Joy of Aging...

Our friend Dick F., who (however improbably) is even older than we are, passes along these:

Two elderly gentlemen from a retirement center were sitting on a bench under a tree when one turns to the other and says: "Slim, I'm 83 years old now and I'm just full of aches and pains. I know you're about my age. How do you feel?"

Slim says, "I feel just like a newborn baby."

"Really!? Like a newborn baby!?"

"Yep. No hair, no teeth, and I think I just wet my pants."

An elderly couple had dinner at another couple's house, and after eating, the wives left the table and went into the kitchen. The two gentlemen were talking, and one said, "Last night we went out to a new restaurant and it was really great. I would recommend it very highly."

The other man said, "What's the name of the restaurant?"

The first man thought and thought and finally said, "What is the name of that flower you give to someone you love? You know...the one that's red and has thorns."

"Do you mean a rose?"

"Yes, that's the one," replied the man. He then turned towards the kitchen and yelled, "Rose, what's the name of that restaurant we went to last night?"

Couple in their nineties are both having problems remembering things. During a checkup, the doctor tells them that they're physically okay, but they might want to start writing things down to help them remember.

Later that night, while watching TV, the old man gets up from his chair. "Want anything while I'm in the kitchen?" he asks.

"Will you get me a bowl of ice cream?"

"Sure."

"Don't you think you should write it down so you can remember it?" she asks.

"No, I can remember it."

"Well, I'd like some strawberries on top, too. Maybe you should write it down, so's not to forget it?"

He says, "I can remember that. You want a bowl of ice cream with strawberries."

"I'd also like whipped cream. I'm certain you'll forget that, write it down?" she asks.

Irritated, he says, "I don't need to write it down, I can remember it! Ice cream with strawberries and whipped cream - I got it, for goodness sake!"

Then he toddles into the kitchen. After about 20 minutes, the old man returns from the kitchen and hands his wife a plate of bacon and eggs. She stares at the plate for a moment.

"Where's my toast ?"

A man was telling his neighbor, "I just bought a new hearing aid. It cost me four thousand dollars, but it's state of the art. It's perfect."

"Really," answered the neighbor . "What kind is it?"

"Twelve thirty."

A little old man shuffled slowly into an ice cream parlor and pulled himself slowly, painfully, up onto a stool. After catching his breath, he ordered a banana split. The waitress asked kindly, "Crushed nuts?"

"No," he replied, "Arthritis."

Flower Show...

My mom passed this along. When I was a young lad (in the last century), my family had a nursery, and displayed in the Philadelphia Flower Show each year.

Two little old ladies were sitting on a park bench outside the local town hall where a Flower Show was in progress. One leaned over and said to the other, "Life is so darned boring; we never have any fun anymore. For $5.00 I'd take my clothes off and streak through that stupid Flower Show!"

"You're on!" said the other old lady holding up a $5.00 bill. The first little old lady slowly fumbled her way out of her clothes and, completely nude, streaked (as fast as an old lady can) through the front door of the Flower Show.

Waiting outside, her friend soon heard a huge commotion inside the hall followed by loud applause and shrill whistling. The naked and smiling old lady came through the exit door surrounded by a cheering crowd.

"What happened?" asked her waiting friend.

"I won 1st Prize as Best Dried Arrangement!"

Dung Beetles...

Scott Adams (the Dilbert cartoonist) recently completed a new book derived from his blog. He titled it Stick to Drawing Comics, Monkey-Brain! Continuing the theme, he held a contest on his blog for the best blurbs to put on the book's slip cover. Here's the runner-up:

Like a diligent little dung beetle, Adams slogs through the online jungle searching for fresh nuggets of news to polish into his daily blog entries. Some people say you can’t polish a turd, but after reading this book, I’d say they’re just not rubbing hard enough.

There are some very creative people reading that blog! Go read the whole thing, but make sure you swallow your coffee first…

Top Country-Western Hits...

George K. passes along these top country-western hits, slightly tongue-in-cheek (I think):

How can I miss you when you won't go away.

If the phone doesn't ring, you will know its me.

When you leave me walk out backwards so I'll think your coming back.

If I shot you when I wanted to I'd be out by now.

If you won't leave me alone I'll find someone that will.

I am so miserable without you it's almost like your here.

Take me out to the corn field honey and I'll kiss you between the ears.

Odd Natural Phenomena...

These tree-climbing goats were the least odd of the whole bunch! Check ’em all out here.

Disappearing Forecast...

As I drove home from work last week, the radio news was full of stuff about the severe Santa Ana winds forecast for Tuesday (tomorrow). These winds were supposed to be just as strong as those that fanned the fires three weeks ago, but with 20° lower temperatures.

Last night and this morning, I can not find any hint of Santa Ana winds in anybody's forecast. Either I hallucinated the dire forecasts of last week, or a vast wrong-forecast conspiracy is hushing it up.

But if the net is that there will not be any Santa Ana winds this week, then I really, really don't care how or why the forecasters screwed up. Calm winds would be one more thing to give our thanks for on Thursday...

Steyn on Thanksgiving...

My long-time readers know that Mark Steyn is one of my favorite political observers. Saturday he published a fine piece on Thanksgiving, contending that the rest of the world should give thanks for America's existence. From that column:

But on this Thanksgiving the rest of the world ought to give thanks to American national sovereignty, too. When something terrible and destructive happens – a tsunami hits Indonesia, an earthquake devastates Pakistan – the United States can project itself anywhere on the planet within hours and start saving lives, setting up hospitals and restoring the water supply.

Aside from Britain and France, the Europeans cannot project power in any meaningful way anywhere. When they sign on to an enterprise they claim to believe in – shoring up Afghanistan's fledgling post-Taliban democracy – most of them send token forces under constrained rules of engagement that prevent them doing anything more than manning the photocopier back at the base.

If America were to follow the Europeans and maintain only shriveled attenuated residual military capacity, the world would very quickly be nastier and bloodier, and far more unstable. It's not just Americans and Iraqis and Afghans who owe a debt of thanks to the U.S. soldier but all the Europeans grown plump and prosperous in a globalized economy guaranteed by the most benign hegemon in history.

America, the benign hegemon. With less flowery phrase, I've contended this same thing to some of my European friends – who promptly (and predictably) deny that America is benign. When I ask them for examples of our malignity, they typically come up with hoary old chestnuts without even a grain of truth (such as the notion that Americans invaded Iraq to get their oil). Would that they could all see as clearly as Mark Steyn...

