Reader Report...

Reader Rusty Beatty sent in the photo at right and this report:

I wish I had my computer all week. They were sent down the hill on Tuesday. I had friends relaying info from your blog to us on the hill by way of cell phone.

What a week. Hiding for 3 days, had 3 cops come into my house at gun point yesterday. Lived thru fire and get shot by cops, not what I expected. Your blog is the best info I received. Great service.

Here is a picture I took at the top of Ava Loma on Sunday towards Honey Springs. You can see the wind on the pool water. I have more if you are interested.

When did you have to leave? Where do you live in Jamul? I am just up from Rocky Mountain and Lyons Valley Rd , my buddy is hiding at the top of Ava Loma. He has the best views of the fire. The pool picture is his back yard overlooking lee valley.

My sons came back today at 10:00 am and we decided to meet mom for lunch. She had been out since 4:00am Tuesday The boys stayed with me till Wednesday when the fire started coming towards us and the smoke was getting bad. I have been out of my home for only 12 hours and I am getting very upset at how poorly this is being handled. I don't know how you cope. I am almost ready to hike back in. I was misinformed and should never had left, oh well it just another important thing I learned this week. I watched many fire fights on my 4 days of hiding in the hills. I have a 3 page time line from the S D County webpage that I copied only Harris fire information and added comments of what I saw.

I will send some pictures of the fire along Old Burn Way where the helicopters saved all the houses on the street.

Its ok to use my name.

Debbie and I had to evacuate late Tuesday afternoon; we're living out of our RV at a good friend's home in Chula Vista. We live in Lawson Valley, near the intersection of Lawson Valley Road and Rudnick Road.

Harris Fire Update...

This is the view from the east-looking camera on Lyons Peak this morning. Peaceful, beautiful; no sign of the hellish smoke plumes and flame of yesterday.

All four cameras show a fire-free scene.

I have no other information this morning, most especially no new reader reports (since 10 PM last night) or satellite data.

Does anyone know if Lawson Valley is opened back up yet?

Reader Report...

Sawdave reports:

Hi i went to 511.com and then used a link to 211 which led to a link to sdcdpw dot org which showed that as of 6 pm lyons valley was closed at skyline, and skyline was closed at lyons valley.

translation, cant go up the hill on skyline, ALSO cant go over on kimball grade into Lee valley on Lyons valley.

of course 4 corners will ahve checkpoint as it is next to active fire.

Sorry

Reader Question...

From an anonymous commenter:

Can anyone confirm if access to Lee Valley is possible; and if so, which way is best to enter? Thanks for any accurate info - from a Jamulian homeowner

Sunset from Lyons Peak...

A beautiful scene from Lyons Peak, if you can put the reasons for the haze out of your mind for a moment...

Reader Report...

From an anonymous commenter:

As of 10 minutes ago, about 1705, the checkpoint at Pius X = Jamul Drive/Lyons valley. has been moved.

Its up on skyline where you go left for lawson vally and right for lee valley.

No Lawson people will be let back in , according to the officer left behind to direct the deconstruction of the Pius X roadblock.

people are causing problems by using various dirt trails to by passs the roadblocks, making the LEOs very less inclined to help us.

saw amn.

Thanks for the update!

Harris Fire Update...

Here's the current view from the east-looking camera on Lyons Peak. This plume is coming from, as best I can tell, from right around the intersection of Lyons Valley Road and the Barrett Lake access road, and the hill that rises to the south of there.

Harris Fire Update...

Here's the latest pass of MODIS satellite thermal imagery. The same area we've been following all afternoon. On this pass, there's a hotspot showing on the southern flank of Lawson Peak, right where I guessed the latest flareup started (from the smoke visible on the Lyons Peak cameras).

The only real news in this imagery is the extent of the currently burning part. Or rather, the part burning a few hours ago when the satellite made the pass that collected this data – that would have been at the peak of the flareup...

Reader Report...

Tom S. reports:

I just drove down Skyline Truck to the intersection with LV by the
school. They had just opened up Skyline Truck, and the CHP said it
would be open to "the top of the grade". But he said if I left I might
not be able to get back in, as it could change at any time. He said
it had changed about 10 times today. I drove down LV road and there
was another road block at Jamul Drive. They said if I left I might
well not be able to get back in, so I decided to turn around, and pick
up my dogs and son who are at friends' houses tomorrow.

Thanks again for your great blogging. It has really helped me try to
understand where things are.

Thanks, Tom. And you're very welcome...

Reader Report...

Cris reports:

He is home-thanks!
But that smoke on the other side on Lyons Valley doesn't look too good...

Glad to hear Mike made it home ok. I'm ready to go home myself!

Reader Report...

CLW reports:

Just spoke w/the CHP at the corner of Lyons Vly and Skyline Truck Trail. He has orders of a hard closure for this area of Jamul Highlands, but his Sergent just went down the hill to see about opening it up. Some people have been escorted in. Told me to be patient they are trying to get us home. He was very polite and helpful!

Thanks!

Reader Report...

An anonyomous commentor reports:

94 just opened back up!

Yay! Now maybe Mike W. can get home!

Reader Report...

From Cris W.:

We got home today to Hillside near Simpson's, no stops at all anywhere on 94. Then my husband Mike went out to get the mail in El Cajon. He's still trying to get back home!

Hope he makes it soon, Cris. Please let us know if you hear anything about the situation up towards Lawson Valley...

Reader Question...

From CLW:

Do we know if they're going to open up Lyons Valley Rd by Skyline Truck Trail and Jamul Highlands Area?? Some of our family made it in this morning, but then they closed the road again and now several families are split up. If anyone had any info please let us know.

Thanks!!

Do any of my readers know?

Reader Report

From fellow Jamulian blogger Bob Clay:

211 tells me that "West Jamul" is open. I came home to my house on Pleasant View LN OK, which is between St Pius and the Primary School. After that my folks came home to all the way to Lawson Valley. When my wife tried to come home, she got turned around at the corner of Jamul DR and Lyons Valley RD. The road block seems to keep moving around and occasionally disappears.

Most frustrating for my wife, who had three cats and a canary with her. You could walk to our house from where she got turned around if there were no animals to carry.

Any information on what is going on currently would be appreciated. I called the Highway Patrol since they were manning the checkpoints and I basically got a bunch of useless smart ass answers.

