable potential lapse in the rule of law.

I hate the idea that a mob of AGW supporters could stop completely legal development of energy resources.  But I'm not ready to condemn jury nullification...

More snow in Paradise...

More snow in Paradise...  Big, fluffy flakes and a lot of them.  The dogs were reveling in it once again, and came back inside with backs that were completely white with snow.  I'm guessing two inches more on the ground.  It's all due to end in a few hours, and after that we've got five days of sunshine in the forecast.  I'll be climbing on my tractor after daybreak to clear the driveway, which by this point has about 6" of new snow on it...

More social science...

More social science ... that can't be replicated.  This time it's the “power pose”, which, to be honest, looked like first class bullshit at first sight.  In fact, that TED talk was the last one I've watched – the straw that broke this proverbial camel's back...

Winter Paradise...

Winter Paradise...  Some photos from around our yard, none of them more than 50' from our house.  Click any thumbnail to embiggen:

What's that?

What's that?  Why it's a close-up image of some Martian sand, from the dark dunes Curiosity is currently exploring.

Staring at this raises all sorts of questions for me, mainly because that sand looks so very much like sand I might find here on Earth.  Here, we understand a lot about how such sands form.  All of the processes I know of involve water: the freezing ices of winter (expanding in cracks to break rocks up), the erosion of particles in flowing water, or the pounding waters of the sea (which break up rocks by pounding them).  How did this sand happen on Mars?  Is there some mechanism that involves only atmospheric gases that created them?  Or is this good evidence of the presence of water?

Star cluster R136...

Star cluster R136...  Via APOD, of course.  Click thumbnail at right to embiggen, or get the glorious full resolution image...

A couple of good ones...

A couple of good ones ... via my lovely bride:

Ed Yourdon, RIP...

Ed Yourdon, RIP...  For geeks of a certain age, Ed Yourdon is a name that conjures up memories of computer programming's first tentative steps toward engineering, rather than as a pure art.  His book Structured Design was a milestone.  It's largely forgotten now, as its essentials have been absorbed into the programming culture as well as into successor design “fads”.  For me that book was revelatory ... it truly introduced me to the idea that one could usefully think about patterns in the way one wrote code.

I had the chance to meet (and talk with) Ed on two occasions, both times at conferences.  Once was in the early '80s, when my then-employer sent me to a conference put on by Roger Oech; the other in the early '90s at Comdex.  At that first conference, I had lunch with him, and we share some memories of the early days of microcomputing.  Even then, both of us were surprised at how quickly microcomputers were ramping up – and neither of us had any clue that those days were but the beginning.

Ed's book sticks in my mind mostly for one thing it accomplished: teaching this young geek why the spaghetti code (the only kind I'd ever written to that point, with jumps sprinkled randomly throughout) was a bad idea, and how it could be better done.  I still remember the conflict I felt then, between the rigor and beauty of structured programming and the need for performance optimizations.  I really didn't understand, then, that the low performance microcomputers of the day would shortly be antiques, and that the cost of a few extra computer instructions would soon be zero for all practical purposes.  It seems downright silly today to assert that it might be necessary to write some unstructured code to get the performance we needed, but back then it was quite a normal thing.  It still happens today, but on increasingly rare occasions...

Paradise ponders...

Paradise ponders...  Woke up this morning to 35°F temperatures, gentle snowfall, and about 2" of new snow on the ground.  When I let the dogs out for their morning constitutional, they gamboled about the back yard with sheer joy.  There's something about that fluffy snow that they really like.  I had to go out in the yard (with my housecoat and boots :) to retrieve them; they didn't really want to come back inside.  All three of them had a nice coat of fresh snow on them that (of course!) they didn't want to get rid of until after they were back inside...

Will space junk start a war?

Will space junk start a war?  That's what these scientists are saying, but I suspect the hyperbole is aimed at getting some action on the subject.

I do remember reading a science fiction story in which the author postulated the end of civilization after a space junk cascade took out all the communications satellites, which many nations interpreted as an act of war by some enemy.  The result was a world war that reduced us all to Stone Age level.  Considering that I read the story in the '60s, that author seems ... prescient...

History-making astronomical plates...

History-making astronomical plates...  The photographic plate at right was made in 1943 by astronomer Walter Baade, showing the best view of the Andromeda Galaxy anyone had ever seen – and the first one that made it obvious that the “fuzzy spot” was actually an enormous collection of stars.  It's one of the plates chosen for this piece on the history of photographic astronomy...

