Saturday, November 17, 2007

A Visit to Cuyamaca...

This past weekend, Debbie and I visited some places we're very familiar with: the west slope of Cuyamaca Mountain (along Boulder Creek Road), Engineer Road (along North Peak), and the Stonewall Mine area in Cuyamaca Rancho State Park. Much of these areas was burned over in the awful Cedar Fire of 2003, over four years ago. It's been tough for us to go back there since then, as the fires destroyed some of our favorite scenery in the area…

The toyon (
Heteromeles arbutifolia) at right was one of many we saw along Engineer Road. The toyon is a locally common chaparral plant; we have 100 or so specimens on the 25 or so acres surrounding our home. But here they were growing in a burnt-over forest, one of the first native plants (along with ceanothus) to come back after the fire. This would seem to make them a “fire pioneer” plant. The literature I could find on the web seems a bit contradictory on this point; some said that the seedlings were often seen after a fire, but others said that the plants wouldn't become established (and I'm not sure exactly what they mean by that) until there was a closed canopy overhead. But who cares, really – they were a spot of most unexpected beauty in the monochome tones of the burned areas…

The toyon is one of the two common chaparral plants in our area that stays reliably green, even through the droughts (the other is a sumac, commonly called “lemonade berry”). However, it is often quite hidden from view. In the area around our home, it's often found under live oaks, large manzanitas, or even very large ceanothus. This habit makes it an under-appreciated chaparral plant – I suspect many property owners around here don't even know they exist! Just a short walk from our house there is a particularly fine stand of toyon, under a live oak that's about 30 feet tall. But this stand is put to shame by the specimens we saw along Engineer Road.

We saw something else there that greatly cheered me: some pine seedlings, up to a couple feet tall. This is the very first time since the Cedar Fire that I have spotted conifer seedlings in the burned area, something that I found disheartening – so I was delighted to see these little guys! We saw some later in the park, as well. If I were to guess at density, I'd say it was between 20 and 40 seedlings per acre. That sounds very low to me, but perhaps there will be more in following years…

Once we got to the Stonewall Mine area, we had another pleasant surprise: deer. Again, this was the first time we'd spotted deer up here since the Cedar Fire. Their return means that the big predators (especially the mountain lion) will return as well, or perhaps they're already back. The scene at right, taken from a point close to the mine, is a classic autumn scene in the coastal California mountains. The thick grasses always turn a golden brown then, and the winds waft a distinctive smell, much like hay. We spotted the deer in a meadow just south of the one pictured, perhaps a half mile away…

I've always loved the visual textures of these dried grasses, whether as isolated plants or en masse. I find them especially beautiful when backlit, though it's very challenging to capture that high-contrast image in a photo.

Grasses such as these are, of course, amongst the very first pioneer plants after a fire. I don't know if the plants that come up first are from existing seed that survived the fire, or if new seed somehow makes it in. We saw luxurious grass (along with perennial wildflowers) in many burnt-over areas the first spring after the fire, just four or five months afterwards. The wildflowers don't stay in large numbers, unfortunately, but the grass does – in the many natural meadows, amongst rock outcroppings, and along road cuts. These luxurious grasses seem to need something that's available only at higher altitudes (more rainfall, I suspect), as we cannot grow them near our home. If we irrigated, we'd get bazillions of weeds, so I don't even try that…

Friday, November 16, 2007

Lakes Conference Call

Lakes Entertainment recently had a conference call to talk about their Q3 financial reports. The Jamul Indian Casino project was mentioned briefly a few times; these parts are excerpted from the transcript:
Next I will discuss our project with the Jamul Indian village. Lakes has an agreement for the development and financing of a casino resort operation with the Jamul Indian Village. The Jamul tribe has a six-acre reservation on which the casino is planned to be built. Lakes has also acquired approximately 100 acres of land contiguous to the six acres of the reservation land that could be used for the casino support facilities if the land is taken into trust. Lakes and the Jamul tribe have decided to move forward with the operating a casino based solely on class 2 electronic gaming devices. The agreement between Lakes and the Jamul tribe is currently being modified to reflect the new economics of the revised smaller casino plan which will not require a compact and will not be subject to approval by the state or NIGC. Planning is underway to redesign the casino to provide for approximately 1,000 class 2 gaming devices along with 20 class 2 table games. The site has been cleared of all residents and all structures have been demolished and removed. Soil drilling in preparation for the road construction has started. We and the tribe are currently evaluating the plan to determine when the casino construction will start and when the casino operations could begin.
...
Revenue from this license fee income decreased during third quarter of 2007 compared to the third quarter of 2006 as a result of the delivery of no episodes of the professional poker tour television series in the 2007 period, versus the delivery of nine episodes of the PPT in the third quarter of 2006 and the delivery of three episodes of season five of the world poker tour television series in the third quarter of 2007 versus the delivery of one episode of season five of the WPT television series in the 2006 period. Net unrealized losses on notes receivable were $600,000 for the third quarter of 2007, compared to net unrealized gains of $5.8 million for the third quarter of 2006. The net unrealized losses in the third quarter of 2007 related to unrealized gains on Lakes' notes receivable from the Shingle Springs Band and Miwok Indians in the amount of $1.2 million and unrealized losses of $1.8 million on the Lakes notes receivable from the Jamul Indian Village.

These notes receivable are adjusted to estimated fair value based upon the current status of the related tribal casino projects. The increase in fair value of the notes receivable from the Shingle Springs tribe relates primarily to continued progress on the construction of this project which is currently within budget and on schedule. The decrease in fair value of the notes receivable from the Jamul tribe relates primarily to an increase in the discount rate which resulted from a decrease in current estimated win per unit for this project.
...
TODD EILERS: Okay. And then, let's see, I guess with respect to the balance sheet, Tim, can you break down the notes receivables by project, or at least what Shingle Springs and Jamul were for the quarter, the market value?

TIM COPE: The long-term notes?

TODD EILERS: Yes.

TIM COPE: Jamul is approximately 24 million. Shingle Springs is approximately 52 million. And Iowa's is approximately 3 million.
...
JUSTIN SEBASTIANO: Okay. And, Tim, you had mentioned that you lowered the discount rate. What are you using now for the notes receivable from the Jamul Tribe? It was 15.75% I think previously?

TIM COPE: Yes, actually increased it.

JUSTIN SEBASTIANO: Increased it, I'm sorry, right.

TIM COPE: I think it's more in the 17% range now. You understand we get this from a third-party valuation firm.
...
I have publicly stated for the last several years, and I'll say it on this phone call, that Lakes Gaming, when we become a cash flow machine in the 2009 period and out, certainly do not expect to reinvest our funds in Indian gaming. Indian gaming is certainly our major core business. We're very good at it, and we will be in it for a long time. After all, Shingle Springs doesn't open for a year and then we have a seven-year contract, so that's eight years. Jamul will keep us in there for another year after that, so even without renewals we will be a major force in Indian gaming working with our Tribes and managing those casinos for the next 10 years. That being said, as we accumulate the cash from these operations, as you know, the majority of these operations took us seven or eight years from the time we signed with the Tribe, and we invested well over $150 million. Most of the Indian opportunities out there today are of a similar or worse nature.
...
CHRIS KRUEGER: Hi. I missed a little bit of the call but on the time frame for a couple of your future projects, I heard you mention on the Jamul that the site is cleared, there's some prep work beginning and that you're evaluating the plan right now. Does that mean -- I know last quarter I think you indicated you felt the construction would begin in the first quarter of '08 and open 12 months later. Is that more maybe like the first half of '08 now or how would we look at that?

