Thursday, August 2, 2007

Fortress Update

The astonishing and unexpected progress continues! Despite the masons taking the day off (because of the uncertainty about the inspection time), a lot was accomplished. Ruben (my contractor) and the inspector showed up within moments of each other, before 8 am. A few minutes later, after some minor difficulty locating the rebar schedule (the specification for the size of the rebar) on the design drawing, we were approved – we passed the inspection!

Next came the really surprising part… I can't help but think of Ruben as the absolute master of procrastination – eight months of zero activity will do that to you. But today, after the pleasant surprise of an early-in-the-day inspection (passed!), Ruben turned into the whirling dervish of Jamul. With a few phone calls, he arranged for the delivery of the remaining materials we need for construction, for delivery this afternoon of the 3.5 yards of concrete needed for the next pour, for Carlos (the concrete pumper) this afternoon, and for the masons to show back up tomorrow. Whew!

Even better – the material actually showed up, Carlos arrived and set up his pump, and the concrete arrived on time. Moments later, Carlos started pumping concrete into the voids inside the concrete blocks already laid. This operation is called a “grout lift” – the “grout” means filling the holes in the blocks with concrete, and the “lift” refers to filling the blocks up only to a certain height (five feet, in this case). The reason for limiting a grout lift to five feet is to limit the hydraulic pressure acting on the lower runs of block being filled – if the lift were made high enough (say, 10 feet), the pressure might be high enough to burst those blocks. What a mess that would be, with concrete running out all over the place!

Tomorrow Davy starts early in the morning, putting up the last 7 runs of block. He and his sons should be finished with that in two or three days of work. After that, they'll begin installing the form and rebar for pouring the last grout lift (which will fill the new blocks they're about to lay) and the pour for the roof. My estimate is that we'll make that pour next Wednesday or Thursday. Woo hoo!

The Blob

The unions who represent federal employees love to spin the image of their members as selfless civil servants, making sacrifices like long hours and low pay in order to (patriotically, of course) serve their country.

Don't you believe it!

The new data for 2006 show that 1.8 million federal civilian workers earned an average $111,180 in total compensation (wages plus benefits). That is more than double the $55,470 average earned by U.S. workers in the private sector.

Looking just at wages, federal workers earned an average $73,406, which is 60 percent greater than the $45,995 average earned by private sector workers.

The full report has much more detail.

At the same time that compensation for Federal employees is soaring, so is the percentage of the work force employed by the government. In 2006, the government employed 16% (20 of 128 million) of all employees.


We are slowly being transformed from a society of entrepreneurs with a small, idealistic government to a society that impedes entrepreneurs with a large, selfish government of leeches. This path leads to a bad place, similar to where Europe was a couple decades ago – and has been running away from ever since.

The more developed and entrenched our money-corrupted government becomes, the harder it becomes to throw the bums out. The recent earmark “reform” should be all the proof of this thesis that anyone needs – not only have the Democrats not followed through on their promise to clean up the corruption of earmarks, they're actually making it worse (mainly by eliminating any transparency on the earmarks at all).

Here's something for you to think about: in 2006, the government paid out 28% of all compensation paid in the U.S. What goods or services did those employees produce or provide? Not much, that's for sure.

Think leeches.

When leeches are sucking out your blood, do you leave them on your body so they can suck some more? No, of course not. You remove them.

We need to remove the government leeches. Short of a revolution, that can only happen as a political process: we must elect Representatives, Senators, and a President who are committed to reducing the size of government. Traditionally in our two-party system, that has been the position of the Republicans. In the last few years, it is not the position of either party.

We need a new party, before the Blob of Federal Leeches sucks out every bit of life this country has. Where is this new party going to come from? It seems unlikely to me that a brandy-new party could successfully be started from scratch. More likely is the emergence of a reformer from within an existing party who can transform the party's purpose. Given their respective ideologies, that seems much more likely from the Republican side. As I look at the announced and possible 2008 Presidential candidates there, limiting myself to those that have any realistic prayer of success, I come up with only two names (Fred Thompson and Newt Gingrich), and I'm not real sure about either one of them…

Wednesday, August 1, 2007

Fortress Update

Another day with great progress on our safe-house! Davy and his 14 year old son Alfredo (at right) worked a long day today, and actually they're still hard at work as I write this. They're going to finish up the seventh run of block, where the wall will be just shy of five feet high.