Another irreproducible science report?

Another irreproducible science report?  Looks that way.  This one spawned a multi-billion dollar industry selling devices to stave off Seasonal Affective Disorder (SAD), which ... may not be real at all.

The social sciences are becoming indistinguishable from the JIR...

Capitalism is accomplishing...

Capitalism is accomplishing ... what NASA could not.  They're making better videos along the way, too :)  More here.  If you're wondering what the “Karman line” is, here's an explanation...

Our local star...

Our local star ... the sun, is just a bit more complicated than most people think.  The video at right, captured by the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO, a solar telescope in space), shows solar filaments warped by dynamic magnetic fields.

Many years ago I visited the Kitt Peak Observatory, mostly to get a glimpse of the McMath-Pierce solar telescope, still the largest instrument of its kind.  I remember flipping through a book of some of the photos it took – revolutionary at the time.  Today they seem primitive by comparison with the SDO's product.  Nevertheless, the McMath-Pierce telescope is still in active use; it's size and ability to change sensors keep it useful...

Best optical illusion evah?

Best optical illusion evah?  I can't convince myself that the clip at right is on the up-and-up.  If it's really an optical illusion, it's so good that I can't see the reality.  That would make it a damned fine illusion!  Lots of comments on this Reddit thread...

Who's on first?

Who's on first?  Anyone old enough to remember Abbott and Costello will appreciate this :)  Via my lovely bride:

COSTELLO: I want to talk about the unemployment rate in America .

ABBOTT: Good Subject. Terrible Times. It’s 5.6%.

COSTELLO: That many people are out of work?

ABBOTT: No, that’s 23%.

COSTELLO: You just said 5.6%.

ABBOTT: 5.6% Unemployed.

COSTELLO: Right 5.6% out of work.

ABBOTT: No, that’s 23%.

COSTELLO: Okay, so it’s 23% unemployed.

ABBOTT: No, that’s 5.6%.

COSTELLO: WAIT A MINUTE. Is it 5.6% or 23%?

ABBOTT: 5.6% are unemployed. 23% are out of work.

COSTELLO: If you are out of work you are unemployed.

ABBOTT: No, Obama said you can’t count the “Out of Work” as the unemployed. You have to look for work to be unemployed.

COSTELLO: BUT THEY ARE OUT OF WORK!!!

ABBOTT: No, you miss his point.

COSTELLO: What point?

ABBOTT: Someone who doesn’t look for work can’t be counted with those who look for work. It wouldn’t be fair.

COSTELLO: To whom?

ABBOTT: The unemployed.

COSTELLO: But ALL of them are out of work.

ABBOTT: No, the unemployed are actively looking for work. Those who are out of work gave up looking and if you give up, you are no longer in the ranks of the unemployed.

COSTELLO: So if you’re off the unemployment roles that would count as less unemployment?

ABBOTT: Unemployment would go down. Absolutely!

COSTELLO: The unemployment just goes down because you don’t look for work?

ABBOTT: Absolutely it goes down. That’s how it gets to 5.6%. Otherwise it would be 23%.



COSTELLO: Wait, I got a question for you. That means there are two ways to bring down the unemployment number?

ABBOTT: Two ways is correct.

COSTELLO: Unemployment can go down if someone gets a job?

ABBOTT: Correct.

COSTELLO: And unemployment can also go down if you stop looking for a job?

ABBOTT: Bingo.

COSTELLO: So there are two ways to bring unemployment down, and the easier of the two is to have people stop looking for work.

ABBOTT: Now you’re thinking like a Democrat.

COSTELLO: I don’t even know what the hell I just said!

ABBOTT: Now you’re thinking like Hilary.

Yup, I'd say Costello got it. Now if only American voters would get it...

Paradise ponders...

Paradise ponders...  Oh, we had a fine evening yesterday!

Our dinner was spectacular – Debbie's baked salmon (Ora King, of course), Brussels sprouts (quartered, tossed with olive oil, salt, and pepper, and baked), and scalloped potatoes (a truly evil recipe with half-and-half, Gruyere cheese, and the wonderful bacon we get here).  My brother Scott was here with us, and it was fun to hear his moans and groans of gustatory pleasure.  Even the dogs got to share a bit, with scraps and enthusiastic plate-licking :)

Afterwards we played cards, our family standard game of “Oh, Shit!”  When trying to find the rules just now, I discovered that there are a bazillion variations on this game – we may have to try some :).  In any case, it was a pleasant and companionable way to spend a few hours together.

