SDGE Proposal...

Recently SDG&E proposed to start making preemptive power cuts during especially high Santa Ana winds (estimated to be a once-in-three-years sort of event). The idea is to reduce the probability of downed power lines starting a fire. The map at right shows the areas where these cuts would take place. Jamul and Lawson Valley are well within the affected areas.

Those of us who live in the affected areas tend to have an immediate reaction of alarm. They're proposing to cut off our power at the very moment when we need it the most – while we're trying to protect our property from a rapidly advancing firestorm. If this proposal becomes actual policy, those of us who can afford it will most likely buy backup generators. Those of us who can't afford it will suddenly be at greater risk.

I don't have any personal knowledge of the probability that a downed power line could start a fire. I do recall that not so many years ago, a helicopter downed a power line near Julian and started the Pines fire. And during our most recent fires – just a year ago – several allegations of wind-blown power lines starting fires were made (these are the subject of the lawsuit mentioned above). What I don't know is the truth of the matter. If in fact there is substantial risk of wind-blown power lines starting fires, then the SDG&E proposal may in fact be worth considering. During one of our hellacious Santa Anas, anything that reduces fire risk is worth considering. I know that during those storms I get very upset when I see smokers outside, or a neighbor burning some brush...

The timing of SDG&E's proposal lends credence to the notion that their real goal is legislative relief from liability for powerline-caused fires. The lawsuit currently wending its way through the court system is exactly on this point.

On the other hand, as a business they have an obligation to their shareholders to mitigate risks. Certainly both the lawsuit (whether based on reality or not) and the possibility of wind-blown power lines starting fires are risks to their shareholders. So from their point of view, this proposal makes perfect sense.

So what's the right thing to do here? For me, the answer depends on a piece of information I don't have: whether strong Santa Ana winds really do have some real chance of causing fires by blowing down power lines. If the answer to that is “yes”, then I think they've got the right idea – and I'll start looking at backup generators. If the answer is “no”, then I think we should oppose this proposal – but give SDG&E that legislative relief from liability.

Do any of my readers know where I can find the answer to that question?

Worldometers...

Interesting set of realtime statistics at Worldometers...

Lamestream Media Parable...

My mom sent this along...

The Biker and the Lion

A biker is riding by the zoo, when he sees a little girl leaning into the lion's cage. Suddenly, the lion grabs her by the cuff of her jacket and tries to pull her inside to slaughter her, under the very eyes of her screaming parents.

The biker jumps off his bike, runs to the cage and hits the lion square on the nose with a powerful punch. Whimpering from the pain the lion jumps back letting go of the girl, and the biker brings her to her terrified parents, who thank him endlessly.

A New York Times reporter has watched the whole event. The reporter says, 'Sir, this was the most gallant and brave thing I ever saw a man do in my whole life.'

The biker replies, 'Why, it was nothing, really, the lion was behind bars. I just saw this little kid in danger, and acted as I felt was right.'

The reporter says, 'Well, I'm a journalist from the New York Times, and tomorrow's paper will have this story on the front page... So, what do you do for a living and what political affiliation do you have?'

The biker replies, 'I'm a U.S. Marine and a Republican.'

The following morning the biker buys the New York Times to see if it indeed brings news of his actions, and reads, on front page:

U.S. MARINE ASSAULTS AFRICAN IMMIGRANT AND STEALS HIS LUNCH!

With respect to political bias, the Grey Lady has gotten so bad in the last few years that I wouldn't be a bit surprised to see something much like this actually happen.

The Trip Home...

Our route home yesterday included the segment of U.S. 395 that stretches from the town of John Day to the Oregon/California border. All of these photos were taken along that stretch, which includes some tremendously varied flora, fauna, and geology. As always, click on a thumbnail to get a larger version. Counting from left-to-right and top-to-bottom, here are a few comments on the photos:

1. Between John Day and Burns, storm clouds over fields of grass...

2, 3, 4. Between John Day and Burns, white birch in their fall colors...

5. Stretch of U.S. 395 south of Burns, looking south down the rift-made steppes and into the storm...

6. South of Burns, looking north along U.S. 395, with a shadowed rift escarpment visible under the brooding storm clouds...

7. Lake Abert, a mineral-laden alkalai lake under the Abert Rift escarpment. The lake is home to many migratory and resident birds, including geese, phalaropes, and avocets. The plains are home to prong-horn antelope, deer, and elk. The escarpment is home to a large population of bighorn sheep. There is much more life here than one might imagine when zipping by this high desert community of sage, pinyon pine, and desert cedar...

