Monday, May 11, 2009

Temperature Data...

I've mentioned before the web-based efforts of Surface Stations to have volunteers audit and photograph all 1,221 official NOAA surface temperature measurement sites. They're not done yet, but they just passed a milestone: over 70% of those sites have now been audited. The graph at right shows the results.

These are the same sites that the NOAA and Jim Hansen of NASA specifically call out as being more accurate and more reliable that satellite-based temperature measurements. The cumulative errors that Surface Stations has now documented in these stations is approximately the same as the difference between the satellite measurements and the surface measurements.

In other words, the satellites are right.

And global warming isn't nearly as severe as its adherents would have us believe.

If I believed in an afterlife, I'd hope there was a special sort of hell reserved for corrupt scientists...

Sunday, May 10, 2009

Empathy...

Last week, after Justice Souter announced his retirement, Obama made some remarks that included this bit:
I will seek somebody with a sharp and independent mind and a record of excellence and integrity. I will seek someone who understands that justice isn't about some abstract legal theory or footnote in a case book. It is also about how our laws affect the daily realities of people's lives -- whether they can make a living and care for their families; whether they feel safe in their homes and welcome in their own nation. I view that quality of empathy, of understanding and identifying with people's hopes and struggles as an essential ingredient for arriving as just decisions and outcomes.
I've been stewing on this all week...it's the single most frightening thing I've heard Obama say yet (and that's saying something, as he's made some terrifying utterances). If you parse his words carefully, he's really saying this: he wants Supreme Court justices that ignore the law (including the Constitution), and instead make decisions based on their understanding of people's feelings (that's what “empathy” means).

Am I exaggerating, making too much of his rhetoric? I think not. I believe that he is saying here quite clearly what he wants – justices who won't think of themselves as bound by a musty old Constituition. He really does want justices willing to make decisions even that directly contradict the Constitution, so long as those decisions correspond to where Obama wants the country to go.

We've seen this scenario play out quite recently, and not so far from home. This is exactly what happened in Venezuela, where now the “socialist” (thugalist, really) Hugo Socialist has made the country over in his image.

How are we going to get our country back?

Saturday, May 9, 2009

Using Stars as Gravity Wave Telescopes...

Now this is just plain cool!

Scientists have come up with what appears to be a completely practical way to use a special kind of star (millisecond pulsars) to construct a grand telescope for gravity waves. This telescope would be far cheaper to construct than both already-built and proposed Earth-bound gravity wave detectors – and it would actually produce an “image” (something no Earth-bound detector could hope to do). In addition, it would work at some of the most interesting, and very low, frequencies. Read more in Science News and this paper...

Sunspots...

I've posted before about the unusually low number of sunspots we're seeing right now, and about the correlation between the number of sunspots and the overall solar radiation. It may seem a little counterintuitive, but the fact is that the sun radiates more energy when there are more sunspots, and vice versa.

Well, the low number of sunspots continues. At the moment we are experiencing the longest sustained period of low sunspot occurrence since 1928, and there's no end in sight yet. That also means we're experiencing a long and sustained reduction in solar radiation output, and therefore of its heating of the Earth. Historically periods of low sunspot activity have correlated nicely with periods of lower temperatures on the Earth, most famously with the period known as the Maunder Minimum. Naturally, the warmenists loudly proclaim that variations in sunspot activity will have no impact on the Earth's climate – they are certain that the correlations of historical low sunspot activity and low temperatures is entirely coincidental.

Looks like we may have a chance here to find out for sure. If our low sunspot activity continues for another year or so, the warmenists will have a hard time explaining a “coincidental” drop in global temperatures. Which, by the way, we're already seeing.

Baby Ground Squirrels...

In our back yard:


You can see a higher quality version on YouTube.

Wednesday, May 6, 2009

We Haven't Disappeared!

Sorry for the lack of posts, folks. The past couple of weeks have been somewhat chaotic – I'm currently (a) holding down my job, (b) caring for my wife who broke her arm a couple weeks ago, (c) attending and speaking at the Service-now Knowledge09 user conference, and (d) doing most of the chores at home, as they're impossible for a one-armed wife to do.

The foregoing leaves me with but little time for fun things like my blog.

But I'll be back...

P.S. Debbie's doing fine, though she had a slight setback yesterday. She went to the doctor's office to have a new cast put on, as the old one was causing problems with her elbow (pressure and chafing). The doctor removed the old cast and discovered that her bones weren't in the perfect position – so there was some (very) painful “repositioning” before the new cast was put on. Ouch! But despite that, she's actually doing just fine – her bones are in the right place now, and her new cast doesn't extend over her elbow, so the discomfort caused by her cast is completely gone...

Saturday, April 25, 2009

Quote of the Day (Extended Edition)...

Read and absorb this:

And that is why we should not revert to the foreign policy of years gone by, of the world weary, the supposedly sensible practitioners of caution and expediency, who think they see the world for what it is, without the illusions of the idealist who sees what it could be.

We should remember what such expediency led us to, what such caution produced. Here is where I remain adamantly in the same spot, metaphorically as well as actually, of ten years ago, that evening in this city. The statesmanship that went before regarded politics as a Bismarck or Machiavelli regarded it. It's all a power play; a matter, not of right or wrong, but of who's on our side, and our side defined by our interests, not our values. The notion of humanitarian intervention was the meddling of the unwise, untutored and inexperienced.

But was it practical to let Pakistan develop as it did in the last thirty years, without asking what effect the madrassas would have on a generation educated in them? Or wise to employ the Taliban to drive the Russians out of Afghanistan? Or to ask Saddam to halt Iran? Was it really experienced statesmanship that let thousands upon thousands die in Bosnia before we intervened or turned our face from the genocide of Rwanda?

Or to form alliances with any regime, however bad, because they solve 'today' without asking whether they will imperil 'tomorrow'? This isn't statesmanship. It is just politics practiced for the most comfort and the least disturbance in the present moment.