When it was time to end our evening, we poured a cup of tea into Scott to get him alert enough to drive safely back to his cabin.  Somehow I'm sure that when he got back to his house, he (briefly) contemplated putting his leftovers package into the refrigerator, and then simply ate it all...

I feel sorry for (almost) all of you...

I feel sorry for (almost) all of you...  Why?  First because you missed Debbie's chicken-mushroom soup.  We ate it all; finished it off yesterday afternoon.  It was so good!  Then because you're going to miss Debbie's baked Ora King salmon this afternoon (except for my brother Scott, who's joining us for dinner).  Much deliciousness around here!

I read articles...

I read articles ... like this one, and I wonder: does anyone believe a word she says?  That article is from NPR, and you'll note how carefully it avoids any judgment – or push-back, or statements of alternative views, etc.  If this (and other outlets just as carefully pro-Democrat) was your only source of news, you might be forgiven for siding with The Hillary.  But are their any prospective voters like that?  The chart at right (from RealClearPolitics this morning) says ... yes, there are. 

That's quite amazing to me.  And depressing.  Though if you're a Democrat and you think your only alternative it The Bernie...

Those burrowing humans!

Those burrowing humans!  This is the first I've heard of a proposed project (lots more here) to build a 92 kilometer (about 55 mile) long tunnel under the Baltic Sea between Helsinki, Finland and Tallinn, Estonia.  The estimated costs are up to 13 billion Euros.  Politicians nearly always underestimate such costs, so likely it would be more like 20 to 30 billion Euros (or $18 to $27 billion at today's exchange rates). 

I suspect the benefits for such a tunnel would be primarily for the Finns, who by virtue of their geography are relatively isolated from the rest of Europe.  That tunnel would give them direct access to all of Europe by rail, which is much less expensive than air travel.  Of course, it would also do the reverse: give all of Europe direct rail access to Finland.  One likely consequence of that I personally find unfortunate: there will be many more people traveling to the relatively isolated (and very beautiful) hinterlands of Finland...

Some very unsettled science...

Some very unsettled science...  Our understanding of human history has been constantly changing throughout my entire life (and of course, before that as well).  This, despite the very confident and (dare I say?) settled tone of all the texts and science books on the subject I've read, up until about 20 years ago.  At that point the relevant science communities seemed to collectively decide they were better off not claiming that they actually knew anything – instead, they've been concentrating on finding actual evidence (like the mammoth in this story). 

Why did that science community take the humbler approach, and the climatologists their fervently preachy approach?  The answer seems obvious: money.  There's no grant money riding on any particular answer from archaeology and anthropology.  Climatologists, on the other hand, know their grant money derives from fear of global warming.  It's conspicuously true that the (relatively few) dissenting voices in that community are almost entirely immune to this grant money influence, because of tenure, impending retirement, independent resources, etc.

Is object-oriented programming dead?

Is object-oriented programming dead?  Or a disaster?  It's interesting for us ancient geeks to survey the apparently never-ending train of code design fads.  I have personally experienced three major such fads: structured programming, object-oriented programming, and (the current one) functional programming.  In each case, proponents touted the earth-shaking power, beauty, and correctness of their fad with religious fervor – and, often, with the sort of fanaticism one all too often associates with fundamentalist religions.  In each case, the impact on how everyday programmers actually go about their work has been ... minimal. 

I'm not saying that there has been no progress made in understanding software design or architecture, and I'm certainly not saying that the state of software design and architecture hasn't progressed.  They have, and in major ways.  Teams of programmers today routinely build systems that are vastly larger and more complex than anything built even 10 years ago.  But I am saying that most of this progress has been made through developments other than those major software design fads.  We don't build large, complex systems today because of (say) object-oriented programming.  Mostly, I think, we can build them today because we have far better tools available (true in no small part to the open software movement), and on better programming languages. 

When I use IntelliJ Idea today to write Java or JavaScript code, I frequently marvel at its power compared to the tools I used in the late '70s.  It's like comparing Home Depot's tool section to a screwdriver with a broken handle and a boogered-up blade.  Those tools have made far more impact on my programming productivity, and on the reliability of the programs I write, than my inculcation into the fads of structured programming, object-oriented programming, and functional programming have.

And then there's the programming languages, which could quite reasonably be thought of as just another tool.  It's almost impossible to overstate the impact of the sheer power of a language like Java (and I'm including both its standard libraries and the host of open source libraries readily available for it) compared with the assembly language environment I programmed with back in the '70s.  I can quite literally code things in minutes in Java that would have taken months in assembly language back in those days. 

