Puzzler...

Well, 11 of 14 people got last week's puzzler right – you can build an entire computer using nothing more than two-input NAND gates (and actually, you can build one from two-input NOR gates as well). The fact that so many of my readers knew this answer certifies my audience as being mostly comprised of fairly extreme geeks...

This week's puzzler is back to history – science history...

What was the last name of the scientist who (in the early 1900s) was notoriously associated with the notion that acquired characteristics of an organism could be inherited? This scientist's views persuaded the leader of a major country, and caused Darwinian inheritance to be officially banned there for many years.

No fair googling!

Be Afraid: PCTs...

From the anti-market liberal minds that control the California Assembly comes this nanny-state gem of a proposal:

What should be controversial in the proposed revisions to Title 24 is the requirement for what is called a "programmable communicating thermostat" or PCT. Every new home and every change to existing homes' central heating and air conditioning systems will required to be fitted with a PCT beginning next year following the issuance of the revision. Each PCT will be fitted with a "non-removable " FM receiver that will allow the power authorities to increase your air conditioning temperature setpoint or decrease your heater temperature setpoint to any value they chose. During "price events" those changes are limited to +/- four degrees F and you would be able to manually override the changes. During "emergency events" the new setpoints can be whatever the power authority desires and you would not be able to alter them.

In other words, the temperature of your home will no longer be yours to control. Your desires and needs can and will be overridden by the state of California through its public and private utility organizations. All this is for the common good, of course.

Some further research I did shows that these proposed changes would apply even to homes running “off-grid” (on their own electricity, from solar or otherwise). If this actually makes it into the building codes, the part of California where I live (the chaparral of San Diego County) could be rendered practically uninhabitable in the summertime – temperatures here routinely cross 100°F, and we commonly exceed 105°F.

This proposal is the direct consequence of the anti-market politics in Sacremento. Our government insists on regulating the electrical market, and on impeding the construction of new generating capacity. The result is very predictable: artificially low electricity prices have encouraged greater consumption – and the lack of new generating capacity means that the demand now exceed the supply. The nanny-state solution: enforced restrictions, in the form of PCTs, rolling blackouts, and other such draconian “solutions”. The market, if they just left it alone, would take care of this very nicely: increased consumption would encourage new generating capacity, and if demand exceeded supply prices would rise until that stopped. That's how markets work – if they're left alone by the flippin' government.

I'm getting really, really tired of the government telling me how to live my life and how to spend my money…

Dumbing Down California...

Some wags would say it isn't possible to dumb down California any more than it already is. And others (including myself) would argue that the surest way to stop any useful neural activity in a young American is to send them off to college. Nonetheless, I find this quite disturbing (WSJ$):

The world gets more competitive every day, so why would California's education elites want to dumb down their public university admissions standards? The answer is to serve the modern liberal piety known as "diversity" while potentially thwarting the will of the voters.

The University of California Board of Admissions is proposing to lower to 2.8 from 3.0 the minimum grade point average for admission to a UC school. That 3.0 GPA standard has been in place for 40 years. Students would also no longer be required to take the SAT exams that test for knowledge of specific subjects, such as history and science.

UC Board of Admissions Chairman Mark Rashid says that, under this new system of "comprehensive review," the schools "can make a better and more fair determination of academic merit by looking at all the students' achievements." And it is true that test scores and grades do not take full account of the special talents of certain students. But the current system already leaves slots for students with specific skills, so if you think this change is about admitting more linebackers or piccolo players, you don't understand modern academic politics.

This is just one more example of how American liberals are chipping away at what has made America the world's greatest democracy. Personally I can't fathom it, but somehow merit and responsibility have become anathema to American liberals, and symbol is everything. In this case, the symbol of a college degree – even if rendered worthless by being dumbed down – is more important to them than any actual accomplishment.

And they don't mind defying American voters to impose their ideology. As the WSJ article later points out, this action is clearly an attempt to circumvent the voters of California, who overwhelmingly approved Proposition 209, restoring academic merit as the admission standard to the UC system.