TIM COPE: Actually, the last quarter I think we said the same thing we're saying this quarter. We're continuing to work with the tribe to evaluate when we can start construction on the casino. Casino construction there will be about a 16-month, 18-month build because of the nature of the site itself. So I think the issue right now is when can we actually start the construction. And as you mentioned, we have started drilling on the road work there, which is the first piece of the project to get the road completed, so we can start breaking in the construction equipment to do the building. So we're progressing on the road work right now, and then I think it's going to be again subject to discussions with the tribe and after the first of the year when we feel we can start the casino construction.

CHRIS KRUEGER: The fires that happened out there is there any impact from that?

TIM COPE: We and the Tribe I would say were quite fortunate in that regard. All the buildings had already been removed from the reservation, so although there was some fire that came very close and on the site there's actually a -- it backs up to a church, and that church was protected from the fire so there really was no physical damage occurred.
...
JUSTIN SEBASTIANO: Just a quick follow-up. Tim, could you just run through how you're getting paid out on Jamul? From what I have, I see you have a $15 million up-front flat fee from development services, 15 million payable evenly over five years for construction services, and then 50 million payable evenly over 10 years for financing services, is this correct?

TIM COPE: Currently the agreement is all fees that we earn are earned prior to the project opening based on, as you mentioned, either oversight of construction, oversight of the development, or for providing the financing. All those fees are then spread out over the life of a 10-year contract.

JUSTIN SEBASTIANO: Okay. So -- oh, so the development service is not a $15 million up-front flat fee?

TIM COPE: No, and there's nothing paid up-front. Everything is earned up-front.

JUSTIN SEBASTIANO: Understood. So they're all paid out evenly over 10 years?

TIM COPE: That's the current plan.

JUSTIN SEBASTIANO: So under the current plan then, you're going to get paid out on the amounts -- the $80 million, I guess, regardless of what the casino does. Is that correct then?

TIM COPE: Well, no, only if it's successful. Again, it's paid out -- they can't pay us if they don't have the money, right.

JUSTIN SEBASTIANO: Well, what's considered successful? Then they just have to cover -- do they have to hit a certain threshold, and then pay you out when they hit?

TIM COPE: There's no thresholds this particular arrangement. Just cash flow.

JUSTIN SEBASTIANO: Okay. So let's say you are due $8 million in year one. If they net $8 million then you get it all, and the Tribe gets 0?

LYLE BERMAN: In theory that would be correct. In practicality, probably not.

JUSTIN SEBASTIANO: I just wanted to make sure that there is no threshold and that you guys will get paid out.

LYLE BERMAN: No threshold whatsoever.
There are some interesting nuggets of information in there, but nothing particularly surprising. It certainly doesn't sound like Lakes has written Jamul off, darn it…

Thursday, November 15, 2007

Three Stories...

Mike D. passes these along. I was able to verify the first one (via the indispensable Snopes); the other two I'm not sure of:
When in England at a fairly large conference, Colin Powell was asked by the Archbishop of Canterbury if our plans for Iraq were just an example of 'empire building' by George Bush.

He answered by saying, "Over the years, the United States has sent many of its fine young men and women into great peril to fight for freedom beyond our borders. The only amount of land we have ever asked for in return is enough to bury those that did not return."

---------------

Then there was a conference in France where a number of international engineers were taking part, including French and American. During a break one of the French engineers came back into the room saying "Have you heard the latest dumb stunt Bush has done? He has sent an aircraft carrier to Indonesia to help the tsunami victims. What does he intend to do, bomb them?"

A Boeing engineer stood up and replied quietly: "Our carriers have three hospitals on board that can treat several hundred people; they are nuclear powered and can supply emergency electrical power to shore facilities; they have three cafeterias with the capacity to feed 3,000 people three meals a day, they can produce several thousand gallons of fresh water from sea water each day, and they carry half a dozen
helicopters for use in transporting victims and injured to and from their flight deck. We have eleven such ships; how many does France have?"

--------------------

A U.S. Navy Admiral was attending a naval conference that included Admirals from the U.S., English, Canadian, Australian and French Navies. At a cocktail reception, he found himself standing with a large group of officers that included personnel from most of those countries. Everyone was chatting away in English as they sipped their drinks but a French admiral suddenly complained that, 'whereas Europeans learn many languages, Americans learn only English.' He then asked, 'Why is it that we always have to speak English in these conferences rather than speaking French?'

Without hesitating, the American Admiral replied 'Maybe it's because the Brits, Canadians, Aussies and Americans arranged it so you wouldn't have to speak German.
That last story strikes home a bit for me. I've traveled a little bit in France, on weekends wrested from business trips. Being the odd sort that I am, I spent almost no time in the famous places (especially Paris!); instead, I drove about all over the countryside. Except for one locale, the attitude displayed by the French admiral in that story was completely consistent with what I ran into. Most of my interactions with the French, even in the countryside, were markedly less friendly than many other places that I've traveled.

Except for Normandy, that is. There I met quite a few people who still remember – and appreciate – what the Allies did on D-Day and afterward. Several times while visiting graveyards or monuments, locals approached me, asked if I was American, and then (upon getting a “yes”) engaged me in pleasant conversation. The older folks were happy to share their memories. I'm not sure what happened to make the rest of France generally so snooty, but whatever it is seems to have passed Normandy by…

Hillary and Margaret...

Peggy Noonan's column from last week compares Hillary Clinton and Margaret Thatcher. You won't be surprised which of them comes out on top in her estimation, but her observations, as always, are well worth reading. Here's her lead:

The story as I was told it is that in the early years of her prime ministership, Margaret Thatcher held a meeting with her aides and staff, all of whom were dominated by her, even awed. When it was over she invited her cabinet chiefs to join her at dinner in a nearby restaurant. They went, arrayed themselves around the table, jockeyed for her attention. A young waiter came and asked if they'd like to hear the specials.

Mrs. Thatcher said, "I will have beef."

Yes, said the waiter. "And the vegetables?"

"They will have beef too."

No matter how I twist my brain, I can't imagine that story working with Hillary substituted for the formidable Mrs. Thatcher…

Hillary and Elliot...

Hillary Clinton, on Governor Elliot Spitzer's plan to give New York driver's licenses to illegal aliens in the Empire State:
“I didn’t say he shouldn’t do it, nor that he should,” said Sen. Clinton, “I only said I recognize that whatever he does I can understand because George Bush makes us all do irrational things.”
She didn't really say that, but Scott Ott (of Scrappleface) has done his usual wonderful parody. In this case, he's reduced days and paragraphs of flip-flopping, triangulating, obfuscating, and mealy-mouthing to just a few words that sound exactly like her…

Potentially and Realistically...

Simi L. passes along this story (warning: put your coffee down first):
A young boy went up to his father and asked him, "Dad, what is the difference between 'potentially' and 'realistically'?"

The father thought for a moment, then answered, "Go ask your mother if she would sleep with Brad Pitt for a million dollars. Then ask your sister if she would sleep with Brad Pitt for a million dollars, and then, ask your brother if he'd sleep with Brad Pitt for a million dollars. Come back and tell me what you learn from that."

So the boy went to his mother and asked, "Would you sleep with Brad Pitt for a million dollars?"

The mother replied, "Of course, I would! We could really use that money to fix up the house and send you kids to a great university!"

The boy then went to his sister and asked, "Would you sleep with Brad Pitt for a million dollars?"

The girl replied, "Oh good heavens! I LOVE Brad Pitt and I would sleep with him in a heartbeat. Are you nuts?"

The boy then went to his brother and asked, "Would you sleep with Brad Pitt for a million dollars?"

"Of course," the brother replied. "Do you know how much a million bucks would buy?"