8. Prong-horn antelope, grazing without apparent concern in a farmer's field...

9, 10. Migratory cranes, which gathered by the hundreds in many different places along our route...

Race...

Race is a purebred Border Collie, six months old and completely untrained (in anything, not just agility). He arrived in our household early this morning. Already he's the playful companion of our three field spaniels, and starting to get introduced to our cats. We've seen no bad behaviors (aggressiveness, shyness, etc.) to worry about at all, which is a very pleasant surprise. He slept in a crate last night with no problems, another very pleasant surprise.

Today Debbie started his training. He's getting a little crate training and some real basic obedience stuff. He's a fast learner – Debbie's having great fun with him already.
Here are a few first-day photos of Race...

Checking In...

At 2:15 this morning, Debbie and I rolled back into our yard. This marked the finish of a marathon road trip, from Jamul to John Day, Oregon, and back The purpose of this craziness? We picked up the newest addition to our menagerie: “Race” – a six month old Border Collie puppy.

We left early on Friday morning, and drove the 1100 miles to John Day in 19 hours. We met Angie and her son Clay (the young fellow who raised the litter of puppies Race was part of) that evening, and got Race. We also picked up Race's brother “Sarge”, whom we were delivering to another new owner in the Los Angeles area. Then we went to bed for a few hours, got up at 4 am on Saturday morning, had a wonderful breakfast cooked by Angie's mom, and then we were back on the road again by 6 am. Twenty hours and 1100 miles later, we rolled back into our yard.

You could say we were a little tired, but that wouldn't even begin to describe it.

More later, including some photos of Race and the trip...

Hard at Work...

From my wife:

On TV today a Democratic operative pointed out that when Obama holds a rally 25-30,000 people show up, whereas when McCain holds one he only draws 10-15,000.

The Republican spokesman replied, “That's because McCain's supporters are at work.”

Heh!

Mo'i Update...

Mo'i continues to do unreasonably well – his hair has now grown back enough to hide the square gray patch, and the incision has healed so well that it's now just barely visible.

Tomorrow Mo'i goes back to the vet for his two week checkup. The poor guy has spent the entire last two weeks in his crate, to enforce quiet and calm – he's going stir-crazy. Hopefully we will get the okay tomorrow to let the miserable mutt out of jail. If so, you can expect one very, very happy dog tomorrow night!

Correlation is Not Causation...

Found this little gem through Climate Skeptic. Just look at those two curves – obviously they are very closely correlated. Immediately the human mind leaps to the conclusion that one of them caused the other – but that seems quite unlikely in this case.

Because, you know, rock 'n roll songs really aren't very closely related to U.S. domestic oil production. Just sayin'...

Read the whole snarky thing...

Video Explanations...

A few days ago, a well-done video was posted up on YouTube explaining the origins of the current financial crisis. The video paid particular attention to the role of Congress in first mandating mortgages for non-creditworthy home buyers (they didn't call it this, of course – but that's what it was), and secondly in refusing to impose restrictions or even oversight when things started to go awry nearly ten years ago. Instead they did the opposite, mandating more of these “dodgy debts” – featuring new provisions even dodgier than the old ones (that's where things like the 120%, no down payment, no document mortgages came from).

I didn't bother linking the video because it had gone viral – every major blog (on both sides of the issue) was carrying it. But yesterday the video was pulled, ostensibly because of copyright violations (something not often encountered in political ads). Many who oppose Obama suspect foul play, or at least dirty tricks. Meanwhile, the video (slightly modified) is still available here – if you're one of the 14 people and 33 monkeys who haven't already seen it, do watch it...

On Palin vs. Biden...

Travis and Jonathan (of Red State Update) crack me up again:

Sarah Palin Interview...

No, not the one with Gibson, or the one with Couric – the one with Hugh Hewitt (which you'll never hear on the lamestream media). An excerpt:

Hugh Hewitt: Governor, let’s close with some foreign affairs. It is reported that you had an Israeli flag in your governor’s office. You wore an Israeli flag pin occasionally. One, is that true? And two, why your support for Israel?