Hillary is right: it's time for a change. But not the change she has in mind. We need to throw all the entrenched politicians out, and start over with a new bunch. It's hard to imagine how the new ones could be any worse than those we have now…

Technical Note...

As previously noted, my web server (which hosts the Lawson Valley Weather page and the Lyons Peak Camera sites, amongst many others) is down. I had a chance to troubleshoot it yesterday, and the prognosis is grim: the computer the web server runs on is as dead as the proverbial doornail.

So I have a choice: I can either buy and configure a new computer (a pain in the patoot and expensive), or I can use a hosting service (easier, but expensive and with limitations on capabilities), or I can use a new-fangled approach called “HaaS” (Hardware as a Service). I've been reading a lot recently about one particular Haas (Amazon Web Services), and I've decided to go that route. The cost will be about the same as my current DSL cost, and I won't have to purchase, maintain, or configure any hardware.

That's the good news. The bad news is that I have a lot of things to learn about, and some code to write, and all in my none-too-abundant spare time – so this project is going to take a while, probably a couple of months. And those web sites will be down in the meantime…

You Decide...

I hope Warren at Climate Skeptic will forgive me for stealing his entire post:

The chart below is from the Cryosphere Today and shows the sea ice anomaly for the short period of time (since 1979) we have been able to observe it by satellite. The chart is large so you need to click the thumbnail below to really see it:

OK, now looking at the anomaly in red, what do you see:

1. A trend in sea ice consistent with a 100+ year warming trend?
2. A sea ice extent that is remarkably stable except for an anomaly over the last three years which now appears to be returning to normal?

The media can only see #1. I may be crazy, but it sure looks like #2 to me.

The question of whether Warren is crazy is, of course, completely separate from this question. But on this one, I agree with him completely…

More Guns, Less Crime...

One of the more consistent liberal memes is the idea that gun control will lead to more crimes. The consistent conservative/libertarian response has been that if guns are illegal, only the criminals will have guns. The preponderance of the evidence favors the conservative/libertarian position: in every jurisdiction where ordinary citizens are free (or relatively free) to carry concealed weapons, crime rates – including death and injury by gunfire – are lower than otherwise.

Michigan's experience now joins that evidence:

Six years after new rules made it much easier to get a license to carry concealed weapons, the number of Michiganders legally packing heat has increased more than six-fold.

But dire predictions about increased violence and bloodshed have largely gone unfulfilled, according to law enforcement officials and, to the extent they can be measured, crime statistics.

The incidence of violent crime in Michigan in the six years since the law went into effect has been, on average, below the rate of the previous six years. The overall incidence of death from firearms, including suicide and accidents, also has declined.

San Diego County Sheriff Bill Kolendar has made it nearly impossible for ordinary citizens to get concealed carry permits. A new sheriff will be elected this year – let's make certain that the sheriff we elect commits to start issuing concealed carry permits again in San Diego County, with only reasonable restrictions.

The criminals in San Diego County need to understand that the people around them are carrying weapons…

Misreporting...

Several of my readers have recently sent me a link to a very interesting report (American War and Military Operations Casualties: Lists and Statistics) by the Congressional Research Service (CRS). These CRS reports are not usually available to the public (that's a whole 'nother story!), but the Federation of American Scientists makes a large number of them available on a section of its web site, without permission (and hurrah for them!).

The chart at above right is drawn from the report; it compares casualties from various conflicts the U.S. has fought in since 1900. This chart shows clearly just how low the casualties from the war on terror have been, as compared to every other previous conflict – something you never would have guessed if you are too young to have lived through any of them, hadn't read much history, and believed what the lamestream media told you over the past four years.

Table after table in this report put the lie to many of the allegations and insinuations of the lamestream media's reporting on the war on terror – the idea that minorities are disproportionately represented in the casualties, the notion that casualty rates were unreasonably high, the smear that our volunteer forces are stupid and uneducated, and the lie that America's poor are bearing the brunt of the war's casualties. Read the report. Think about what the lamestream media has been feeding you. Then cancel your newspaper subscriptions, your magazine subscriptions, and stop watching the boob tube – for they are lying to you every single day, by commission or omission…

Wet Chaparral...

