Crazy PIlls...

Over at Politico, Ben Smith talks about an email he received from a Republican consultant. This fellow was conducting a focus group to test a new no-holds-barred attack ad on Obama. Listen to what he says about the comments from the focus group after seeing the ad:

Reagan Dems and Independents. Call them blue-collar plus. Slightly more Target than Walmart.

Yes, the spot worked. Yes, they believed the charges against Obama. Yes, they actually think he's too liberal, consorts with bad people and WON'T BE A GOOD PRESIDENT...but they STILL don't give a f***. They said right out, "He won't do anything better than McCain" but they're STILL voting for Obama.

The two most unreal moments of my professional life of watching focus groups:

54 year-old white male, voted Kerry '04, Bush '00, Dole '96, hunter, NASCAR fan...hard for Obama said: "I'm gonna hate him the minute I vote for him. He's gonna be a bad president. But I won't ever vote for another god-damn Republican. I want the government to take over all of Wall Street and bankers and the car companies and Wal-Mart run this county like we used to when Reagan was President."

The next was a woman, late 50s, Democrat but strongly pro-life. Loved B. and H. Clinton, loved Bush in 2000. "Well, I don't know much about this terrorist group Barack used to be in with that Weather guy but I'm sick of paying for health insurance at work and that's why I'm supporting Barack."

I felt like I was taking crazy pills. I sat on the other side of the glass and realized...this really is the Apocalypse. The Seventh Seal is broken and its time for eight years of pure, delicious crazy....

This jibes very well with what I've seen in some people I know. There seem to be five general categories of those old enough to vote:

1. They don't care at all (and likely won't vote).
2. They're in love with Obama, and are definitely voting for him.
3. They see McCain as shaky, but better than the only realistic alternative (that's me).
4. They think both candidates are awful, and won't vote.
5. They think both candidates are equally incompetent, but they're voting for Obama for no reason they can articulate (that's the group the consultant is describing).

Add all that up, and it doesn't look good for McCain...

Obama's Tax Plan...

A simple, but effective presentation by Penn & Teller:

Chili Cook-Off...

Reader Jim M. sent me this little comedy essay. I had tears running down my face by the time I finished it...

Chili Cook-Off

If you can read this whole story without laughing, then there's no hope for you. I was crying by the end. This is an actual account as relayed to paramedics at a chili cook-off in Oklahoma.

Note: Please take time to read this slowly. If you pay attention to the first two judges, the reaction of the third judge is even better. For those of you who have lived in Texas or Oklahoma , you know how true this is. They actually have a Chili Cook-off about the time Halloween comes around. It takes up a major portion of a parking lot at the Oklahoma City Park

Judge #3 was an inexperienced Chili taster named Frank, who was visiting from Springfield , IL

Frank: 'Recently, I was honored to be selected as a judge at a chili cook-off. The original person called in sick at the last moment and I happened to be standing there at the judge's table, asking for directions to the Coors Light truck, when the call came in. I was assured by the other two judges (Native Texans) that the chili wouldn't be all that spicy; and, besides, they told me I could have free beer! during the tasting, so I accepted and became Judge 3.'

Here are the scorecard notes from the event:

CHILI # 1 - MIKE'S MANIAC MONSTER CHILI
Judge # 1 -- A little too heavy on the tomato. Amusing kick.
Judge # 2 -- Nice, smooth tomato flavor. Very mild.
Judge # 3 (Frank) -- Holy crap, what the hell is this stuff? You could remove dried paint from your driveway. Took me two beers to put the flames out. I hope that's the worst one. These Texans are crazy.

CHILI # 2 - AUSTIN 'S AFTERBURNER CHILI
Judge # 1 -- Smoky, with a hint of pork. Slight jalapeno tang.
Judge # 2 -- Exciting BBQ flavor, needs more peppers to be taken seriously.
Judge # 3 -- Keep this out of the reach of children. I'm not sure what I'm supposed to taste besides pain. I had to wave off two people who wanted to give me the Heimlich maneuver. They had to rush in more beer when they saw the look on my face.