A Wrenching Little Journey...

This morning we took a short trip – just a few miles from home, but into a completely different world: Deerhorn Valley and the Mother Grundy Truck Trail, both devastated by the fires of just three weeks ago. We knew from many conversations and the news reports that many homes were destroyed in those areas, so we knew what we were going to see. Knowing didn't make it any easier.

All of the photos in this post can be expanded by clicking on them.

Everywhere we went, we saw homemade signs thanking the firefighters, and others who helped. This one is made of red plastic cups wedged into chain link fence at Rancho Jamul, along 94; we give it top marks for cleverness. These signs are all messages from the hearts of people very grateful for the many homes saved – but we even saw them in front of several homes that were destroyed. Thanks for trying, they seem to say…

First we went east on 94, then northeast on Honey Springs Road. Along that uphill stretch we saw the home at right – saved, and very grateful. I did not take any photos of destroyed homes, as I have no wish to cause any more pain for those victims, and I can imagine that some would not appreciate such photos being taken or displayed.

The trip was through a variety of situations, from completely normal and unburned to vast swathes of devastation. There are places were all the homes were burned; others where all the homes were saved (despite devastation all around). In a few places we saw most homes saved, but one or two homes burned, right in the middle of otherwise intact communities. In some places the fire burned so hot and furious that only large branches and ashes remain. In other places only the grasses and leaves were burned, and all the trees and shrubs were intact. The fire was arbitrary and capricious. Just about the only pattern we could discern were the many places where the fire fighters held a line around someone's home. I try to imagine what such a battle must be like for the men and women on the fire line, but my imagination fails me…

I saw something on this trip that I do not recall ever seeing before, though perhaps I just missed it: many rocks had a pock-marked appearance. On close inspection, they had shards popped off of them, lying on the ground underneath them. These wounded rocks were very common, and generally of very similar appearance. Although there was some variation in the size and shape of these shards, generally they were 3 or 4 inches in diameter, roughly circular, and around a quarter inch thick in their center, tapering off to sharp edges. The only mechanism for this phenomenon that I can think of is the mechanical stress of hot rock on the outside layer expanding against the cold inner rock. There are several more photos of this phenomenon below.

At one point on Mother Grundy Road we found this normally beautiful vista of Deerhorn Valley. I made this panorama from four individual photos to show what it looks like today.

In Lord of the Rings, there is a horrible character named Smaug – a dragon that wreaks terrible damage on the surrounding country, which was named the Desolation of Smaug on maps. That name seems entirely appropriate for this vista. To help orient you, the center of the photo is roughly due north from where we stood. The near peak in the center is Elena Mountain; the rocky rounded peak on the left is Lyons Peak. Lawson Peak can be seen peaking above the horizon, the rocky peak just the left of Elena Mountain.

In the burned areas, signs of life were not to be found at all – with one glaring exception. I've noted before that yucca plants were remarkable fire survivors, and they showed off that skill again in this fire. I saw numerous yucca plants in my walkabouts; many of them were already sending up green shoots to take advantage of the sunlight. None of them appeared to be dead. I have read descriptions of their adaptations for fire resistance: these adaptations include fire-resistant bases of their leaf spikes, excellent insulating properties in the woven layer of these bases around the core, and water stored in the core, protected by that layer. The leaves all burn off, leaving only the pineapple-shaped core – and that core soon sprouts new leaves. The yuccas will be the first green gems in the moonscapes left behind by the fire…

Other plants that look like they are dead are not really as damaged as they appear. Today we saw only skeletons poking out of a mat of ashes. Many of these chaparral plants, well-adapted for fire, will soon send new shoots from their roots to the surface. We know from experience that the manzanitas, lemonade-berries, and many ceanothus will soon sprout – along with many other plants. Oak trees stripped of all their leaves and twigs by the fire will generate new branches and leaves from nodes that lie deep within their wood, protected from the fire by the thick insulation that wood provided. The seeds of many chaparral plants use fire to trigger their germination. So next spring – especially if we have good rains this winter – we will see the plant life start to rebound. But it's sure hard to imagine that right now…

The rest of the images pretty much speak for themselves…

Huckabee Ad...

Mike Huckabee's new campaign ad:

Amazing Ventriloquist...

Jim M. passed these along – videos of the most amazing ventriloquist I have ever seen or heard of. Once you watch the first video, you'll see links to the others…

A Visit to Cuyamaca...

This past weekend, Debbie and I visited some places we're very familiar with: the west slope of Cuyamaca Mountain (along Boulder Creek Road), Engineer Road (along North Peak), and the Stonewall Mine area in Cuyamaca Rancho State Park. Much of these areas was burned over in the awful Cedar Fire of 2003, over four years ago. It's been tough for us to go back there since then, as the fires destroyed some of our favorite scenery in the area…

The toyon (Heteromeles arbutifolia) at right was one of many we saw along Engineer Road. The toyon is a locally common chaparral plant; we have 100 or so specimens on the 25 or so acres surrounding our home. But here they were growing in a burnt-over forest, one of the first native plants (along with ceanothus) to come back after the fire. This would seem to make them a “fire pioneer” plant. The literature I could find on the web seems a bit contradictory on this point; some said that the seedlings were often seen after a fire, but others said that the plants wouldn't become established (and I'm not sure exactly what they mean by that) until there was a closed canopy overhead. But who cares, really – they were a spot of most unexpected beauty in the monochome tones of the burned areas…

The toyon is one of the two common chaparral plants in our area that stays reliably green, even through the droughts (the other is a sumac, commonly called “lemonade berry”). However, it is often quite hidden from view. In the area around our home, it's often found under live oaks, large manzanitas, or even very large ceanothus. This habit makes it an under-appreciated chaparral plant – I suspect many property owners around here don't even know they exist! Just a short walk from our house there is a particularly fine stand of toyon, under a live oak that's about 30 feet tall. But this stand is put to shame by the specimens we saw along Engineer Road.