At right is a graph showing the rainfall in Lawson Valley over the past few days. The storm total of 5.85" (about 15 cm) is still hard for us to believe – it's been five or six years since we've seen anything like that here.

Yesterday as I drove to work, I was delighted to see that Lawson Creek was flowing, and flowing strongly, with muddy water because of all the new sediment eroded by the heavy rain. On the way home, the water was still flowing strongly (though abated slightly), but now almost clear. Our creeks are all intermittent, drying up every summer. But the past few years have been very dry, and even in our rainy season the creeks have hardly flowed at all. I hope this is a portent of a very wet year, as we surely could use it...

The rains lasted for about 50 hours, with an average rate of just over a tenth inch per hour. That's actually quite intense for this area, though it might not sound like it to someone from another part of the world. Debbie and I once experienced a rain storm that averaged two inches per hour for six hours (in Hilo, Hawai'i) – now that was an intense rain storm!

Random Notes...

No, I have not disappeared from the face of the earth – I've just been busy!

The current rain storm has brought us sustained gentle rain, exactly what we've been needing so badly. I just checked my rain gauge – we're at 3.27 inches for storm total so far, and the forecast still calls for another 30 hours or so of possible rain. Wahoo!

Yes, I know that my web sites for Lawson Valley weather and the Lyons Peak cameras are down (along with several others). They're all on a server located at a friend's house some 30 miles away, and I need to physically go there to see what's wrong. No ETA for getting it fixed, as I don't know what's wrong...

And to all those people who want to know what I thought of the results from the Iowa caucuses (cauci?): I think they're irrelevant, and mostly what they did for me was to illustrate for the umpteenth time the many reasons I don't like any of the candidates. Except maybe Thompson; the more I hear from him, the more I find to like (though I've still got major reservations about him, too – most especially his support of McCain-Feingold). A pox on the whole lot!

I once read about a proposed system of voting that would give each voter the choice of either voting for the voter's favorite candidate, or against the voter's least favorite candidate. The result for each candidate would be the sum of all the for votes, minus the sum of all the against votes. The candidate with the highest score would be the winner. If that system were actually in place in the U.S., this year I'd definitely be choosing an against vote – no matter which Democratic candidate wins the primary, I'd be more worried about that candidate winning than I would be passionate about the Republican candidate (whether it was McCain, Guiliani, or Romney).

The only time I'd be in a bit of a quandary would be if somehow Huckabee or Paul got the Republican nod – but if that happened, I might be thinking about emigration. For example, suppose it turned out to be Ron Paul vs. Barack Obama? Just entertaining that thought for a moment make my head feel like exploding!

Puzzler...

Last week's puzzler asked this: at about what altitude is the air pressure half that of sea level? The answer is 18,000 feet, which almost half of the respondents got right (5 of 12), as you can see at right.

Something you may not know is that the air pressure declines exponentially as the altitude increases. For about every 18,000 feet of altitude gain, the air pressure halves – so at 36,000 feet the air pressure is about 1/4 that at sea level, at 54,000 feet it's about 1/8 of sea level, and so on.

This week's puzzler is about the early history of a technology that is ubiquitous today: the digital computer. It is entirely possible to build a digital computer from a single logic component. Before integrated circuits made all sorts of logic components cheap and easy, there were some advantages (especially for maintenance) in having a computer built from such a simple set of components. One of the small computers I worked on in the Navy was made this way. What is one of the logic components from which you can build an entire computer?

Quote of the Day...

From Coyote Blog:

First and foremost, the state of California demonstrates itself to be just as financially incompetent as any condo-flipping doctor who now finds himself stuck with a bunch of mortgages he can't pay.

He's talking about this list of figures, showing how much money the state of California has spent annually, in 2007 dollars, per citizen:

1990-1991: $2,755
1995-1996: $2,470
2000-2001: $3,558
2005-2006: $3,416
2007-2008: $3,767

Just since 1990, state spending has increased by some 37% – a huge expansion of state government, and the financial engine behind “Nannifornia”. Schwarzenegger – who campaigned as a fiscal conservative – is trying to break all records for raising state expenditures. He's on the verge of succeeding in this effort.