I never thought such politics very sensible or practical. I think it even less so now. We live in the era of interdependence; the idea that if we let a problem fester, it will be contained within its boundaries no longer applies. That is why leaving Africa to the ravages of famine, conflict and disease is not just immoral but immature in its political understanding. Their problems will become ours.

And this struggle we face now cannot be defeated by staying out; but by sticking in, abiding by our values not retreating from them.

It is a cause that must be defeated by a better cause. That cause is one of open, tolerant, outward-looking societies in which people respect diversity and difference in which peaceful co-existence can flourish. It is a cause that has to be fought for; with hearts and minds as well as arms, of course. But fought for, nonetheless with the courage to see it through and the confidence that the cause is just, right and the only way the future of our world can work.

This is from a speech by a politician we would consider quite “liberal”, as that term is used in American politics – spoken by Tony Blair, former British Prime Minister, just the other day in Chicago.

If we had a Democrat who thought this clearly, who communicated with such clarity, who was so direct and specific, and whose view of the existential threat posed by Islamic fundamentalism was so closely aligned with mine – I'd vote for him, regardless of the many other liberal views he held that I disagreed with.

Because this is the most important thing, the threat to our very being.

And this is what scares me the most about Obama. The rest is just details...

Wednesday, April 22, 2009

Your Eyes Suck at Blue...

The fetching lass at right is Traci, whose entire involvement with this post is as a demonstrater model – for an interesting visual phenomenon that has some real-world implications for how we store and display photographs.

The gist of this notion is that our eyes pick up very little detail in blue. More precisely, our spatial resolution in blue is far worse than it is in green (especially) or red. This means that an image's actual quality in blue isn't very important to our perception of it – and that means there's a compression opportunity.

Check out the all the details in this excellent article.

Snow Rollers...

These are a natural phenomenon I'd never heard of before – the rare “snow roller”. In this particular case they were spotted on the Idaho panhandle.

Check it out!

WTF?

First, absorb this statement concerning Abdiwali Abdiqadir Muse, the sole surviving pirate of the group that hijacked the Maersk Alabama:

"I think in this particular case, there's a grave question as to whether America was in violation of principles of truce in warfare on the high seas. This man seemed to come onto the Bainbridge under a flag of truce to negotiate. He was then captured. There is a question whether he is lawfully in American custody and serious questions as to whether he can be prosecuted because of his age."

What's your reaction to that?

If you said to yourself “Yeah, why are they prosecuting this poor guy?”, then please leave my website and move to somewhere like, say, France.

If you said to yourself “I need more ammunition and less lawyers”, well, then, you're in the right place.

So far as I'm concerned, the only mistake our military made with the surviving pirate is the word “surviving”.

More SEALs, fewer lawyers.

More direct, substantive and effective action, less arrogant and effete blathering.

Oh, I guess those two statements are more or less equivalent, aren't they?

Thursday, April 16, 2009

Tuesday, April 14, 2009

Sunday, April 12, 2009

Quote of the Day...

From the Wall Street Journal:
The kidnapped captain of the Maersk Alabama has been rescued and is safe aboard a U.S. Navy ship.
Wonderful. Just plain wonderful.

And I can't help but love the image this projects to the world and to the cursed Somali pirates: you screw around with an American ship, not only do you not have a crew, a ship, and a cargo to ransom – you die at the hands of American warriors.

Feeling lucky, punks?

Guess not, eh?

I don't often agree with Obama on anything at all, but from what I've read he played this exactly right – especially issuing standing orders to the men on the scene to use deadly force if they felt Captain Phillips' life was in danger. No micromanagement like Carter – much to his credit, Obama left this to the pros.

And those pros pulled off something very impressive here. I can tell you from personal experience in the Navy that a lifeboat towed some 80 feet behind a warship is going to be bobbing and weaving all over the place – not an easy shot, even at the relatively short range. The three Somali pirate assholes had guns to the head of Captain Phillips, and the Seals took all three of them out before they could fire a shot. Nice work, guys. And thank you, sirs, for your service to this country.

A Little Advenure...

Debbie and I did a little four-wheeling today, in a beautiful area that was entirely new to us – to our shame, as it's very close to home! We drove through areas between Corte Madera, Skye Valley, and Lake Morena, as you can see on this map. We took a big loop, counter-clockwise from a junction called “Four Corners”.

The first part of the trip as we left Four Corners was our favorite part – from there up to Los Pinos, down to the saddle between Los Pinos and Corte Madera, and then down Espinoza Creek to the Corte Madera road. This stretch had it all: grand views (especially of Corte Madera itself), pine forests, meadows, and oak forest.

Shortly after the junction with Corte Madera Road (where we start to head down toward about 10 o'clock on our loop) we entered lands that burned in the October 2007 wildfires. While it was interesting to see the recovery, and there were some beautiful wildflowers in there, we still much prefer the unburned areas.

Here are some more photos from today:


Saturday, April 11, 2009

Some Casino News...

Though I'm not entirely sure what it means... From the San Diego Union-Tribune:
The Jamul Indian band has dropped a lawsuit in which it was accusing state officials of meddling with its casino plans.

Neither side explained what was behind the joint request to dismiss the lawsuit in San Diego federal court.

A spokesman for the California Department of Transportation, or Caltrans, said he couldn't talk about the case until the judge agreed to dismiss it.

Repeated calls to tribal officials and their lawyers were not returned.

However, a lawyer for a group of neighbors opposed to the casino said the tribe agreed to submit its plans to a state environmental review.

There are several possibilities here. The one that seems most likely to me (but keep in mind that I am not a lawyer, nor do I have full knowledge of the situation) is that the Jamul Indians no longer have the financial resources to pursue this expensive litigation, and they are probably under some pressure from Lakes Entertainment to resolve the situation in such a way that some kind of profitable casino can be built, so...they reached an accommodation with CalTrans.

So I'm afraid this probably increases the chances of a casino being built...but most likely it would be a casino at a much-reduced scale.

Friday, April 3, 2009

Another Dog Found!