We saw something else there that greatly cheered me: some pine seedlings, up to a couple feet tall. This is the very first time since the Cedar Fire that I have spotted conifer seedlings in the burned area, something that I found disheartening – so I was delighted to see these little guys! We saw some later in the park, as well. If I were to guess at density, I'd say it was between 20 and 40 seedlings per acre. That sounds very low to me, but perhaps there will be more in following years…

Once we got to the Stonewall Mine area, we had another pleasant surprise: deer. Again, this was the first time we'd spotted deer up here since the Cedar Fire. Their return means that the big predators (especially the mountain lion) will return as well, or perhaps they're already back. The scene at right, taken from a point close to the mine, is a classic autumn scene in the coastal California mountains. The thick grasses always turn a golden brown then, and the winds waft a distinctive smell, much like hay. We spotted the deer in a meadow just south of the one pictured, perhaps a half mile away…

I've always loved the visual textures of these dried grasses, whether as isolated plants or en masse. I find them especially beautiful when backlit, though it's very challenging to capture that high-contrast image in a photo.

Grasses such as these are, of course, amongst the very first pioneer plants after a fire. I don't know if the plants that come up first are from existing seed that survived the fire, or if new seed somehow makes it in. We saw luxurious grass (along with perennial wildflowers) in many burnt-over areas the first spring after the fire, just four or five months afterwards. The wildflowers don't stay in large numbers, unfortunately, but the grass does – in the many natural meadows, amongst rock outcroppings, and along road cuts. These luxurious grasses seem to need something that's available only at higher altitudes (more rainfall, I suspect), as we cannot grow them near our home. If we irrigated, we'd get bazillions of weeds, so I don't even try that…

Lakes Conference Call

Lakes Entertainment recently had a conference call to talk about their Q3 financial reports. The Jamul Indian Casino project was mentioned briefly a few times; these parts are excerpted from the transcript:

Next I will discuss our project with the Jamul Indian village. Lakes has an agreement for the development and financing of a casino resort operation with the Jamul Indian Village. The Jamul tribe has a six-acre reservation on which the casino is planned to be built. Lakes has also acquired approximately 100 acres of land contiguous to the six acres of the reservation land that could be used for the casino support facilities if the land is taken into trust. Lakes and the Jamul tribe have decided to move forward with the operating a casino based solely on class 2 electronic gaming devices. The agreement between Lakes and the Jamul tribe is currently being modified to reflect the new economics of the revised smaller casino plan which will not require a compact and will not be subject to approval by the state or NIGC. Planning is underway to redesign the casino to provide for approximately 1,000 class 2 gaming devices along with 20 class 2 table games. The site has been cleared of all residents and all structures have been demolished and removed. Soil drilling in preparation for the road construction has started. We and the tribe are currently evaluating the plan to determine when the casino construction will start and when the casino operations could begin.
...
Revenue from this license fee income decreased during third quarter of 2007 compared to the third quarter of 2006 as a result of the delivery of no episodes of the professional poker tour television series in the 2007 period, versus the delivery of nine episodes of the PPT in the third quarter of 2006 and the delivery of three episodes of season five of the world poker tour television series in the third quarter of 2007 versus the delivery of one episode of season five of the WPT television series in the 2006 period. Net unrealized losses on notes receivable were $600,000 for the third quarter of 2007, compared to net unrealized gains of $5.8 million for the third quarter of 2006. The net unrealized losses in the third quarter of 2007 related to unrealized gains on Lakes' notes receivable from the Shingle Springs Band and Miwok Indians in the amount of $1.2 million and unrealized losses of $1.8 million on the Lakes notes receivable from the Jamul Indian Village.

These notes receivable are adjusted to estimated fair value based upon the current status of the related tribal casino projects. The increase in fair value of the notes receivable from the Shingle Springs tribe relates primarily to continued progress on the construction of this project which is currently within budget and on schedule. The decrease in fair value of the notes receivable from the Jamul tribe relates primarily to an increase in the discount rate which resulted from a decrease in current estimated win per unit for this project.
...
TODD EILERS: Okay. And then, let's see, I guess with respect to the balance sheet, Tim, can you break down the notes receivables by project, or at least what Shingle Springs and Jamul were for the quarter, the market value?

TIM COPE: The long-term notes?

TODD EILERS: Yes.

TIM COPE: Jamul is approximately 24 million. Shingle Springs is approximately 52 million. And Iowa's is approximately 3 million.
...
JUSTIN SEBASTIANO: Okay. And, Tim, you had mentioned that you lowered the discount rate. What are you using now for the notes receivable from the Jamul Tribe? It was 15.75% I think previously?

TIM COPE: Yes, actually increased it.

JUSTIN SEBASTIANO: Increased it, I'm sorry, right.

TIM COPE: I think it's more in the 17% range now. You understand we get this from a third-party valuation firm.
...
I have publicly stated for the last several years, and I'll say it on this phone call, that Lakes Gaming, when we become a cash flow machine in the 2009 period and out, certainly do not expect to reinvest our funds in Indian gaming. Indian gaming is certainly our major core business. We're very good at it, and we will be in it for a long time. After all, Shingle Springs doesn't open for a year and then we have a seven-year contract, so that's eight years. Jamul will keep us in there for another year after that, so even without renewals we will be a major force in Indian gaming working with our Tribes and managing those casinos for the next 10 years. That being said, as we accumulate the cash from these operations, as you know, the majority of these operations took us seven or eight years from the time we signed with the Tribe, and we invested well over $150 million. Most of the Indian opportunities out there today are of a similar or worse nature.
...
CHRIS KRUEGER: Hi. I missed a little bit of the call but on the time frame for a couple of your future projects, I heard you mention on the Jamul that the site is cleared, there's some prep work beginning and that you're evaluating the plan right now. Does that mean -- I know last quarter I think you indicated you felt the construction would begin in the first quarter of '08 and open 12 months later. Is that more maybe like the first half of '08 now or how would we look at that?

TIM COPE: Actually, the last quarter I think we said the same thing we're saying this quarter. We're continuing to work with the tribe to evaluate when we can start construction on the casino. Casino construction there will be about a 16-month, 18-month build because of the nature of the site itself. So I think the issue right now is when can we actually start the construction. And as you mentioned, we have started drilling on the road work there, which is the first piece of the project to get the road completed, so we can start breaking in the construction equipment to do the building. So we're progressing on the road work right now, and then I think it's going to be again subject to discussions with the tribe and after the first of the year when we feel we can start the casino construction.

CHRIS KRUEGER: The fires that happened out there is there any impact from that?