Sarah Palin: Well, it is true, and I ran into Shimon Peres recently at a meeting, and he even pointed that out. He said I saw a picture of you on the internet, and you had an Israeli flag in your state government office, and I said I sure do. You know, my heart is with you. And all of those trials and tribulations throughout history that Israel has gone through, not only does that allow me to want to support that country, but Israel is our strongest and most important ally in the Middle East. And they are a democratic country who I believe deserves our support, and I know that John McCain believes as I do that Israel is our friend, and we need to be there to support them. They are there for us, and I do love that country.

Hugh Hewitt: Last question, Governor. Have you and Todd heard from your son? And how is it on your nerves having your son deployed?

Sarah Palin: That little stinker, I guess he’s called his girlfriend a couple of times, but can you believe he hasn’t called his momma yet? He’s over there. They were just leaving Kuwait heading into Iraq, and I am just so extremely proud of Track, my son, and all of the men and women, of course, serving in the military. I’m proud that my son made this independent and very wise decision as such a young man at 18, deciding you know, he realized there’s something he can do to help, to contribute, to help protect our nation, and I couldn’t be more proud of him and all those who choose to serve in our military. They’re serving for the right reasons. God bless them, God love them.

Nothing really significant about these answers, except (for me, at least) this aspect: she doesn't sound like a politician. She sounds like a normal human being. How refreshing!

And how very appealing right about now...

Dodgy Debt...

Leave it to the British comedians to hit the nail directly on the head when it comes to lampooning the current financial craziness:

Those Pesky Youths...

Says the Associated Press, last night:

ROMANS-SUR-ISERE, France (AP) - A French police officer was shot and wounded during clashes with youths that broke out after a teenager died while fleeing police, authorities said Tuesday.

The officer appeared to have been shot in the leg with a hunting rifle, said the police prefecture in Romans-sur-Isere, a southeastern town located 60 miles from Lyon in the Rhone Valley on the edge of the Alps. The officer's life was not in danger. Dents from bullets and buckshot were also found in police vehicles nearby.

Police used tear gas and rubber pellets to push back some 50 youths during clashes late Monday and early Tuesday. Several cars were burned and about 15 shop windows were smashed.

After nightfall Tuesday, some 300 riot police officers and gendarmes took up positions around the center of town to prevent a second night of clashes. Some teams of officers were brought in from neighboring regions.

Most Americans remain blissfully unaware that France has been suffering through over three years of violent nightly rioting. That's right, every single night. According to several of my friends in Europe, most Europeans are also unaware of the rioting, or at least the magnitude of it – both because of careful reporting and general apathy. The primary reported feature of this rioting is cars being burned – sometimes only a few dozen in a night, sometimes hundreds.

Yesterday a policeman was shot. This level of violence is relatively rare, happening only a few times in the entire period.

Here's the really disturbing part about these reports, whether they come from the Associated Press or Reuters (a French company!): because of self-imposed rules supporting multi-culturalism, they refuse to report a rather obviously salient fact. No matter how many of these reports I read (and I've read hundreds), the two mainsteam reporting agencies never tell you that the “youths” who are rioting are, in fact, radicalized Muslims – primarily young, jobless men from the ghettoized slums of France's cities. You'll only find that out from independent reporters, local bloggers, and the like.

The reality, which appears when you get your news outside the mainstream: for more than 1,000 nights now, one or more cities in France has seen rioting by radical Muslim youths. The overall level of rioting, if one can grasp such a concept, rises and falls according to recent events. The mobs' favorite targets are cars – those obvious symbols of wealth that the rioters, by and large, do not possess. A distant second on their list of targets are the shops, another symbol of wealth and prosperity. That would be the wealth and prosperity of those non-Muslims, of course.

All the Little Children...

Now here's something that struck me as deeply creepy and disturbing – a modern-day American version of the kind of manipulation of children that I used to associate with regimes like North Korea, the Soviet Union, or Nazi Germany. Now Obama's campaign supporters join that little gang in my mind:


And according to what I've read about this, the financial support for this little production comes from the president of NBC.

I'll bet the people who produced this video thought it was really sweet and cute. I'll bet they have absolutely no idea what shudders of disgust and horror it produces in viewers with a little knowledge of history. And I'll bet they have never heard of the pervasive indoctrination of children that so characterizes such awful tyrannies...

Pro and Con...

The recent shenanigans with the bailout made me remember this little gem:

If con is the opposite of pro, then Congress is the opposite of Progress.

Quite.

If anyone knows who first said that, let me know – I've not been able to find a source...

Quote of the Day...