For some reason that I don't fully understand (and probably never will), the County planning department requires an inspection when the wall is no higher than five feet high. So now all work on the project must come to a crashing halt, while we wait for the inspector to show up tomorrow. Since we have no idea when the inspector will show up (they give us no clue at all), Davy and his sons will work on another job tomorrow. Hopefully they will return to the job on Friday – assuming, of course, that we pass the inspection tomorrow.

The work done today was essentially a continuation of yesterday's process. I saw just a couple of new techniques. Davy used a piece of scrap lumber I had laying about, with a few blocks, to make a perfectly usable scaffold. If I understood him correctly, on future days when the wall is considerably higher, he'll bring a real scaffold to the work site. And I saw a simple and clever tool: a pair of cast metal pieces designed to grasp the top of the blocks on a corner while holding a string in exactly the right place to act as a guide for laying the block. With these tools, Davy had a guide string set for each new run with just a few seconds of work.

Here are some more photos of today's progress:

Scary Socialized Medicine

My mom sent me an email copy of an interesting commentary piece by a person whose name I recognized: Dr. David Gratzer. He's a Canadian doctor, practicing in both the U.S. and Canada, and a crusader for capitalist (e.g., for-profit) medicine. Here's a quote from this latest piece, which appeared in Investor's Business Daily:

Swinging open the door, I stepped into a nightmare: the ER overflowed with elderly people on stretchers, waiting for admission. Some, it turned out, had waited five days. The air stank with sweat and urine. Right then, I began to reconsider everything that I thought I knew about Canadian health care.

I soon discovered that the problems went well beyond overcrowded ERs. Patients had to wait for practically any diagnostic test or procedure, such as the man with persistent pain from a hernia operation whom we referred to a pain clinic — with a three-year wait list; or the woman with breast cancer who needed to wait four months for radiation therapy, when the standard of care was four weeks.

Government researchers now note that more than 1.5 million Ontarians (or 12% of that province's population) can't find family physicians. Health officials in one Nova Scotia community actually resorted to a lottery to determine who'd get a doctor's appointment.

These problems are not unique to Canada — they characterize all government-run health care systems.

Dr. Gratzer is particularly good at rebutting the arguments of liberals who cite the “evils” of American medicine (think Michael Moore and Sicko). For example:

Americans live 75.3 years on average, fewer than Canadians (77.3) or the French (76.6) or the citizens of any Western European nation save Portugal. Health care influences life expectancy, of course. But a life can end because of a murder, a fall or a car accident. Such factors aren't academic — homicide rates in the U.S. are much higher than in other countries.

In The Business of Health, Robert Ohsfeldt and John Schneider factor out intentional and unintentional injuries from life-expectancy statistics and find that Americans who don't die in car crashes or homicides outlive people in any other Western country.

And if we measure a health care system by how well it serves its sick citizens, American medicine excels. Five-year cancer survival rates bear this out. For leukemia, the American survival rate is almost 50%; the European rate is just 35%. Esophageal carcinoma: 12% in the U.S., 6% in Europe. The survival rate for prostate cancer is 81.2% here, yet 61.7% in France and down to 44.3% in England — a striking variation.

If you have even the slightest inclination to support socialized medicine, or any legislation that reduces the independence or profitability of American medicine, please … read the whole thing. Another relevant commentary piece (in the Wall Street Journal) is here, an index of Dr. Gratzer's essays here, and his books here.

In my travels I have had the opportunity to meet and get to know quite a few people who live in countries with socialized medicine – especially in England, Germany, Estonia, and Russia. In each of these countries, I have posed a similar question to several people: “Suppose your spouse or child had a life-threatening cancer. Suppose that you were independently wealthy and could afford to have your loved one cared for anywhere in the world. Where would you take him or her for treatment?” Every single person I have asked this question of instantly said “America”.