From all I've been able to tell, the situation has been very fluid today. As best I can tell, this reflects the changing situation – especially as regards the big flareup I've been following all day. I have no sense that any authorities are being arbitrary and capricious. Chaotic, yes, but then, this is truly a chaotic situation…

Reader Reports...

From sawdave:

Hi Anon, thanks for the up to the minute update!

Breeze here by Catholic church is onshore, not quite steady at estimated 5-10 mph.

It was reported to me that Dorthy from twisted scissors salon in Jamul, who lives in Dulzura, lost her home. I think it was in the area east of Romo and before you drop down into the valley where barret is.

If any news is available on what parts of deerhorn and honey springs burned it would be appreciated.

i heard rumors from the jamul drive checkpoint on Wednesday, but dont watn to pass tehm on until source is more reliable.

Thanks again Silly!
sawdave

From Linda I:

Diane and Paul Jacob currently live in Steele Canyon Golf course estates.
Please note that the list circulating is not 100% accurate. It listed our brother-in-laws parents house in Deerhorn Valley as destroyed and actually just two outbuildings burned. (Doublechecked this afternoon)

From an anonymous commenter:

Thank you for all your updates, now that the fire is out by the star's homes in Malibu, the rest of the fires don't exist anymore. Does anyone know if the fire crossed Lyons Valley Road just east of Four Corners? My mother-in-law lives there and we have not been able to get any solid information.

Thank you, one and all...

Reader Report...

From (presumably) a fellow evacuee, staying at Steele Canyon:

I'm still at Steele Canyon. News that you may already know. I just talked to a fireman. There are currently 50 engines out there, and lots of air power. They are using the massive plane from Canada that fills up at Lake Elsinore. The firemen set a back fire today and that is what has caused most of the smoke. I asked if they were able to maintain the line they drew (Four Corners, Lyons Valley area) and the reply was that they are trying their best.

There is a list distributed here daily of address of houses destroyed or damaged. It is not complete, and covers the whole county, but it was 9 pages of small print this morning, and there will be a new list tomorrow as they assess. There is also a map posted of what areas have burned so far. The briefings are at 10 am and 8 pm. We have direct access to Diane Jacobs daily and to the head fire people as well. They take as much time as needed to answer all the questions.

Thank you so much for this report. My readers and I would appreciate further reports from these briefings, or any other sources of solid information... I believe Diane Jacobs and her husband live in Deerhorn Valley – does anyone know if her home is ok?

Harris Fire Update...

Here's the latest MODIS satellite thermal imagery; just came through in the past few minutes. The only hotspot left on the Harris Fire is the one threatening our home. The red splotches are the actively burning areas detected on the current pass. If there were orange splotches, they'd indicate spots that were burning within the past 24 hours, but not on this pass. The black spots are spots that were burning more than 24 hours ago, and the grey were burning more than 48 hours ago.

The area where I suspect the current flareup originated is just north (up) from the center of the row of four red splotches forming the northern flank of the fire in this data. Or home is just on the other side of the ridge that's north of the current fire location. You can imagine why we've been losing a lot of sleep this week, can't you?

If you'd like more information about where I obtain this data (and other information), check out the “Wildfire Information” link in the sidebar at right, just below the Day-by-Day cartoon. That will take you to a post I dedicated to exactly this topic…

Harris Flareup Update...

Looks to me like this flareup is on it's way to being history. I've now had several readers write in about the firefight against this flareup – very quick action by both ground crews and lots of aircraft. On several occasions, I've even caught aircraft in the Lyons Peak cameras.

Once again: thank you, firefighters!

After seeing the animations I referenced in a previous post, I got out my maps and tried to estimate where that northern flareup originated. I believe it was on the southern flank of Lawson Peak, almost due south of the peak, between halfway and two thirds of the way down the slope. That's way too close for comfort!

Harris Flareup Animations

These are courtesy of the HPWREN site, which is the organization that supplies the photos I've been using this week.

There are two animations pertinent to this flareup: from 9 to 12 this morning, and from 12 to now. I can see from these that there are two separate, nearly simultaneous flareups. The northern one (left) appears to have started on or possibly even north of Lyons Valley Road.

The most comforting part of these movies is the last part of the second one – the progress the firefighters are making is very evident...

Harris Flareup Update...

This is looking much better. The one ugly gray plume left is the furthest one from Lawson Valley; looks like it's near the dam on Barrett Lake, likely on the west side. The earlier fires even further out (in Hauser Canyon) are no longer in evidence.

My stomach is starting to untie itself...

Reader Report...

Linda I. reports:

94 appears closed to eastbound, probably to prevent traffic from interfering with emergency crews.

Ron Muller tells us there are 5 or 6 water trucks roaming Rudnick. We are trying to get them to issue us a windshield number so we can go set a pump at the lake (really a pond). We have one last chance to get in with the 1 water truck remaining here at our house and it might be our only ticket in. Grandpa tells us there is a steady stream of aircraft.
: (

Scary moments for us and our neighbors in Lawson Valley…

Harris Flareup Update...

If you look carefully at the base of the northern end of this flareup (to the left side of where the smoke is emerging), you can see that the flareup is greatly reduced in intensity in that area. I think it would be reasonable to attribute that to the firefighter's actions (including, possibly, air resources), as that's an area that I know is full of fuel, and I can't imagine why it would go out by itself.

Compared with a few days ago, when there were dozens and dozens of hotspots and flareups throughout the county, there should be lots of both ground and air resources to throw at this. Hopefully that's exactly what's happening…

The bottom photo shows the view to the north from Lyons Peak, with that horrible pall of smoke. A couple of hours ago, we thought the danger was over and we were going home. Now we're back to wondering whether we're going to have a home…

Reader Report...

A reader writes with this:

Hi SL, its hard to tell from the angle of the photo, but it appears tht maybe the fire is mostly burning downhill towards Lyons Valley Road, and the area from where the Drinkard trailer has been parked on the side of the road, and the turnoff to go fishing at barrett?

It would be very dangerous to put crews above any active fire that size, but especially while its growing like that.

Below there would be lots of rocks and boulders tumbling down as chaparral holding them burns, also prob some burning limbs and such.

We did see lots of apparatus scurrying around in RSD and also in our area by Pius X when we returned home about 1300.

I hope they can get a line on it and keep it in between the lake and what already burned in the horse fire.