The boy pondered the answers for awhile and then went back to his dad. His father asked him, "Did you find out the difference between 'potentially' and 'realistically'"?

The boy replied: "Yes. 'Potentially' you and I are sitting on three million dollars, but 'realistically,' we're living with two hookers and a future congressman."
That has just enough truth about the state of our Congress to be really funny.

But sad, too, if you think about it…

Wednesday, November 14, 2007

Earthrise

The Japanese robotic lunar explorer Kaguya has been in a 100 km high lunar orbit for about a month, and its instrument set is operating. Amongst those instruments is an HD video camera, which captured the image at right.

For those of us old enough to remember, this is evocative of the iconic earthrise image from Apollo 8, the first manned mission to reach the vicinity of the moon.

The Japanese space program – tiny by comparison with NASA – has been beset by technical difficulties, political wrangling, and funding challenges. Nevertheless, they have accomplished a lot of good science, entirely with robotic missions, and Kaguya appears to be on track to do more of the same…

Five Lessons...

From Mike D.:
1. The Cleaning Lady

During my second month of college, our professor gave us a pop quiz. I was a conscientious student and had breezed through the questions until I read the last one:

"What is the first name of the woman who cleans the school?"

Surely this was some kind of joke. I had seen the cleaning woman several times. She was tall, dark-haired and in her 50's, but how would I know her name?

I handed in my paper, leaving the last question blank. Just before class ended, one student asked if the last question would count toward our quiz grade.

"Absolutely, " said the professor. "In your careers, you will meet many people. All are significant. They deserve your attention and care, even if all you do is smile and say "hello."

I've never forgotten that lesson. I also learned her name was Dorothy.

2. Pickup in the Rain

(Editor's note: Snopes says this story is false, but the lesson is still relevant.)

One night, at 11:30 p.m., an older African American woman was standing on the side of an Alabama highway trying to endure a lashing rain storm. Her car had broken down and she desperately needed a ride. Soaking wet, she decided to flag down the next car. A young white man stopped to help her, generally unheard of in those conflict-filled 1960's. The man took her to safety, helped her get assistance and put her into a taxicab.

She seemed to be in a big hurry, but wrote down his address and thanked him. Seven days went by and a knock came on the man's door. To his surprise, a giant console color TV was delivered to his home. A special note was attached.

It read:

"Thank you so much for assisting me on the highway the other night. The rain drenched not only my clothes, but also my spirits. Then you came along. Because of you, I was able to make it to my dying husband's bedside just before he passed away... God bless you for helping me and unselfishly serving others."

Sincerely,
Mrs. Nat King Cole.

3. Always remember those who serve.

In the days when an ice cream sundae cost much less, a 10-year-old boy entered a hotel coffee shop and sat at a table. A waitress put a glass of water in front of him.

"How much is an ice cream sundae?" he asked.

"Fifty cents," replied the waitress.

The little boy pulled is hand out of his pocket and studied the coins in it.

"Well, how much is a plain dish of ice cream?" he inquired.

By now more people were waiting for a table and the waitress was growing impatient.

" Thirty-five cents," she brusquely replied.

The little boy again counted his coins.

"I'll have the plain ice cream," he said.

The waitress brought the ice cream, put the bill on the table and walked away The boy finished the ice cream, paid the cashier and left. When the waitress came back, she began to cry as she wiped down the table. There, placed neatly beside the empty dish, were two nickels and five pennies..

You see, he couldn't have the sundae, because he had to have enough left to leave her a tip.

4. The obstacle in Our Path

In ancient times, a King had a boulder placed on a roadway. Then he hid himself and watched to see if anyone would remove the huge rock. Some of the king's wealthiest merchants and courtiers came by and simply walked around it. Many loudly blamed the King for not keeping the roads clear, but none did anything about getting the stone out of the way.

Then a peasant came along carrying a load of vegetables. Upon approaching the boulder, the peasant laid down his burden and tried to move the stone to the side of the road. After much pushing and straining, he finally succeeded. After the peasant picked up his load of vegetables, he noticed a purse lying in the road where the boulder had been. The purse contained many gold coins and a note from the King indicating that the gold was for the person who removed the boulder from the roadway. The peasant learned what many of us never understand!

Every obstacle presents an opportunity to improve our condition.

5. Giving When it Counts

Many years ago, when I worked as a volunteer at a hospital, I got to know a little girl named Liz who was suffering from a rare & serious disease. Her only chance of recovery appeared to be a blood transfusion from her 5-year old brother, who had miraculously survived the same disease and had developed the antibodies needed to combat the illness. The doctor explained the situation to her little brother, and asked the little boy if he would be willing to give his blood to his sister.

I saw him hesitate for only a moment before taking a deep breath and saying, "Yes I'll do it if it will save her." As the transfusion progressed, he lay in bed next to his sister and smiled, as we all did, seeing the color returning to her cheek. Then his face grew pale and his smile faded.

He looked up at the doctor and asked with a trembling voice, "Will I start to die right away?"

Being young, the little boy had misunderstood the doctor; he thought he was going to have to give his sister all of his blood in order to save her.
Some Wednesday morning ponders for you... Thanks, Mike.

Monday, November 12, 2007

Quote of the Day

By Wretchard, in a comment to this post at the Belmont Club:
It's interesting to reflect, on Veterans Day, that all bravery can ever buy is time. What we do with that gift of time, so dearly purchased, is always what momentary victory is all about. It's a chance, nothing more.
The more I think about that sentence, the more profound it seems.

All that bravery by the Allied soldiers that bought victory in World War II bought such a chance – one that paid off immensely.

No less bravery was demonstrated by American soldiers in the Vietnam war, but the chance it bought was largely squandered (and the job left unfinished).

What will we do with the chance that our troops (and those of our coalition partners) are in the process of buying in Iraq?

Here's What Happens...

...when you and your friends hand your camera to someone and ask him to take your picture.

Shopping Sprees...

10News.com is reporting that kids in the Jamul area from families who lost their homes in the Harris fire can sign up for a $200 shopping spree.

Sunday, November 11, 2007

Honor A Soldier...

Upate:

Reader Mike W. reports that this is a fake, and passes along the Snopes page to prove it. Looks like I was fooled too – I found the reference on several news sites, and therefore thought it was real. Note to self: always check the indispensable Snopes!

Read the Snopes article to see how you really can send a small gift to an anonymous soldier – but you can't send cards, and the reason is related to security.


Original Post:

My mother found this somewhere, and I verified it. What a great idea!
When you are making out your Christmas card list this year, please
include the following:

A Recovering American soldier
c/o Walter Reed Army Medical Center
6900 Georgia Avenue,NW
Washington,D.C. 20307-5001
This is going on our Christmas card list – and we're going to send several cards. I hope it will go on yours, too.

Thanks, mom...

Friday, November 9, 2007

Quote of the Day

I heard this in a radio advertisement on my way to work today. The ad was placed by the California Teacher's Association (CTA), and included this statement:
This law forces us to teach to the test.
As if that were a bad thing! The premise of the ad is that the tests required by the No Child Left Behind Act – the ones that actually measure the scholastic achievement of our school kids – force the teachers to spend time teaching that stuff instead of whatever it is that they would do otherwise (say, inculcation in Muslim culture or leftist ideology).

I kid you not – that's exactly what the ad says.

Talk about missing the point!

I believe our public schools have reached the point where the rot is unrecoverable. The only hope for reform is to close them, and let the private sector take over; let parents choose where to spend their education dollars.

Not that that's likely to happen. But I can dream, can't I?

High-Tech Warehouse...

