Sometimes We All Have a Day Like This...

Via reader Simi L.:

Cicada Periodicity...

Cicadas are currently emerging on the east coast of the U.S.  These are interesting large insects that I remember well from my childhood in New Jersey.  The North American species (called “periodical cicadas”) have a fascinating quirk: they breed in multi-year cycles of either 13 or 17 years.  They spend most of their lives underground, feeding from the roots of trees.  But every 13 or 17 years (depending on the group, or brood they belong to), they emerge, transform in the large flying insect pictured at right, and breed – thereby starting the next 13 or 17 year cycle.

If you're into math at all, you probably noted immediately that both 13 and 17 are prime numbers.  Is there are reason why those cycles are a prime number of years?  I've wondered that myself.

This morning I read about a hypothesis for this phenomenon.  If it's true that the cicada have multiple predators (that is, things that eat cicadas) whose populations vary cyclically (but independently), then it's provable that the best way for the cicadas to have a regular life cycle while minimizing the chances of being eaten is to have a life cycle that is a prime number of years long.  This, of course, would provide an evolutionary pressure giving the advantage to cicadas whose life cycles happened to be a prime number of years long.  After a few thousand generations, you'd get the situation we have today.

Awesome!

Steyn on Scandals...

Just go read it...

College Tuition Increases...

This article rants and raves about the cost of college tuition, which for the past 20 years or so has been rising much faster than inflation.  The author explores several possible reasons for the increase, but none of them are satisfyingly simple and obvious. 

There is such a reason, however: the fast ramp of college tuition almost exactly correlates with the easing of student loan availability.  Way back in the Cretaceous era when I was examining the possibility of going to college, there's no way that I could have gotten a student loan.  These days, thanks to numerous Federal and State programs, if you can fog a mirror and get admitted to any college, you can easily get a loan to pay not only your tuition, but your books and living expenses as well.

So why would that make college tuition increase?  Because the marketplace for college has been distorted by the government subsidies and guarantees in the student loan market – a student selecting a college no longer needs to worry so much about what it costs.  Because the loans are so easy to get, the only pricing pressure comes from a students deferred need to pay off the loan.  This greatly reduces the pressure on colleges and universities to keep their prices low, as the “buyers” not longer care so much about the price.  Instead, they are now motivated to spend more money to compete for student loans (the fact that a student comes along with the loan is just a cost of doing business for them, and a relatively minor one). 

This is yet another example of the government's intervention causing a huge distortion in the market.  Like the housing bubble, the taxpayers are going to be on the hook again – because a large fraction of all the trillions in student loans are guaranteed by some Federal program or another.  Of course “Federal guarantee” is just the polite way of saying “They're going to stick their hands in my pocket to steal the money”...

Slo-Mo Hummers...

This was taken in Los Angeles.  The two hummingbird species shown (Allen's and Anna's) are both native to us as well...

Reunited...

Marine Sgt. Ross Gundlach served in Afghanistan with Casey, a yellow lab trained as an explosives dog.  Sgt. Gundlach wanted to take care of Casey after she was retired, but she was assigned to the Iowa State Fire Marshal's office.  After pleading his case to the Fire Marshal's office, some state officials with a heart decided to make Sgt. Gundlach's dream come true.  They arranged a surprise reunion of Sgt. Gundlach and Casey, and now the two will be together permanently.

There's a government story that makes me feel good.  First time in a while...

A Most Excellent Wildlife Viewing Evening...

Last night Debbie and I went up to one of our favorite local wildlife viewing spots: the Stonewall Mine Road in Cuyamaca Park, just before dark.  We're still delighting in the return of a substantial deer herd (gone since the 2007 fires), and last night didn't disappoint on that score – we saw at least 50 deer in two different main groups and in several singles and pairs.  We hoped for a bobcat or mountain lion, but alas didn't see one.  We did get a extended great view of a male meadowlark singing his heart out.  What glorious colors on them!