TIM COPE: We and the Tribe I would say were quite fortunate in that regard. All the buildings had already been removed from the reservation, so although there was some fire that came very close and on the site there's actually a -- it backs up to a church, and that church was protected from the fire so there really was no physical damage occurred.
...
JUSTIN SEBASTIANO: Just a quick follow-up. Tim, could you just run through how you're getting paid out on Jamul? From what I have, I see you have a $15 million up-front flat fee from development services, 15 million payable evenly over five years for construction services, and then 50 million payable evenly over 10 years for financing services, is this correct?

TIM COPE: Currently the agreement is all fees that we earn are earned prior to the project opening based on, as you mentioned, either oversight of construction, oversight of the development, or for providing the financing. All those fees are then spread out over the life of a 10-year contract.

JUSTIN SEBASTIANO: Okay. So -- oh, so the development service is not a $15 million up-front flat fee?

TIM COPE: No, and there's nothing paid up-front. Everything is earned up-front.

JUSTIN SEBASTIANO: Understood. So they're all paid out evenly over 10 years?

TIM COPE: That's the current plan.

JUSTIN SEBASTIANO: So under the current plan then, you're going to get paid out on the amounts -- the $80 million, I guess, regardless of what the casino does. Is that correct then?

TIM COPE: Well, no, only if it's successful. Again, it's paid out -- they can't pay us if they don't have the money, right.

JUSTIN SEBASTIANO: Well, what's considered successful? Then they just have to cover -- do they have to hit a certain threshold, and then pay you out when they hit?

TIM COPE: There's no thresholds this particular arrangement. Just cash flow.

JUSTIN SEBASTIANO: Okay. So let's say you are due $8 million in year one. If they net $8 million then you get it all, and the Tribe gets 0?

LYLE BERMAN: In theory that would be correct. In practicality, probably not.

JUSTIN SEBASTIANO: I just wanted to make sure that there is no threshold and that you guys will get paid out.

LYLE BERMAN: No threshold whatsoever.

There are some interesting nuggets of information in there, but nothing particularly surprising. It certainly doesn't sound like Lakes has written Jamul off, darn it…

Three Stories...

Mike D. passes these along. I was able to verify the first one (via the indispensable Snopes); the other two I'm not sure of:

When in England at a fairly large conference, Colin Powell was asked by the Archbishop of Canterbury if our plans for Iraq were just an example of 'empire building' by George Bush.

He answered by saying, "Over the years, the United States has sent many of its fine young men and women into great peril to fight for freedom beyond our borders. The only amount of land we have ever asked for in return is enough to bury those that did not return."

---------------

Then there was a conference in France where a number of international engineers were taking part, including French and American. During a break one of the French engineers came back into the room saying "Have you heard the latest dumb stunt Bush has done? He has sent an aircraft carrier to Indonesia to help the tsunami victims. What does he intend to do, bomb them?"

A Boeing engineer stood up and replied quietly: "Our carriers have three hospitals on board that can treat several hundred people; they are nuclear powered and can supply emergency electrical power to shore facilities; they have three cafeterias with the capacity to feed 3,000 people three meals a day, they can produce several thousand gallons of fresh water from sea water each day, and they carry half a dozen
helicopters for use in transporting victims and injured to and from their flight deck. We have eleven such ships; how many does France have?"

--------------------

A U.S. Navy Admiral was attending a naval conference that included Admirals from the U.S., English, Canadian, Australian and French Navies. At a cocktail reception, he found himself standing with a large group of officers that included personnel from most of those countries. Everyone was chatting away in English as they sipped their drinks but a French admiral suddenly complained that, 'whereas Europeans learn many languages, Americans learn only English.' He then asked, 'Why is it that we always have to speak English in these conferences rather than speaking French?'

Without hesitating, the American Admiral replied 'Maybe it's because the Brits, Canadians, Aussies and Americans arranged it so you wouldn't have to speak German.

That last story strikes home a bit for me. I've traveled a little bit in France, on weekends wrested from business trips. Being the odd sort that I am, I spent almost no time in the famous places (especially Paris!); instead, I drove about all over the countryside. Except for one locale, the attitude displayed by the French admiral in that story was completely consistent with what I ran into. Most of my interactions with the French, even in the countryside, were markedly less friendly than many other places that I've traveled.

Except for Normandy, that is. There I met quite a few people who still remember – and appreciate – what the Allies did on D-Day and afterward. Several times while visiting graveyards or monuments, locals approached me, asked if I was American, and then (upon getting a “yes”) engaged me in pleasant conversation. The older folks were happy to share their memories. I'm not sure what happened to make the rest of France generally so snooty, but whatever it is seems to have passed Normandy by…

Hillary and Margaret...

Peggy Noonan's column from last week compares Hillary Clinton and Margaret Thatcher. You won't be surprised which of them comes out on top in her estimation, but her observations, as always, are well worth reading. Here's her lead:

The story as I was told it is that in the early years of her prime ministership, Margaret Thatcher held a meeting with her aides and staff, all of whom were dominated by her, even awed. When it was over she invited her cabinet chiefs to join her at dinner in a nearby restaurant. They went, arrayed themselves around the table, jockeyed for her attention. A young waiter came and asked if they'd like to hear the specials.

Mrs. Thatcher said, "I will have beef."

Yes, said the waiter. "And the vegetables?"

"They will have beef too."

No matter how I twist my brain, I can't imagine that story working with Hillary substituted for the formidable Mrs. Thatcher…

Hillary and Elliot...

Hillary Clinton, on Governor Elliot Spitzer's plan to give New York driver's licenses to illegal aliens in the Empire State:

“I didn’t say he shouldn’t do it, nor that he should,” said Sen. Clinton, “I only said I recognize that whatever he does I can understand because George Bush makes us all do irrational things.”

She didn't really say that, but Scott Ott (of Scrappleface) has done his usual wonderful parody. In this case, he's reduced days and paragraphs of flip-flopping, triangulating, obfuscating, and mealy-mouthing to just a few words that sound exactly like her…

Potentially and Realistically...

Simi L. passes along this story (warning: put your coffee down first):

A young boy went up to his father and asked him, "Dad, what is the difference between 'potentially' and 'realistically'?"

The father thought for a moment, then answered, "Go ask your mother if she would sleep with Brad Pitt for a million dollars. Then ask your sister if she would sleep with Brad Pitt for a million dollars, and then, ask your brother if he'd sleep with Brad Pitt for a million dollars. Come back and tell me what you learn from that."