A reader emailed me with news of a dog wandering around the area around Lyons Valley Road and Jamul Highlands Road – near the Mormon Church and just down the street from the middle school. He's a nice-looking dog, but won't let anybody approach. He must be looking for his owner!

My reader isn't sure if the dog has a collar or tags. If this dog looks familiar to you, take a look around that area. If you've got questions or need more information, write me and I can relay your questions to my reader...

Thursday, April 2, 2009

Dog Found!

Amber from the Steele Canyon Veterinary clinic writes to say that a male dog has been found near the Jamul Post Office. It's currently at the clinic (behind the 7-11 at the corner of Campo Road and Steele Canyon Road). You can reach them at 619/669-7274.

This dog would like to go home – if your little guy is missing, do give them a jingle...

Monday, March 30, 2009

Criminals Prefer Unarmed Citizens!



I guess we're just counter-cultural and/or primitive out here in the sticks. Any miscreant showing his face at our home will be met with warnings, curses, and supersonic lead. But mostly supersonic lead.

Casino Pessimism...

From Sign On San Diego, an article that sounds a bit pessimistic about the prospects for the Jamul Indian Casino. From the article:

Federal recognition is required for tribes to receive federal aid and participate in government programs. It's also necessary to conduct gaming.

For a tribe like Jamul, the Supreme Court's decision “raises questions about the status of the land,” Indian law expert Kathryn Rand said.

“Those questions might ultimately be decided in favor of the tribe, but . . . they are dependent upon the particular circumstances surrounding the tribe's recognition and the land taken into trust,” said Rand, a law professor who co-founded the Institute for the Study of Tribal Gaming Law and Policy at the University of North Dakota.

Rand said she would expect state and local officials – who have battled Jamul's plans to build a casino – to raise those issues.

Good. Jamul with a casino would be forever changed for the worse...

Good vs. Evil...

Reader Linda I. sent in this photo of a 3 foot long King snake that's just about finished with his lunch: a smaller rattlesnake. The only part of the rattlesnake that's still visible is the rattles, and I'm sure those didn't last long!

Many people have such a fear of rattlesnakes that they tend to brand all snakes as vermin. The reality is that we have more good snakes (King snakes and gopher snakes, especially) than bad snakes (if you subscribe to the notion that rattlesnakes are bad). Rattlesnakes are especially good at controlling the populations of small rodents, so they're not entirely evil themselves – but if your pets or small children have the run of your yard, you might find it hard to think of rattlesnakes as anything other than a mortal enemy...

Jonny Dallo's Real Sentence...

An anonymous reader sends this word:
I just want to say about the whole Johnny Dallo situation that on your blog it says he got a year and he did but, I just want to say that at the end of it all--he didn't even serve that he barely served 2 1/2 months for killing Jodi and now he's getting married. Well just to let you know the 1 year came down to that. What ever sentence anyone gets it doesn't mean that's the time that there really going to serve it gets cut down.
Assuming this is accurate (I have no way to verify it), it gives the appearance of “justice” being purchased.

If you don't remember the Jonny Dallo case, read my previous posts on the matter. The short version: Jonny Dallo, a repeat traffic offender, was travelling down Campo Road (State 94) at around 100 MPH around 4 am on June 28, 2006. He rear-ended Jodi Burnett's pickup while she was in the left-turn lane, killing her. Jonny Dallo's father is a wealthy local businessman. Jonny was charged, but the case was plea-bargained down to a guilty plea for involuntary manslaughter and he was sentenced to one year in jail (a travesty all by itself).

Now this news.

Somehow I don't believe that I'd end up so lightly punished, were I to find myself in Jonny Dallo's position...

Monday, March 23, 2009

What's UP?

From my mom:
There is a two-letter word in English that perhaps has more meanings than any other two-letter word, and that word is 'UP.' It is listed in the dictionary as being used as an [adv], [prep], [adj], [n] or [v].

It's easy to understand UP, meaning toward the sky or at the top of the list, but when we awaken in the morning, why do we wake UP?

At a meeting, why does a topic come UP ? Why do we speak UP, and why are the officers UP for election and why is it UP to the secretary to write UP a report? We call UP our friends and we use it to brighten UP a room, polish UP the silver, we warm UP the leftovers and clean UP the kitchen. We lock UP the house and some guys fix UP the old car.

At other times the little word has a real special meaning. People stir UP trouble, line UP for tickets, work UP an appetite, and think UP excuses.

To be dressed is one thing but to be dressed UP is special.

And this up is confusing: A drain must be opened UP because it is stopped UP.

We open UP a store in the morning but we close it UP at night. We seem to be pretty mixed UP about UP!

To be knowledgeable about the proper uses of UP, look the word UP in the dictionary. In a desk-sized dictionary, it takes UP almost 1/4 of the page and can add UP to about thirty definitions.

If you are UP to it, you might try building UP a list of the many ways UP is used. It will take UP a lot of your time, but if you don't give UP , you may wind UP with a hundred or more.

When it threatens to rain, we say it is clouding UP. When the sun comes out we say it is clearing UP. When it rains, it wets UP the earth. When it does not rain for awhile, things dry UP.

One could go on & on, but I'll wrap it UP, for now...my time is UP, so time to shut UP!
It all makes sense to me!

Local Burglaries...

Kimberlee Quarles, who is a neighbor of ours, wrote to make us aware of some burglaries occuring in the area. An excerpt from her blog post, with recent incidents:
INFORMATION REGARDING SUSPICIOUS ACTIVITY AND BURGLARIES IN JAMUL
AS OF MARCH 18, 2009

Prior to March 10

A man was knocking on doors in the neighbor hood asking for work. He gave one of them a flyer that supposedly had his name (James Merson) and contact information. This man spoke with [a resident of Jamul Highlands] for some time and claimed to have worked for a local contractor. When the resident checked with that contractor they were told noone of that name had ever worked there. Both the resident and I called the phone number on the flyer, 619-342-8964, and it is not in service.