CHILI # 3 - FRED'S FAMOUS BURN DOWN THE BARN CHILI
Judge # 1 -- Excellent firehouse chili. Great kick.
Judge # 2 -- A bit salty, good use of peppers.
Judge # 3 -- Call the EPA. I've located a uranium spill. My nose feels like I have been snorting Drano. Everyone knows the routine by now. Get me more beer before I ignite. Barmaid pounded me on the back, now my backbone is in the front part of my chest. I'm getting sh*t-faced from all of the beer.

CHILI # 4 - BUBBA'S BLACK MAGIC
Judge # 1 -- Black bean chili with almost no spice. Disappointing.
Judge # 2 -- Hint of lime in the black beans. Good side dish for fish or other mild foods, not much of a chili.
Judge # 3 -- I felt something scraping across my tongue, but was unable to taste it. Is it possible to burn out taste buds? Sally, the beer maid was standing behind me with fresh refills. This 300 lb. woman is starting to look HOT... just like this nuclear waste I'm eating! Is chili an aphrodisiac?

CHILI # 5 - LISA'S LEGAL LIP REMOVER
Judge # 1 -- Meaty, strong chili. Cayenne peppers freshly ground, adding considerable kick. Very impressive.
Judge # 2 -- Chili using shredded beef, could use more tomato. Must admit the cayenne peppers make a strong statement.
Judge # 3 -- My ears are ringing, sweat is pouring off my forehead and I can no longer focus my eyes. I farted, and four people behind me needed paramedics. The contestant seemed offended when I told her that her chili had given me brain damage. Sally saved my tongue from bleeding by
pouring beer directly on it from the pitcher. I wonder if I'm burning my lips off. It really ticks me off that the other judges asked me to stop screaming. Screw them.

CHILI # 6 - VERA'S VERY VEGETARIAN VARIETY
Judge # 1 -- Thin yet bold vegetarian variety chili. Good balance of spices and peppers.
Judge # 2 -- The best yet. Aggressive use of peppers, onions, garlic. Superb.
Judge # 3 -- My intestines are now a straight pipe filled with gaseous, sulfuric flames. I crapped on myself when I farted, and I'm worried it will eat through the chair. No one seems inclined to stand behind me except that Sally. Can't feel my lips anymore. I need to wipe my butt with a snow cone.

CHILI # 7 - SUSAN'S SCREAMING SENSATION CHILI
Judge # 1 -- A mediocre chili with too much reliance on canned peppers.
Judge # 2 -- Ho hum, tastes as if the chef literally threw in a can of chili peppers at the last moment. **I should take note that I am worried about judge number 3. He appears to be in a bit of distress as he is cursing uncontrollably.
Judge # 3 -- You could put a grenade in my mouth, pull the pin, and I wouldn't feel a thing. I've lost sight in one eye, and the world sounds like it is made of rushing water. My shirt is covered with chili, which slid unnoticed out of my mouth. My pants are full of lava to match my shirt. At least during the autopsy, they'll know what killed me. I've decided to stop breathing. It's too painful. Screw it; I'm not getting any oxygen anyway. If I need air, I'll just suck it in through the 4-inch hole in my stomach.

CHILI # 8 - BIG TOM'S TOENAIL CURLING CHILI
Judge # 1 -- The perfect ending, this is a nice blend chili. Not too bold but spicy enough to declare its existence.
Judge # 2 -- This final entry is a good, balanced chili. Neither mild nor hot. Sorry to see that most of it was lost when Judge #3 farted, passed out, fell over and pulled the chili pot down on top of himself. Not sure if he's going to make it. Poor feller, wonder how he'd have reacted to really hot chili?

Judge # 3 - No Report

Socialized Medicine...

The National Health Service (NHS) in England is often held up as an example of how to do it right by the proponents of socialized health care in the U.S. My friends in England are quite puzzled by this, as they would trade our health care for theirs in an instant. This morning I read an article that tells you how the NHS itself views it; the subhead says it all.

An NHS trust has spent more than £12,000 on private treatment for hospital staff because its own waiting times are too long.