So the boy went to his mother and asked, "Would you sleep with Brad Pitt for a million dollars?"

The mother replied, "Of course, I would! We could really use that money to fix up the house and send you kids to a great university!"

The boy then went to his sister and asked, "Would you sleep with Brad Pitt for a million dollars?"

The girl replied, "Oh good heavens! I LOVE Brad Pitt and I would sleep with him in a heartbeat. Are you nuts?"

The boy then went to his brother and asked, "Would you sleep with Brad Pitt for a million dollars?"

"Of course," the brother replied. "Do you know how much a million bucks would buy?"

The boy pondered the answers for awhile and then went back to his dad. His father asked him, "Did you find out the difference between 'potentially' and 'realistically'"?

The boy replied: "Yes. 'Potentially' you and I are sitting on three million dollars, but 'realistically,' we're living with two hookers and a future congressman."

That has just enough truth about the state of our Congress to be really funny.

But sad, too, if you think about it…

Earthrise

The Japanese robotic lunar explorer Kaguya has been in a 100 km high lunar orbit for about a month, and its instrument set is operating. Amongst those instruments is an HD video camera, which captured the image at right.

For those of us old enough to remember, this is evocative of the iconic earthrise image from Apollo 8, the first manned mission to reach the vicinity of the moon.

The Japanese space program – tiny by comparison with NASA – has been beset by technical difficulties, political wrangling, and funding challenges. Nevertheless, they have accomplished a lot of good science, entirely with robotic missions, and Kaguya appears to be on track to do more of the same…

Five Lessons...

From Mike D.:

1. The Cleaning Lady

During my second month of college, our professor gave us a pop quiz. I was a conscientious student and had breezed through the questions until I read the last one:

"What is the first name of the woman who cleans the school?"

Surely this was some kind of joke. I had seen the cleaning woman several times. She was tall, dark-haired and in her 50's, but how would I know her name?

I handed in my paper, leaving the last question blank. Just before class ended, one student asked if the last question would count toward our quiz grade.

"Absolutely, " said the professor. "In your careers, you will meet many people. All are significant. They deserve your attention and care, even if all you do is smile and say "hello."

I've never forgotten that lesson. I also learned her name was Dorothy.

2. Pickup in the Rain

(Editor's note: Snopes says this story is false, but the lesson is still relevant.)

One night, at 11:30 p.m., an older African American woman was standing on the side of an Alabama highway trying to endure a lashing rain storm. Her car had broken down and she desperately needed a ride. Soaking wet, she decided to flag down the next car. A young white man stopped to help her, generally unheard of in those conflict-filled 1960's. The man took her to safety, helped her get assistance and put her into a taxicab.

She seemed to be in a big hurry, but wrote down his address and thanked him. Seven days went by and a knock came on the man's door. To his surprise, a giant console color TV was delivered to his home. A special note was attached.

It read:

"Thank you so much for assisting me on the highway the other night. The rain drenched not only my clothes, but also my spirits. Then you came along. Because of you, I was able to make it to my dying husband's bedside just before he passed away... God bless you for helping me and unselfishly serving others."

Sincerely,
Mrs. Nat King Cole.

3. Always remember those who serve.

In the days when an ice cream sundae cost much less, a 10-year-old boy entered a hotel coffee shop and sat at a table. A waitress put a glass of water in front of him.

"How much is an ice cream sundae?" he asked.

"Fifty cents," replied the waitress.

The little boy pulled is hand out of his pocket and studied the coins in it.

"Well, how much is a plain dish of ice cream?" he inquired.

By now more people were waiting for a table and the waitress was growing impatient.

" Thirty-five cents," she brusquely replied.

The little boy again counted his coins.

"I'll have the plain ice cream," he said.

The waitress brought the ice cream, put the bill on the table and walked away The boy finished the ice cream, paid the cashier and left. When the waitress came back, she began to cry as she wiped down the table. There, placed neatly beside the empty dish, were two nickels and five pennies..

You see, he couldn't have the sundae, because he had to have enough left to leave her a tip.

4. The obstacle in Our Path

In ancient times, a King had a boulder placed on a roadway. Then he hid himself and watched to see if anyone would remove the huge rock. Some of the king's wealthiest merchants and courtiers came by and simply walked around it. Many loudly blamed the King for not keeping the roads clear, but none did anything about getting the stone out of the way.

Then a peasant came along carrying a load of vegetables. Upon approaching the boulder, the peasant laid down his burden and tried to move the stone to the side of the road. After much pushing and straining, he finally succeeded. After the peasant picked up his load of vegetables, he noticed a purse lying in the road where the boulder had been. The purse contained many gold coins and a note from the King indicating that the gold was for the person who removed the boulder from the roadway. The peasant learned what many of us never understand!

Every obstacle presents an opportunity to improve our condition.

5. Giving When it Counts

Many years ago, when I worked as a volunteer at a hospital, I got to know a little girl named Liz who was suffering from a rare & serious disease. Her only chance of recovery appeared to be a blood transfusion from her 5-year old brother, who had miraculously survived the same disease and had developed the antibodies needed to combat the illness. The doctor explained the situation to her little brother, and asked the little boy if he would be willing to give his blood to his sister.

I saw him hesitate for only a moment before taking a deep breath and saying, "Yes I'll do it if it will save her." As the transfusion progressed, he lay in bed next to his sister and smiled, as we all did, seeing the color returning to her cheek. Then his face grew pale and his smile faded.

He looked up at the doctor and asked with a trembling voice, "Will I start to die right away?"

Being young, the little boy had misunderstood the doctor; he thought he was going to have to give his sister all of his blood in order to save her.

Some Wednesday morning ponders for you... Thanks, Mike.

Quote of the Day

By Wretchard, in a comment to this post at the Belmont Club:

It's interesting to reflect, on Veterans Day, that all bravery can ever buy is time. What we do with that gift of time, so dearly purchased, is always what momentary victory is all about. It's a chance, nothing more.

The more I think about that sentence, the more profound it seems.

All that bravery by the Allied soldiers that bought victory in World War II bought such a chance – one that paid off immensely.

No less bravery was demonstrated by American soldiers in the Vietnam war, but the chance it bought was largely squandered (and the job left unfinished).

What will we do with the chance that our troops (and those of our coalition partners) are in the process of buying in Iraq?

Here's What Happens...

...when you and your friends hand your camera to someone and ask him to take your picture.