The home at 14782 Olive Vista was robbed twice in the week before March 10. Eleven guns, jewelry, tools, etc. were stolen.

There has also been strange activity at the end of Jamul Highlands – men fiddling with the lock on the gate up there, unknown vehicles hanging out, and groups of illegals coming through.

Tuesday, March 10

Our home at 2875 Jamul Highlands was burglarized sometime between 9 a.m. and 4 p.m. I have been told there were a total of four burglaries that day, but the only address I have for another home is 3028 Jamul Highlands. The woman at that home told me she was only gone from 8:30 a.m. to 10:30 a.m. and the house was broken into during that time.

Thursday, March 11

A Hispanic male in camouflage clothing and a lime green hat with several large bags obviously full of items was observed hanging around near 3025 Jamul Highlands. I called it in. The deputy responded quickly but the man was gone. I believe the deputy spoke to the woman there.

In the afternoon an attempted burglary occurred at 3191 Jamul Highlands Road .

Friday, March 12

Late in the afternoon two Hispanic males (probably in their 20's) with shaved heads in a white Silverado truck, lowered and with rims, went aft er a young teenage boy who lives on our street, chasing him on his expensive “50" dirt bike (so close they almost ran him down) from the dead end of Jamul Highlands all the way down the road and then chasing him on foot when he went off onto the dirt road near 3025 Jamul Highlands. A young man at a nearby house intervened and asked the men what they were doing, but apparently they did not respond and instead got back into the truck and took off. The young man followed them up Lyons Valley Road and was able to get their license plate number, which is CA 7W49564, and went home. This same truck was seen on Jamul Highlands shortly after but left when they saw they were being observed by the same young man.

I have been told that the Sheriff’s Department checked the plate and the vehicle belongs to someone in Valley Center . I checked with the neighbors at the end of the road and they do not know anyone or have anyone visit their home of this description. There seems to be no reason why these individuals would be in the area (especially several times) or why they would chase a boy, other than possibly to stea l his dirt bike. Someone at the dead end of Jamul Highlands can watch the comings and goings of our neighborhood from that vantage point.

Monday, March 16

I have been told that as of this date, there was a third attempt to break into a home at 14782 Olive Vista.
Read Kimberlee's entire post for all the details.

Command-Line Fu...

Here's a site that any geek will love: Command-line-fu. It lets anyone post their favorite command line hacks, and then the readers vote (up or down) on them, or comment on them. The idea is to organically find the most useful hacks, and to let you find the hack you want very easily.

Cool stuff, in a very geekly way...

Friday, March 20, 2009

Photo Contest Finalists...

From the Sony World Photography Awards. See them all here.

Quote of the Day (II)...

This is a soothing balm for a citizen feeling much abraded by the shenanigans of most of the politicians on the national stage:
We are not requesting funds intended to just grow government. We are not requesting more money for normal day-to-day operations of government as part of this economic stimulus package. In essence we say no to operating funds for more positions in government.
Who said that?

Sarah Palin, yesterday, as she rejected over $400M of bailout money targeted for her state of Alaska.

Make all the fun of her you'd like to. In her actions, she continues to make more sense than nearly everyone else, including (most especially) that collection of buffoons and bozos in Washington who are so busy stealing your money to spend it on their favorite porky projects. And she's not at all afraid to take an unpopular position to do the right thing.

You go, girl. If you run again, you'll get my vote...

Quote of the Day (Extended Edition)...

First, the one-liner:
Why do we never hear calls for Hamas leaders to be charged with war crimes?
This is from a most interesting speech by Rupert Murdoch. Here's his conclusion:

My friends, I do not pretend to have all the answers to Gaza this evening. But I do know this: The free world makes a terrible mistake if we deceive ourselves into thinking this is not our fight.

In the end, the Israeli people are fighting the same enemy we are: cold-blooded killers who reject peace, who reject freedom and who rule by the suicide vest, the car bomb and the human shield.

Against such an enemy, I will not second-guess the decisions of a free Israel defending her citizens. And I would ask all those who support peace and freedom to do the same.

And you can (and should!) read the whole thing.

Thursday, March 19, 2009

Where Did I Go Wrong?

Reader Larry E. writes:
So, where did I go wrong?

I wonder about this. I know people that try to “live for today” and I always thought they were foolish. I was busily saving for retirement. Saving and investing to provide security for my family rather than buying the next boat or RV.

Clearly I was wrong.

What I should have done was take out a couple hundred k in equity when I refinanced. This way I’d currently be upside down on my loan and maybe get me a little of that bailout. AND have that boat and RV.

What I should have done it take a nice trip to the Bahamas instead of stuffing money in my 401k so it could be stolen while regulators looked the other way.

What I should have done is by a nice motorcycle or that new flat screen instead of putting money in my savings account where it could actually evaporate as the government devalues the dollar (and therefore the value of my labor) by passing out billions like candy.
I've had similar thoughts myself. Trouble is, the largesse is unsustainable if too many people act on such feelings. Printing money (whether we do it, or the government does it) can't create real wealth. Rewarding the idiots and cheaters, whether with freshly printed money or with money stolen from actual producers, can't create real wealth either. These truths are so self-evident that I can't conceive of anyone denying them – and indeed, the Obama administration and their fellow leftists don't deny them with their words.

But they do with their actions...

Tom Paine on YouTube...

From my cousin Mike:


While there's a lot in this rant I don't agree with, it's a great rant.

In recent days my hopes for the political future of America have all boiled down to really just one thing: the hope that the bumbling, radical-left Obama administration will finally jog enough Americans out of their political apathy that we actually can throw the bums out.

I know, I know, I harbor wild fantasies...

Sunday, March 15, 2009

Our Dying Newspapers...

A fascinating article by Clay Shirky. A sample:

Society doesn’t need newspapers. What we need is journalism. For a century, the imperatives to strengthen journalism and to strengthen newspapers have been so tightly wound as to be indistinguishable. That’s been a fine accident to have, but when that accident stops, as it is stopping before our eyes, we’re going to need lots of other ways to strengthen journalism instead.