Apropos of my earlier post, Mark Steyn says:

As a general proposition, when told by unanimous elites that a particular course of action is urgent and necessary to avoid disaster, there's a lot to be said for going fishing.

Bailout and Meltdown Thoughts...

A number of you have asked what my opinion is on the bailout proposal, and the threat of meltdown in the financial world. The short answer: I'm confused.

My confusion stems from this: the panic from Wall Street and Washington doesn't seem to jibe with anything I can observe myself. In other words, from where I sit I don't see any reason why Wall Street and Washington are panicking. All the usual measurements of economic health are looking good: the unemployment rate is near historic lows, inflation is low, lending rates are high, GNP is growing, etc., etc. Nothing looks like a recession is imminent, much less a depression.

So what is all this talk about a meltdown on Wall Street based on? Lots of very credible people, with lots of expertise in the markets, are acting very much like the world is about to end. I certainly understand that a number of big financial institutions are sitting on a bunch of bad debt. I understand that this started with mandates from Congress for mortgages to be made to people who really wouldn't qualify under rational rules, and that the machinery set up to allow these mortgages encouraged more and more risky mortgages to be made. What I don't understand is why this all adds up to the end of the world. Companies succeeding and failing is what capitalism is all about; it's the core of what makes our system work.

My instinctive reaction to the bailout is that it's a really, really bad idea. Fundamentally the companies that are in trouble now are in trouble because they managed risk badly. They took investors' money and made bad choices with how they invested it. In the natural capitalistic scheme of things, these companies should fail, their managers should be weeded out, and companies who made better choices should be rewarded with more business. Rescuing these badly managed companies distorts this natural capitalistic process by allowing the failures to survive, and removing the reward from the successful companies. The distortion might even be worse – it might end up that the rescued companies end up making large profits after the bailout, which is exactly the opposite of what should happen.

As many others have observed, the bailout smacks of socialism. It's the kind of thing one expects to see happen in France, not in the United States. Hell, it's the kind of thing we once laughed at France for...

Extreme Redneck Symptoms...

Courtesy of Simi L.:

1. You let your 14-year-old daughter smoke at the dinner table in front of her kids.
   
   
2. The Blue Book value of your truck goes up and down depending on how much gas is in it.
   
   
3. You've been married three times and still have the same in-laws.
   
   
4. You think a woman who is out of your league bowls on a different night.
   
   
5. You wonder how service stations keep their rest-rooms so clean.
   
   
6. Someone in your family died right after saying, 'Hey, guys, watch this.'
   
   
7. You think Dom Perignon is a Mafia leader.
   
   
8. Your wife's hairdo was once ruined by a ceiling fan.
   
   
9. Your junior prom offered day care.
   
   
10. You think the last words of the Star-Spangled Banner are 'Gentlemen, start your engines. '
    
    
11. You lit a match in the bathroom and your house exploded right off its wheels.
    
    
12. The Halloween pumpkin on your porch has more teeth than your spouse.
    
    
13. You have to go outside to get something from the fridge.
    
    
14. One of your kids was born on a pool table.
    
    
15. You need one more hole punched in your card to get a freebie at the House of Tattoos.
    
    
16. You can't get married to your sweetheart because there's a law against it.
    
    
17. You think loading the dishwasher means getting your wife drunk.

Thanks for the belly-laughs, Simi!

Executive Skills...

Nearly ever person I've met who has some executive experience would agree with this comment: that people without executive experience generally don't have the faintest idea what an executive does, or what skills are needed to be an effective executive. That would include executives, before they became executives.

Like most people with executive experience, I've got my own collection of “executive wisdom” and rules-of-thumb. For instance, I've often commented that one of the key skills for any executive is the simple willingness to make decisions in the face of insufficient or conflicting information. Most people are very uncomfortable making important decisions until they've had a chance to do all the research, to think about the pros and cons, consult with trusted advisors, and generally to have enough time to get comfortable with their decision. Executives often are forced to make decisions without any of these luxuries.

Another of my executive rules-of-thumb is “embrace chaos”, by which I mean that an executive should learn to relish the never-ending stream of surprises that the messy real world throws at you. Too often executives see these events as a stream of problems and annoyances, rather than as a stream of opportunities being presented (even if the only opportunity is to suffer less damage than your competitors!).

TigerHawk dissects another such executive skill, a better articulated version of my executive rule-of-thumb “Do something, even if it's wrong!”