Go read the whole thing...and remember this (and your post office) the next time someone tells you that we should have the federal government running our health care system...

Voters...

Normally I don't pay any attention at all to the likes of Howard Stern – but somehow I surfed to the audio clip below, and I was dumbstruck. In it, Howard Stern is asking questions of voters in Harlem. He asks questions that, in each case, ask them if they support some policy or personnel selection of Obama – but in each case he substitutes the actual policy or personnel selection of McCain. Not one voter detects the substitution.

God help us all – these people are going to elect the next President of the U.S...

Uighurs...

Here's the lead of an excellent editorial over at the National Review:

Last June, five Supreme Court justices dreamed up a constitutional right for aliens held as enemy combatants to challenge their wartime detention in court. Now the bitter fruits of the Boumediene decision are plain to see: In Washington, a federal judge has ordered the release — into the United States — of 17 men captured near Tora Bora after the American invasion of Afghanistan.

The men are Uighur Muslims from China. And therein lies the key to this convoluted tale. The outpouring of media sympathy for the Uighurs suggests that they were on holiday when they were mistakenly swept up by invading Americans. In point of fact, they had trained at jihadist paramilitary camps, where they were schooled in bomb construction, close combat, assassinations, and the like. Specifically, the Uighurs are tied to an al-Qaeda affiliate, the East Turkestan Islamic Movement, a designated terrorist organization. As terrorism researcher Thomas Joscelyn has documented, several of them were fighting against our troops. Their capture was entirely proper. And predictably, many of them have joined forces with other jihadists held in Guantánamo Bay to riot and assault American guards.

This is a wonderfully clear example of the consequences of a court that has no problem distorting the Constitution into something it was never meant to be. It is impossible for any rational thinker even to imagine that the Founding Fathers would have agreed with this Supreme Court decision – much less the consequences of it in this case.

In recent years my view of the Supreme Court has completely flip-flopped. I used to think of them as sort of the safety net – the restraint that would keep the elected politicians from doing something really outrageous or stupid. Now I think of them as the enablers, and in some cases the leaders, of this country's stampede toward socialism. If The One is elected, and manages to pack the court with more justices of the Ruth Ginsberg ilk, this is only going to get much worse...

The Banking Crisis, Explained...

Don't understand the recent banking crisis? Here it is, explained in a single, very easy-to-understand graphic.

Book of Obama...

Jeff Goldstein is feeling his oats; there's all kinds of tasty treats on Protein Wisdom these past few days. For example, he's rewritten the old parable about the ant and the grasshopper, as one chapter in the “Book of Obama”. I'll tease you with one passage, but then you'll need to go read the rest:

No worries, though, the grasshopper decided. For he was entitled to some of that corn, being hungry and all, and to deny him food was a moral failing on the part of the Ants, whose greed was so loathsome that it should be punished by those who respected social justice. So the grasshopper complained loudly to his leaders about this terrible inequity in food distribution.

And you won't regret just starting at the top and reading down...

Shockey Fire Update...

The fire down near Campo has been officially dubbed the “Shockey Fire”, presumably for its proximity to Shockey Truck Trail.

I just heard a report on the radio that's all good news: 70% containment, no movement, no growth, and the evacuation orders have been lifted. I don't think the fire fighters would have done that unless they were quite confident that they had the beast under control.

I think we all dodged a bullet on this one. But at the same time we got all this good news in East County, I heard about a new fire near I-5 and Las Pulgas Road, and another one near Rancho Bernardo.

I hates fire season and Santa Anas...

Update on Campo Fire...

Latest report is all good news: 50% containment, lots of air and ground crews working on it, confidence from the fire chief on continuing containment progress this morning, and still no injuries and no structures lost.

That is simply wonderful news!

Campo is still under evacuation orders, but this is now partly because of concerns about safety of basic services (power, etc.). SDG&E crews are already on the scene.

Update on Campo Fire...

The sun is just rising now, and at right is the view looking east from the Lyons Peak camera. The smoke from the Campo fire should be near the right side of the photo, on the horizon – but I can't see any yet. This might be because of the early morning lighting, or (hopefully) because the fire is still small.