When we shift our attention from ’save newspapers’ to ’save society’, the imperative changes from ‘preserve the current institutions’ to ‘do whatever works.’ And what works today isn’t the same as what used to work.

As a society, we need journalism – but we don't need newspapers. The quality of journalism, in general, has been declining for 20 years or so. Newspapers these days, with rare exceptions, certainly aren't delivering it. So where's it going to come from?

Clay Shirky asserts that not only don't we know, we can't know – not for a while, at least. Not until the Internet revolution has settled down a bit...

The lack of quality investigative journalism opens a door of opportunity for political operatives, by reducing the risk of discovery when they're doing something nefarious. Which means that the Internet revolution and its impact on journalism may actually be bad for our near-term political circumstances.

Revolutionized journalism? Faster, please...

Wednesday, March 11, 2009

Jamul Casino Update...

Good news for opponents. Here's an excerpt from the latest Lakes Entertainment filing (even more detail at the link):
Lakes has contracts to develop and finance a casino to be built on the reservation of the Jamul Indian Village (the 'Jamul Tribe') located near San Diego, California. This project has been delayed due to various political and regulatory issues related to access to the proposed casino site. Because of these issues and the increasingly uncertain financial and credit markets, during the fourth quarter of 2008, Lakes reduced the value of its assets associated with the project. Although the value of Lakes' assets related to the Jamul Casino project were significantly lowered, Lakes currently expects to continue with the project. Lakes acknowledges that significant risk exists related to this project. However, the Jamul Tribe has the two basic requirements to eventually build a successful project - federal recognition as an Indian Tribe and Indian land eligible for gaming. Lakes has concluded that it is not currently in its best interest to terminate its involvement with the Jamul Casino project altogether. Lakes will continue to monitor the status of this project.

Net unrealized losses on notes receivable relate to the Company's notes receivable from Indian tribes, which are adjusted to estimated fair value based upon the current status of the related tribal casino projects and evolving market conditions. In the fourth quarter of 2008, net unrealized losses on notes receivable were $18.8 million, compared to net unrealized losses of $1.3 million in the prior-year period. The net unrealized losses in the fourth quarter of 2008 were primarily due to the recognition of the loss associated with the project with the Jamul Tribe in the amount of $11.8 million, discussed above. Lakes also recognized an impairment on intangible assets and land held for development related to the Jamul project in the amount of $20.0 million during the fourth quarter of 2008. Unrealized losses on the notes receivable from the Shingle Springs Tribe related to the Red Hawk Casino were approximately $6.6 million, and resulted primarily from a decline in projected interest rates and an increase in the discount rate associated with this project as a result of financial market conditions.
I've highlighted the key qualifiers in the report. Remember that in filings such as this one, the company will spin every event in the most positive language their auditors and lawyers will let them get away with. My own interpretation of the above, minus the spin:

“This turkey is almost done. Unless a miracle occurs, we're going to wrap it in newspaper and bury it.”

This thing is going south in a hurry. Couldn't happen too soon for me...

Tuesday, March 10, 2009

The Foldin' State...

Mark Steyn manages to make me smile, even as he laments what's happening to California:

The Times of London put it this way: “Arnie Schwarzenegger Joins the Ranks of Girlie Men.”

Quite. As is well known, the Terminator has been unable to terminate anything — not even the impact study group studying the impact of expanding the Department of Impact Studies. The man who walloped his predecessor for fiscal profligacy has managed to preside over a California budget that’s expanded 40 percent (so far) since the good old Gray days. Sacramento is piling on an extra million-and-three-quarter dollars of debt every hour, 24/7. The Golden State is a foldin’ state, going out of business — a far cry from when Ahnuld arrived as a penniless immigrant in a land of plenty. Now he’s an immigrant of plenty in a penniless land. Another Californian actor-governor famously observed that “we are a nation that has a government, not the other way around.” In Collyvornya, it’s the other way round. Doing your ’08 tax return? If you’re expecting a refund, Sacramento’s stopped the check: Instead you receive an IOU saying they’ll get around to it when they can. On the other hand, if you owe them money, don’t expect reciprocal treatment. As the governor’s celebrated catchphrase has it: “Ah’ll be back — for more of your money.”

Read the whole thing.

Sunday, March 8, 2009

Memorable Insults...

A collection of excellent and memorable insults, forwarded by my mom:
The exchange between Churchill and Lady Astor: She said, "If you were my husband, I'd give you poison," and he said, "If you were my wife, I'd take it."

Gladstone, a Member of Parliament, to Benjamin Disraeli: "Sir, you will either die on the gallows or of some unspeakable disease."
"That depends, sir," said Disraeli, "On whether I embrace your policies or your mistress."

"He had delusions of adequacy."
Walter Kerr

"He has all the virtues I dislike and none of the vices I admire." -
Winston Churchill

"A modest little person, with much to be modest about."
Winston Churchill

"I have never killed a man, but I have read many obituaries with great pleasure."
Clarence Darrow

"He has never been known to use a word that might send a reader to the dictionary."
William Faulkner (about Ernest Hemingway)

"Poor Faulkner. Does he really think big emotions come from big words?"
Ernest Hemingway (about William Faulkner)

"Thank you for sending me a copy of your book; I'll waste no time reading it."
Moses Hadas

"He can compress the most words into the smallest idea of any man I know."
Abraham Lincoln

"I didn't attend the funeral, but I sent a nice letter saying I approved of it."
Mark Twain

"He has no enemies, but is intensely disliked by his friends."
Oscar Wilde

"I am enclosing two tickets to the first night of my new play; bring a friend . . . if you have one."
George Bernard Shaw (to Winston Churchill)

"Cannot possibly attend first night, will attend second . . . if there is one."
Winston Churchill (in response)

"I feel so miserable without you; it's almost like having you here."
Stephen Bishop