But the highlight of the evening wasn't at Stonewall – it was on the way home.  Debbie, sharp-eyed as always, spotted a hawk silhouetted on a nest with chicks – just 15 feet or so from the road!  I never saw a thing, as I was concentrating on getting the truck safely around the tight corners (this is on the stretch of State 79 between Oakzanita and Descanso town, where the road is very curvy).  I found a place to turn around, and we drove back up to find that nest.  We parked the truck on the road, half on the (narrow) shoulder and turned on the 4-way flashers – and then settled in for a delightful 10 minutes or so watching one hawk parent (we think a red tail, but we couldn't positively ID it) and its two chicks.  The chicks were still mostly white, with a mottled appearance as their first flight feathers were emerging.  There wasn't much action; they seemed sleepy (this was right at dusk) and maybe a little cold.  The parent just stared at us the whole time :)

I've never been this close to a raptor nest with chicks before.  We both had our binoculars with us, so we had a real treat – with the binoculars, were were count-the-feather-barbs close.  Awesome!

One fellow drove by the other way while we were stopped.  He asked if we were ok, and I told him we were watching a hawk's nest.  He said “Nice!” and drove on.  Shortly after we packed up our binoculars and left, though, several cars passed us the other way, and a sheriff's SUV came up behind us.  Our timing was very good :)

We drove home with big silly smiles plastered all over our faces...

Pelargonium tetragonum...

From BPOD, of course:

Quantum Computing Skeptic...

Scott Aaronson doesn't think we're likely to see practical quantum computers anytime soon – if ever.  The rash of recent news concerning the D-Wave company and their claims of working quantum computers drove Scott to comment publicly (for the first time in a while) and even to talk with some reporters.  The reporters all want to know, basically, why he remains skeptical when big businesses (can you spell Google?) and government (uh oh) are spending millions of dollars on D-Wave machines, and have announced spectacular results.  Scott's awesome response:

My reaction, I confess, is simple.  I don’t care—I actually told them this—if the former Pope Benedict has ended his retirement to become D-Wave’s new marketing director.  I don’t care if the Messiah has come to Earth on a flaming chariot, not to usher in an age of peace but simply to spend $10 million on D-Wave’s new Vesuvius chip.  And if you imagine that I’ll ever care about such things, then you obviously don’t know much about me.  I’ll tell you what: if peer pressure is where it’s at, then come to me with the news that Umesh Vazirani, or Greg Kuperberg, or Matthias Troyer is now convinced, based on the latest evidence, that D-Wave’s chip asymptotically outperforms simulated annealing in a fair comparison, and does so because of quantum effects.  Any one such scientist’s considered opinion would mean more to me than 500,000 business deals.

Read his entire post for a (much) more detailed D-Wave takedown...

I don't understand enough about quantum computers to have an informed opinion on their plausibility.  But I have seen hype before, and I have personally witnessed hype completely overwhelming any semblance of reality.  Anybody who lived through the dot-com bubble and was at all observant can say the same thing :)

Cold War Gadgets...

A collection of photos of Cold War KGB (Soviet) gadgets, like the listening device shown below, hidden inside a hollowed-out log:

London in 1927...

This is America?

Sarah Ingram headed the IRS' unit that oversaw tax-exempt organizations up until a short time ago.  She was the boss of that unit when conservative organizations were being targeted for tax-exempt application slowdowns and runarounds, and when conservative organizations and individuals were audited.  She's at the very center of the current scandal, and a completely relevant questions (all as yet unresolved) are:

• How much did Sarah Hall know, and when did she know it?
• Did Sarah Hall direct any of the conservative targeting?
• Did Sarah Hall, directly or indirectly, condone any of the conservative targeting?
• Should Sarah Hall have had the processes and procedures in place to detect and prevent the conservative targeting?

That last point may sound like a no-brainer, but it's really not – it depends substantially on how the IRS organizes its oversight and audit processes (I'm making the large assumption that they actually have such processes).

Now, given all those questions hanging over Sarah Hall, what's the right thing for the IRS to do with her?  You and I might say she should be put on paid leave while the investigation unfolds.  The IRS says she should be promoted and put in charge of the implementation of the parts of Obamacare that the IRS is responsible for.

That should terrify any American – the possibility exists that an operative devoted to abusing the IRS for political purposes just got placed in charge of access to healthcare for millions of Americans.  If you're not terrified, you might want to play a little connect-the-dots...

As I read this, I felt like I was reading about East Germany or Romania in the '60s – but I double-checked, and that article really is about America in 2013.

I want my country back.

Quote of the Day...

From today's Day-by-Day cartoon (below):

...you don't want to grow up to be like the president, do you?

Can You Raise 73 to the 12th Power in Your Head?