So is object-oriented programming dead?  Nah, not really.  But it's not all that important, either...

The snow-diving squirrel...

The snow-diving squirrel ... of Estonia.  Cute little bugger, isn't he?

Five little planets...

Five little planets ... all in a row.  Don't miss it!

Should space be commercialized?

Should space be commercialized?  Oh, hell yes, it should.  Profit-seeking should drive (and fund!) development in space, most especially manned space travel.  Fundamental to that would be property rights in space.  Aeon has a good piece on exactly this topic...

Misleading statistics...

Misleading statistics...  James Pethokoukis, writing at Ricochet, has a good takedown of the statistical analysis summarized by the graph at right.  This analysis (and the graph) was produced by Oxfam.  Among the many doozies one could infer from the graph is this one: that the U.S. has some of the poorest people in the world.  Really?

Yes, I am aware...

Yes, I am aware...  This is in reply to the (male!) reader who shall remain anonymous: yes, I am aware that the Day-by-Day cartoon I feature on the right occasionally has some depictions of nude women.  I happen to like naked women!  I wish they were featured more often :)  No, I will not remove it from my blog to protect your delicate (and, dare I say, somewhat warped) sensibilities.  If you don't like it, then don't visit here.

Physical therapy...

Physical therapy ... kicked Debbie out this morning!  It's all good, though: they said she no longer needs to go.  She can do all she needs at home.  We go back in two weeks for a checkup, but basically ... she's done!

With that, we will declare her surgery (just two weeks ago today!) a complete success...

Scharrkreise...

Scharrkreise...  Beautiful image at right of a perfect circle made by a plant, some wind, and some sand.  I've seen many similar circles made by desert lilies in the desert east of San Diego, but I never managed to capture it quite so perfectly as this photographer did...

Paradise ponders...

Paradise ponders...  I made a run to the grocery store yesterday, to pick up the ingredients for Debbie's chicken-mushroom soup (which I will be enjoying later this morning!).  On the way back from the grocery store, in a light drizzle, I was on a stretch of the highway with two lanes in each direction.  Passing through an area where the speed limit was 45 MPH, a pickup and I were traveling side-by-side, with me in the left lane.  Behind me a little car zoomed up to within a few feet of my rear bumper, and next thing I know it's honking at me, flashing its lights, and the driver (a middle-aged woman) was waving at me angrily.

Now that's the sort of thing one routinely sees on the highways of southern California, but not up here in northern Utah!  I was quite shocked, actually, as that sort of behavior is just not seen here.  Maybe 10 seconds after she approached my bumper, the truck on my right turned off the highway, and right away the lady behind me jerked to the right lane, zipped up right next to me, and rolled down her window – in the drizzle, mind you!  I looked over to see a foaming-at-the-mouth angry woman, flipping me the bird, and yelling something that I couldn't (thankfully!) hear.  Then she took off.

I was pondering the outrageousness of this behavior when I saw a police car behind me light off his flashy lights.  He zoomed by me on the right, and pulled over Ms. Outraged.  I pulled over right behind him, thinking I might be able to help somehow.  The cop got out of his car, waved at me in a friendly way, and walked up to her car.  After speaking with her for a minute, he came back to my truck and we had a nice conversation.  It turns out that Ms. Outraged is named Marsha, and she's well-known to the local cops.  She's had two previous incidents of aggressive driving and distracted driving; this would make the third – and the one that would cost her her license.  The cop asked me if I'd be willing to testify if she asked for a jury trial, and of course I said yes.  He took my contact info and a brief statement, then sent me on my way.  With a smile.  I can't imagine that ever happening in southern California!

Yesterday evening, Debbie and I watched The Martian on DVD.  I'd already read the book (which I loved!), but Debbie had not.  The movie did quite a good job of following the book, right up until the very last scene in space where the filmmaker took some liberties with the plot line.  Compared with most movies made from books, this was a small divergence.  As always, though, the book had far more detail than the movie could possibly cram in.  I enjoyed the movie, probably most especially the scenery.  I'm assuming that's all computer-generated, but it's still quite beautiful – even though it doesn't really match the photos I've seen of the Martian surface :)

Space flowers...

Space flowers...  The first flowers grown in space, some orange zinnias.  This was part of an experiment on the ISS designed to learn how to grow things in space.  I like the flower, but I hate the waste taxpayer dollars being spent on the ISS – most especially on the purposeless pursuit of manned space missions (which this experiment is part of)...