"He is a self-made man and worships his creator."
John Bright

"I've just learned about his illness. Let's hope it's nothing trivial."
Irvin S. Cobb

"He is not only dull himself, he is the cause of dullness in others."
Samuel Johnson

"He is simply a shiver looking for a spine to run up."
Paul Keating

"There's nothing wrong with you that reincarnation won't cure."
Jack E. Leonard

"He has the attention span of a lightning bolt."
Robert Redford

"They never open their mouths without subtracting from the sum of human knowledge."
Thomas Brackett Reed

"In order to avoid being called a flirt, she always yielded easily."
Charles, Count Talleyrand

"He loves nature in spite of what it did to him."
Forrest Tucker

"Why do you sit there looking like an envelope without any address on it?"
Mark Twain

"His mother should have thrown him away and kept the stork"
Mae West

"Some cause happiness wherever they go; others, whenever they go."
Oscar Wilde

"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts . .. for support rather than illumination."
Andrew Lang

"He has Van Gogh's ear for music."
Billy Wilder

"I've had a perfectly wonderful evening. But this wasn't it."
Groucho Marx
Oh, how I wish I had the ability to cast such lovely insults!

Interesting Take on BHO...

From someone I'd never heard of before: Anne Wortham, professor at Southern Illinois University. Here's the complete text of her column:

Fellow Americans,

Please know: I am black; I grew up in the segregated South. I did not vote for Barack Obama; I wrote in Ron Paul’s name as my choice for president. Most importantly, I am not race conscious. I do not require a black president to know that I am a person of worth, and that life is worth living. I do not require a black president to love the ideal of America.

I cannot join you in your celebration. I feel no elation. There is no smile on my face. I am not jumping with joy. There are no tears of triumph in my eyes. For such emotions and behavior to come from me, I would have to deny all that I know about the requirements of human flourishing and survival – all that I know about the history of the United States of America, all that I know about American race relations, and all that I know about Barack Obama as a politician. I would have to deny the nature of the "change" that Obama asserts has come to America. Most importantly, I would have to abnegate my certain understanding that you have chosen to sprint down the road to serfdom that we have been on for over a century. I would have to pretend that individual liberty has no value for the success of a human life. I would have to evade your rejection of the slender reed of capitalism on which your success and mine depend. I would have to think it somehow rational that 94 percent of the 12 million blacks in this country voted for a man because he looks like them (that blacks are permitted to play the race card), and that they were joined by self-declared "progressive" whites who voted for him because he doesn’t look like them. I would have to be wipe my mind clean of all that I know about the kind of people who have advised and taught Barack Obama and will fill posts in his administration – political intellectuals like my former colleagues at the Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government.

I would have to believe that "fairness" is equivalent of justice. I would have to believe that man who asks me to "go forward in a new spirit of service, in a new service of sacrifice" is speaking in my interest. I would have to accept the premise of a man that economic prosperity comes from the "bottom up," and who arrogantly believes that he can will it into existence by the use of government force. I would have to admire a man who thinks the standard of living of the masses can be improved by destroying the most productive and the generators of wealth.

Finally, Americans, I would have to erase from my consciousness the scene of 125,000 screaming, crying, cheering people in Grant Park, Chicago irrationally chanting "Yes We Can!" Finally, I would have to wipe all memory of all the times I have heard politicians, pundits, journalists, editorialists, bloggers and intellectuals declare that capitalism is dead – and no one, including especially Alan Greenspan, objected to their assumption that the particular version of the anti-capitalistic mentality that they want to replace with their own version of anti-capitalism is anything remotely equivalent to capitalism.

So you have made history, Americans. You and your children have elected a black man to the office of the president of the United States, the wounded giant of the world. The battle between John Wayne and Jane Fonda is over – and that Fonda won. Eugene McCarthy and George McGovern must be very happy men. Jimmie Carter, too. And the Kennedys have at last gotten their Kennedy look-a-like. The self-righteous welfare statists in the suburbs can feel warm moments of satisfaction for having elected a black person. So, toast yourselves: 60s countercultural radicals, 80s yuppies and 90s bourgeois bohemians. Toast yourselves, Black America. Shout your glee Harvard, Princeton, Yale, Duke, Stanford, and Berkeley. You have elected not an individual who is qualified to be president, but a black man who, like the pragmatist Franklin Roosevelt, promises to – Do Something! You now have someone who has picked up the baton of Lyndon Johnson’s Great Society. But you have also foolishly traded your freedom and mine – what little there is left – for the chance to feel good. There is nothing in me that can share your happy obliviousness.

Your happy obliviousness...

Well, That Didn't Take Long...

Less than 60 days in office, and already the BHO henchmen are coming after our guns:
Blair Holt's Firearm Licensing and Record of Sale Act of 2009 - Amends the Brady Handgun Violence Prevention Act to prohibit a person from possessing a firearm unless that person has been issued a firearm license under this Act or a state system certified under this Act and such license has not been invalidated or revoked. Prescribes license application, issuance, and renewal requirements.
Prohibits transferring or receiving a qualifying firearm unless the recipient presents a valid firearms license, the license is verified, and the dealer records a tracking authorization number. Prescribes firearms transfer reporting and record keeping requirements. Directs the Attorney General to establish and maintain a federal record of sale system.
Prohibits: (1) transferring a firearm to any person other than a licensee, unless the transfer is processed through a licensed dealer in accordance with national instant criminal background check system requirements, with exceptions; (2) a licensed manufacturer or dealer from failing to comply with reporting and record keeping requirements of this Act; (3) failing to report the loss or theft of the firearm to the Attorney General within 72 hours; (4) failing to report to the Attorney General an address change within 60 days; or (5) keeping a loaded firearm, or an unloaded firearm and ammunition for the firearm, knowingly or recklessly disregarding the risk that a child is capable of gaining access, if a child uses the firearm and causes death or serious bodily injury.
Prescribes criminal penalties for violations of firearms provisions covered by this Act.
Directs the Attorney General to: (1) establish and maintain a firearm injury information clearinghouse; (2) conduct continuing studies and investigations of firearm-related deaths and injuries; and (3) collect and maintain current production and sales figures of each licensed manufacturer.
Authorizes the Attorney General to certify state firearm licensing or record of sale systems.
There's no doubt in my mind that should this bill make it into law, within a few years it will be well-nigh impossible for ordinary citizens to own guns – despite the clarity of our Constitution on that point. There won't be a ban, and hence no Constitutional issue. Instead, the bureaucracy will simply make it incredibly difficult and expensive to get (and stay) qualified to own a gun. Most citizens will either give up, or will own their guns illegally at great risk to themselves and their families.