Here's a fascinating story (if you're a geeky type) about a radical new design for warehouses, enabled by very smart robotics. The story likens the design to random access memory (the RAM of your computer), but I think a closer analogy would be a disk cache.

The graphic (above right) is a schematic of shelving units, color-coded for how frequently the items on them sell (red most frequently, violet least frequently). The entire system self-adapts to the changing sales rates of the goods on each shelf. This is exactly the behavior of a LRU (least recently used) disk cache.

This is a great example of modern technology penetrating the most mundane of industries. Right now (as usual) it's only cost-effective at very large scales; in a few years the costs will come down and you'll see this technology in even small warehouses...

Another Skeptic...

Another professional meterologist who is skeptical of global warming: John Coleman, founder of The Weather Channel:
It is the greatest scam in history. I am amazed, appalled and highly offended by it. Global Warming; It is a SCAM.

Some dastardly scientists with environmental and political motives manipulated long term scientific data back in the late 1990's to create an allusion of rapid global warming. Other scientists of the same environmental wacko type jumped into the circle to support and broaden the "research" to further enhance the totally slanted, bogus global warming claims. Their friends in government steered huge research grants their way to keep the movement going. Soon they claimed to be a consensus.

Environmental extremist, notable politicians among them then teamed up with movie, media and other liberal, environmentalist journalists to create this wild "scientific" scenario of the civilization threatening environmental consequences from Global Warming unless we adhere to their radical agenda.

Now their ridicules manipulated science has been accepted as fact and become a cornerstone issue for CNN, CBS, NBC, the Democratic Political Party, the Governor of California, school teachers and, in many cases, well informed but very gullible environmental conscientious citizens. Only one reporter at ABC has been allowed to counter the Global Warming frenzy with one 15 minutes documentary segment.
You can read John's entire paper here, and his blog here.

Thursday, November 8, 2007

Day-By-Day and Yon...

Check out today's Day-by-Day cartoon: John Muir (the cartoonist) comments on the moving photograph by Michael Yon, showing Iraqis of several faiths working together to put a cross on top of a rebuilt Christian church.

If you're reading this on some day other than November 8, 2007, then click on the link above to see what I'm talking about.

x86 Math Bug...

The implementation of sin() and cos() on the Intel x86 platform has an interesting bug:
For many years, the JDK on x86 platforms has used the hardware fsin/fcos x87 instructions in the range [-pi/4, pi/4], a range which encompasses about half of all representable floating-point values. Therefore, in that range the performance of the JDK's transcendental functions should be nearly the same as the performance of the transcendental functions in C, C++, etc. that are using those same fsin/fcos instructions. Benchmarks which focus on testing the trig performance of large values, such as almabench, present a skewed portrait of Java's trigonometric performance. The next question is why don't we just use fsin/fcos over the entire floating-point range? The simple answer is that fsin/fcos can deliver answers that are arbitrarily wrong for the most straightforward way of measuring error in the result.
I'd never heard about this until I read this post on James Gosling's blog. On the native, uncorrected platform, the error can amount to 5 or 6 significant digits – most likely even producing results with the wrong sign!

Java programmers need not fear – the JVM fixes the problem (read the post to see how), but the fix is computationally intensive and reduces performance for angles outside the range of -pi/4 to pi/4 (in radians). Slow, but accurate (and predictable), as opposed to fast, but randomly inaccurate...

Jamulian

From the Union-Tribune:
SAN DIEGO – Authorities released the name Wednesday of an 18-year-old college student killed when the car he was driving crashed off an East County freeway at high speed, possibly as the youth was racing another motorist.

Devan Caddell of Jamul lost control of the 2001 Acura Integra after cutting in front of a white Ford Mustang on State Route 94 in La Mesa shortly after noon Tuesday, according to the California Highway Patrol and county Medical Examiner's Office.

The westbound Acura, which was traveling at 100 mph or faster, skidded off the right-hand side of the roadway near 69th Street, then crashed through a chain-link fence and smashed into a large tree behind a home, CHP public affairs Officer Brian Pennings said.

The impact uprooted the tree, tore the sedan apart and sent Caddell, a student at Mesa College, tumbling into the residential yard. He came to rest near a children's swing set and died at the scene.

The driver of the Mustang – who, according to witnesses, appeared to have been racing Caddell just prior to the crash – did not stop and has not been identified, Pennings said.

I don't know anything else about this senseless death. If any of you know more, please leave comments to let the rest of us know...

Less Profit...

Lakes Entertainment, the investor behind the Jamul Indian Casino project, just issued their quarterly report. It contains these statements related to the casino:

Net unrealized gains and (losses) on notes receivable were ($0.6) million and $5.8 million for the third quarters of 2007 and 2006, respectively. The net unrealized losses in the third quarter of 2007 related to unrealized gains on Lakes notes receivable from the Shingle Springs Band of Miwok Indians (Shingle Springs Tribe) in the amount of $1.2 million and unrealized losses of $1.8 million on the Lakes notes receivable from the Jamul Indian Village (Jamul Tribe). These notes receivable are adjusted to estimated fair value based upon the current status of the related tribal casino projects. The increase in fair value of the notes receivable from the Shingle Springs Tribe relates primarily to continued progress on the construction of this project, which is currently within budget and on schedule. The decrease in fair value of the notes receivable from the Jamul Tribe relates primarily to an increase in the discount rate which resulted from a decrease in current estimated win per unit for this project.

Net unrealized gains of $5.8 million during the third quarter of 2006 included $2.6 million related to the adjustment to fair value of notes receivable from the Shingle Springs Tribe due to favorable events occurring during the third quarter of 2006. The remainder of the net unrealized gains during the three months ended October 1, 2006, related primarily to increases in fair value of notes receivable from the Jamul Tribe and the Pokagon Band.

Summarized in English: the casino project isn't going to be as profitable as they originally thought. Here's hoping that trend continues, to the point where everybody just loses interest...

Wednesday, November 7, 2007

Magic Moments...

The photo at right is one of dozens from a collection of photos taken at exactly the right moment.

Imagine, if you can, being that fish… Is that an “Oh, s--t!” moment or what?

Now imagine being the bear. Self-serving sushi!

Tuesday, November 6, 2007

Resources for Rebuilding...

I heard about this event (San Diego Rebuilds) on the radio, and it sounds very useful -- especially the expertise and advice that will be available. It's a one-day affair in Escondido, but I suspect that if you're rebuilding, it would be well worth your time to attend:

Here is why this event is so important


Lessons learned during the Cedar Fire

Many fire victims were unfamiliar and unprepared to deal with the rebuilding process. Many became easy prey for unscrupulous, sleazy contractors. It was well documented that several were “revictimized” at the hands of these crooks; making absurdly low estimates, taking large deposits and then disappearing, poor workmanship, delays, etc. Others were stalled in the bureaucracy of the city’s building departments costing them precious time and money from their insurance settlements. Much of this aggravation could have been prevented with some help.

It is our intent to get all the players in one room— A one-stop shop if you will, where the 2007 victims can come and get honest assistance and opportunities to meet local building officials, licensing board, attorneys, tax and lending professionals, verified (licensed, insurance, comp, bonded) contractors, architects, estimators and other suppliers.
The organizer of this event was being interviewed by Roger Hedgecock (who is himself involved in the event to some extent). It sounds like this is completely a volunteer effort -- there is no cost to this event (either for fire victims or for the contractors and architects, etc.), so this is not an attempt to make some money from our neighbor's pain. From the interview, I gathered that the main goal of this event was to make it easy for people rebuilding to get all of the information they need, and (perhaps especially) to check out the vendors present so you know they are not going to rip you off.

Cross-posted from Jamul Fire Help.

Cow Rescue...