Why is this so obvious to the people who live under socialized medicine? Most of the people I talked with had never even been to America – and yet they are absolutely certain our medical system delivers superior care. When I probed this, the typical answers were variants of “our system is so bad that America's must be better” and “America is where all the rich people go, and they'd know better than I”, with a few “I have friends or relatives who have moved to America, and they tell me the medical system is wonderful there”.

But our liberals tell us – against all evidence that I'm aware of
(not to mention common sense!) – that socialized medicine is superior.

My mom's reaction to this editorial was to suspect it was exaggerated, but generally on target. I'm glad her instincts are to suspect the evils of socialist medicine. But I cannot for the life of me understand why so many Americans (including my mom) have so much trouble believing just how bad socialized medicine really is. For me, the essential problems are obvious: (1) any system in which a desirable good or service is “free” will inevitably lead to shortages and rationing, and (2) any system that does not provide financial incentives for success and excellence will decay into shoddiness. Our public education system suffers from these two problems. Socialized medicine, everywhere I've ever been, suffers from them as well. Examples of drug rationing, surgery backlogs (a form of rationing), and diagnostics rationing abound. Doctors – especially the good ones – flee from those countries to America, where they can make good money. Why is this so hard for so many Americans to absorb? I cannot fathom it.

Tuesday, July 31, 2007

Fortress Update

I still can't quite wrap my brain around the fact that our safe-house is actually being built. After eight months of inactivity, suddenly (and completely inexplicably) my contractor has decided to finish the job. I mentioned earlier that I witnessed my contractor negotiating the job with the masons. Later I got to know the masons just a little bit better. It's a family affair: a father and his two sons. The father's name is Davey (at right, just before going home for the day); the older son Eduardo. I checked in a few times during the day today to see what progress there was, and if anything was needed. Each time, it was a pleasure to watch these men work – they clearly have a lot of experience as masons, and the way they make the job look effortless is a testament to their skills.

The work started with some careful measuring and calculating. From what I could tell, the main objectives of all this was to figure out exactly how many blocks were required on each layer (“run”) of blocks, to figure out where their outer edges should lie on the slab, and to make sure the vertical pieces of rebar were all in the right place to poke through the holes in the block. A complicating factor was the doorway; one piece of rebar had to be bent slightly to make that work. Then the tangible work commenced: they laid a first run of block down all around the building.

It was fascinating to watch carefully how the masons laid those blocks. They make it look so easy! The starting point was a single block, set down into a lot more mortar than was actually needed. Davey tapped this block gently into position, paying the most attention to the height of the block (I suppose to make sure the grout thickness underneath was correct). This block's height then became the reference height for all the rest of the blocks.

For all the subsequent blocks, the masons followed a pattern. First the blocks were set on end near where they'd be used. Then they would put some grout (again, much more than actually needed) on the top end. Next they would lay down heavy lines of grout on the slab (or later, on the underlying row of block) where the blocks would go. Then, one at a time, the upended blocks were turned sideways and set roughly into place. Then Davey would work his magic, carefully maneuvering the block by gentle taps until it was in exactly the right place, as determined by eyeball, straight-edge, and level. The last step was performed by the youngest son: cleaning up and removing the excess grout from the inside of the joints (as you can see in the photo above right).

Thinking like a nerdy engineer for a moment, it was interesting to note that he moved that block with all six classical degrees of freedom: forward/backward, left/right, up/down, and rotation about all three of those axes. That's quite a feat of spatial manipulation, but he made it look effortless and easy. I know darned well that were I to attempt such a thing, the result wouldn't be nearly as pretty…

On every second run of block, something slightly different occurs: a horizontal piece of rebar is run through all the blocks. They accomplished this by manually notching the three lengthwise segments of every block on that run. At right you can see Eduardo making cuts in those segments; later the youngest boy uses a hammer to carefully knock them out. After one of these notched runs is complete, the masons bend rebar as required to run it completely around the wall.

By the third run of block, there was very little of the original vertical rebar pieces left showing. Yet the plans call for vertical rebar running all the way up the wall. On asking, I found out that this requirement will be satisfied by placing vertical pieces of rebar in place when the wall is completely built. This is much easier than trying to thread every block through 8 feet or so of rebar!

At right you can see Davy using the level as he completes a corner. This extra care is need to make sure that the runs of block along each wall meet up on the corners correctly. I watched him do this several times; he's not satisfied until the error is invisibly small.

