Wednesday, August 1, 2012
The Wrong Lesson...
Bruce Schneier has a nice piece up on CNN (of all places!), all about drawing the wrong lessons from horrific events. This was prompted by the Aurora shootings, of course...
More Curiosity...
U.K. colleague Paul H. sends along this nice BBC piece and the animation below:
And here's another variation, with William Shatner:
And here's another variation, with William Shatner:
Milton Friedman...
Doug S. wrote to ask for my thoughts on Dr. Milton Friedman. He didn't say, but I assume what prompted him was that yesterday was the 100th anniversary of economist Dr. Friedman's birth. There was a veritable blizzard of Milton Friedman centenary commemoratives yesterday. He died almost six years ago, at age 94, having lived long enough to see many, many fruits of his intellect.
What are my thoughts about him? Dr. Friedman is one of my heroes, quite simply. His politics were essentially libertarian, largely in correspondence with my own, and I believe that was a result of his study and observation of economics – where he frequently and eloquently pointed out the negative effects of government interference. His economic writings and advice were strong influence on two generations of governments. In the U.S. this was most notable in President Reagan's administration. He also worked with foreign governments, most famously in Chile in the '70s.
I had the privilege of watching Dr. Friedman's economic theories actually being put into practice in a modern country. This happened in Estonia, starting in 1991 when Estonia won back its independence from the disintegrating Soviet Union. Three successive companies I worked for from the early 1990s through 2005 had software development subsidiaries in Tallinn, Estonia (and also nearby St. Petersburg, Russia), and in that period I made many trips over there. During those trips I traveled extensively all over the country, met hundreds of people in all walks of life, and made some lifelong friends. It's fair to say that I got to know the country quite well.
In 1992, Mart Laar became the first elected Prime Minister of Estonia after they regained their independence. In the early '90s, Estonia was a nearly unknown destination. On one of my trips, I was invited to an informal dinner at the U.S. embassy put on by our trade representative to introduce Mr. Laar to the U.S. business people already there (with the obvious objective of encouraging more business, which Estonia desperately needed). I had a chance to speak with Mr. Laar for a few minutes; he was very interested in businesses developing intellectual property, seeing them as the big future opportunity for Estonia (as opposed to manufacturing). I was astonished at his detailed understanding of the software development business, and especially at his understanding that Estonia had a very valuable resource in their large, well-educated group of software engineers – no matter what those engineers earned. He (correctly) saw their then-low salaries as a temporary matter, and insignificant to their attractiveness in the long run.
That conversation provoked me into doing a bit of research on Mr. Laar, and in that research I learned of the large influence that Dr. Friedman had had on his economic and political thinking. This influence wasn't actually hidden at all – Mr. Laar frequently quoted or otherwise invoked the thinking of Dr. Friedman. But more importantly, he actually drove some of Dr. Friedman's most important ideas to implementation. Probably the most famous example of this (but far from the only one) is Estonia's flat income tax, constructed in exactly the way Dr. Friedman proposed. It is widely acknowledged to be the single most important driver of Estonia's economic success, earning it the nickname of the “Baltic Tiger”.
I long for the day – that happy day! – when the U.S. will actually put the advice of its preeminent economist to work in our own country. I do believe that day will come. The only question is whether it comes via the ballot box or via a revolution of some kind...
What are my thoughts about him? Dr. Friedman is one of my heroes, quite simply. His politics were essentially libertarian, largely in correspondence with my own, and I believe that was a result of his study and observation of economics – where he frequently and eloquently pointed out the negative effects of government interference. His economic writings and advice were strong influence on two generations of governments. In the U.S. this was most notable in President Reagan's administration. He also worked with foreign governments, most famously in Chile in the '70s.
I had the privilege of watching Dr. Friedman's economic theories actually being put into practice in a modern country. This happened in Estonia, starting in 1991 when Estonia won back its independence from the disintegrating Soviet Union. Three successive companies I worked for from the early 1990s through 2005 had software development subsidiaries in Tallinn, Estonia (and also nearby St. Petersburg, Russia), and in that period I made many trips over there. During those trips I traveled extensively all over the country, met hundreds of people in all walks of life, and made some lifelong friends. It's fair to say that I got to know the country quite well.
