Some Local Notes...

Yesterday (Sunday), Debbie and I took a drive through our local mountains – a drive that turned out to be full of surprises. Most of the surprises involved water. We knew, of course, that we've had good rainfall this year – and normally, the mountains get even more rainfall than we do. But the difference between how the Cuyamaca Lake area looked two weeks ago and how it looks now is simply stunning. The lake itself has expanded so that its northern and eastern extents nearly meet the Sunrise Highway. We haven't seen this for years and years. My guess is that it's just 4 to 6 feet below the spillway.

Furthermore, everywhere we went (which included the entire length of Boulder Creek Road), we saw every stream running, most ponds full or nearly full, and standing water in places that we don't remember ever seeing standing water before. We could be in for a beautiful wildflower season this year, even if we don't get any more rain – and we're almost certain to get more!

This evening, in the dwindling light as I write this, our hummingbird feeders are chock-full-of-hummers – about 20 in all right now. It won't be long now until we are back to our 20+ pounds of sugar per month!

Puzzler...

Well, not very many people attempted to answer last week's puzzler – but everyone who did got it right. What is the middle name of a former U.S. Senator who started his career as a gambling judge, and ended it as a shamed, alcoholic Senator? The answer is Raymond, as in Senator Joseph Raymond McCarthy.

This week's puzzler is back to science. In the chaparral where I live, it's very common – normal, in fact – to find large areas where most of the commonest plants (manzanita, ceonothus, etc.) have a very narrow distribution of size. For instance, where I live nearly all of the manzanita specimens are between 4 and 8 feet high. In most other plant communities, you'll find a much broader distribution of sizes. Why are chaparral plants so uniform in size?

In The Clouds...

That's where we are this morning – and no, we haven't gone on a trip. The latest rain storm has apparently arrived, and our house is now in the clouds. We can just barely see across the valley, and a heavy mist is wetting everything in sight. Sometimes it's drizzling very softly. Every leaf is covered with droplets; very beautiful.

Chaparral in the mist...

Spring Birds...

Walking into our driveway this morning (after a delightful walk into our local hills) we spotted two pairs of bluebirds. They're here two or three weeks early this year; I've no idea why. Just a couple of weeks ago I hung six new bluebird houses up on our pine trees. With any luck at all, we'll have a few families this year (had two last year).

Over the past few days, we've spotted both male and female Anna's hummingbirds at our feeders. That's also a few weeks earlier than usual...

Rain Report...

The storm that ended yesterday dropped a total of 1.6 inches of rain on us – just as the spring growth is starting to push up in cleared areas. Another storm – possibly even larger – is due in tonight and tomorrow. I just checked the desert wildflower reports, and they are reporting that green shoots of wildflower plants are up to 5 inches tall. Very few flowers yet, but it looks like we could have an unusually prolific show this year...

A Parable...

Via my mom:

The Haircut

One day a florist goes to a barber for a haircut. After the cut he asked about his bill and the barber replies, 'I cannot accept money from you. I'm doing community service this week.' The florist was pleased and left the shop.

When the barber goes to open his shop the next morning there is a 'thank you' card and a dozen roses waiting for him at his door.

Later, a cop comes in for a haircut, and when he tries to pay his bill, the barber again replies, 'I cannot accept money from you. I'm doing community service this week.' The cop is happy and leaves the shop.

The next morning when the barber goes to open up there is a 'thank you' card and a dozen donuts waiting for him at his door.

Later that day, a college professor comes in for a haircut, and when he tries to pay his bill, the barber again replies, 'I cannot accept money from you. I'm doing community service this week.' The professor is very happy and leaves the shop.

The next morning when the barber opens his shop, there is a 'thank you' card and a dozen different books, such as 'How to Improve Your Business' and 'Becoming More Successful'.

Then, a Congressman comes in for a haircut, and when he goes to pay his bill the barber again replies, 'I cannot accept money from you. I'm doing community service this week.' The Congressman is very happy and leaves the shop.

The next morning when the barber goes to open up, there are a dozen Congressmen lined up waiting for a free haircut.

And that, my friends, illustrates the fundamental difference between the citizens of our country and the members of our Congress.

Vote carefully this year.

As the Instapundit would say: heh.

Rain!!!

Our unusually wet rainy season continues. In the past few hours, we've had nearly another half inch of rain, and it's still raining now. I just took a short drive to see what the condition of the roads and the creeks is. The creeks are already rising, just a few hours after the rain commenced – this tells us that our ground is quite saturated, and even a small amount of rain immediately runs off. The road edges are full of running water, and in several places we have mud and gravel deposits. When we first moved out here, nearly ten years ago, such events were quite routine. Now they seem novel...but very welcome...

Where Obama Would Take Us...