The end result is a perfect block wall. Well, at least it is perfect within the capacity of my eyeballs to detect error: I cannot see anything out of whack on these walls. In the photo at right, you can see the first three runs on the south wall – everything about it appears to be straight as an arrow and perfectly aligned.

Davey and his sons are due back on the job at 7:30 am tomorrow morning. I don't know them well, but I know them enough to have developed a sense that Davey is a reliable, straight-up kind of guy (unlike someone else I might mention). When he tells me that he'll be here tomorrow morning, I'm inclined to believe him.

What a nice feeling that is, and what a refreshing change in the context of this project.

I'll end with these scenes of three skilled masons at work…

Botany Photo

Today the Botany Photo of the Day site is featuring this Mexican plant (Mentzelia hispida). I wish it grew around here; it's gorgeous!

Cox & Forkum nail it again, this time in response to the Democrat's maneuvers on Capitol Hill to eliminate a proposed “shield law” that would prevent lawsuits against citizen informants who notified authorities of suspicious behavior they'd observed.

Why would the Democrats want to eliminate this shield law? The only plausible answer that I've seen to that question is this: the Democrats are so beholden to the litigation attorney's (they are major contributors to the Democratic Party) that they are willing to trade off national security and American lives .

Cox & Forkum, as usual, perfectly capture the insanity.

Fortress Update

Debbie came into my office a few minutes ago with spectacularly good news: the masons have arrived, and they have begun laying the block for our safe house (aka “The Fortress”).

I have no idea why my contractor suddenly decided to get my job done, but it really does look like that's what's happening. The masons are subcontractors, and I heard him negotiate the job with them – all the way through to completion.

I'm feeling a little faint; I need to lie down for a few minutes…

Monday, July 30, 2007

Electric Father

My father called me yesterday from my parents' home in New Jersey. I could tell that he was very excited, and I soon found out why – just a short while before he called, he had been outside on their covered porch when lightning struck a big oak tree just 10 feet away!

He reports that chunks of smoking oak and a number of fried squirrels fell out of the sky all around him. His hair (he has a few tufts left) stood straight up, because he had acquired a high-voltage static electrical charge. He had no trouble hearing the sound; his normal hearing aids were unnecessary. I think he was still pumped up with adrenaline when he called..

I've been near lightning strokes several times in my life, but never as close as 10 feet – and that's one experience I'd be happy to never have! He was actually quite lucky that none of the current flowed through him or his clothing, as that could have badly injured or even killed him – ten feet is close enough that it could have jumped over to him if he was the path of low resistance. But he was dry, and standing on a dry wooden porch, while surrounded by wet (from the pouring rain) trees and ground, so the lightning naturally took other, lower resistance, paths to ground.

Tagged Again!

Simon tagged me on his blog, looking for eight random facts about me. The rules:

1) Post these rules before you give your facts.
2) List 8 random facts about yourself.
3) At the end of your post, choose (tag) 8 people and list their names (linking to them)
4) Leave them a comment on their blog letting them know they've been tagged!

Well, I can easily supply eight random facts about me (I'm a very random guy!) – but I don't know any other bloggers (aside from Simon!) well enough to tag them back, so I'll just ignore that part.

Eight random facts about me:
  • I've been to quite a few places in the world. In the 1970s, while in the U.S. Navy, I visited dozens of countries around the Pacific Ocean and Indian Ocean – and a few out-of-the-way places like Iceland and Greenland as the Navy flew me around the world to catch my ship. In the 1990s and later, business travel took me to Europe (especially England, Germany, Estonia and Russia) many times, and to some other places as well.

  • I know next-to-nothing about sports (to the point where I cannot reliably tell baseball, football, socker, and tennis apart – I do recognize golf, though). I care about them even less.

  • I wasn't always a software engineer. My initial professional interest was radio. That morphed into digital electronics when I got interested in microcomputers as a hobby in the 1970s. I didn't really get totally focused on software until the mid 1980s – and I still keep my hand in on electronic design.