For my part, any Senator or Congressman who votes for this bill will never get my support. Not that they care much about that...

Sound off to your congresscritters, even if you have to hold your nose and avert your eyes while writing their name on the envelope or email. I wrote to Barbara Boxer and Diane Feinstein – if I can do that, you can write yours...

Orlosky Acquitted...

I don't know any more than what this article says – but this much is plain: “Bob” Orlosky is now cleared of all charges. He claimed that he killed Charles Crow justifiably, in defense of himself and his property – and a jury of his peers agreed with him.

This case is very troubling for residents out here, from both the perspective of those who champion the right of self-defense, and from those who believe that Orlosky either deliberately murdered Crow or grossly over-reacted to an imagined threat. The former have very clearly won the day...

The Marines: GWB vs. BHO...


I can't help but wonder how these Marines would react to BHO were they unconstrained by their decorum and military obligations...

Friday, March 6, 2009

Accountability...

Last December, a Marine fighter jet crash-landed in a San Diego neighborhood. The pilot ejected safely, but his jet plowed into a home where it killed four members of a single family. The surviving member of that family (the father, who was at work at the time) humbled all of us here with his immediate and very public forgiving of the pilot.

The Marines launched an investigation. Yesterday they made the results public, and those results surprised just about everybody – they called the crash “avoidable” and held those responsible fully accountable. Some careers are over, and a very clear message has been sent to other Marines. Peggy Noonan (WSJ) has the best writeup I've seen, including this summary:
This wasn't damage control, it was taking honest responsibility. And as such, in any modern American institution, it was stunning.
Stunning, indeed. And so refreshing, coming during the massive finger-pointing exercise accompanying the financial crisis.

I wish the Marines were in charge of that!

Tuesday, March 3, 2009

Credit Crisis, Explained...

Reader Peter M. (in Estonia!) sends along this excellent visualization about the causes of the current credit crisis:


The Crisis of Credit Visualized from Jonathan Jarvis on Vimeo.

Saturday, February 28, 2009

Quote of the Day...

From the insightful and funny Mark Steyn:
Last week, the president redefined the relationship between the citizen and the state, in ways that make America closer to Europe. If you’ve still got the Webster’s to hand, “closer to Europe” is a sociopolitical colloquialism meaning “much worse.”
Read the whole thing.

Friday, February 27, 2009

The Golden State? Not So Much, Anymore...

Many long-time residents of California (over 35 years for me) consider themselves very fortunate to live in this “Golden State”. But these days, many of us – for the very first time – are entertaining the possibility that we might leave. Why? For me, outrageously high taxes, intrusive regulation, and an increasingly succesful socialist takeover top the list. Others may have different lists. But the chart at right (from this study by Arthur Laffer and Stephen Moore) contains the sobering numbers...

The chart shows net internal immigration (positive) or emigration (negative). In other words, those states with larger positive numbers have U.S. residents moving into them from other states, and those states with larger negative numbers have residents moving out of them into other states.

And look where California is...

Monday, February 23, 2009

Remote Wireless Links...

Recently our little Lawson Valley was connected to the terrestrial Internet through some clever wireless technology, from a little company called SDWISP. This morning I read about some truly remote wireless linkups, in the small villages of Nepal (a map of these connected villages is at right). The web site for that Internet provider is here, and a related story here...

Ancient Greek Humor...

Interesting stuff. I'd never have guessed that humor would have such durability. An excerpt:
Pride of place in the Philogelos goes to the “egg-heads”, who are the subject of almost half the jokes for their literal-minded scholasticism (“An egg-head doctor was seeing a patient. ‘Doctor’, he said, ‘when I get up in the morning I feel dizzy for 20 minutes.’ ‘Get up 20 minutes later, then’”). After the “egg-heads”, various ethnic jokes come a close second. In a series of gags reminiscent of modern Irish or Polish jokes, the residents of three Greek towns – Abdera, Kyme and Sidon – are ridiculed for their “how many Abderites does it take to change a light bulb?” style of stupidity. Why these three places in particular, we have no idea. But their inhabitants are portrayed as being as literal-minded as the egg-heads, and even more obtuse. “An Abderite saw a eunuch talking to a woman and asked if she was his wife. When he replied that eunuchs can’t have wives, the Abderite asked, ‘So is she your daughter then?’” And there are many others on predictably similar lines.

Sunday, February 22, 2009

Geek Humor...

Via Brian Dunbar:
A SQL query walks into a bar. He sees 2 tables, walks over and asks “May I join you?”

Thursday, February 19, 2009

Taxes...

The cartoonists are catching on quickly to popular sentiment:













Wednesday, February 18, 2009

This Bud's for You...

From my mom:
A cowboy named Bud was overseeing his herd in a remote mountainous pasture in California when suddenly a brand-new BMW advanced out of a dust cloud towards him.

The driver, a young man in a Brioni suit, Gucci shoes, RayBan sunglasses and YSL tie, leans out the window and asks the cowboy, 'If I tell you exactly how many cows and calves you have in your herd, Will you give me a calf?'

Bud looks a t the man, obviously a yuppie, then looks at his peacefully grazing herd and calmly answers, 'Sure, Why not?'

The yuppie parks his car, whips out his Dell notebook computer, connects it to his Cingular RAZR V3 cell phone, and surfs to a NASA page on the Internet, where he calls up a GPS satellite to get an exact fix on his location which he then feeds to another NASA satellite that scans the area in an ultra-high-resolution photo.