In 1992, Mart Laar became the first elected Prime Minister of Estonia after they regained their independence. In the early '90s, Estonia was a nearly unknown destination. On one of my trips, I was invited to an informal dinner at the U.S. embassy put on by our trade representative to introduce Mr. Laar to the U.S. business people already there (with the obvious objective of encouraging more business, which Estonia desperately needed). I had a chance to speak with Mr. Laar for a few minutes; he was very interested in businesses developing intellectual property, seeing them as the big future opportunity for Estonia (as opposed to manufacturing). I was astonished at his detailed understanding of the software development business, and especially at his understanding that Estonia had a very valuable resource in their large, well-educated group of software engineers – no matter what those engineers earned. He (correctly) saw their then-low salaries as a temporary matter, and insignificant to their attractiveness in the long run.
That conversation provoked me into doing a bit of research on Mr. Laar, and in that research I learned of the large influence that Dr. Friedman had had on his economic and political thinking. This influence wasn't actually hidden at all – Mr. Laar frequently quoted or otherwise invoked the thinking of Dr. Friedman. But more importantly, he actually drove some of Dr. Friedman's most important ideas to implementation. Probably the most famous example of this (but far from the only one) is Estonia's flat income tax, constructed in exactly the way Dr. Friedman proposed. It is widely acknowledged to be the single most important driver of Estonia's economic success, earning it the nickname of the “Baltic Tiger”.
I long for the day – that happy day! – when the U.S. will actually put the advice of its preeminent economist to work in our own country. I do believe that day will come. The only question is whether it comes via the ballot box or via a revolution of some kind...
Tuesday, July 31, 2012
Eastern Europe?
The Economist has some ideas about naming the various bits of Europe. My favorite: “Solvent Europe”, which Estonia is part of...
The World She's A-Changing...
The newspaper business' traditional business model was a fairly simple one: you created a newspaper with content that people found compelling, and you sold advertising space in that newspaper to businesses who wanted to reach the people reading your newspaper. In most cases, it didn't really matter if people actually bought your newspaper, as the revenue from advertising absolutely dwarfed the subscription revenue. In fact, it was common for all the subscription revenue to go to third-party distribution services (e.g., the paperboy and his supply chain) and not to the newspaper at all.
The advent of online advertising (can you spell Google?) and the concurrent decline in newspaper readership has drastically changed all this. Now comes word that in the first quarter of this year, the group of newspapers whose flagship is the New York Times has passed a significant milestone: they now make more money from subscriptions than they do from advertising. This change is almost entirely due to declining advertising revenuel; subscription revenue (including online subscription revenue) has inched up but slightly. This is the brave new business world the newspapers are trying – and largely failing – to navigate. Much gnashing of teeth occurs amongst the progressivati over this. Personally, I just take some satisfaction in the fact that the marketplace is working...
The advent of online advertising (can you spell Google?) and the concurrent decline in newspaper readership has drastically changed all this. Now comes word that in the first quarter of this year, the group of newspapers whose flagship is the New York Times has passed a significant milestone: they now make more money from subscriptions than they do from advertising. This change is almost entirely due to declining advertising revenuel; subscription revenue (including online subscription revenue) has inched up but slightly. This is the brave new business world the newspapers are trying – and largely failing – to navigate. Much gnashing of teeth occurs amongst the progressivati over this. Personally, I just take some satisfaction in the fact that the marketplace is working...
Reminder: the Seven Minutes of Curiousity...
This coming Sunday night is when Curiousity faces its seven minutes of terror as it lands on Mars. I'll be staying up (very late for me!) to watch the coverage...
Mr. Watts is On a Roll!
Anthony Watts is a prominent anthropogenic global warming skeptic, and his web site Watts Up With That is a prime source of information for the larger community of skeptics. Mr. Watts just released (on Sunday) a scientific study that brilliantly copies the style of another study just released on Saturday by a non-skeptic. By using the same methods already widely accepted in the climate science community, Mr. Watts makes it impossible for them to simply dismiss his work as some amateur, funded-by-Koch “junk science”. And indeed, Mr. Watts' study is already being widely reported in the lamestream media. The climate community won't like his paper's results, though: he shows, very convincingly, that over half of the warming shown in the accepted studies comes from measurement error and not actual warming. Once you remove the measurement error, the warming is solidly in the range of what's explainable by ordinary climatic variation.
Opinion polls have been showing a trend toward increasing skepticism of anthropogenic global warming amongst ordinary citizens worldwide. In most countries the skeptics now outnumber the “believers” (though in most cases the “don't knows” outnumber skeptics and believers combined). The wide press coverage of Mr. Watts' paper should help accelerate that trend – especially because it skewers one of the most often-cited foundations of the IPCC reports: the historical temperature records. Nice work, Mr. Watts...