A cow in a culvert, somewhere near Jamul (along 94). Rescued by the San Diego Human Society…
JAMUL, Calif. -- Thanks to a specialty rescue crew and some beefy equipment, Violet the cow is no longer stuck livestock.

The brown-and-white bovine, who had wandered away from her owners' Jamul home overnight, got spooked, bolted and slipped into a concrete culvert when a highway patrol officer approached her alongside state Route 94 about 9:30 a.m. Monday, according to the San Diego Humane Society.

It took a volunteer crisis team that works with the animal-welfare agency about two hours to hook the roughly 1,700-pound cow to a harness rig and haul her out of the ditch with a crane, said Candice Ely of the SDHS.


A veterinarian then looked her over and determined that she was unscathed by her misadventure, Eley said.

Violet normally is pastured in Campo, but her owners had brought her to their rural home so they could care for an eye infection she had developed, Eley added.

Monday, November 5, 2007

Clean Cell Phone...

I just remembered a funny little story from our evacuation two weeks ago, during the fires. We drove from our home in Jamul to a friend's house in Chula Vista, Debbie in my pickup and me in our RV. We talked to each other during the drive via our cell phones – so I knew I had remembered to bring mine. But...shortly after we arrived at our friend's home, my cell phone disappeared. I wrote it off in my mind as a trivial cost considering what we were doing, and didn't worry about it.

But a couple of days later, Debbie came in from our friend's garage, laughing, and holding my cell phone. It was dripping wet and covered with soapy spots – she had just fished it out of the washing machine. Apparently I left the thing in my pocket, and into the laundry it went.

It looked completely hopeless, but just for form's sake I took it apart, rinsed it out, and set it in a sunny window to warm up and dry out. The next day I plugged it in, and to my surprise the “charging” indicator showed up on the screen – a substantial amount of the phone has to be functional for that to happen. After it charged for a while, I turned it on – and it worked! Better than ever, actually – the keyboard used to have some sticky keys, but now they all worked perfectly.

My phone is a cheap, bottom-of-the-line Nokia that I paid $29 for at Wal-Mart. Something tells me that if we had laundered my wife's feature-laden, $299 cell phone, the results would not have been as happy…

The Singing Revolution...

My long-time readers know that I have a special interest in the tiny country of Estonia. Because two companies I worked for had software development teams there (in the main city, Tallinn), I visited there many times from 1994 to 2005. I've traveled extensively throughout the country and made many friends there. There are many things I cherish about Estonia, but high on the list is its recent history, beginning with the bloodless revolution that won the country's freedom from the Soviet Union in 1991. This revolution is called "The Singing Revolution", because of the important role that music – and specifically singing – played in it. I've read several books about it, and watched two documentary films. I've also learned a lot about it from several people I know who actually participated in it.

Now there's a movie about it. I only learned of this movie this morning, from this column by Brent Bozell on Yahoo News. A teaser:

How many of us know that Estonia, one of the smallest countries on the face of this earth, is responsible for one of the most extraordinary, and certainly the most unique, revolutions in modern history? How many of us know that this tiny Baltic nation defeated the Soviet Union — with a song? This is not meant as hyperbole. It is literal truth.

One of the most fascinating documentaries you will ever watch is about to make its debut around the country. Make a note of it: "The Singing Revolution." Go to the Website singingrevolution.com to learn when and where in your city it will air. Should you miss that opportunity, make it a point to rent the DVD the moment it hits the stores.

Some documentaries entertain. Some educate. "The Singing Revolution" will bring you to your feet, cheering. It is the quintessential celebration of the human spirit.

The film's web site is here. I know nothing more than what is in the column and web site linked above – but if this film comes to San Diego, I will go see it. I haven't been to a theater for something like 10 years, and thought I was never going to go again – but I'd make an exception for this movie…

Naturally, there's a clip on YouTube:


Saturday, November 3, 2007

Peaceful Sunset...

This was the view looking west from Lyons Peak just a few minutes ago. Serene, beautiful, peaceful...

And not necessarily expected. Up until a few hours ago, the national weather service was forecasting a mild Santa Ana for today and early tomorrow – enough to cause the Governator to order a full alert for all the fire-fighting services, and to pre-position equipment in San Diego County (and in other Southern California areas).

But in the end, we got no winds today. It was dry, warm, and calm – a very pleasant day, actually.

This is one time when I'm quite happy that the weatherman got it wrong!

Cross-Posting???

I seem to have confused some of my readers with the little note I put at the bottom of one of my posts this morning, saying Cross-Posted from Jamul Fire Help – several of you wrote to ask me what the heck that meant. So let me explain in a little more detail…

The folks who run the Jamul Fire Help website were kind enough to ask me to post on their blog occasionally. They're trying to raise money (and otherwise help) for the Jamul victims of the recent fires. They asked if I'd help out a little by posting on their blog, and of course I agreed. When the topic makes sense for both my blog and theirs, I'll publish the same post in both places – that's what “cross-posting”…

Tomato Soup...

Just before the fires last week, my parents shipped two large boxes of New Jersey tomatoes to me – the last of the season. When the fires closed the Post Office (and we were evacuated), the delivery that should have been made last Tuesday or Wednesday was delayed until this Tuesday – an entire week late.

My mother was sure that the content of the boxes would have putrified by then, but when Debbie picked up the boxes, she discovered that most of the tomatoes were fine. In fact, most of them weren't even completely ripe yet. So I set them aside for a few days to let them fully ripen. The few that ripened earliest disappeared into a few evening snacks of tomato salads and tomato sandwiches. Lovely things, they were.

But they don't hold a candle to what I did with the remaining 16 dead-ripe New Jersey tomatoes today: I made a large batch of Boston-style cream of tomato soup. Debbie, our best friend Jim, and I gorged ourselves with two gigantic bowls of this delectable concoction; it was our dinner tonight. The recipe was simple enough – I'd never made this particular style before, but there wasn't much that could go wrong. The base of the soup is a puree of the tomatoes (with some carrots and onions) and a little whipping cream for texture and body. The tomato flavor is enhanced with a strong component of fresh thyme, plus parsely and fresh-ground pepper. The result was right up there with the very best tomato soups I've ever had.

I made about six quarts of soup; there is only about a pint left. All three of us are sloshing as we walk. But we have smiles on our faces…that soup was good enough to make us wonder if it might not be a controlled substance!

Preparing for the Next One...

One thing we can be certain of, unfortunately, is that wildfires will attack our community again. Some areas (such as Lawson Valley, where I live) have 35 years or more of chaparral fuel build-up. While a fire can start almost anywhere, areas with large amounts of fuel upwind of them have the highest risks during a Santa Ana – any fire upwind of such areas will move quickly toward them.

The general direction of the Santa Ana winds is from the northeast (blowing toward the southwest). However, local geological features (hills, canyons, etc.) can modify this, so the direction could be different in your immediate neighborhood – and those same features can also affect the intensity of the winds. The Pine Valley canyon is a good example of a geological feature that intensifies the wind; the I-8 bridge there is notorious for its fierce crosswinds during a Santa Ana.

It can be very instructive to see how much fuel is left near your home, and especially to the northeast of your home. The map at right, above (click to expand it) shows the fire history in our area for the past 18 years, since 1990. The blue hatched areas are where the Harris Fire burned last week. The pink hatched areas are where fires burned since 2000. The green hatched areas show fires that occurred in the 1990s. The areas that have no hatching (plain gray) have had no fires since 1990.

You’ll note that some areas have burned multiple times – it only takes a few years after a fire for enough fuel to regrow to be able to sustain a fire. However, fires in those more recently-burned areas are much less intense, for the simple reason there is less fuel there. In general, the longer it has been since an area has burned, the more difficult it is to fight a fire there. From the perspective of future risk, it’s definitely better to have recently burned areas upwind of you.