My readers know well how I detest the thought of a government-run healthcare system. So, in the interest of balance, I bring you an article from a news organization with the opposite view (the New York Times):

Although the government is reluctant to discuss the issue, hopscotching back and forth between private and public care has long been standard here for those who can afford it. But a few recent cases have exposed fundamental contradictions between policy and practice in the system, and tested its founding philosophy to its very limits.

One such case was Debbie Hirst’s. Her breast cancer had metastasized, and the health service would not provide her with Avastin, a drug that is widely used in the United States and Europe to keep such cancers at bay. So, with her oncologist’s support, she decided last year to try to pay the $120,000 cost herself, while continuing with the rest of her publicly financed treatment.

By December, she had raised $20,000 and was preparing to sell her house to raise more. But then the government, which had tacitly allowed such arrangements before, put its foot down. Mrs. Hirst heard the news from her doctor.

“He looked at me and said: ‘I’m so sorry, Debbie. I’ve had my wrists slapped from the people upstairs, and I can no longer offer you that service,’ ” Mrs. Hirst said in an interview.

This describes one of the many inevitable problems with a non-competitive healthcare system. In short, in England you have a choice: you can either have free government-supplied healthcare (but you have to live – or die – with their restrictions and limitations), or you can pay for all of your healthcare yourself. You can't participate in the national healthcare system, but pay for your own extras. Oh, no. That would be so unfair – to have better healthcare simply because you can afford it!

The commonly-held notion that healthcare would be better if the government ran it is so risible on its face that I stumble trying to rebut it. Can you think of anything that the government runs better than private industry? Let's see...

Post Office? I don't think so!

Education? Gimmee a break!

Street repair? Surely you jest...

(add your own 35 examples – it isn't hard to do!)

So why does anyone believe that government-run healthcare would be better? I just don't get it...

The End Days...

I never thought of this as a consquence of Hillary losing the Democratic nomination:

How does Supreme Court Justice Hillary Clinton sound?

It sounds superb to us. Freed of the constraints of "triangulating" political considerations that have hobbled and severely compromised her progressive values, a seat on the Supreme Court would be an ideal way for Clinton to help steer our Constitution back to its original moorings. Without having to worry about voting based on future campaign strategy, she would be liberated to impact America in a profoundly positive way.

Via BuzzFlash (a prominent liberal news/opinion site).

This is profoundly disturbing on way too many levels. The worst part is that as a Supreme Court Justice, she would actually have real power to influence this nation's future. I can't believe I'm saying this, but...if I had to choose between President Hillary and Justice Hillary, the former sounds ever so much safer.

Sheesh. I need a drink!

Shootdown!

Via the WSJ:

A Navy missile soaring 130 miles above the Pacific Ocean smashed a dying U.S. spy satellite late Wednesday night and appears to have destroyed a tank carrying 1,000 pounds of potentially lethal rocket fuel, bringing a dramatic end to a weeks-long controversy over the military's unusual decision to shoot down one of its own satellites.

Pentagon officials said they were optimistic that the missile had struck the satellite, which had stopped working almost immediately after entering earth orbit in December 2006. But they said that U.S. officials needed time to assess whether the strike had also destroyed the satellite's supply of hydrazine, a toxic fuel that causes lung damage and can be lethal if inhaled in large enough quantities.

"A network of land-, air-, sea- and spaced-based sensors confirms that the U.S. military intercepted a non-functioning National Reconnaissance Office satellite which was in its final orbits before entering the earth's atmosphere," the Pentagon said in a written statement. "Confirmation that the fuel tank has been fragmented should be available within 24 hours."

The technology involved in this shootdown is really quite amazing. The “warhead” on this missile was a “kinetic interceptor” – a fancy term that just means that a small, heavy object rammed into the target at a very high relative speed. All the energy needed to destroy the target came from the impact of the kinetic interceptor – no explosives or shrapnel was invovled. To pull this off, the intercepting missile had to steer its warhead with astonishing accuracy directly into the refrigerator-sized target at a closing speed of many thousands of feet per second.

The Russians have accused the U.S. of using this event as a way to conduct a veiled test of the missile system. It would be absurd to think that we wasted a satellite worth hundreds of millions of dollars simply to provide a test target. But if the Russians are accusing us of taking advantage of an opportunity that presented itself, well, they're probably right. But so what? Do they expect us to believe that they would refrain from taking advantage of a similar opportunity? Hah!

The only thing going on here is that Putin's beligerent Russia is taking advantage of a propaganda opportunity, with the willing assistance of the despicable Western lamestream media...

Obama versus McCain...

The 2008 Presidential race is starting to firm up as being a Obama versus McCain faceoff. Early in the race (I'm talking about, oh, four whole months ago!), I'd have estimated the probability of this particular ballot as vanishingly small. Now it appears to be our reality.