The young man then opens the digital photo in Adobe Photoshop and exports it to an image processing facility in Hamburg , Germany

Within seconds, he receives an email on his Palm Pilot that the image has been processed and the data stored. He then accesses an MS-SQL database through an ODBC connected Excel spreadsheet with email on his Blackberry and, after a few minutes, receives a response.

Finally, he prints out a full-color, 150-page report on his hi-tech, miniaturized HP LaserJet printer and finally turns to the cowboy and says, 'You have exactly 1,586 cows and calves.'

'That's right. Well, I guess you can take one of my calves,' says Bud.

He watches the young man select one of the animals and looks on amused as the young man stuffs it into the trunk of his car.

Then the Bud says to the young man, 'Hey, if I can tell you exactly what your business is, will you give me back my calf?'

The young man thinks about it for a second and then says, 'Okay, why not?'

'You're a Congressman for the U.S. Government', says Bud.

'Wow! That's correct,' says the yuppie, 'but how did you guess that?'

'No guessing required.' answered the cowboy. 'You showed up here even though nobody called you; you want to get paid for an answer I already knew, to a question I never asked. You tried to show me how much smarter than me you are; and you don't know a thing about cows ... this is a herd of sheep.'

Now give me back my dog.
Heh!

Now when you're done laughing, just think what this Congressman is about to do with the $12,000 they just stole from us (each and every taxpayer) in the “stimulus bill”.

Feeling stimulated? Full of hopeyness and changitude?

I am. I'm feeling stimulated to vote for absolutely anyone who has never held elective office and who doesn't want it now. I'm full of hope that more than a few voters will feel the same way next election – at which point maybe we'll see some
real change. 'Cause the only change I'm seeing right now is the boldness of the thieves in Washington, who seem to be convinced that they can steal the food right off our plates and we'll still vote for them.

We won't, will we?

Lyons Peak Lookout...

Lyons Peak is a small but locally prominent peak just southeast of the town of Jamul (and just south of Lawson Valley, where I live). You can drive all the way around the peak: start at the intersection of State 94 and Lyons Valley Road. Drive south on 94 to the intersection with Honey Springs Road, where you take a left. Drive northeast on Honey Springs Road to the intersection with Lyons Valley Roade, where you take another left. Drive to the intersection with State 94 and you've done it.

On Lyons Peak is a fire lookout tower, easily seen from Honey Springs Road. This tower is no longer used, though the Forest Fire Lookout Association would like to change that. From their page on the Lyons Peak lookout:

Lyons Peak has hosted a fire lookout tower since 1913. The original tower was a 5x5 foot telephone booth-like structure.

The tower is located on a Cleveland National Forest 'Island' that surrounds the peak.

Access to the peak is currently limited to helicopter or law enforcement escort only due to a road access dispute with a private land owner.
We wish them good luck with this, both because we'd love to be able to visit the lookout and because this would allow access for UCSD researchers to maintain the cameras on the peak that give us such valuable information during a fire.

The Forest Fire Lookout Association folks were recently able to make an inspection of the Lyons Peak lookout. There's an interesting report, with photos, at the link.

Storm Total: 2.4 Inches...

Well, I'm pretty sure the storm is now actually over. We got an additional 0.3 inches of rain yesterday that we didn't expect, as the storm left the area.

On my drive home yesterday afternoon, Lawson Valley Road showed all the signs of heavy rain earlier in the day: gravel washes across the road, rock and mud falls along road cuts, and muddy rivulets down the sides of the road wherever there is a slope. The streams are running strongly, and the waters are starting to turn clear. All around Lawson Valley, there are many rocks covered with sheets of water: small springs running out over exposed rock faces, which we see every time we get enough rain to percolate down through the soil and cracked rock of our mountains. And all the mosses and lichens are handsomely green.

The wet chaparral can be quite beautiful...

Monday, February 16, 2009

Rain Update...

By special request from Bob C. We've had about 1.35 inches today, and it's still raining now. The graph at right tells the story (remember it's on GMT).

Debbie and I drove up into our local mountains today, along Boulder Creek Road and then back along Sunrise Highway. It's wet up there – I'll be they've had close to 3 inches...

Tuesday, February 10, 2009

Moon...

Reader Larry E., who's having a great deal of fun learning the elements of photography with his digital camera, sent in this photo of the moon yesterday.

We only caught glimpses of the moon yesterday ourselves; out where we live it was mostly socked in.

This morning it's completely clear, though...

$5.29

That's what a dozen eggs cost in the early '50s, in inflation-adjusted dollars. This is from an interesting comparison of where our money has gone over the years.

This is something that people tend to consistently miss. We see that a gallon of gas costs $2.15 (here in Jamul, anyhow), and we say to ourselves: Sheesh! I remember when it was just 25 cents a gallon! What's happened?

And we tell ourselves that everything costs more these days. What we forget is that we made much less money back then, and we spent a larger fraction of our income on necessities (food, medicine, etc.) than we do now. This is actually quite indisputable – there's overwhelming evidence that anyone can verify, and doing so is a very interesting exercise in economic reality.

The exercise I went through once upon a time involved music: how many minutes of my work did it take to buy a record album in 1970 vs. a CD album in 2000? Answer: about 70 minutes in 1970, vs. 10 minutes in 2000. Try this yourself! Virtually everything you can think of – including gas! – takes less of your working time to earn today than it did 30 or 40 years ago. Usually much less.

And yet it “feels” like it costs more now.

Strange are the ways of humans...

Storm Total: 2.86 Inches...

The graph tells the story. As I write this, the sky is completely clear and a nearly-full moon is brightly lighting the nightscape.

The wet nightscape.

Driving home yesterday afternoon, I passed through patches of driving rain, lots of gentle rain, and a few clear spots. At several places along the road, I spotted overflowing streams – most notably along State 94 just east of Steele Canyon.