  • I don't watch any broadcast television at all, and haven't for quite a few years. I watch only a few movies each year (and only at home; I haven't been to a theater for many years). The most modern modern pop music I've listened to was made in the early '80s (and most of it before the mid-'70s). As a consequence, much to the amusement of my friends, there's a vast swath of modern culture that I am completely ignorant of. Just to give you a sample: I've never watched an episode of Friends, The Simpsons, or 24.

  • I read a lot, both online and books – and my reading is eclectic, to say the least. Right at the moment, I'm reading several books: a Martha Grimes English murder mystery, a Java programming book, a book about the effects of randomness on financial systems, and a book about engineering failures and their causes. When I was young (and extremely introverted, and fearful of basically the whole world), reading was my major form of escape – I thought of the county and high school librarians as close friends. I read hundreds of books in my high school years, and actually won an ad hoc award in high school because they'd never seen anyone read so much. All that practice reading built very strong reading skills and a love of reading that has never waned.

  • I detest beer; always have. I've tried roughly a dozen various beers over the years, usually with a friend telling me “Even if you've hated every other beer you've tried, you'll love this one!” They all suck. This is a bit of a social issue with my German, Estonian, and Russian friends!

  • I used to skydive (in the '70s); I've made over 400 jumps. Every time I see skydivers in the air, I'm tempted to start again. I was jumping just before ram-air parachutes (the rectangular ones that basically every jumper uses today) were common and safe. My parachute was a round, 27' diameter “Russian Para-Commander”, a slightly more maneuverable than usual model. It had lift-over-drag ratio of about 1.1:1, which means for every 10 feet you fell, you could travel 11 feet forward. By contrast, modern parachutes can have lift-over-drag ratios of 5:1 or even higher.

  • I'm obsessed with knowing how things work, whether it is something in nature or something man-made. I suspect this is related to loving engineering. I spend a lot of time (and reading) satisfying my own curiosity on such things, generally with nothing actually useful learned. I'm actually quite uncomfortable using a piece of machinery if I don't know (at least in a general way) how it works.

Sunday, July 29, 2007

Tippy Ships

Here's last week's poll and its results (at right).

Two people got it right – the correct answer is the longitudinal center of gravity.

Many moons ago, this little fact was vividly demonstrated to me, in a memorable way. I was serving on a U.S. Navy ship, the U.S.S. Long Beach. This was a nuclear-powered guided missile cruiser, a one-of-a-kind experimental platform for surface nuclear propulsion, electronic systems, and missiles. It was also, oddly enough, the tallest ship in the Navy – about 210' above the waterline if memory serves me right.

On the day of my center-of-gravity demonstration, we were cruising off the southern California coast. A storm moved in, quickly and a bit unexpectedly – and we were subjected to the fiercest winds and largest waves I'd yet experienced. In various maneuvers the ship was subjected to winds and waves that tipped it far over – 48°, according to the “barfometer” (clinometer) in my working space. The really remarkable thing was how long it took to straighten back up – and then swing the other way – it seemed to take forever, but I timed a couple of the recoveries at over 50 seconds (the time between maximum tipping and being back straight up).

Both the large angle of tipping and the slow recovery were caused by the ship having an unusually high longitudinal center of gravity (LCG): just a foot or two below the waterline. The further below waterline a ship's LCG is, the more stable it is.

But what is an LCG? The easiest way for me to visualize it is this: Imagine a ship with a shaft all the way through it, lengthwise. Then imagine this shaft is located so that the ship could be rotated around it while balanced. That shaft would be directly through the LCG.

Now imagine that same ship (with the magic LCD shaft) in the water. If that shaft were exactly at the water line, then it wouldn't matter to the ship whether it was right-side up or up-side down – it would neither right itself or flip up-side down. If the shaft were above the water line, the ship would immediately flip over, up-side down. And if the shaft were below the water line (as it would be on any real ship), the ship is stable in an upright position.

Naval architects (that's what the engineers who design ships are called) pay very close attention to the LCG; it is one of several critical design parameters for any ship. I was told that the U.S.S. Long Beach was initially designed with an LCG considerably lower than it was when I was on board. The LCG was raised when additional superstructure was installed in the 1960s, along with large amounts of additional electronic equipment – some of it located far above the waterline – in the last 1960s and early 1970s (I served on board in the mid-1970s). Whether that raised LCG was accidental or intentional, I couldn't say.