Still beautiful after all these months...

Still beautiful after all these months...  Comet 67P, imaged by the Rosetta robotic explorer...

I'm not surprised by this:

I'm not surprised by this: a new study casts doubt on the notion that smoking marijuana reduces cognitive function.  My lack of surprise isn't from personal experience, but rather from observation: a significant percentage (probably over half of those under 40) of the talented programmers I've worked with were regular marijuana users.  I saw no observable impact on their performance...

Curiosity and the dark dune of Mars...

Curiosity and the dark dune of Mars...  Curiosity has been studying some dark dunes on Mars for several weeks now.  The photo at right shows the main object of its study.  Go, Curiosity!  Via APOD, of course.   Full resolution photo here.

And speaking of Curiosity ... check out the recent photo it took (with the mast camera) at left.  The photo shows a soil analysis system mounted on Curiosity's deck.  The interesting thing to me here is all the accumulated dust.  Curiosity needs a good windstorm to blow all that crap off!

Synchronization and syntonization...

Synchronization and syntonization...  It's amazingly difficult for a computer to keep very precise time.  Anything more accurate than within a second or two of accepted standards is a major challenge. 

I first ran into this when working for an electronic trading company, where we were required (by regulatory agencies) to keep our logs accurate to sub-second levels.  When I was given responsibility for the IT organization, one of the first things the team hit me with was that we were out of compliance with the regulations.  In fact, our servers weren't even able to stay with 10 seconds of the “correct” time!  Fixing that problem took months of very hard work by several people on the team, mainly to make sure we had no delays (from network gear, mostly) between our logging servers and their time source. We also had to buy $20,000 worth of special “Stratum 1” NTP servers that were synced to atomic clocks on GPS satellites. 

It's gotten a little cheaper these days, but not really any easier...

A winner like ME!

A winner like ME!  My pistol-packing mama passed along this appearance by Donald Trump on the Jimmy Kimmel show.  It includes a segment (starting at around the 3:00 mark) that's pretty funny at first blush ... but then I got to thinking what it would be like to have a President Trump who would embody what's being spoofed here.  That's not a particularly pleasant or humorless thought.

Estonia looks better all the time, if only it didn't have Pesky Putin with a gun at its side...

No trouble...

No trouble...  Debbie's friend never has any trouble when she goes to the ATM, as she brings along her Smith and Wesson.  Smith is on the left, Wesson on the right!

Several scientific papers suggesting that GMO crops might be harmful...

Several scientific papers suggesting that GMO crops might be harmful ... may have been fraudulent.  Sadly, I'm not surprised.  Disappointed, yes.  Surprised?  Not so much.  This is of a piece with the typical “the ends justify the means” approach that the greenies and progressives routinely take...

So close!

So close!  Yesterday SpaceX attempted to land a Falcon 9 on a barge off the coast of California (after a launch from Vandenburg Air Force Base).  This was challenging for several reasons, not least of which was weather that had the barge heaving and rolling.  Nevertheless, as you can see in the video at right, the landing itself went perfectly.  After the rocket successfully touched down, one of the landing legs collapsed and the rocket fell over and exploded.

On the one hand, this must be very disappointing for the SpaceX team.  Of course they want the landing to be completely successful.  On the other hand, this was crazy-close to being that complete success.  So much went well that I have utterly no doubt that they will not only succeed one of these fine days, but they'll make it routine – and in the process, drastically reduce the cost of putting satellites into orbit.

From one perspective this is a fine story about the power of capitalism.  With a budget that is minuscule by NASA standards, SpaceX has (almost) done what NASA proclaimed impossible with any budget: made a reusable vertical-launch orbital-capable rocket.  One can quibble about the “subsidies” SpaceX is getting (in the form of launch contracts), but no matter how you look at it, those capitalists are giving us far more bang for the buck than the NASA technocrats ever did...

Making the primary mirror...

Making the primary mirror ... for gigantic astronomical telescopes.  This article has a nice description of the process; no jargon or math.

When I think about the artifacts that mankind produces, a few jump out as particularly amazing.  These mirrors are one.  Others that immediately come to mind include modern integrated circuits (especially CPUs and analog circuits), hard disk drives, and photo-realistic drawings...

Paradise ponders...