If you examine the map carefully, you’ll note that there’s a large area unburned since 1990 stretching from roughly the Descanso area southwest to the town of Jamul. Those of us living in that area should recognize the risk we face from fires starting during a Santa Ana, especially severe Santa Anas such as the one we had last week. There is a mild Santa Ana forecast for tomorrow and Sunday; even this elevates our risk considerably. If you live in this area that hasn’t been burned for a long time, be especially watchful this weekend and during any other Santa Anas we have.

An excellent resource that allows anyone in our area to watch for fires are the cameras on Lyons Peak. These are operated by HPWREN, and they update every two minutes. You can get the raw feeds directly from this page, or get them processed (with location annotations and automatic updating) from this page. Either way, keeping an eye on these cameras will give you the earliest possible warning of any fires breaking out, and exactly where they are located.

Cross-posted from Jamul Fire Help

Monster Caterpillar...

As I was watering our potted patio plants this morning, I noticed that our potato tree (Solanum paraguayensis) had lost quite a few leaves. I looked a little closer, and spotted this enormous green caterpillar on its sparse branches. It was still early, just after sunrise, and cold – so the caterpillar was motionless. All stretched out, it would be about 3 inches (8 cm) long; about the size of one of my fingers.

With a little research on the web, I'm pretty sure that this is the caterpillar of some Sphinx moth (there are many species). I grabbed this photos quickly, as I suspected that when it warmed up it would start moving about.

And that's exactly what it did – by the time I got these photos loaded into my computer, the temperature had risen substantially, and the caterpillar had turned into an amazing eating machine. I watched it methodically strip one small branch of my poor potato tree in about 60 seconds. I don't think anything would have been left of my potato tree after a few hours of work by this guy!

So I picked it up and moved it over to the 6' post that holds our bird feeders up, and hoped it would feed a family of birds for a few days. A couple hours later, it was still there, wandering about looking for something green to masticate. A couple of sparrows were perched nearby, checking it out – so I suspect it's life expectancy is quite low…

Friday, November 2, 2007

Military vs. The Fires...

I found these photos (at StrategyPage) of the U.S. military aircraft helping fight last week's fires.

The top photo shows an Air Force C-130 Hercules dumping 3,000 gallons of fire retardant on the Poomacha Fire. This is the view from the open bay of the plane, looking down at the two nozzles as they dump the fire retardant.

The Poomacha Fire is still burning, and is still not 100% contained. The last update I read said that air assets were still on the job, 10 days after the fire started. The main challenge is that the fire is burning in some quite remote and inaccessible areas, especially on the north and northeast flanks of Mt. Palomar.

The bottom photo shows a Navy MH-60S Seahawk about to fill its bucket. I believe the photo is showing it over Sweetwater Reservoir, with Dictionary Hill and Spring Valley in the background. If I'm correct, then it would have been fighting the Harris Fire, near our home.

More photos and a bit of the story can be found here.

Paul Tibbets, RIP...

Another well-known member of the Greatest Generation has died, at 92. Brigadier General Paul W. Tibbets was the pilot of the B-29 Enola Gay when it dropped the first atomic bomb used in anger on Hiroshima, Japan, on August 6, 1945.

I had the great honor to meet General Tibbets in the mid-1990s. He was a featured guest at an airshow I attended, and at one point he was at a B-29 exhibit. I spoke with him there very briefly; I had the chance to tell him that I had greatly enjoyed his book (The Flight of the Enola Gay), and that I was very glad that he had been there to fly the Enola Gay for that mission. I don't remember what he said in response, but I do remember the appreciative smile, and a firm handshake.

Rest in peace, General. Your country remains proud of its soldiers, anti-military wackos and the lamestream media notwithstanding.

There's a locked-down Wikipedia article on General Tibbets (locked down because anti-military kooks persistently edited the article to add defamatory and inflammatory remarks).

Obituaries from major newspapers here, here, here, and here.

Oops...

The List Universe has a great list of the Top 30 Failed Technology Predictions. Here are the first 5, just to give you a taste.

1. “There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home.” — Ken Olson, president, chairman and founder of Digital Equipment Corp. (DEC), maker of big business mainframe computers, arguing against the PC in 1977.

2. “We will never make a 32 bit operating system.” — Bill Gates

3. “Lee DeForest has said in many newspapers and over his signature that it would be possible to transmit the human voice across the Atlantic before many years. Based on these absurd and deliberately misleading statements, the misguided public … has been persuaded to purchase stock in his company …” — a U.S. District Attorney, prosecuting American inventor Lee DeForest for selling stock fraudulently through the mail for his Radio Telephone Company in 1913.

4. “There is practically no chance communications space satellites will be used to provide better telephone, telegraph, television, or radio service inside the United States.” — T. Craven, FCC Commissioner, in 1961 (the first commercial communications satellite went into service in 1965).

5. “To place a man in a multi-stage rocket and project him into the controlling gravitational field of the moon where the passengers can make scientific observations, perhaps land alive, and then return to earth - all that constitutes a wild dream worthy of Jules Verne. I am bold enough to say that such a man-made voyage will never occur regardless of all future advances.” — Lee DeForest, American radio pioneer and inventor of the vacuum tube, in 1926

Go read the rest!

Grim Polka...

Peggy Noonan on Hillary Clinton's performance in Tuesday night's Democratic 2008 presidential candidate debate:

The story is not that Mrs. Clinton signaled, in attitude and demeanor, who she believes is her most dangerous foe, the great impediment between her and an easy glide to the nomination. Yes, that would be Tim Russert.

The story is that she talked about policy. Not talking points, but policy. In talking about it she seemed, for the first time, to be revealing what's inside.

It was startling. It's 1993 in there. The year before her fall, and rise.

I spent a day going over the transcripts so I could quote at length, but her exchanges are all over, it's a real Google-fest. Here, boiled down, is what she said.

Giving illegal immigrants drivers licenses makes sense because it makes sense, but she may not be for it, but undocumented workers should come out of the shadows, and it makes sense. Maybe she will increase the payroll tax on Social Security beyond its current $97,500 limit, to $200,000. Maybe not. Everybody knows what the possibilities are. She may or may not back a 4% federal surcharge on singles making $150,000 a year and couples making $200,000. She suggested she backed it, said she didn't back it, she then called it a good start, or rather "I support and admire" the person proposing such a tax for his "willingness to take this on."

She has been accused of doubletalk and she has denied it. And she is right. It was triple talk, quadruple talk, Olympic level nonresponsiveness. And it was, even for her, rather heavy and smug. Her husband would have had the sense to look embarrassed as he bobbed and weaved. It was part of his charm. But he was light on his feet. She turns every dance into the polka. And it is that amazing thing, a grim polka.

After those debates (which I watched online, growing more and more frightened as the candidates droned on endlessly with amazingly leftist positions), my impressions of Hillary were hard for me to articulate. The summary was clear, though: anybody but Hillary, please. Ms. Noonan has nailed it, though, with her characteristic ability to vividly describe people and impressions. Her whole piece is on OpinionJournal, free. I hope you'll read the whole thing…

Scientists Speak Up...

It appears that the IPCC doesn't have quite the consensus of climatologists that the anthropomorphic global warming faithful would have us believe. John R. Christy is director of the Earth System Science Center at the University of Alabama in Huntsville and a participant in the U.N.'s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The IPCC was co-recipient of this year's Nobel Peace Prize, along with Al Gore (aka “The Goracle”). In a Wall Street Journal ($) editorial yesterday, Mr. Christy said:

I'm sure the majority (but not all) of my IPCC colleagues cringe when I say this, but I see neither the developing catastrophe nor the smoking gun proving that human activity is to blame for most of the warming we see. Rather, I see a reliance on climate models (useful but never "proof") and the coincidence that changes in carbon dioxide and global temperatures have loose similarity over time.