Shopping Sprees...

10News.com is reporting that kids in the Jamul area from families who lost their homes in the Harris fire can sign up for a $200 shopping spree.

Honor A Soldier...

Upate:

Reader Mike W. reports that this is a fake, and passes along the Snopes page to prove it. Looks like I was fooled too – I found the reference on several news sites, and therefore thought it was real. Note to self: always check the indispensable Snopes!

Read the Snopes article to see how you really can send a small gift to an anonymous soldier – but you can't send cards, and the reason is related to security.


Original Post:

My mother found this somewhere, and I verified it. What a great idea!

When you are making out your Christmas card list this year, please
include the following:

A Recovering American soldier
c/o Walter Reed Army Medical Center
6900 Georgia Avenue,NW
Washington,D.C. 20307-5001

This is going on our Christmas card list – and we're going to send several cards. I hope it will go on yours, too.

Thanks, mom...

Quote of the Day

I heard this in a radio advertisement on my way to work today. The ad was placed by the California Teacher's Association (CTA), and included this statement:

This law forces us to teach to the test.

As if that were a bad thing! The premise of the ad is that the tests required by the No Child Left Behind Act – the ones that actually measure the scholastic achievement of our school kids – force the teachers to spend time teaching that stuff instead of whatever it is that they would do otherwise (say, inculcation in Muslim culture or leftist ideology).

I kid you not – that's exactly what the ad says.

Talk about missing the point!

I believe our public schools have reached the point where the rot is unrecoverable. The only hope for reform is to close them, and let the private sector take over; let parents choose where to spend their education dollars.

Not that that's likely to happen. But I can dream, can't I?

High-Tech Warehouse...

Here's a fascinating story (if you're a geeky type) about a radical new design for warehouses, enabled by very smart robotics. The story likens the design to random access memory (the RAM of your computer), but I think a closer analogy would be a disk cache.

The graphic (above right) is a schematic of shelving units, color-coded for how frequently the items on them sell (red most frequently, violet least frequently). The entire system self-adapts to the changing sales rates of the goods on each shelf. This is exactly the behavior of a LRU (least recently used) disk cache.

This is a great example of modern technology penetrating the most mundane of industries. Right now (as usual) it's only cost-effective at very large scales; in a few years the costs will come down and you'll see this technology in even small warehouses...

Another Skeptic...

Another professional meterologist who is skeptical of global warming: John Coleman, founder of The Weather Channel:

It is the greatest scam in history. I am amazed, appalled and highly offended by it. Global Warming; It is a SCAM.

Some dastardly scientists with environmental and political motives manipulated long term scientific data back in the late 1990's to create an allusion of rapid global warming. Other scientists of the same environmental wacko type jumped into the circle to support and broaden the "research" to further enhance the totally slanted, bogus global warming claims. Their friends in government steered huge research grants their way to keep the movement going. Soon they claimed to be a consensus.

Environmental extremist, notable politicians among them then teamed up with movie, media and other liberal, environmentalist journalists to create this wild "scientific" scenario of the civilization threatening environmental consequences from Global Warming unless we adhere to their radical agenda.

Now their ridicules manipulated science has been accepted as fact and become a cornerstone issue for CNN, CBS, NBC, the Democratic Political Party, the Governor of California, school teachers and, in many cases, well informed but very gullible environmental conscientious citizens. Only one reporter at ABC has been allowed to counter the Global Warming frenzy with one 15 minutes documentary segment.

You can read John's entire paper here, and his blog here.

Day-By-Day and Yon...

Check out today's Day-by-Day cartoon: John Muir (the cartoonist) comments on the moving photograph by Michael Yon, showing Iraqis of several faiths working together to put a cross on top of a rebuilt Christian church.

If you're reading this on some day other than November 8, 2007, then click on the link above to see what I'm talking about.

x86 Math Bug...

The implementation of sin() and cos() on the Intel x86 platform has an interesting bug:

For many years, the JDK on x86 platforms has used the hardware fsin/fcos x87 instructions in the range [-pi/4, pi/4], a range which encompasses about half of all representable floating-point values. Therefore, in that range the performance of the JDK's transcendental functions should be nearly the same as the performance of the transcendental functions in C, C++, etc. that are using those same fsin/fcos instructions. Benchmarks which focus on testing the trig performance of large values, such as almabench, present a skewed portrait of Java's trigonometric performance. The next question is why don't we just use fsin/fcos over the entire floating-point range? The simple answer is that fsin/fcos can deliver answers that are arbitrarily wrong for the most straightforward way of measuring error in the result.

I'd never heard about this until I read this post on James Gosling's blog. On the native, uncorrected platform, the error can amount to 5 or 6 significant digits – most likely even producing results with the wrong sign!

Java programmers need not fear – the JVM fixes the problem (read the post to see how), but the fix is computationally intensive and reduces performance for angles outside the range of -pi/4 to pi/4 (in radians). Slow, but accurate (and predictable), as opposed to fast, but randomly inaccurate...

Jamulian

From the Union-Tribune:

SAN DIEGO – Authorities released the name Wednesday of an 18-year-old college student killed when the car he was driving crashed off an East County freeway at high speed, possibly as the youth was racing another motorist.

Devan Caddell of Jamul lost control of the 2001 Acura Integra after cutting in front of a white Ford Mustang on State Route 94 in La Mesa shortly after noon Tuesday, according to the California Highway Patrol and county Medical Examiner's Office.

The westbound Acura, which was traveling at 100 mph or faster, skidded off the right-hand side of the roadway near 69th Street, then crashed through a chain-link fence and smashed into a large tree behind a home, CHP public affairs Officer Brian Pennings said.

The impact uprooted the tree, tore the sedan apart and sent Caddell, a student at Mesa College, tumbling into the residential yard. He came to rest near a children's swing set and died at the scene.

The driver of the Mustang – who, according to witnesses, appeared to have been racing Caddell just prior to the crash – did not stop and has not been identified, Pennings said.

I don't know anything else about this senseless death. If any of you know more, please leave comments to let the rest of us know...

Less Profit...