From where I sit, that looks like a race with little to recommend either candidate. The overriding issue for me remains the war on terror (meaning, more precisely, the worldwide struggle between secular free democracies and radical fundamentalist Islamists). On this issue there is a clear difference in the candidates' articulated positions, though I'm not so sure they'd be much different in practice.

McCain has consistently advocated a robust reaction to any affront by the terrorists, and has shown zero inclination to appease them. The only concern I have about him is his apparent squeamishness about aggressive interrogations, but this is a small nit in the grand scheme.

Obama, on the other hand, has consistently advocated withdrawal from any foreign entanglements, the use of international organizations (especially the U.N.) in consensus actions, the treatment of terrorism as a police problem, and appeasement on nearly all fronts.

From my perspective, Obama's stated positions are, in effect, a set of blueprints for moving the United States from a superpower and a force for good in the world to a second-rate, overwhelmed power and a beggar for the world's help. But would Obama actually behave the way he talks? First of all, his ability to actually effect the positions he espouses are constrained rather tightly by this document we have called the Constitution. All Presidents have, actually, very limited power. President Bush didn't go into Iraq on his own -- people forget, but he actually had the backing of an overwhelming majority of Congress. Then, perhaps even more importantly, once a President Obama was in office, his political calculus (and I'm certain that's what drives both he and McCain) would change dramatically. Now he's trying to get himself selected as the Democratic candidate, so his rhetoric is tuned to that left-leaning group. Once he was in office, his actions are more important than his rhetoric, and he'll be trying to gain the approval of the entire United States electorate, not just the Democrats. It seems unlikely that he would even want to match his future actions to his current rhetoric, even if he was permitted that luxury by Congress.

Once I get past the war on terror, the articulated positions (and track record, in the case of McCain) would have me lean toward McCain -- if it wasn't for my impression of the man's personality and power hunger. He strikes me as borderline insane and profoundly corrupt in the normal political sense (that is, his positions are held less from an actual belief in something than from a belief they'd get him votes). Obama, on the other hand, seems to be practically all talk and almost no substance. And what little “substance” we've been allowed to see is of a socialist nature, somewhere off to the left of Teddy Kennedy. I suspect it's entirely insincere and almost entirely impossible to pay for. In other words, it's the same profound corruption in the normal political sense: he says whatever he thinks he needs to say in order to get elected.

So what will I do when faced with a choice between McCain and Obama? I'm not 100% sure yet, but my inclination at the moment is to stay home and play my favorite music as my country takes a step off the path of greatness...

Anyone Still Having Blog Problem?

It's been working reliably for me now, for about four days straight. I haven't had any reports of problems since Monday. My reader statistics are back up to normal (they were almost zero for two weeks). If anybody has had problems since Monday, please let me know in the comments.

Castro Resigns...

Here's an excerpt from his letter to the people:

To my dearest compatriots, who have recently honored me so much by electing me a member of the Parliament where so many agreements should be adopted of utmost importance to the destiny of our Revolution, I am saying that I will neither aspire to nor accept — I repeat, I will neither aspire to nor accept — the positions of President of the State Council and Commander in Chief.

You can read the whole thing here.

He'll still be a looming presence over the Cuban body politic, and it's almost certain that his younger brother Raul will be selected to replace him. I'm not expecting any dramatic changes, unless somehow Castro's resignation motivates the Cuban people to revolt. At this point, after over fifty years of heavy-handed Communist rule, the state's instruments of power are stable institutions – and therefore very difficult to remove. Without external help, it would take something of a miracle for a democratic state to emerge...

Wartime Letters...

Not from the Iraq War – but from World War II. This is a fascinating series of letters written by Edward Ryan, who was an engineer in Patton's Third Army. They make very interesting reading for anyone curious about those times...

Fixed?

I hesitate to even say this out loud, but…I haven't had a problem accessing my blog for 48 hours now. I've still had no feedback from Google, so I can't be certain that a problem was actually found and fixed. However, this is the first time in two weeks that I've gone two entire days without having trouble accessing the blog, so I'm hopeful that something has actually changed for the better…

Americans On The Move...

Every year, United Van Lines publishes a study of internal American migration patterns, using the data from their own moving jobs. The map at right is their own cut at analysis for 2007, showing states with the high inbound moves and high outbound moves, by percentage. This is an interesting view, but not the only one.

So I grabbed the raw data (which United Van Lines makes available at the link above) and did a slightly different analysis, based on absolute numbers. Here's the result:

The top five states that people are moving into (by the actual number of people), in order: North Carolina, Texas, Arizona, Oregon, South Carolina.

The top five states that people are moving out of (by the actual number of people), in order: Michigan, New York, Illinois, New Jersey, Ohio.