I just heard an “eyeballs” report from Cal Walker on KOGO. He's their traffic reporter, but he just flew over the scene of the fire to get a first-hand report. He said that it was in very rocky terrain, quite different than the Harris Fire last year, and he was hopeful that the fire crews could quickly contain it. He also said that it was relatively small, and that if we hadn't all be so sensitized by the awful fires last year, this fire most likely would not be a major news event.

Thanks, Cal, for that level-headed report. Here's hoping that you're right about the fire crews getting a quick handle on it...

Dang - East County Fire...

It seems like we're not even allowed one Santa Ana without a fire in the East County...

This fire is out near Campo, just north of the U.S./Mexico border. It's not an immediate threat to us in the Jamul area, but that could change if the winds shift.

On the map at right, the orange shaded area is my estimate of where the fire is. I say “estimate” because the news reports are very sketchy, just saying that the fire started near the intersection of State 94 and Shockey Truck Trail, north of 94. The latest reports are that the fire has jumped 94 and is now mainly south of it (this makes sense, as the winds are from the northeast).

The latest report I heard on the radio is that there are no injuries, and no structures have been burned yet. However, over 300 homes have been evacuated and there are most definitely structures threatened. Also 94 has been closed between 188 (the road to Tecate) and Buckman Springs Road (just north of Campo). Owners of horses and other livestock are reportedly NOT being allowed in to get their animals.

If anyone reading this has personal knowledge of the fire, please drop me a line with any information you have...

Swinging...

Watch it to the end:


It took me a moment to realize that the swing seat is not connected with rope, but with solid (presumably wooden) poles. Otherwise this swinger's moves would not be possible...

Oh, the Hypocrisy!

We Americans get a lot of guff from certain European countries about the various and sundry evil ways we have, our miserable political system, our non-socialized health care, and so on. So it was with some bemusement that I read this, from the highlights of a Reader's Digest global poll on the U.S. Presidential race:

The majority in India (73%), South Africa (65%), the Netherlands (55%) and France (52%) would be interested in moving to the U.S. while about 70% of respondents in Poland, Russia, Indonesia, and Australia expressed a lack of interest in moving to the U.S.

The longer comment by the Reader's Digest on the topic:

Speaking of which, a majority of the French—the French!—express an interest in relocating to the United States. To some, this number might seem like a typographical error. Philippe Labro, a well-known French writer and filmmaker, told Reader's Digest that to the French, "the reality of the American Dream" is embedded in the life stories of both presidential candidates. "America is still that land of the second chance, of multiple opportunities, where anyone can succeed," he attests.

Well, what do you know about that? A majority of the insufferable French would rather live in the U.S. if they could. After all the grief they give us, this is just mind-bogglingly hypocritical!

The rest of the poll is very interesting as well...

Weather, and Other Things...

The graph at right shows the wind speeds at our home, in MPH (multiply by 1.6 to get KPH). The green line shows the running 5-minute average; the red line the peak gusts. Note that my wind sensor is a conventional rotating-cup anemometer, and is therefore not very responsive to very short gusts – something we seem to have a lot of in a Santa Ana wind condition.

You can see that the average wind today is much higher than normal (as was Saturday, though not quite as high as today). Still, compared to a “normal”, this is very mild. It's also a very cool Santa Ana – instead of temperatures in the 90°F (32°C), our high today was just 74°F (23°C). And that's just fine with me! About the most dangerous part of this Santa Ana is the very low relative humidity (as low as 2.1%RH today).

At right is the view from the Lyons Peak camera looking north (a view that includes our home). Those clear blue skies are what we want to see on a Santa Ana day – no nearby smoke plumes. However, toward the left side of the photo, just above the horizon, you can see an ugly gray smudge – this must be the fires on Camp Pendleton or in Los Angeles, far to the north of us.

As always, click on a photo to get a larger view...

Krugman Gets the Nobel...