I hope it has not jumped Lyons or skyline in the area around four corners.

hang in there, the folks over here are hoping and praying for you all and the FF and our peeps in Deerhorn/upper honey springs

Thank you for that report, and the good wishes.

I may be fooling myself, but my last couple of peeks at the east-looking camera look a little bit better to me...

Harris Flareup Update...

This flareup is growing very quickly. As best I can tell, the northernmost (leftmost) reach of it is in the near the intersection of Lyons Valley Road and the access road to Barrett Lake. The smoke is thick, dark gray, and ugly – new fuel is burning.

The winds appear to be to the north or maybe a little northeast. The pall of smoke extends to the northwest, however – directly over our home, and therefore very worrisome, as that indicates the probable direction the fire will burn.

The rightmost extent looks like it's burning in the western reaches of Hauser Canyon.

As always, more specific information would be greatly appreciated.

We need those firefighters and aircraft…

Flareup on the Harris Fire

This is very worrisome for us – it appears to be directly upwind from our home.

This is the view from the east-looking camera on Lyons Peak.

Reader Report...

Linda I., on hearing of the on-again, off-again lifting of the evacuation order, ran up the road from her house to see what was going on. She was able to confirm that there is now a roadblock on Skyline Truck Trail (toward the top of the hill east of Jamul) and that cars are being turned back.

Double dang!

Reader Reports...

Dang! Two readers have reported that the entry into Lawson Valley is closed:

Hi as of 12:05 law enforcement officers (Leos) PA-ed the line of cars waiting to get by the checkpoitn at L VLY and Skyline by the eelmentary school. PA was so loud we could here it, since the cars are backed down to the Olive Grove at Lazy M ranch. (just past 1 mile marker on L VLY )

"Due to flareup the road is again closed at skyline and lawson Valley"

I take this to mean they will not let Lawson and Lee Valley rsidents through right now.

The flare up looks pretty bad from here just uphill from the catholic church.

FYI, hope this helps, sorry for the bad news, sawdave.

And this:

The police let me past the roadblock at the start of Skyline Truck Trail going north with ID and said I would be able to come and go. But when I tried to leave to check out of the motel, they said if I left, I would not be able to come back. Also, they were turning all cars back (there was a long line) at the roadblock. They said it had been changed into a "hard closure" and that they were not even letting some emergency vehicles through. I don't know what the story is. Confusion or some change in fire status.

We can see smoke to the east of Lyons Peak, from two hotspots near Barrett Lake; this seems the likely cause.

Dang it!

Reader Report...

Mike S. reports:

Tom: The roads are open into Lawson Valley, they are checking ID for residents only at the beginning of Skyline Truck Trail. The turn off of Skyline to the south though is still closed.

I also called Linda I. and she confirmed that residents are being allowed into Lawson Valley. We're going home!

Reader Report...

From Linda I., a very welcome report for us:

Just came back from Lawson Valley. We were up there last night because of the again mandatory evacuation. Had to stay and take care of Grandpa and his place! The fire had jumped Honey Springs at 4 corners so they were concerned and did a reverse 911 and then a very stern door to door. When we saw at about 10:00 last night that they had a handle on it I came home and Robby stayed. There was no sign of the many police who had been there earlier. The road block was gone from Lawson Valley Rd. so I assumed I could get back up there this morning.
I needed to take Grandpa his medicine so I tried to run the checkpoint after unsuccessfully trying to persuade the Highway Patrol. He backed up faster than I could go forward!
But I pleaded and left my license said give me 45 minutes.
Well when I came down they have now opened it to residents all the way up. However I just talked to a friend and she said 94 by Steele Canyon is rather backed up but open.
Glad this is over for now.
I hate Santa Ana winds!
God Bless!
Linda

(from a follow-up email):

I forgot to add Tom that Proctor Valley is open.
Also here are still roadblocks at both of the ends of Lyons Valley Road, by the schools and at the top by Lawson Valley. I am really not sure if that is cleared for residents yet.
Thanks for keeping everyone posted.

Thanks, Linda. That bit about trying to run the checkpoint raised a cheer in Chula Vista…

More Reader Reports...

First this report from Loretta:

I am in the Animal Rescue Reserve and I was able to drive a little ways past the schools on Lyons Valley Rd. The houses looked fine up to Rocky Mountain Rd?? I didn't go any farther. Houses on Rocky Mt road looked fine also.

And now this one from Bob C.:

I am back in my house as of ~ 8 am this morning. My house is between the primary school and the St. Pius X Church. My folks still can't get back yet as the road is blocked on Lyons valley just beyond my street.

Bob didn't mention this, but I know he didn't run around any roadblocks or anything: the western parts of Jamul have had the evacuation orders lifted.

Thank you, Loretta and Bob. People in our area really appreciate the updates…

A Reader Reports...

Just received this by email from Sally H.:

Thanks for your posts. I am heading to SD to fetch my mom back here to Springville, CA. My brother was able to get in to Dulzura on Wednesday evening. All structures in Dulzura Proper were looking good. San Diego Gas and Electric had requested permission to park on our land by the CDF station and were starting to get electricity back up. Your posts were wonderful. I just LOVE the internet. Thanks again.

You're very welcome, Sally. And thank you for both the report and the kind words...

Poomacha Fire...

I haven't posted much about the Poomacha Fire, burning in the north part of San Diego County. Judging by the latest satellite data, it is by far the biggest remaining active fire in our county. For any of you who love the backcountry of San Diego County, as we do, this is terrible news.

The most actively burning part is north of the peak and the telescope site, and its burning into some of the most remote chaparral and high desert ecosystems in our county. Access is difficult in there, so I suspect there will be even more dependence on air resources than elsewhere. I hope the firefighters can save some of this area…

Harris Fire Update...

All the information I can get my hands on looks like good news to me. First, the top photo is the north-looking camera on Lyons Peak. There is no fresh smoke visible anywhere, and certainly not in Lawson Valley, where our home is. Given the word put out at the briefing (mentioned in my previous post), this must mean that the firefighters were successful at holding the line down around Lyons Valley Road.

Thank you, firefighters. We don't have the words…

This second photo is the camera looking west from Lyons Peak, toward the town of Jamul and the coast. There's not even a wisp of smoke visible. All the hills and mountains that have been obscured for days are now clearly visible.