Maybe Jamul should secede...

Needless Complexity...

One of the many challenges in software development is avoiding complexity that serves no good purpose. As a particular program matures, and more programmers work on it, the almost inescapable tendency is for more and more of this needless complexity to be introduced. This happens for lots of reasons – new programmers working on code that they don't understand well (and therefore don't realize that there are simple ways to do things), programmers thinking in complex ways about problems that are actually simple, programmers not thinking a design through, etc. There are some patterns: sophisticated programmers with heads full of academic knowledge about algorithms and systems analysis will often make complexity mountains out of complexity molehills; their deep understanding somehow leads them to ignore (or miss) opportunities for simplification. Mind you, I'm as vulnerable to these things as the next programmer – I'm observing here a phenomenon that is almost universal in my own experience. However, the “strength” of the tendency varies radically from individual to individual – some engineers have a real talent for finding simple solutions; others have a real talent for finding complexity even in areas where most engineers see the simple solution.

I just read an interesting essay on this very subject, by Ryan Tomayko. It's called Insects and Entropy, and here's a sample (but do go read the whole thing!):

Right before the class ended the dumb kid asked Jon to take a look at his insect. Jon had to fight the urge to laugh out loud when he saw that the entire insect was a mere 25 lines of code that barely made it through the compiler and with some lines having no chance of even being executed. The dumb kid had not even configured his insect's basic set of traits but had left them at the professor provided defaults.

Looking more closely, Jon found that the insect was programmed to do the same thing every time it had a turn to move:

1. Rotate 90 degrees.
2. Attack.

Turn and then attack. That's it? Jon asked, to which the dumb kid replied, Do you think I'll pass?

Jon tried to give the dumb kid some ideas on making his insect more advanced but the dumb kid wasn't interested. Jon decided that the dumb kid would most assuredly not pass.

The next day the competition was on. The professor loaded up the simulation program and everyone hooked their insects into the system. The dumb kid was late and then couldn't figure out how to get his insect loaded up. Jon helped him out while mumbling something about futility...

Benazir Bhutto...

Politics in Pakistan are amongst the most bizarre in the world; even the locals appear amazed at the twists and turns it takes. This morning one of the most visible people in Pakistani politics was assassinated: Benazir Bhutto. Herself the daughter of a Pakistani prime minister (executed after being convicted of ordering the killing of a political opponent), she was twice elected Pakistan's prime minister – and twice ejected from office and sent into exile. She had returned to Pakistan just two months ago, to run for a third term as prime minister, against current prime minister (and thugocrat) Musharrif. You can read much more about her on Wikipedia.

I don't have any knowledge of who is responsible for her assassination, but she had plenty of enemies who might want her out of the way. For starters, there's Musharrif, a thugocrat who is quite used to employing violence as a political tool, and who has many powerful supporters greatly indebted to him. Then there's the Muslim hardliners, with which Pakistan abounds – they detested Ms. Bhutto, both for her “bad example” for Muslim women (she was far too uppity and independent for them), and for her stated intent of running Al Qaeda, Bin Laden, and any other mad mullahs out of Pakistan on the proverbial rail. It seems likely that one of these two groups carried out the assassination…

Where does this leave Pakistan? So far as I know, Ms. Bhutto was the only credible opposition to Musharrif – so barring some political miracle, the thug-in-chief will likely be re-elected. Not good, from our perspective. But the martyrdom of Ms. Bhutto may, in fact, lead to some political miracle. Great swaths of the Pakistani public supported her, heart and soul. Who can predict how they will react to her assassination?

The region has had more than it's share of instability and uncertainty, violence and despots. Sadly, Ms. Bhutto's assassination seems of a piece with many other elements of recent history there. It would be wonderful if somehow this provoked a popular revolution that tossed both the thugs and Al Qaeda out on their ears, but I'm not holding my breath on that one. It seems much more likely, unfortunately, that what gets provoked is more violence and heartache in a region that has all too much of it already…

Christmas Torture...