There are some of us who remain so humbled by the task of measuring and understanding the extraordinarily complex climate system that we are skeptical of our ability to know what it is doing and why. As we build climate data sets from scratch and look into the guts of the climate system, however, we don't find the alarmist theory matching observations. (The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration satellite data we analyze at the University of Alabama in Huntsville does show modest warming -- around 2.5 degrees Fahrenheit per century, if current warming trends of 0.25 degrees per decade continue.)

It is my turn to cringe when I hear overstated-confidence from those who describe the projected evolution of global weather patterns over the next 100 years, especially when I consider how difficult it is to accurately predict that system's behavior over the next five days.

Mother Nature simply operates at a level of complexity that is, at this point, beyond the mastery of mere mortals (such as scientists) and the tools available to us. As my high-school physics teacher admonished us in those we-shall-conquer-the-world-with-a-slide-rule days, "Begin all of your scientific pronouncements with 'At our present level of ignorance, we think we know . . .'"

I haven't seen that type of climate humility lately. Rather I see jump-to-conclusions advocates and, unfortunately, some scientists who see in every weather anomaly the specter of a global-warming apocalypse. Explaining each successive phenomenon as a result of human action gives them comfort and an easy answer.

Others of us scratch our heads and try to understand the real causes behind what we see. We discount the possibility that everything is caused by human actions, because everything we've seen the climate do has happened before. Sea levels rise and fall continually. The Arctic ice cap has shrunk before. One millennium there are hippos swimming in the Thames, and a geological blink later there is an ice bridge linking Asia and North America.

Unlike Jim Hansen (the proselytizer-in-chief of the anthropomorphic global warming movement), John Christy actually sounds like a scientist – looking for actual evidence and understanding, as opposed to grant funding. The Wall Street Journal is not the preferred venue for scientists, but my guess would be that John Christy had difficulty finding any of the usual venues who would publish anything with his perspective, despite his impeccable credentials.

Mr. Christy starts his editorial by rejecting his “share” of the Nobel Peace Prize, and poking at Al Gore:

I've had a lot of fun recently with my tiny (and unofficial) slice of the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize awarded to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). But, though I was one of thousands of IPCC participants, I don't think I will add "0.0001 Nobel Laureate" to my resume.

The other half of the prize was awarded to former Vice President Al Gore, whose carbon footprint would stomp my neighborhood flat. But that's another story.

It's well worth reading the whole thing, if you're a WSJ subscriber. If you're not a WSJ subscriber, it's also possible that the WSJ will release this editorial for free viewing at OpinionJournal.com (they usually do this within a week of the original editorial's publication), or you can hope that Rupert Murdoch will change the model of the WSJ site from subscription to free (something he's openly discussed as a possibility).

John Christy is not the first well-known climatologist to speak skeptically about the anthropomorphic global warming
(AGW) movement, not by a long shot. But, to my knowledge, he is the first member of the IPCC to have done so, at least in a public venue. Given the political power of the AGW movement, one must admire the courage of Mr. Christy – his willingness to speak skeptically about AGW may well have consequences to his career…

Thursday, November 1, 2007

The Hildabeast...

Simi L. passed something much like this to me, along with a reference to Snopes as having authenticated it. When I looked carefully at the Snopes piece, it was slightly different. Barbara Mikkelson at Snopes did her usual magnificent research job on this, and the question of its authenticity is muddied a bit by the fact that some of the remarks are hard to authenticate (because they're the word of a single witness) or are taken out of context. Nevertheless, many of them are confirmed by multiple witnesses – and none seem implausible given the confirmed ones. The picture this paints of a private Hillary isn't a pretty one.

I've reproduced the Snopes version below – but to get the full effect, you need to go read the Snopes article as well:
WHAT A SWEET, WONDERFUL PERSON THE HILDABEAST IS.
Cheers to the Truth!

"Where is the G-damn f**king flag? I want the G-damn f**king flag up every f**king morning at f**king sunrise."
(From the book "Inside The White House" by Ronald Kessler, p. 244 - Hillary to the staff at the Arkansas Governor's mansion on Labor Day, 1991)

"You sold out, you mother f**ker! You sold out!"
(From the book "Inside" by Joseph Califano, p. 213 - Hillary yelling at Democrat lawyer.)

"It's been said, and I think it's accurate, that my husband was obsessed by terrorism in general and al-Qaida in particular."
(Hillary telling a post-9/11 world what a 'great' commander in chief her husband was; Dateline, NBC 4/16/2004.)

"I have to admit that a good deal of what my husband and I have learned [about Islam] has come from our daughter."
(TruthInMedia.org 8/8/1999 - Hillary at a White House function, proudly tells some Muslim groups she is gaining a greater appreciation of Islam because Chelsea was then taking a class on the "religion of peace")

"F**k off! It's enough that I have to see you shit-kickers every day, I'm not going to talk to you too!! Just do your G*damn job and keep your mouth shut."
(From the book "American Evita" by Christopher Anderson, p. 90 - Hillary to her State Trooper bodyguards after one of them greeted her with "Good morning.")

"You f**king idiot."
(From the book "Crossfire" p. 84 - Hillary to a State Trooper who was driving her to an event.)

"If you want to remain on this detail, get your f**king ass over here and grab those bags!"
(From the book "The First Partner" p. 259 - Hillary to a Secret Service Agent who was reluctant to carry her luggage because he wanted to keep his hands free in case of an incident.)

"Get f**ked! Get the f**k out of my way!!! Get out of my face!!!"
(From the book "Hillary's Scheme" p. 89 - Hillary's various comments to her Secret Service detail agents.)

"Stay the f**k back, stay the f**k away from me! Don't come within ten yards of me, or else! Just f**king do as I say, Okay!!!?"
(From the book "Unlimited Access", by Clinton FBI Agent in Charge, Gary Aldrige, p. 139 - Hillary screaming at her Secret Service detail.)

"Many of you are well enough off that [President Bush's] tax cuts may have helped you. We're saying that for America to get back on track, we're probably going to cut that short and not give it to you. We're going to have to take things away from you on behalf of the common good."
(Hillary grandstanding at a fund raising speech in San Francisco; SFGate.com 6/28/2004.)

"Why do I have to keep proving to people that I am not a liar?!"
(From the book "The Survivor," by John Harris, p. 382 - Hillary in her 2000 Senate campaign)

"Where's the miserable c*ck sucker?"
(From the book "The Truth About Hillary" by Edward Klein, p. 5 - Hillary shouting at a Secret Service officer)

"No matter what you think about the Iraq war, there is one thing we can all agree on for the next days — we have to salute the courage and bravery of those who are risking their lives to vote and those brave Iraqi and American soldiers fighting to protect their right to vote."
(Was posted on Hillary Clinton's senate.gov web site on 1/28/05)

"Put this on the ground! I left my sunglasses in the limo. I need those sunglasses. We need to go back!"
(From the book "Dereliction of Duty" p. 71-72 - Hillary to Marine One helicopter pilot to turn back while en route to Air Force One.)

"A right-wing network was after his presidency ... including perverting the Constitution."
(To Barbara Walters about the Republicans who impeached her husband; 20/20, ABC 6/8/2003.)