On the east camera (which I have not posted), you can see some smoke hanging in the Barrett Canyon and Hauser Canyon areas. The south-looking camera shows no fresh smoke over Deerhorn Valley, but the entire view looks monochromatic – shades of grays. I hope, for the sake of the folks who live in Deerhorn Valley, that we're seeing an artifact of the camera and the light, and not reality.

Finally, here's the latest MODIS satellite thermal imagery of the Harris Fire. The first thing to note is that there are no red splotches at all: the satellite did not detect any hotspots on its last pass. The orange splotches were hotspots within the past 24 hours, but not any longer.

It all looks good.

If any of my readers have personal knowledge of conditions on the ground, or if you have attended briefings where good information was put out, please write me (the email address is at right, down toward the bottom) or leave a comment.

A Plea...

An anonymous commenter on the previous post notes that there are twice-daily briefings at Steele Canyon High School on the local situation. At a briefing yesterday, they heard that the Lawson Valley area was at risk, and that they talked about stationing engines on the north side of Lawson Valley (near Loveland reservoir) as a next line of defense.

That's not good news, but it is good information. The commenter recommended that I attend the briefings, but I am far away in Chula Vista (evacuated) and cannot. Hence my plea: if any of my readers can attend these briefings and report on them – either by email to me personally, or in a comment – I'd sure appreciate it. On a similar note, if there are any such briefings where good local information is put out (for any locality), I'd be happy to do the same.

A Beautiful Sight...

The cameras on Lyons Peak show no burning places at all, in any direction, for the first time since last Saturday night.

What a beautiful sight!

Harris Fire Update...

The news is all good this evening as our sun sets. The top photo is a capture of the north-facing camera on top of Lyons Peak. You can see smoke in the air, to be sure – but not a plume or a burn anywhere in sight. Very comforting for this inhabitant of Lawson Valley!

The air seems to be a bit clearer tonight, both here in Chula Vista and out in Lawson Valley. A few minutes ago I was out walking our dogs, and a flight of four (I think) Sea Stallion helicopters – huge, heavy-lifting military helicopters – flew by a mile or so away, clearly visible through the smoky haze. It looked like they were returning to the Coronado Naval Air Station from the direction of the Harris Fire. The sight of them was immensely cheering…

The view to the east is in the second photo down. The big flareup evident earlier in the day is completely gone. The air is much clearer in that direction than it was just a couple of hours ago. The smaller flareup right near Lyons Peak is also gone. Deerhorn Valley (the lower right quadrant of this photo) is completely free of plumes. A lovely sight, that is.

A couple of hours ago I called 211 to find out if Lawson Valley was ready for “repopulation” (the term many local officials are using to describe letting people go back home – seems like a strange and perhaps ill-advised turn of phrase). A very polite, sympathetic, and well-connected young lady sadly informed me that not only was Lawson Valley not ready for repopulation, it had just come under mandatory evacuation order this very morning, and law enforcement was having trouble getting everyone out of there. Knowing some of my neighbors, this is very easy to believe.

The third photo down is the view south from Lyons Peak. In the lower left is the other half of Deerhorn Valley, with no plumes from hot spots there, either. For the first time in several days, we can see Otay Mountain and Tecate Peak. Plenty of hanging smoke is in evidence, but so far as I can tell, none of it is from current burns.

Until last night, all the smoke from the fires has been blown by the Santa Ana winds coming out of the northeast at an average of 25 or 30 miles per hour. The smoke plume extended for hundreds of miles out to sea. Now that the winds have turned around into their normal pattern of onshore winds, all that smoke out over the ocean is blowing back toward land. Some of it is coming right back to us, some to the north and south of us. I'm sure this “blow-back” is a major part of the haze visible here.

Finally, the bottom photo is the west-looking camera, looking over Jamul toward Chula Vista. If you didn't know that was smoke and that we'd had these horrid fires, the scene is almost romantic – like something from the Smoky Mountains back east. But all that smoke used to be trees, chaparral, and homes…

After the Cedar Fire, when immediate threat to human life was over, we (San Diegans, I mean) started assessing the damage to our environment and our wildlife. That was four years ago, and we've learned much watching the flora and fauna start its recovery. Some things have surprised us positively, such as the oak trees that we thought were dead and gone – they've sprouted from deep within their branches. They're survivors. Other things are going to take much longer, especially the large conifers like the beautiful Ponderosa pines of our higher mountains. The wildlife has only just begun to return; we've seen only a few deer up in Cuyamaca, and I've read that the mountain lion population is still a tiny fraction of what it used to be. This year's fires have burned even more territory. Even worse, I suspect, is that much of the remaining unburned area has gone up – not all of it, mind you, but a good fraction of it. Or to say the same thing in a different way: San Diego County's backcountry will look much different in the next decade or two than it has since I moved here in 1974. I'll miss it, especially the large conifer forests. I got to having these sad thoughts today as I looked at the map of the fire burning on Palomar Mountain, where the best stands of Ponderosa I know were. If the satellite imagery is accurate, most of those pines are now charcoal…

Harris Fire Update...

The California Fire Alliance web site (the same place where I get MODIS thermal imagery) just posted a “fire perimeter” – to the best of my knowledge, this is the fire command's best estimate of the current perimeter of the burned area. In this image, it is the light blue cross-hatched area.

This map corresponds very well to both the MODIS data and observations from the cameras on Lyons Peak – but (assuming it's accurate) it fills in some details not obtainable from either of those sources. A word of caution as you look at this image: just because your home lies within the blue hatched area does NOT mean it was lost! The firefighters had (and still have) structure protection teams fighting at the fire's flanks and at hotspots throughout the entire fire. We have seen on the news many stories of their successes – and we know that the number of homes lost in the Harris Fire is a tiny fraction of the total number of homes within that area…

Harris Fire Update...

The top photo shows the view east from Lyons Peak as of a couple of minutes ago. You can see that the plume near Barrett Lake is greatly reduced; I'm not sure whether that's the result of firefighter's action or it just burned out. The smaller, closer plume near the lookout tower is also smaller and much lighter in color, hopefully on its way out.

The bottom photo shows the view west from Lyons Peak, toward the town of Jamul. The smoke plume we saw earlier just south (left) of Jamul Butte is completely gone. I watched news reports of the firefighters working hard there, with lots of helicopter support; I'd bet that their efforts are why that hotspot is dead…

San Diego Fires Update...