I certainly can not (it would have to be a good day for me to do 5^5 in my head!), but apparently this fellow can.  Not just that pair of numbers, but any pair you can throw at him.  If this is for real, it's amazing...

National Geographic Photo of the Month...

It'a a corker of an Eastern Screech Owl, in the Okefnokee Swamp of southern Georgia...

In the News...

Spotted:

WASHINGTON—Saying that none of the facts quite add up, first daughter Sasha Obama, 11, reported being “highly suspicious” today after poking around the details of the 2012 Benghazi attack. “I’m sorry, but it just doesn’t make sense—first they blame the attack on a spontaneous demonstration, but now we find out the CIA talking points were secretly revised?” said the sixth-grader, sitting in the darkened White House library intensely scrolling through pages of articles about the controversy and classified Pentagon briefings. “Obviously, someone’s hiding something: the poor security; the al-Qaeda link; the leaked emails. All I’m asking for here is a simple explanation from the State Department and the White House, and I’m not getting one. I mean, who are they protecting here? And why?” Sasha went on to tell reporters she felt even more suspicious after former defense secretary Leon Panetta failed to respond to any of her 24 voicemails.

The Onion, of course.

When you've lost the Onion, ...

Leg Room...

If you've flown in the past few years, and you're not one of the fortunate few in business or first class, then you've had the lovely experience of seat compression.  The airlines keep moving the seats closer together (they call this “seat pitch”) to cram more seats in the airplanes.

It's occurred to me to wonder how much this is actually worth to an airline.  Does making their passengers miserable actually make them any more money?  You have to believe it does, or the airlines would quickly stop doing it (competition assures that some airline would try this as a way to attract passengers).  But how much does it make the airlines?

Well, now we know the answer.  For Southwest Airlines, changing the seat pitch from 32" to 31" was worth $773,074,040 a year.  That's serious money!

I would guess this could be optimized a bit more.  If you had seats available at various pitches (say, 31", 32", and 36"), I'd be willing to bet the airlines could sell the seats with more separation for a considerable premium, just as they do today for exit row seats (which have more separation)...

Overheard...

Yesterday I had to venture “down the hill” into San Diego to pick up some specialty lumber items (I'm getting ready to build the storage compartment and dog platform in the FJ).  The vendor I was visiting, who shall remain unnamed, is notable for two things: (1) the marvelous selection of hardwoods and exotic plywoods, and (2) the glacial pace of their customer service and antiquity of their computers (they should really be in a museum somewhere, not actually in use!).  The second of these characteristics assures there will be a collection of customers at the counter, waiting with various degrees of patience.  And there are conversations...

I sat on one of the provided benches and read the text on the container of glue I was buying.  Next to me, a thirtyish young man was complaining about the negative portrayals (by the media) of the current Washington scandals.  This provided me with a fascinating view into the mind of a progressive voter, and with the opportunity to ask some questions.  From memory, here's how it went:

“I'm OK with Obama ordering searches of those damned reporters!” said my progressive voter.  “If he thinks they leaked that intelligence information, then I want him to go after the leakers!”  I asked if he really thought that Obama had personally ordered the phone records searched, and if he really thought that the AP employees were the actual leakers – yes on both counts.  I then asked if he would have been OK with G.W. Bush ordering a similar search.  “Hell, no!  Don't trust him!” was the answer.  OK, I said, but how would you codify that into the law?  “Easy!  Democrat presidents can do it, Republicans can not.”  I asked a few questions to see if he was serious about that, and as far as I can tell, he was.  If you distill what I heard there, it comes down to fascism – my progressive voter was really proposing a flavor of fascism.

Now to the IRS kerfuffle, wherein progressive-leaning groups applying for tax-exempt status had their applications expedited, and conservative-leaning groups got the run-around, threats, and extended information requests.  You can probably predict that my progressive voter thought that was the way things should be.  He saw nothing wrong with it at all, and thought the press should be lauding the IRS's efforts.  Shades of 1984! 

Finally, the Benghazi affair.  My progressive voter surprised me a little here.  Basically he was completely ignorant of the damning emails and other documents that have been trickling out, or else he's just pretending they don't exist.  His belief is that all of the Benghazi flap is a Republican “dirty trick”, and that they've got stooges manufacturing all this testimony about Obama having political motives for not treating the Benghazi attacks as a terrorist attack.  He thinks that the four Americans were likely killed “by accident” when they tried to interact with an unruly mob enraged by viewing the YouTube video.  As best I could tell, he really, truly believes all that.