These data are biased in a couple of known ways: it excludes all immigration, and it excludes many people who can't afford to move via moving companies (especially younger people). Until the last few years, illegal immigration (which is far larger than legal immigration) was predominantly into the southern border states; that has changed, as many illegal immigrants are now heading to the midwest and the east coast.

Nevertheless, these data show an interesting cut at American migration patterns. If what you really want to see is where Americans go to live when they have a choice (that is, when they can afford it), there's probably no better set of data to look at.

And if you look at these data through a political prism, there's an interesting trend: people are moving out of areas dominated by liberals, and into areas dominated by conservatives (with the single exception of Oregon).

A Valentine's Day to Remember...

Debbie and I have been married for almost 27 years. At this point, I'm a fairly well-trained husband when it comes to Valentine's Day – I know that if I don't come up with some hugs, kisses, whispered sweet nothings, a nice box of candy and some flowers, I'm a dead man (or will wish I was). I've also learned that I should expect the day to be all about the woman in my life, and not about me. And that's ok with me, because I've never had any particular expectations of the day.

So I was very surprised when I arrived home on Valentine's Day. First of all, the day was dramatic: it was snowing as I pulled into the driveway, and a blanket of white covered our house and yard. But when I walked in the door, I saw a spectacularly set table, with a bottle of champagne icing, rose petals strewn over the table cloth (I'm serious!), and a beautiful appetizer of fresh mozzerella, basil, and tomatoes – and a loaf of potato rosemary bread, with olive oil and basalmic vinegar. On our woodstove was a gigantic bouquet of fresh flowers, with some especially beautiful red gladiolas. Wow!

And it got even better. I had stopped at a fish market to get some fresh scallops, and Debbie made her signature broiled scallop appetizer, which we ate along with steamed young asparagus. And as if that wasn't enough, she made a spectacular bread pudding, all custardy on the inside and covered with a crust of pecans, brown sugar, and cinnamon. Double wow!

I suspect this may be a once-in-twenty-years sort of event, but if not I might learn to actually look forward to Valentine's Day!

Quote of the Day...

In referece to Hillary Clinton:

At a minimum, a head of state should have a head.

So says Vladimir Putin.

Well. You can't really disagree with him, can you?

All the same, that's a little more crude and direct than heads of state usually are...

Nightmare...

Circulating via email right now:

Last night I had the strangest dream. It was so real, so life-like and so vivid I woke up in a cold sweat and said "Not On Sunday".

Let me describe it to you briefly...

1. Hillary wins the Democratic Party nomination for President of the United States

2. Naturally, she wants to choose as her running mate someone with a lot of knowledge and experience in government and foreign affairs, someone who is a seasoned campaigner who could bring a lot of strength to the ticket. Who better than Bill, her husband?!!?

3. Hill and Bill go on to win the election in November and the Democrats maintain control of the House and the Senate.

4. Hillary is sworn in as President on January 20, 2009. The next day, after all the inauguration parties are over, she calls a press conference to make an announcement: she is resigning as President!!! Bill, as the Vice President, immediately becomes President!!! This is all perfectly legal under the 22nd Amendment the Constitution, for it states that no person "may be elected as President more than twice". Bill is not being elected for a third term but is merely serving out the remainder of Hillary's term --- all 4 years of it.

5. But wait! There's more! The following day Bill calls a press conference to make an announcement. He has chosen someone to fill the now vacant Vice President Position. Guess who he picks? Why, Hillary, of course!!!

Now you stay awake and let me get some sleep !!!!!!!

As best I can tell, the scenario described above is, in fact, completely legal. There's a good discussion of the issues on Snopes; it looks to me as though Bill as VP is technically legal but quite likely to be unacceptable to the electorate (I hope!), Hillary resigning is certainly legal, but unlikely if my perceptions about her desire for power are correct, and the notion of Hillary being appointed VP is legal but exceedingly unlikely.

But all of this is probably moot, given the current political winds – Obama looks like he's going to win the Democratic nomination in a landslide. You might think I'd be happy about that, but Obama's apparent emptiness scares me. I'm afraid he's all show and no substance – and he's unabashedly a proponent of pulling out of Iraq unconditionally and immediately, and of treating the war on terror as a “police operation”. These are not comforting or hopeful positions to me, and the change they represent is not a positive one...

Rain and Snow...

Yesterday a storm hit the San Diego area, dropping 3/4" of rain on us, along with some sleet and even snow. As I arrived home from work, big sloppy-wet snowflakes were falling, and our yard was covered in a thin sheet of white. This morning the temperature is hovering around the freezing point, and much of the thin snow blanket is still there.

The most interesting thing about this storm was how it caught the weather forecasters completely by surprise. Even 24 hours before the storm hit, there was no hint of precipitation at all in the forecast.

If the weather forecasters can't even get tomorrow's forecast right, how much confidence should I have in those who forecast global warming over the next few decades?