This is the latest MODIS satellite thermal imagery; I just captured this data a couple of minutes ago. I still have the light red cross-hatching for the older fires showing (these are fires dating back to 2000). The top capture is a closeup of the Harris Fire. The town of Jamul is on the left edge, about 1/3 of the way down the picture. Barrett Lake is the big lake on the right. Loveland reservoir is at the top, just to the left of center. Our home is south of the right edge of Loveland, about halfway down the unburned part.

The current hotspots (the red hatched areas) are exactly where I'd guessed from the earlier smoke plumes. You can see four red splotches just west (left) of Lake Barrett, right in that canyon I posted about earlier. The other hotspot is just south of the town of Jamul, and a little bit east, just north of state 94. This satellite data was actually captured several hours ago (it takes them a few hours to get it posted on the web), so the cameras are giving us more current information – and what they show is great progress. I'll post a capture of them in a few minutes.

The lower image is a “wide angle” view of all of San Diego County, along with the southern parts of Orange County. Palomar Mountain looks like the worst hotspot left in the county, though we know from news reports that there are still big hotspots near Julian, and also on Camp Pendleton (the fire visible near the coast). You can also see a fire burning up in Orange County; I know nothing about that one.

We've turned the corner on the fires overall in the county. Most of the news now is not new evacuation orders (as it has been), but rather announcements that people can now return to their homes. The evacuation centers are starting to empty out. There's optimism in the air, and neighbors helping neighbors…

Hotspot Update...

I posted earlier on the new flareup out toward Barrett Lake, and you can still see the smoke plume from that. New is the dark gray plume that appears to be coming from on Lyons Peak itself, just down the eastern slope from the camera. I'd be worried about the camera surviving except that I know that all four cameras have already survived a burn-over two nights ago.

Some Perspective...

I just saw Duncan Hunter (our Representative and one of the 87 announced candidates for President in 2008) on KUSI TV. He said something that resonated with me. I can't quote his words precisely. The context was a comparison between the emergency response to our wildfires and the response to the Katrina hurricane. He pointed out that the people of San Diego had demonstrated their good character in their response to these fires – almost no looting, so many volunteers and donated items that the relief agencies are begging people to stop contributing, and the complete absence of the “victim mentality” so much on display in New Orleans. He's right, and I'm glad he took the time to made the point…

The map at right is much like the other that I've posted this week, except that I have added the light red cross-hatched areas that show the perimeters of ALL the fires we've had since 2000. Between those past fires and this current fire, it looks to me like well over 50% of the land in the county has burned in the past 8 years. Our home is in that odd-shaped corridor that has not burned at all in that time, trending roughly east from La Mesa. We've been very lucky…

Another Flareup...

I just captured this view from Lyons Peak, looking east. That big, ugly, gray column of smoke is new in the past half hour. It appears to be coming from the small canyon that runs WNW from Barrett Lake towards Lyons Valley Road. This is the canyon that has an unpaved access road to the lake running through it, with a big steel gate along Lyons Valley Road.

Right now the the winds are very light, trending to the northeast if anything at all, so this doesn't look like an immediate threat to Lawson Valley...but I can't help but worry when there's a flareup that close…

Skyline Truck Trail Report...

One of our readers (thank you, Linda I.!) sent me the report below just a few minutes ago. She and her husband live near 94, between the Lyons Valley Road and Steele Canyon Road intersections. If you're a local, you most likely know who she is (but I'm not using her name here without permission). Suffice it to say that she's a reliable source. Here's her report:

We just returned from a trip up Skyline Truck Trail. Didn't go into Lawson Valley but will go back later. An update on Lyons Peak; appears the whole lower East side is still smoldering but I actually did not see flames this morning. That is the smoke you see from the cameras except the smoke is staying lower then the peak. At least one helicopter is working that area. Saw probably 8 fire trucks going into the area with strike teams... probably for structure protection in case in gets to the bottom by Lyons Valley Road. Saw many many cars patrolling the neighborhoods keeping them safe. There were three patrol cars turning into Lawson Valley as we went by. Just talked to --- and --- (the house --- Rudnick) and the air quality is bad, but it is bad here too. I think it is probably bad every where because of the calm winds. I understand they have tightened security at Steele Canyon and 94 adding a second block at Rancho Miguel. They are supposed to review the road closures at noon.

Trouble Near Jamul?

Update (10:23 AM):

Another photo capture at right. Unfortunately the smoke plume seems to be growing. It appears to be emerging from an area just south of Jamul Butte, just south of the gated community that is east of 94, a mile or so south of the town of Jamul. I can't tell where it is along an east-west line, but it seems to be fairly close to the butte itself…

Update (10:12 AM):

A reader just left a comment (thank you!) saying that everything was fine near the Catholic church in the town of Jamul; he lives nearby. He can't see far enough away to know exactly where the burn is…

Original Post (9:58 AM):

I've been watching the Lyons Peak cameras very carefully this morning, and I just spotted some new smoke – dark gray smoke risking from the area just to the left of Jamul Butte in the photo at right (click to enlarge). I can't tell exactly where that is (too much smoke in the air), but in general it appears to be south of the town of Jamul, somewhere along the line between Lyons Peak and the Jamul Indian Reservation. Much of that area is open space, so this doesn't necessarily mean that any homes are threatened. Also, we heard on the news that in the area just south of there was the location of a large backfire placed last night as part of the firefighting operation; this could be remnants of that operation and so might actually even be good news. If I learn any more, I will of course post about it. If anyone still in the area knows more, please let me know…

Lawson Valley Update...

The image at right is a capture of a small piece of the view from the north-looking camera on Lyons Peak. The ridge you see below and extending to the right of Viejas Mountain is the unnamed ridge that forms the north side of Lawson Valley. Below that ridge is Lawson Valley itself. Our home is out of sight, on the north slope of the ridge even lower down that forms the south side of Lawson Valley. In that space are hundreds of homes of our friends and neighbors – and they've all made it unscathed at this point.

Harris Fire Update...

Until about ten minutes ago, I thought today was Friday – but it's actually only Thursday! That's a measure of how Debbie and I have been disoriented by this whole experience. We both were able to sleep well last night, which helps considerably...

The news on the Harris Fire this morning is 100% good news. It's just delightful to be able to say that.