Opinion polls have been showing a trend toward increasing skepticism of anthropogenic global warming amongst ordinary citizens worldwide. In most countries the skeptics now outnumber the “believers” (though in most cases the “don't knows” outnumber skeptics and believers combined). The wide press coverage of Mr. Watts' paper should help accelerate that trend – especially because it skewers one of the most often-cited foundations of the IPCC reports: the historical temperature records. Nice work, Mr. Watts...
LBJ Orders Some Slacks...
Lyndon Baines Johnson (aka “LBJ”) was the U.S. president in the years I was a teenager (1963 - 1969). In my memory he's closely associated with the rise of the welfare state, the Vietnam war, corrupt politics, and his use of the space program for publicity. While it wasn't so obvious at the time, when our news was filtered by Democrat-friendly news media, history's hindsight has made it very clear that LBJ was a salty character. Private recordings catch him using language I only learned once I joined the U.S. Navy, and amongst his intimates he was famous for his rough, “earthy” verbal manner.
Here's a recording of LBJ ordering some slacks from the Haggar company in Texas. It's a great illustration of LBJ's natural manner, and nicely animated in the video:
Here's a recording of LBJ ordering some slacks from the Haggar company in Texas. It's a great illustration of LBJ's natural manner, and nicely animated in the video:
Monday, July 30, 2012
Doctor Says...
Via my mom, who says a doctor friend sent it to her:
When I was young my intent was to go to medical school. The entrance exam included several questions that would determine eligibility. One of the questions was “Rearrange the letters ‘P N E S I’ to spell out an important part of the human body that is more useful when erect.” Those of us who spelled ‘SPINE’ became doctors. The rest ended up in Congress...
Eyjafjallajökull...
Eyjafjallaj̦kull is the Icelandic volcano that erupted in 2010, disrupting air traffic and spewing immense amounts of ash, carbon dioxide, and sulphuric acid into the atmosphere. The appearance of the eruption is magnificently captured in this photo Рfrom APOD, of course.
Sunday, July 29, 2012
Toyota Sequoia: 0, Grizzly Bear: 1...
Much more here and here...
How Many Guns in the United States?
This question came to me as I was pondering the consequences of a disarmed citizenry. It occurred to me that I had no idea how many people had how many guns. Most people I know here in the San Diego area do not own a gun, and probably wouldn't under just about any circumstance. It's far easier to get illicit drugs here than it is a concealed carry permit, so I know there aren't too many citizens packing heat on the street. So I did a little research, and came up with a Wikipedia article on the guns per capita (by country), and this Washington Post article with gun ownership rates per household (by state).
If you accept the 88.8 per 100 residents gun ownership rate for the U.S., then there are roughly 275 million privately-owned guns in the U.S. That's a lot of guns, and personally I find that very comforting. I suspect that number only includes legally owned guns, so it's probably on the low side.
The households with guns rate varies widely by state, from 3.8% of Washington, D.C. households to 59.7% of Wyoming households. In California, the rate is 21.3% – and in Idaho (where it's likely we're headed) the rate is 55.3%. It's easy to pick out the strong correlation between the lefty states and low gun ownership rates, and vice versa.
If this year's elections keep us on the train to Progressive hell, I think the likelihood of Greek-style “youth riots” in our cities goes up dramatically. If and when that happens, I want to be far from any big city, and surrounded by solid citizens with guns. I love the mountains of San Diego County...but they don't meet these criteria...
If you accept the 88.8 per 100 residents gun ownership rate for the U.S., then there are roughly 275 million privately-owned guns in the U.S. That's a lot of guns, and personally I find that very comforting. I suspect that number only includes legally owned guns, so it's probably on the low side.
The households with guns rate varies widely by state, from 3.8% of Washington, D.C. households to 59.7% of Wyoming households. In California, the rate is 21.3% – and in Idaho (where it's likely we're headed) the rate is 55.3%. It's easy to pick out the strong correlation between the lefty states and low gun ownership rates, and vice versa.
If this year's elections keep us on the train to Progressive hell, I think the likelihood of Greek-style “youth riots” in our cities goes up dramatically. If and when that happens, I want to be far from any big city, and surrounded by solid citizens with guns. I love the mountains of San Diego County...but they don't meet these criteria...
Two Economic Leading Indicators...
...and both are pointing down, strongly. Dang. Looks like we might not be headed for a recovery just yet...
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)