Lakes Entertainment, the investor behind the Jamul Indian Casino project, just issued their quarterly report. It contains these statements related to the casino:

Net unrealized gains and (losses) on notes receivable were ($0.6) million and $5.8 million for the third quarters of 2007 and 2006, respectively. The net unrealized losses in the third quarter of 2007 related to unrealized gains on Lakes’ notes receivable from the Shingle Springs Band of Miwok Indians (Shingle Springs Tribe) in the amount of $1.2 million and unrealized losses of $1.8 million on the Lakes’ notes receivable from the Jamul Indian Village (Jamul Tribe). These notes receivable are adjusted to estimated fair value based upon the current status of the related tribal casino projects. The increase in fair value of the notes receivable from the Shingle Springs Tribe relates primarily to continued progress on the construction of this project, which is currently within budget and on schedule. The decrease in fair value of the notes receivable from the Jamul Tribe relates primarily to an increase in the discount rate which resulted from a decrease in current estimated win per unit for this project.

Net unrealized gains of $5.8 million during the third quarter of 2006 included $2.6 million related to the adjustment to fair value of notes receivable from the Shingle Springs Tribe due to favorable events occurring during the third quarter of 2006. The remainder of the net unrealized gains during the three months ended October 1, 2006, related primarily to increases in fair value of notes receivable from the Jamul Tribe and the Pokagon Band.

Summarized in English: the casino project isn't going to be as profitable as they originally thought. Here's hoping that trend continues, to the point where everybody just loses interest...

Magic Moments...

The photo at right is one of dozens from a collection of photos taken at exactly the right moment.

Imagine, if you can, being that fish… Is that an “Oh, s--t!” moment or what?

Now imagine being the bear. Self-serving sushi!

Resources for Rebuilding...

I heard about this event (San Diego Rebuilds) on the radio, and it sounds very useful -- especially the expertise and advice that will be available. It's a one-day affair in Escondido, but I suspect that if you're rebuilding, it would be well worth your time to attend:

Here is why this event is so important

Lessons learned during the Cedar Fire

Many fire victims were unfamiliar and unprepared to deal with the rebuilding process. Many became easy prey for unscrupulous, sleazy contractors. It was well documented that several were “revictimized” at the hands of these crooks; making absurdly low estimates, taking large deposits and then disappearing, poor workmanship, delays, etc. Others were stalled in the bureaucracy of the city’s building departments costing them precious time and money from their insurance settlements. Much of this aggravation could have been prevented with some help.

It is our intent to get all the players in one room— A one-stop shop if you will, where the 2007 victims can come and get honest assistance and opportunities to meet local building officials, licensing board, attorneys, tax and lending professionals, verified (licensed, insurance, comp, bonded) contractors, architects, estimators and other suppliers.

The organizer of this event was being interviewed by Roger Hedgecock (who is himself involved in the event to some extent). It sounds like this is completely a volunteer effort -- there is no cost to this event (either for fire victims or for the contractors and architects, etc.), so this is not an attempt to make some money from our neighbor's pain. From the interview, I gathered that the main goal of this event was to make it easy for people rebuilding to get all of the information they need, and (perhaps especially) to check out the vendors present so you know they are not going to rip you off.

Cross-posted from Jamul Fire Help.

Cow Rescue...

A cow in a culvert, somewhere near Jamul (along 94). Rescued by the San Diego Human Society…

JAMUL, Calif. -- Thanks to a specialty rescue crew and some beefy equipment, Violet the cow is no longer stuck livestock.

The brown-and-white bovine, who had wandered away from her owners' Jamul home overnight, got spooked, bolted and slipped into a concrete culvert when a highway patrol officer approached her alongside state Route 94 about 9:30 a.m. Monday, according to the San Diego Humane Society.

It took a volunteer crisis team that works with the animal-welfare agency about two hours to hook the roughly 1,700-pound cow to a harness rig and haul her out of the ditch with a crane, said Candice Ely of the SDHS.


A veterinarian then looked her over and determined that she was unscathed by her misadventure, Eley said.

Violet normally is pastured in Campo, but her owners had brought her to their rural home so they could care for an eye infection she had developed, Eley added.

Clean Cell Phone...

I just remembered a funny little story from our evacuation two weeks ago, during the fires. We drove from our home in Jamul to a friend's house in Chula Vista, Debbie in my pickup and me in our RV. We talked to each other during the drive via our cell phones – so I knew I had remembered to bring mine. But...shortly after we arrived at our friend's home, my cell phone disappeared. I wrote it off in my mind as a trivial cost considering what we were doing, and didn't worry about it.

But a couple of days later, Debbie came in from our friend's garage, laughing, and holding my cell phone. It was dripping wet and covered with soapy spots – she had just fished it out of the washing machine. Apparently I left the thing in my pocket, and into the laundry it went.

It looked completely hopeless, but just for form's sake I took it apart, rinsed it out, and set it in a sunny window to warm up and dry out. The next day I plugged it in, and to my surprise the “charging” indicator showed up on the screen – a substantial amount of the phone has to be functional for that to happen. After it charged for a while, I turned it on – and it worked! Better than ever, actually – the keyboard used to have some sticky keys, but now they all worked perfectly.

My phone is a cheap, bottom-of-the-line Nokia that I paid $29 for at Wal-Mart. Something tells me that if we had laundered my wife's feature-laden, $299 cell phone, the results would not have been as happy…

The Singing Revolution...

My long-time readers know that I have a special interest in the tiny country of Estonia. Because two companies I worked for had software development teams there (in the main city, Tallinn), I visited there many times from 1994 to 2005. I've traveled extensively throughout the country and made many friends there. There are many things I cherish about Estonia, but high on the list is its recent history, beginning with the bloodless revolution that won the country's freedom from the Soviet Union in 1991. This revolution is called "The Singing Revolution", because of the important role that music – and specifically singing – played in it. I've read several books about it, and watched two documentary films. I've also learned a lot about it from several people I know who actually participated in it.

Now there's a movie about it. I only learned of this movie this morning, from this column by Brent Bozell on Yahoo News. A teaser:

How many of us know that Estonia, one of the smallest countries on the face of this earth, is responsible for one of the most extraordinary, and certainly the most unique, revolutions in modern history? How many of us know that this tiny Baltic nation defeated the Soviet Union — with a song? This is not meant as hyperbole. It is literal truth.

One of the most fascinating documentaries you will ever watch is about to make its debut around the country. Make a note of it: "The Singing Revolution." Go to the Website singingrevolution.com to learn when and where in your city it will air. Should you miss that opportunity, make it a point to rent the DVD the moment it hits the stores.