First, the satellite map (showing the entire county and all the fires). The Harris Fire is the southern fire, and there's not a single hotpot remaining in it. The gray, black, and orange splotches show the extent of the burned areas – a huge area. As I write this, I'm listening to the morning news conference, with County Supervisor Ron Roberts speaking. He introduced the session with some statistics, calling this the largest fire or disaster ever to strike in California, and in some ways the largest ever in the U.S. The burned areas are about 350,000 acres in extent. Their best estimate is that 1,470 homes have been burned, and “thousands” of other buildings (note: in the Cedar Fire four years ago, these early government estimates proved to be low, so I won't be surprised if the numbers go up). They are estimating 560,000 people have been evacuated.

The photo at right is the north view from Lyons Peak, captured around dawn this morning, toward Lawson Valley and our home. It looks great; the only smoke visible is from very near the peak. We called our home phone this morning; the answering machine still picks up. It is amazing how comforting to hear that stupid greeting message… The satellite imagery above confirms what we've heard from every other source: the fire never crossed significantly north of Lyons Valley Road, and not at all north of Skyline Truck Trail.

The view east is at right. There is still a lot of smoke in the area, but it is far better looking than it was yesterday. In the distance, you can see smoke plumes coming from the Barrett Dam area, and even further east. These are all too far from us to be a threat.

I'm still listening to the news conference, and official after official is blathering on about how well the official emergency response went, and also about how well the community itself has responded. With some amazement, one official said that the evacuation centers are requesting residents to stop bringing in non-monetary donations – they have more than they need. Certainly from our perspective the official response is far better than it was four years ago in the Cedar Fire. The one sour note – actually a very bitter note – is that the news is reporting that many perfectly functional, manned, and well-equipped firefighting aircraft were kept on the ground for two or three days because of bureaucratic infighting between CalFire (the coordinating agency) and the agencies controlling the aircraft. If that is true (and I suspect it is), it is just awful…

The view south is at right. We can see the peaks south of us for the first time since Monday. Deerhorn Valley, in the foreground, is smoky – but I don't see any remaining burning areas. I'm sure there are embers and small fires out there, but the dozens of major hotspots that we saw yesterday are all gone.

The firefighters are now speaking at the news conference. A consistent note from them is that the end of the Santa Ana winds has greatly helped their efforts. The fire chief for San Diego City just announced that 10,700 acres burned within the city limits – that's hard to wrap my brains around. The Harris Fire (the one that threatens our home) destroyed 170 homes, and it still burning in the Lyons Valley area, which they see now as the major threat from the Harris Fire. That is the front that threatens our home, so we're not quite out of the woods yet (though things look very good now).

Finally, here's the view from Lyons Peak to the west, toward the coast. It looks a bit like a normal foggy morning, but all that white stuff is smoke, not fog. I'm writing this from the livingroom of my friend's home in Chula Vista, out in that smoke you see just the left and above San Miguel peak.

We are hopeful that we will be allowed to return to our home today, or tomorrow at the latest. We're feeling very fortunate compared to so many of our neighbors – all those that we love, all the stuff we care about, is still fine. The worst we've suffered is some anxiety, discomfort, and inconvenience; we're fortunate to be able to stay with friends instead of an evacuation center. We're looking forward to going home; our hearts are with those who don't know whether their homes have survived, or who already know their home has burned…

Deerhorn Valley Update...

Here's the view this evening looking east from Lyons Peak. There are still hotspots burning on the west flank of Elena Mountain, nearly down to where Honey Springs Road crosses from left to right across the photo. I didn't realize these fires were still burning; there's been little smoke from this area all day long. The flanks of Elena Mountain are not very accessible, but some of those hotspots are down near homes. I'm sure there are firefighters on them; we hope for their success this evening...

Harris Fire/Lawson Valley Update...

Here's your evening situation report, from your blogger who is operating in somewhat reduced mental condition – I haven't slept much in the past three days. I'm hoping to fix that problem tonight; I'm heading for bed in just a few minutes.

At top right is the latest MODIS satellite thermal imagery. The most interesting thing about it is the absence of red-hatched areas – which means that the satellite isn't seeing any hotspots. We know from local news reports that this simply cannot be true, because we've seen video that showed fires in those areas. What it must mean is that the overall thermal effects are way down, and in particular that there are no large fires burning.

The photo at right is from the north-looking camera on Lyons Peak, toward Lawson Valley and our home. There is smoke, but it's from areas lower on Lyons Peak itself, as the fire burns downward and northward.

As best I understand it, the biggest remaining risk to Lawson Valley is that the winds, as they return to their normal onshore flow from the southwest or west, will blow the fires now in the Lyons Peak area (and just west of there) toward us. That's the bad news. The good news is that the fires will shortly be in mostly accessible areas, with roads and trails that will let the firefighters get to the burning areas.

We remain very optimistic, and very grateful to the firefighters working so hard to protect our homes&hellip...

Lawson Valley Update...

We just caught some helicopter footage on KUSI (local channel 9) from a helicopter flying slowly over Gaskill Peak on the east end of Lawson Valley. We watched the camera pan slowly from west to south to east, looking at San Miguel, Lyons Peak, Elena Peak, and Lake Barrett. It was crystal-clear from this video that there is NO FIRE anywhere near Lawson Valley – very good news for us. The north flank of Lyons Peak appears to have a fire line about halfway up the slope, burning downward (it burned over the peak last night).

We're ready to go home, but not allowed to yet. Maybe tomorrow...

Camera Site Problems

Update (4:30 PM):

My web site is back up. Apparently the surge of traffic busted my web site. After some thick-headed work (I haven't slept much for three nights), I managed to get the darned thing running again...

Update (10:35 AM):

My web site is still getting hammered by traffic from the exposure on XETV; I've been unable to log in ever since. A clarification, prompted by a reader: if you were lucky enough to already have my cameras page loaded into your web browser, it will still be working – it only needs access to my web site to get that initial page loaded. Everything after that happens by direct access to the HPWREN camera site from your web browser.

If you cannot load my page, you can still get to the HPWREN cameras directly by going to this page. These images are the same as the ones on my site, except that they are not automatically adjusted to fit your monitor, and they are not overlaid with graphics to identify places (so it's a bit harder to orient yourself). It's still very good and current information, of course…

Original Post (9:47 AM):

Watching TV news a few minutes ago, I was surprised to see my web site being highlighted (on XETV 6, Fox News in San Diego) as a source of information. They put up the links to the site hosting the camera site, and showed current photos. That's kinda nice, but...ever since that moment, I've been unable to log into the site! I'm afraid that the publicity has driven the traffic through the roof, and completely overloaded that site. Perhaps it will ease up as people fail to connect to it, and it will come back to life. I sure hope so...