By the time we finished with our conversation, we had a small knot of others waiting for service around us.  Some of these people had peripherally participated in the conversation.  It was clear from the general tone and facial expressions that most were with my progressive voter (there were, thankfully, a few scornful faces of those who were not).  From some of the comments, it was clear that in general this was not a well-informed crowd.  One fellow, for example, was certain that Benghazi was a city in Iraq; another was convinced that every word we said (on the telephone or not) was being recorded by the CIA and this AP flap was therefore by definition a tempest in a teapot.

Being quite immersed in the news myself, I sometimes forget that most people pay much less attention to these things that I do.  They're probably happier for doing so :)  What's interesting is how these folks make up their minds about the news items they've heard just a little about.  It's clear that the lamestream media has a big influence.  It appears that preconceived notions and their personal feelings about the president also have a lot of influence.  And for some people, a predisposition to conspiracy theories seems to be a predominant driver.  All of these people are quite likely to arrive at a conclusion that simply cannot be supported by those pesky things known as actual facts – and this doesn't actually seem to bother them too much.

It bothers me, though.  These people vote.

I got no answers, just worries...

FJ Cruiser: Shakedown Cruise #2...

Sunday (Mother's Day) turned out to be too danged hot to do any work outside – so we decided to take the FJ Cruiser out for another shakedown ride.  This time we headed out to Los Pinos, the northernmost road that's in the Corral Canyon offroading area.  This is a few miles south of I-8 and a few miles east of Pine Valley, which means it's not very far from home.  There's a road there that starts just below the Los Pinos fire lookout (the photo at right was taken from near the start of this road, with Corte Madera visible just above and left of the FJ), heads down to the saddle between Corte Madera and Los Pinos, and then west down the ravine just south of Corte Madera (the photo below left was taken just at the start of the section down the ravine, with Corte Madera visible above the FJ).

In past years this has been a moderately rugged ride with just one or two challenging parts.  We were surprised once again – the entire section that runs down the ravine is challenging, with several very challenging parts.  All this is thanks to the rains this year and the consequent erosion; in some parts the road looks like it's lost 8" to 12" of soil, with big bad rocks left exposed.  So this turned out to be the best set of challenges yet for our little FJ Cruiser.

And challenge it we did!  We managed to sit it down on one skid or another at least a half dozen times, and twice we smacked a rock or two hard enough to make scratches and dents in the 1/4" GR-50 skid plates.  The photo at right was taken on the way back out, near the place the previous photo was taken – past all the challenging bits, just easy stuff left to go.  When I crawled under the FJ afterwards to see what we hurt, I found a couple of gouges and a nice big dent on the front suspension skid, a gouge on the rear differential skid, and a nice big scrape on the forward port-side lower link skid.  Any one of those, if we didn't have the skids, might have caused some very inconvenient damage.  With the skids, just a bit of touch-up paint is needed.  Big smiles from us for the skids!

The real test, though, was the handling.  We got to exercise, for real, many of the features of our little FJ Cruiser.  We stayed in low 4 wheel drive range for much of this trail, and I found the handling both uphill and downhill to be superb – secure footing, nice high clearances, easy and solid steering, totally controlled braking.  The FJ is a very competent offroad vehicle; considerably more agile than the LandCruiser we've been driving for the past 15 years (though also considerably smaller and less comfortable!).  At one point I needed to use the rear differential locker, and it just worked, nice and smooth.  We had the A-Trac system on most of the time, and we felt the brakes kicking in fairly frequently to keep one wheel or another from spinning.  All-in-all the FJ made it very easy to drive on quite a rugged road.  I'm calibrating my driving to the new ride, and my confidence in it is rising rapidly.  It's all good!

All the photos in this post were taken with my iPhone, including the panorama below, which I took from just below the Los Pinos fire lookout.  The iPhone makes taking a panorama ridiculously easy, and its software does a bang-up job of seamlessly stitching the whole thing together.  The result beats the pants off of any panorama software I've ever used.  I've labeled some points of interest on this roughly 180° panorama; if you know San Diego County these will mostly be familiar places to you.  As always, click to enlarge.

And of course there were flowers:

The Paradox of the Proof...

A fascinating story (with no difficult math) for anyone interested in math – Shinichi Mochizuki's still-unreviewed proof of the ABC conjecture...