It's a Christmas tradition around here – it's the day we torture our dogs by dressing them up in humiliating dog costumes and force them to stand still for what must seem like hours to them, just so we can take a few photos. But it's just possible that the dog treats afterwards make it all worthwhile for them…

Today our long-suffering pooches were all asleep in the livingroom, which is all warm and cozy because of the fire in the woodstove. They were roused from their lazy, happy naps and forced into these silly costumes. How rude!

The looks on their faces says it all. Mo'i (the rightmost in the group photos) is particularly aggreived. Miki (the leftmost in the group photos, and the one in all the single photos) was the star of today's photo shoot. He was exceptionally good – Debbie would tell him to “sit!” and “stay!”, and for 10 or 15 minutes at a time, that's exactly what he would do. His face is also very expressive, with his little confused and wondering expression…

Merry Christmas, everyone, from the tortured dogs in the chaparral!

Christmas Eve Dinner...

Debbie and I love to cook, and of course the holidays provide us with a nice opportunity to go overboard. This evening we'll be dining with our close friends Jim and Michelle, and we've been working on our feast all day long. Today was the “day of chopping” – everything we made required several herbs or vegetables to be chopped!

For our appetizers, we'll be having crab cakes made with Dungeness crab and a southwestern-style recipe with fresh thyme, Italian parsley, and ripe red bell pepper adding flavor and color. The crab cakes are chilling in the refrigerator as I post this entry. We also made an herbed tartar sauce to accompany it, and this turned out really well – both Debbie and I like this better than any tartar sauce we've ever had.

Our second course is a lovely soup; it's all done, we just have to heat it up. The soup is based on chicken stock, butternut squash, apples, and onions. It's heavily flavored with herbs, especially fresh thyme. We're planning to serve this with a dollop of sour cream in each bowl...

The entrée is smoked ham with a honey-citrus glaze. We bought a ten pound ham, so we'll have plenty of leftover sandwich meat! Along with the ham we'll have sautéed mushrooms (oyster, shiitake, and browntops) in an herbed wine sauce; the primary flavors are from fresh rosemary and thyme. For “bread”, we'll have something new to us: an odd kind of bread called “spoon bread”, based on corn meal and flavored with leeks and gruyére cheese, along with basil and thyme. We'll have champagne with the meal.

If we can possibly manage a dessert after all that, we'll be having creme brulée – a simple, plain, and outrageously rich custard flavored with vanilla beans. These are supposed to have a carmelized sugar covering; you use a blow-torch to heat the sugar to just the right point. But I just discovered that I have no propane for my blow-torch, so we may be forgoing the cover, darn it…

Merry Christmas!

What He Said...

It turns out that the following is actually the distorted work of a stand-up comedian:

T. Bubba Bechtel, a part-time City Councilman from Midland , TX , was asked on a local live radio talk show the other day just what he thought of the allegations of torture of the Iraqi prisoners. His reply prompted his ejection from the studio, but to thunderous applause from the audience:

"If hooking up an Iraqi prisoner's balls to a car's battery cables will save one U.S. Marine's life, then I have just two things to say: red is positive, black is negative!"

Whatever the source, I say: “What he said!”

Given the behavior of our enemy (the fundamentalist Islamic terrorists), to me the usual arguments against torture (which I can see great merit in) don't seem to apply. They really only make sense when there is some reasonable probability that your enemy would reciprocate. In the current case, our enemy is already violating every conceivable standard of conduct in war, and shows no signs of abating. Under these circumstances, our refraining from the use of torture (however you define it) seems quite pointless to me – most especially if doing so lends our enemy any advantage whatsoever.

Undermining Jihad...

The New York Sun is reporting a fascinating development:

One of Al Qaeda's senior theologians is calling on his followers to end their military jihad and saying the attacks of September 11, 2001, were a "catastrophe for all Muslims."