Another Question...

One of my readers (Loretta) just posted a comment about Reservoir Street in Jamul. To the best of my knowledge, that part of Jamul hasn't had any burns at all.

Evacuation Tales...

We evacuated last night just at dusk. I did not take any photos, so I'll just try to paint some “word pictures”.

We left our home and headed due south, uphill, on a private road that the owner opened to help with fire evacuation. This took us to Skyline Truck Trail via Wisecarver Road. From this intersection we got the first views of the pall of smoke over the town of Jamul (to our west at that point) and Lyons Peak (to our south). We could also see a smaller plume of smoke to our east, over the Barrett Lake area. The normal evacuation route would be through Jamul down to state 94, but I was not comfortable heading straight into that smoke.

So instead, we headed east on Skyline Truck Trail, down to Lyons Valley Road, east on there up to Japatul Road, and then out through the town of Descanso to the northeast. As we traveled up Lyons Valley Road, with Gaskill Peak on our left and Barrett Lake on our right, we could see a scene straight out of hell on our right, to the south of Barrett Lake. This was in the Barrett Canyon area, and on the hills to the southeast of Barrett Canyon. Huge flames, smoke plumes, and long trails of wind-blown embers. This was all far enough away from us so that we didn't feel threatened – but close enough to be easily visible and scary-looking.

By the time we got to I-8 in Descanso, it was dark. We drove slowly down to Chula Vista along the freeways, slowly because our pickup was loaded to the overflowing with our stuff, and we were afraid that high speed would blow stuff out. We arrived at our friend's home in Chula Vista around 8:30 PM, and slept fitfully last night.

Just a couple of minutes ago, we got a clear view to the north from Lyons Peak – and there are no smoke plumes in the direction of Lawson Valley. We can also call our house and get our answering machine, so we know our house is still there and still has power…

Answering Some Questions...

Quite a few people have left comments or sent me email with specific questions. In many cases, I know little – and the situation is so fluid that anything I do know now could change five minutes from now. But we know well how hungry people are for information, so here's my best information in response to those questions where I have any information at all:

Kaye Kids poodles on Cinnamon Road: this is out in Deerhorn Valley, on the northeast side, near Elena Peak. I cannot be sure about the situation in that specific area, but there is good reason to be optimistic, as we could see that the ground crews were working hard in that area and had much success. However, we also heard on news conferences that between 40 and 100 homes were lost in Deerhorn Valley, so their success was not 100%. There does not appear to be any fire in that area right now.

Hidden Ridge Road in the town of Jamul: this is about 8 miles east of our home. To the best of my knowledge, that area has not had any burns yet – but it is quite close to Jamul Highlands, where there are quite a few hotspots burning right now. So long as the winds stay down, I'm quite optimistic that that area will remain undamaged.

Several people asked general questions about the town of Jamul and the Steele Canyon area. So far as I know, the town of Jamul has not lost any homes, but there are several hotspots currently burning in the Jamul Highlands area. Steele Canyon I know less about, but I have not heard any news reports about damage there – just that there was lots of firefighting activity there. Also, we know that the Millar Ranch Road area was entirely engulfed in fire (though the firefighters somehow managed to save every home there, we've heard). Millar Ranch Road is just a short distance west of where Steele Canyon High School is, and also just west of the intersection of 94 and Steele Canyon Road.

To the other people who wrote with specific questions: I'm sorry, but I just don't know anything about the areas you've asked about. That's neither good news or bad news; I've been focused almost completely on our area, and ignoring almost everything else I've heard.

Watching from Chula Vista...

The photos at right show the view this morning from Lyons Peak this morning. About an hour ago the fire moved right through the peak – at one point we could see flames lapping at the towers and buildings up there. Amazingly, we never lost the camera feed, and it's still working fine!

The top photo (click to enlarge) shows the view east, toward Jamul. The smoke so obscures things that we can't really tell anything about conditions away from the peak.

The bottom photo shows the view north, toward our home. Again, we can't really tell much for sure – except that there is no major fire in that direction.

What is giving us more comfort at the moment is the latest MODIS satellite thermal imagery. This is the bottom image at right (again, click to enlarge). I believe this data is from roughly 4 AM this morning. The red hatched circles show hotspots detected on that pass. The orange ones are hotspots detected not on this pass, but within the past 24 hours, and the black ones are older than that.

I'm blogging from a Mac, and I don't know how to annotate pictures on it, so I haven't marked where we live on this map. The long, skinny reservoir that runs mainly east-west is Loveland Reservoir; we live about halfway between the right end of that and the MODIS splotches just below it. That works out to about 2 miles between our home and the firefront.

From news video we're watching in our friend's home, the Jamul Highlands area has several hotspots burning, but we didn't see any burned homes. The news commentator has mentioned that there were few houses damaged or lost in that area – perhaps none at all. A co-worker sent an email last night saying that all the homes on Millar Ranch Road were saved – which seems miraculous given the flames we saw there last night. The fact that the winds have died way down is greatly helping the firefighters. This gives us much hope...

Safe, and Evacuated...

Debbie and I left our house earlier this evening, after the police came knocking on doors and putting evacuation notices on gates and mailboxes. We still don't see any fire imminently threatening Lawson Valley or our home; my best theory is that the firefighters were worried about the need to evacuate Lawson Valley in a hurry if the winds shifted and threatened the valley. It may also be true that the authorities didn't realize our valley has multiple exits, as there is only one public road in and out. During fire threats, several private property owners in the valley open normally-gated private roads to help with people evacuating themselves or their animals (horses are a particular problem in our valley, as there are so many of them).

In any case, we're now snug in our friend's house in Chula Vista, along with all our animals and what other stuff we care about that we could fit in our two vehicles. Our house is still safe (we know because our answering machine answers!), and we see no immediate threat. We're hoping to be able to go back home soon, and of course we're hoping the firefighters keep the Harris Fire well away from our neighborhood.

Our best wishes to all our friends and neighbors who are evacuated with us...

Probable Evacuation...