Some documentaries entertain. Some educate. "The Singing Revolution" will bring you to your feet, cheering. It is the quintessential celebration of the human spirit.

The film's web site is here. I know nothing more than what is in the column and web site linked above – but if this film comes to San Diego, I will go see it. I haven't been to a theater for something like 10 years, and thought I was never going to go again – but I'd make an exception for this movie…

Naturally, there's a clip on YouTube:

Peaceful Sunset...

This was the view looking west from Lyons Peak just a few minutes ago. Serene, beautiful, peaceful...

And not necessarily expected. Up until a few hours ago, the national weather service was forecasting a mild Santa Ana for today and early tomorrow – enough to cause the Governator to order a full alert for all the fire-fighting services, and to pre-position equipment in San Diego County (and in other Southern California areas).

But in the end, we got no winds today. It was dry, warm, and calm – a very pleasant day, actually.

This is one time when I'm quite happy that the weatherman got it wrong!

Cross-Posting???

I seem to have confused some of my readers with the little note I put at the bottom of one of my posts this morning, saying Cross-Posted from Jamul Fire Help – several of you wrote to ask me what the heck that meant. So let me explain in a little more detail…

The folks who run the Jamul Fire Help website were kind enough to ask me to post on their blog occasionally. They're trying to raise money (and otherwise help) for the Jamul victims of the recent fires. They asked if I'd help out a little by posting on their blog, and of course I agreed. When the topic makes sense for both my blog and theirs, I'll publish the same post in both places – that's what “cross-posting”…

Tomato Soup...

Just before the fires last week, my parents shipped two large boxes of New Jersey tomatoes to me – the last of the season. When the fires closed the Post Office (and we were evacuated), the delivery that should have been made last Tuesday or Wednesday was delayed until this Tuesday – an entire week late.

My mother was sure that the content of the boxes would have putrified by then, but when Debbie picked up the boxes, she discovered that most of the tomatoes were fine. In fact, most of them weren't even completely ripe yet. So I set them aside for a few days to let them fully ripen. The few that ripened earliest disappeared into a few evening snacks of tomato salads and tomato sandwiches. Lovely things, they were.

But they don't hold a candle to what I did with the remaining 16 dead-ripe New Jersey tomatoes today: I made a large batch of Boston-style cream of tomato soup. Debbie, our best friend Jim, and I gorged ourselves with two gigantic bowls of this delectable concoction; it was our dinner tonight. The recipe was simple enough – I'd never made this particular style before, but there wasn't much that could go wrong. The base of the soup is a puree of the tomatoes (with some carrots and onions) and a little whipping cream for texture and body. The tomato flavor is enhanced with a strong component of fresh thyme, plus parsely and fresh-ground pepper. The result was right up there with the very best tomato soups I've ever had.

I made about six quarts of soup; there is only about a pint left. All three of us are sloshing as we walk. But we have smiles on our faces…that soup was good enough to make us wonder if it might not be a controlled substance!

Preparing for the Next One...

One thing we can be certain of, unfortunately, is that wildfires will attack our community again. Some areas (such as Lawson Valley, where I live) have 35 years or more of chaparral fuel build-up. While a fire can start almost anywhere, areas with large amounts of fuel upwind of them have the highest risks during a Santa Ana – any fire upwind of such areas will move quickly toward them.

The general direction of the Santa Ana winds is from the northeast (blowing toward the southwest). However, local geological features (hills, canyons, etc.) can modify this, so the direction could be different in your immediate neighborhood – and those same features can also affect the intensity of the winds. The Pine Valley canyon is a good example of a geological feature that intensifies the wind; the I-8 bridge there is notorious for its fierce crosswinds during a Santa Ana.

It can be very instructive to see how much fuel is left near your home, and especially to the northeast of your home. The map at right, above (click to expand it) shows the fire history in our area for the past 18 years, since 1990. The blue hatched areas are where the Harris Fire burned last week. The pink hatched areas are where fires burned since 2000. The green hatched areas show fires that occurred in the 1990s. The areas that have no hatching (plain gray) have had no fires since 1990.

You’ll note that some areas have burned multiple times – it only takes a few years after a fire for enough fuel to regrow to be able to sustain a fire. However, fires in those more recently-burned areas are much less intense, for the simple reason there is less fuel there. In general, the longer it has been since an area has burned, the more difficult it is to fight a fire there. From the perspective of future risk, it’s definitely better to have recently burned areas upwind of you.

If you examine the map carefully, you’ll note that there’s a large area unburned since 1990 stretching from roughly the Descanso area southwest to the town of Jamul. Those of us living in that area should recognize the risk we face from fires starting during a Santa Ana, especially severe Santa Anas such as the one we had last week. There is a mild Santa Ana forecast for tomorrow and Sunday; even this elevates our risk considerably. If you live in this area that hasn’t been burned for a long time, be especially watchful this weekend and during any other Santa Anas we have.

An excellent resource that allows anyone in our area to watch for fires are the cameras on Lyons Peak. These are operated by HPWREN, and they update every two minutes. You can get the raw feeds directly from this page, or get them processed (with location annotations and automatic updating) from this page. Either way, keeping an eye on these cameras will give you the earliest possible warning of any fires breaking out, and exactly where they are located.

Cross-posted from Jamul Fire Help…

Monster Caterpillar...

As I was watering our potted patio plants this morning, I noticed that our potato tree (Solanum paraguayensis) had lost quite a few leaves. I looked a little closer, and spotted this enormous green caterpillar on its sparse branches. It was still early, just after sunrise, and cold – so the caterpillar was motionless. All stretched out, it would be about 3 inches (8 cm) long; about the size of one of my fingers.

With a little research on the web, I'm pretty sure that this is the caterpillar of some Sphinx moth (there are many species). I grabbed this photos quickly, as I suspected that when it warmed up it would start moving about.

And that's exactly what it did – by the time I got these photos loaded into my computer, the temperature had risen substantially, and the caterpillar had turned into an amazing eating machine. I watched it methodically strip one small branch of my poor potato tree in about 60 seconds. I don't think anything would have been left of my potato tree after a few hours of work by this guy!

So I picked it up and moved it over to the 6' post that holds our bird feeders up, and hoped it would feed a family of birds for a few days. A couple hours later, it was still there, wandering about looking for something green to masticate. A couple of sparrows were perched nearby, checking it out – so I suspect it's life expectancy is quite low…