In a serialized manifesto written from prison in Egypt, Sayyed Imam al-Sharif is blasting Osama bin Laden for deceiving the Taliban leader, Mullah Omar, and for insulting the Prophet Muhammad by comparing the September 11 attacks to the early raids of the Ansar warriors. The lapsed jihadist even calls for the formation of a special Islamic court to try Osama bin Laden and his old comrade Ayman al-Zawahri.

What happens to Al Qaeda when their philosophical underpinnings are yanked out? I'm not sure, but it's hard to see any way that this is bad news – and one could easily spin a very nice-sounding scenario (Al Qaeda foot-soldiers departing en masse, etc.)…

Scientific Suppression?

Here's the introduction to a report just submitted to the U.S. Senate Committee on the Environment and Public Works:

Over 400 prominent scientists from more than two dozen countries recently voiced significant objections to major aspects of the so-called "consensus" on man-made global warming. These scientists, many of whom are current and former participants in the UN IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), criticized the climate claims made by the UN IPCC and former Vice President Al Gore.

The new report issued by the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee’s office of the GOP Ranking Member details the views of the scientists, the overwhelming majority of whom spoke out in 2007. Even the some in the establishment media now appears to be taking notice of the growing number of skeptical scientists.

In October, the Washington Post Staff Writer Juliet Eilperin conceded the obvious, writing that climate skeptics "appear to be expanding rather than shrinking." Many scientists from around the world have dubbed 2007 as the year man-made global warming fears “bites the dust.” This blockbuster Senate report lists the scientists by name, country of residence, and academic/institutional affiliation. It also features their own words, biographies, and weblinks to their peer reviewed studies and original source materials as gathered from public statements, various news outlets, and websites in 2007. This new “consensus busters” report is poised to redefine the debate.

Many of the scientists featured in this report consistently stated that numerous colleagues shared their views, but they will not speak out publicly for fear of retribution. Atmospheric scientist Dr. Nathan Paldor, Professor of Dynamical Meteorology and Physical Oceanography at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, author of almost 70 peer-reviewed studies, explains how many of his fellow scientists have been intimidated.

The backlash from skeptical scientists, which I first started to notice just a few months ago, appears to be gathering steam…

Holiday Disorders...

Another one from Mike D. (thanks!):

Holiday Diagnoses:

1) Schizophrenia - Do You Hear What I Hear, the Voices, the Voices?

2) Amnesia - I Don't Remember If I'll Be Home for Christmas

3) Narcissistic - Hark the Herald Angels Sing About Me

4) Manic - Deck The Halls and Walls and House and Lawn and Streets and Stores and Office and Town and Cars and Buses and Trucks and Trees and Fire Hydrants and...

5) Multiple Personality Disorder - We Three Queens Disoriented Are

6) Paranoid - Santa Claus Is Coming to Get Us

7) Borderline Personality Disorder - You Better Watch Out, You Better Not Shout, I'm Gonna Cry, and I'll Not Tell You Why

8) Full Personality Disorder - Thoughts of Roasting You On an Open Fire

9) Obsessive Compulsive Disorder - Jingle Bells, Jingle Bells, Jingle Bells, Jingle Bells, Jingle Bells, Jingle Bells, Jingle Bells, Jingle Bells, Jingle Bells, Jingle Bells

10) Agoraphobia - I Heard the Bells on Christmas Day But Wouldn't Leave My House

11) Senile Dementia - Walking In a Winter Wonderland Miles from My House in My Slippers and Robe

12) Oppositional Defiant Disorder - I Saw Mommy Kissing Santa Claus So I Burned Down the House

13) Social Anxiety Disorder - Have Yourself a Merry Little Christmas While I Sit Here and Hyperventilate

14) Attention Deficit Disorder - We Wish You......Hey Look!! It's Snowing!!!

Supreme Court Ruling...

Forwarded by Mike D., tongue firmly in cheek (I think):

The Supreme Court has ruled that there cannot be a Nativity Scene in the United States Capital this Christmas season.

This isn't for any religious reason. They simply have not been able to find three wise men and a virgin in the Nation's Capitol.

However, there was no problem finding enough ASSES to fill the stable!