A neighbor just called to let us know the police had been there, and were telling her that we had a mandatory evacuation. We're shutting down and preparing to leave.

Good luck everyone...

Harris Fire Update...

I just captured these two photos from the Lyons Peak cameras. They've got us feeling a bit optimistic at the moment…

Our first reason for optimism is the situation on Elena Peak (top photo). The actively burning area is much reduced over what we've seen over the past few hours. We know that aircraft are working the fire, 'cause we hear and see them going over our heads. I also hear chatter on the scanner from the CDF crews mentioning the air support frequently.

Our second reason for optimism isn't visible in these two captures: all of the fires that we could see in Deerhorn Valley are out. There were a lot of small hotspots spewing smoke just a few hours ago; now there are none. I'm certain that's due to the ground crews hard at work.

Our third reason for optimism is that we learned that the summits of our local mountains – at least the ones capped with electronic equipment and antennas – are high priorities for the firefighters. This is for the simple reason (though I never thought of it!) that their communications equipment is on those peaks. This makes us optimistic for a reason that may not be immediately obvious: the four cameras on Lyons Peak are our single best source of information about the fire. I don't believe I'd be willing to stay here with a fire this close if I didn't have the information those cameras are providing. So to know that they are a high priority for the firefighters (because they happen to be on the same towers as the CDF communications) is really good news for us.

And the fourth reason for optimism can be seen at right. This is from the camera looking west from Lyons Peak. While there is a lot of smoke in the air, the number and size of actively burning areas appears to be greatly reduced. The one sour note is that the smoke plume in the distance, on the west or northwest side of San Miguel Mountain, looks a bit bigger than it did a few hours ago.

Debbie and I are feeling very lucky at this point. We've had (and continue to have) some anxious times, but nothing like what our evacuated friends, co-workers, and so many other San Diegans have had. We know from our own experience in past evacuations that it is just agonizing to not know what the situation with your home is…

Harris Fire Update...

The web site where I get the MODIS satellite thermal imagery has been up and down all morning, but I managed to capture it an hour or so ago (at right, click to enlarge). I can't tell for sure how old the satellite data is; it could be as much as 8 hours old. The red circles are the most recent hot spots; the orange the hot spots seen up to 24 hours ago, and the black hot spots more than 24 hours old.

The green dot is where our home is, the yellow dot where my niece (who is going to USD) lives. The area I've circled in purple is the Barrett Canyon/Barrett Dam/Elena Peak area, the flank of the fire we are most concerned about for our own home's safety. The area I've circled in blue is the San Miguel Mountain area. For those of you not familiar with our area, this small mountain is a prominent peak near the town of Spring Valley, topped with a large number of antennas providing all kinds of services (including TV and radio) to much of San Diego County. This mountain burned over last night, apparently destroying all the antennas and associated electronics. Also on the flanks of that same mountain is a very large electrical substation, providing a substantial fraction of the power to San Diego County – this also burned over and was destroyed, according to news reports we watched this morning. The fire on this mountain is greatly reduced (again, according to news reports), both by Mother Nature being nice to us and because of the efforts of the firefighters (especially helicopter crews dropping water).

What is most dramatic about this data, of course, is the sheer scope of the fires hitting us here. Our local news stations are reporting well over 1,000 homes lost (500 in the Fallbrook area alone), and over 200,000 acres burned. The mayor of San Diego City has been saying since yesterday that this fire is worse than the Cedar Fire four years ago; for all of us who lived through that fire, such an assessment borders on the incredible. In one way, our current fires are far less awful than the Cedar fire: the loss of life and number of serious injuries is far lower. We are most thankful for that…

Harris Fire Update...

The photo at right (click to enlarge it) is stitched together from three of the cameras on Lyons Peak (E, S, and W, left-to-right). This panorama shows the entire northern flank of the Harris Fire, from the Barrett Dam area on the left to San Miguel Mountain on the right. I'm sure this looks bad to anyone seeing it – but there's actually some good news visible in these photos.

The first bit of good news is that the winds have died down. Earlier the smoke from each fire was blowing right along the ground (along with the embers spreading the fire). Now the smoke rises, and since I captured these photos that has become even more dramatic. Looming in our southern sky now is a large, ugly smoke plume that looks way too close. If it wasn't for these cameras showing me where the fires are, I'd think they were much closer…

The second bit of good news is that the number of individual hot spots is way, way down – and the intensity of those remaining is also way down. I can't be sure why that is – could be just good luck and lighter winds, or it could be the efforts of the firefighters – but whatever the cause, I'd judge the immediate threat to us to be considerably lower than the early morning hours this morning.

Lawson Valley Update...

Debbie and I are fine, and still in our home in Lawson Valley. I'm feeling a bit more optimistic than earlier this morning – the winds have largely died down, and we hear fixed-wing tankers overhead moving toward the north flank of the Harris Fire that threatens us. Also we have finished our packing and are ready to leave, if need be, with about 15 minutes notice.

I'll be resuming my updates very shortly. But first, I have to say that we have been overwhelmed by the good wishes and offers of help from both our friends and people who are complete strangers and just happened to read my blog. If we have to leave, we must have 50 possible places to go! And that's not even mentioning all the offers of assistance with trucks, places for our animals, etc. Thank you, one and all – it's very heartwarming and comforting to know that help is available if we need it.

One last note: many people have written to thank me for “my” cameras on Lyons Peak. You all should know that those are not my cameras – they belong to HPWREN, which you can read all about at the link at the top of my camera page. All I did was to arrange the feeds on a single page, and to overlay them with place name markers…the HPWREN folks deserve the credit for providing the San Diego community with this great resource.

Fire Update...

Just a short message, folks, as Debbie and I are going to resume packing. While there still doesn't appear to be an imminent threat to our home, the north flank of the Harris Fire moved inexorably closer to us during the night. It overran parts of Deerhorn Valley, cresting the White Mountain/Mother Grundy Peak areas. The branch that ran up Barrett Creek appears to have reached the dam, and moved westward, up and over Elena Peak. All of these are several miles from our home, but all of them are a mile or so closer than yesterday. Not comforting at all. Worse, when the winds die down (and that is forecast for today), the fire will be able to move more quickly in our direction – and the fire crews are desparately short of resources and have been working (in some cases) for 36 hours with scarcely a break.

We're packing, with our fingers crossed, hoping that it is an unnecessary activity. Best wishes to all…