Paradise ponders...  We had a nice, slow day yesterday.  That's just what both Debbie and I needed, as we're both on the tail ends of a nasty sort of cold.  We're down to residual sniffles, the occasional hacking cough, and a bit of puniness; otherwise we're doing just fine.  It will feel great when this is gone!

We took a drive up to Hardware Ranch yesterday, despite this being “elk ride” season.  The elk are in enclosed pastures for the winter, and are as tame as cows.  The Hardware Ranch staff gives rides on rubber-wheeled wagons pulled by horses, right through the herd.  As you might imagine, there are unbelievable quantities of kids there.  Anyway, we were too early to see many deer (though we did see a few) – but there was plenty of beautiful winter scenery to see through the ongoing snowstorm.

Debbie made a new dish yesterday afternoon – a sort of Mexican lasagna.  Though it was a bit spicier than I prefer, it was very tasty.  The predominant flavors were chicken, chilies, cheese, and Mexican sour cream.  There were lasagna noodles, of course.  Overall it had the texture and flavor you'd expect from a great comfort food.  Next time she makes it, she's going to see if there's a way to tone down that spiciness.

We're looking forward to another easy, relaxing day today.  We got about three more inches of snow last night, which means there is now about 8" on the driveway.  I briefly considered plowing today, but talked myself out of it considering that there are four more inches in the forecast for Monday and Tuesday :)

Martian sand...

Martian sand ... close up.  Via Curiosity, of course...

Gaming the system...

Gaming the system...  Megan McArdle has a useful post up, explaining how it appears that Obamacare customers (victims?) are gaming the system, and how that's undermining the entire financial underpinnings of Obamacare.

As I look around at news reports and our own experiences with Obamacare, it looks to me like the unraveling is (a) already well underway, and (b) damned close to inevitable.  I've been surprised by how many people I've met who have no comprehensive understanding of how Obamacare works – but who know at expert level exactly how they can get around the rules to their personal advantage.  That's the very essence of “gaming the system”. 

This particular game is tilted in favor of two groups: the young and healthy, and people making less than roughly $100k a year.  Those two groups are, of course, not mutually exclusive – quite the opposite.  We're in neither group, so our best bet (at the moment, anyway) seems to be to survive until Medicare eligibility.  Until then, we get to help pay for everyone else's healthcare.  And I won't be a bit surprised to discover that when I reach 65, the rules have been changed in a way that steals even more of our money.  If Bernie Sanders gets elected, burying money is going to look quite attractive...

Data tampering...

Data tampering...  Tony Heller has a great (and typically detailed) post up that shows rather convincingly how NASA has tampered with their weather data to bolster the case for anthropogenic global warming (AGW). 

This tampering is accomplished in a manner that's familiar to anyone who watches what the government does: they didn't lie about the actual data – they just “adjusted” it.  They adjusted the hell out of it. 

If you're a regular reader of this blog, then you know another blatant example of this data tampering: the way the Bureau of Labor Statistics presents unemployment.  The number that gets the publicity is not the actual number of unemployed people (though that's what most people believe), but rather an “adjusted” number.  That adjusted number shows a far lower unemployment percentage than the actual reality.

This tampering is just as blatant.  The graph at upper right is one of the “tells”: it shows how much the actual measured temperature has been adjusted for various years.  The numbers that NASA presents are the measured temperatures plus this adjustment.  If the measured temperatures stayed perfectly flat (and in fact they're not far off that), then after adjustment they'd show – what a surprise! – the infamous “hockey stick” increase.

Corruption takes many forms.  This is one of them...

“We’ve just legalized mortgage fraud.”

“We’ve just legalized mortgage fraud.” That's Kevin Williamson, writing at the National Review, and I can't think of a better way to summarize it.  More:

But Fannie Mae, the organized-crime syndicate masquerading as a quasi-governmental entity, has other ideas. Under its new and cynically misnamed “HomeReady” program, borrowers with subprime credit don’t need to show that they have enough income to qualify for the mortgage they’re after — they simply have to show that all the people residing in their household put together have enough income to qualify for that mortgage. We’re not talking just about husbands and wives here, but any group of people who happen to share a roof and a mailing address. And some non-residents can be added, too, such as your parents.

That would be one thing if all these people were applying for a mortgage together, and were jointly on the hook for the mortgage payments. But that isn’t the case. HomeReady will permit borrowers to claim other people’s income for the purpose for qualifying for a mortgage, but will not give mortgage lenders any actual claim against that additional income.

This is madness.

Madness, indeed.  But it seems of a piece with our government's careening toward socialism and fantasy-based reckoning...