"Son of a bitch."
(From the book "American Evita" by Christopher Anderson, p. 259 - Hillary's opinion of President George W. Bush when she found out he secretly visited Iraq just days before her highly publicized trip to Iraq)

"What are you doing inviting these people into my home? These people are our enemies! They are trying to destroy us!"
(From the book "The Survivor" by John Harris, p. 99 - Hillary screaming to an aide, when she found out that some Republicans had been invited to the Clinton White House)

"I mean, you've got a conservative and right-wing press presence with really nothing on the other end of the political spectrum."
(C-Span, 1/19/1997 - Hillary complains about the mainstream media, which are all conservatives in her opinion)

"Come on Bill, put your dick up! You can't f**k her here!!"
(From the book "Inside The White House" by Ronald Kessler, p. 243 - Hillary to Gov. Clinton when she spots him talking with an attractive female at an Arkansas political rally)

"You know, I'm going to start thanking the woman who cleans the restroom in the building I work in. I'm going to start thinking of her as a human being" - Hillary Clinton
(From the book "The Case Against Hillary Clinton" by Peggy Noonan, p. 55)

"You show people what you're willing to fight for when you fight your friends."
(From the book "The Agenda" by Bob Woodward, ch. 14)

"We are at a stage in history in which remolding society is one of the great challenges facing all of us in the West."
(From the book "I've Always Been A Yankee Fan" by Thomas D. Kuiper, p. 119 - During her 1993 commencement address at the University of Texas)

"The only way to make a difference is to acquire power"
(From the book "I've Always Been A Yankee Fan" by Thomas D. Kuiper, p. 68 - Hillary to a friend before starting law school.)

"We just can't trust the American people to make those types of choices.... Government has to make those choices for people"
(From the book "I've Always Been A Yankee Fan" by Thomas D. Kuiper, p. 20 - Hillary to Rep. Dennis Hastert in 1993 discussing her expensive, disastrous taxpayer-funded health care plan)

"I am a fan of the social policies that you find in Europe"
(From the book "I've Always Been A Yankee Fan" by Thomas D. Kuiper, p. 76 - Hillary in 1996)



This ill-tempered, violent, foul mouthed, hateful and abusive woman wants to be your president and have total control as commander-in-chief of a military that her party so openly and proudly admit they detest. I can see someone like this gaining the respect of other nations, and especially from their leaders, who refuse to do as she tells them ... or else. No thanks, my country deserves a better leader, not a dominatrix!
The part that disturbs me the most about these comments (and similar comments by her husband, very much confirmed) is the utter disdain and contempt they demonstrate for ordinary Americans. It is disgusting and disturbing, a very un-American demonstration of elitism.

Also on display, vividly, is the pandering and hypocrisy that seems to be a standard part of politics these days. In this, Hillary (and her party) are far from being unique. Unfortunately, that seems to be a rather standard state of affairs. From this observer's point of view, it seems that it's a rare politician indeed who is motivated by belief and ideology. Instead (judging by their actions) they are motivated entirely by a desire to gain power. They'll say anything to get elected, and never you mind if it conflicts directly with something they said last week, or yesterday, or two minutes ago.

Hillary for President? I don't think so…

Wednesday, October 31, 2007

Jamul Fire Help

Update:

Several people, including Daniel Tyack, wrote to say that the Jamul Fire Help site can now take donations by PayPal. We just made a donation; it was easy and fast. If you're not familiar with PayPal, it's the largest electronic payment service in the world, owned by eBay – it is very safe and reliable. I have used it personally for thousands of transactions.

Original Post:

I just heard from Daniel Tyack that he's helping the Jamul Community Church put up a web site to act as a hub for the effort to help our community rebuild. A worthy effort to be sure. You can find their new web site at www.jamulfirehelp.org. If you need help, or if you can help those who need it, pay them a visit...please.

Puzzler...

Last week's puzzler:

It seems like forever since I posted the last puzzler, about a strange early form of main memory for digital computers.

The correct answer was “mercury”, which got 41% of the 98 votes on this puzzler. To the best of my knowledge, none of the other elements figured in any early computer memory system, though silicon of course is the main constituent of current memory systems.

As one commenter noted, mercury was used in an early memory system that was essentially an acoustic delay line. The system that I worked on used long glass tubes of mercury, bent into a spiral much like a fully compressed spring. Each tube was about three-quarters of an inch in diameter, bent into a spiral that was about six inches in diameter and about four feet long. That means that the tubes, if fully extended, would have been about 100 feet long. The glass was coated with a soft plastic coating that was intended, I think, to provide some high-frequency acoustic isolation. The system had something like 40 of these tubes, providing a 30 bit word with error correction (the extra 10 or so bits). I can't remember some of the interesting details, such as the acoustic frequency or the number of bits held in each delay line. I do remember the main maintenance issue: thermal control. The operation of the system depended on (for those days) very tightly controlled, steady and even, temperatures across the entire array of tubes – not an easy thing to do.

This week's puzzler:

For this week's puzzler, I'm going back to history – this time, a little piece of American history that I happened to witness while I was serving in the U.S. Navy. As always, no fair Googling until you answer!

Tuesday, October 30, 2007

A Beautiful Chaparral Morning...

This is the view just now from the west-looking camera on Lyons Peak. Aside from the char in the foreground, you'd never know San Diego County was on fire just a few days ago. The white layer you see in the distance is just fog; our normal “marine layer” that we see on many mornings. I love this sight, especially as I drive down the last stretch of Skyline Truck Trail into the town of Jamul – the mountain tops look like islands rising out of an ethereal sea…

I received several emails from worried readers this morning, wondering why I wasn't posting. I suspect these are all new readers (and very welcome!) who have the impression from last week that I normally post a couple hundred times a day. This, I'm afraid, is simply not true. I actually have a job, where for some reason they expect me to do things for them <smile>. Normally I write a couple of posts a day, on average; some days more, some days none at all. It doesn't mean I've disappeared!

In response to another reader email, here's an offer: if you'd like your fire story to be up on the web (with photos, if you'd like), I'd be more than happy to let you do so on my blog. Just send me an email with what you want to say, and any photos you want to put up, and I'll take care of getting it up there. Make sure you let me know what personal details you do and don't want published (your real name, your address, etc.).

And one more excellent idea a reader had: if you have a story related to the firefighters and the wonderful job they did protecting our properties, or if you just want to say THANK YOU, I'd be happy to publish that as well. Again, just write up what you'd like to say in an email, and send it to me.

My email address is slightlyloony-at-jamulblog.com (replace the -at- with @). I have to write it in this odd way to keep the spambots from finding it an inundating me with disgusting email advertisements…

Reverse 911

Many of us who live in the remoter regions of San Diego County spend quite a bit of time many miles from home, at work, shopping, having fun, or whatever. A reverse 911 call to our homes when we're away is of little use.

I heard on the radio this morning that San Diego County very recently installed a second-generation reverse 911 system that is much more capable than the old one. It can make hundreds of thousands of calls per hour (a huge improvement), and it can handle cell phones and email addresses. But – a big but – it can only do this if you tell it what numbers or email addresses to call when your address is threatened.

Fortunately they've made it very easy. I just did it for our home, and it took less than a minute to register my cell phone, my wife's cell phone, and both our email addresses. All you need to do is to go to the County's sign-up web site, and fill in one simple form.

Take a few moments and do it now, while you're thinking of it…

Monday, October 29, 2007

Harris Fire Movies...

Hans-Werner Braun is one of the folks who run the HPWREN cameras on Lyons Peaks. These are the cameras that provide the images I use on my camera web site.

This morning, Hans-Werner sent me a link for some movies he has made from the images captured from all four cameras on Lyons Peak. They make for very interesting – and sobering – viewing…