From the news wire:

The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences announced Monday that Paul Krugman, professor of economics and international affairs at Princeton University, is the 2008 winner of The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel. The academy cited his work in analyzing "trade patterns and location of economic activity" and integrating "the previously disparate research fields of international trade and economic geography."

I am speechless. Google “Paul Krugman” and read some of his prolific ranting (I refuse to link to any of them). This proves the utter bankruptcy of the Nobel selection process. It has become an almost pure act of political correctness...

Amazing High-Speed Photography...

Here's collection of the work of some of the best and brightest photographers specializing in high-speed photography.

The example at right is by Jasper Nance. She likes to shoot bullets at various targets, in this case an orange.

The work of these photographers is a fascinating blend of art, science, and technology. Some combination of high shutter speeds and ultra-short burst flashes is required to capture these moments. Many of the photographers are (or have become) engineers skilled in the art of building this equipment. Ms. Nance, for example, designed and built her own flash system.

There are many more photos at the link above...

Fuel Moisture...

A couple of people wrote today to ask what I was talking about when I said “fuel moisture” in an earlier post.

First, there's a graph of the past week's fuel moisture on Lyons Peak at right. Click to enlarge it. On the sidebar at right, in the local information, is a link that will get you the most current graph.

The “fuel moisture” measurement being made here is the percentage of water (by weight) in dry, dead wood. The chaparral brush has a high percentage of such materials – I've pruned as much as 100 pounds of it out of a single manzanita tree. The water content is one of the primary determinants of fire danger. Wet or moist wood is harder to ignite, and burns cooler and slower. Extremely dry wood (less than 5% or 6% water) is more like gasoline in combustability – especially for the small diameter twigs that dominate the chaparral.

In the October 2007 fires, the fuel moistures were less than 3%. Combine that with hot, dry Santa Ana winds and you've got a recipe for disaster – as we all saw.

Incidentally (for you geeks out there), the sensor for fuel moisture is kind of interesting. You might expect it to be some kind of exotic semiconductor, or rare earth ceramic, or some such thing. Nope. It's a stick of wood, of standardized species, with no knots or flaws, attached to a sensitive electronic scale. As the wood absorbs moisture, it gets heavier, and vice versa. A somewhat fancier version measures the speed of sound through the wood (it gets faster as the moisture content goes up). In both cases, the stick must be replaced every year or two – apparently it wears out somehow!

Brrrr...

Now all you folks from chillier climes can start laughing right now. But by our Southern California standards, it's starting to get cold!

You can see from the chart at right that just four days ago we had very warm daytime high temperatures – the actual high was 97°F (36°C). Last night we got down to 41°F (5°C) – that's a pretty big swing in just a few days!

I've walked the dogs a couple times this morning, and I'm still shivering from the experience. We're actually having a Santa Ana wind right now, though it's a very mild and cold one. The winds haven't gotten over 25 MPH (40 KPH), so the fire danger hasn't been extreme. It is very dry, though – just 3% RH – but our fuel moistures are still above the extreme danger level.

But it's just the start of fire season...

Obama Could Still Lose...

...even though the polls have him all but annointed. In these times of financial turmoil, a bold idea that was good for the economy and that resonated with the public would let McCain snatch the lead back.

And I have just such a bold idea: McCain should announce that if elected, he will press Congress to pass a flat income tax at a 12% to 15% rate, with all income under (say) $25,000 excluded. The exact numbers aren't as important as the basic idea: a fair and balanced income tax constructed in a way that demonstrably stimulates business (the eastern European states provide the instance proof).

This idea has been polled very positively already, back when Steve Forbes was running. The positives on the flat tax were in the 80% range, much to the chagrin of the Democrats, for whom such a fair tax is anathema. The most fundamental premise underlying all of the Democratic ideology is the notion of wealth reddistribution – which our current progressive tax system does well, and which a flat tax does very poorly (though the excluded income does provide a degree of progressiveness).

I know several people who are on the fence between Obama and McCain, and I'd be willing to bet you that every one of them would flip to solidly in the McCain camp if he made such an announcement.

Ahhh, it will never happen, I know. But I can dream, can't I?