But it sure was uncomfortable!

Saturday, July 28, 2007

Fortress Progress!

If you're a regular reader of my blog, then you've suffered through quite a few unhappy posts over my frustrations with getting a fire-proof “safe house” built. I started this product last October – 9 months ago – and it still is not completed. But today, for the first time in 8 months I can report some progress. Substantial progress – what you see at right is a slab, poured (14 yards of concrete) and finished! I just came back into our house from wetting down the slab, something I must do for the next few days as it cures.

The fellow at right is my contractor, Ruben Ponce. He hails from Chula Vista, which is roughly 30 miles from here; he does concrete jobs all over southern San Diego County. Don't even think about using him until you've read my previous posts – and feel free to contact me directly (through comments or by email). My experiences have been a very mixed bag – high quality work with an almost unbelievable inability to get the job done.

I've never had the chance to observe a concrete job from close up before; the process was more interesting than I expected it to be. The “pumper” showed up first, towing a diesel-powered concrete pump behind his pickup. This concrete pump would move the concrete from the nearest point to the project that the concrete truck could reach (about 100' away) to the project itself. Carlos the pumper told me that he owns several of these pumps, plus a “boom truck” – one of those impossible-looking articulated machines that looks a bit like a cherry-picker with a few extra segments. His pump is a piston pump, with two pistons working alternately to keep pressure in the hose relatively steady. One feature of the pump Carlos tried to explain to me, but failed – I had to Google it to figure it out. His pump has a tank of high-pressure nitrogen attached to it, and I had trouble imagining what that could be used for in pumping concrete! It turns out that the nitrogen is used to pressurize a surge chamber that helps keep pressure (and concrete moving down the line) during the brief time while the pump is switching over from one piston to the other.

Shortly after Carlos arrived, the first concrete truck arrived. This first truck was carrying 9 yards of concrete, and so was very heavy. He had to turn around in my yard so that he could back up my driveway and a small hill to where Carlos' rig was set up. The driver and Carlos worked together in a very practiced manner to get the truck's chute lined up with the big funnel that leads into the pump; it was obvious that both of them had done this little dance many times before…

Once the truck and pump were physically lined up, Carlos added some water to the mix (I'm not sure why), and then the driver positioned himself to control the rate at which concrete was fed into the pump. His job seems quite simple – just control the speed at which the giant drum spins so that the funnel on the concrete pump is mostly full. Something I didn't know before: the drum on the concrete trucks spins one way when they're running down the road (keeping the concrete well mixed) and the other way when they're unloading. There are baffles inside the drum that form a sort of Archimede's screw to pump the concrete out through the action of the drum's turning. It's an ingenious solution that eliminates any need to tilt the drum.

Carlos the pumper doubles as the “placer” – the guy who has the job of placing the concrete in the right place and in the right quantity. He started in one corner of the footing trench and worked his way around the entire foundation, filling the trench but leaving the slab itself empty. Ruben's son told me that this was done in order to allow the footing to begin curing before the slab was poured on top of it. It took Carlos something like 45 minutes to fill the entire footing trench.

At that point he started placing the concrete for the slab itself. He has an amazingly good eye – no doubt developed through much practice – for judging the amount of concrete needed to precisely fill the form. The other two workers (the fellow on the left is Ruben's son) attacked the concrete Carlos placed with pieces of scrap lumber, very quickly getting it flat enough to tell if any area needed more concrete, or needed to have some removed. There wasn't a single instance I observed where Carlos' estimate was off by more than a few cubic inches per square yard of surface…

The concrete placement started along one side of the slab, and proceeded toward the opposite side. The other guys worked immediately on the areas Carlos was filling, just moments behind him. They used nothing more than a piece of scrap lumber, worked very cleverly, to get a rough level just inches behind where Carlos had just placed concrete. Just after I took the photo at right, the first concrete truck ran out. Within a few minutes, the second truck was backed up to Carlos' pump, and the work recommenced as though nothing had happened.

After all the concrete was placed, the whole crew of four workers got very busy. After the whole slab was rough-leveled, they started on the detail – making sure the sidewalks sloped gently outwards (so rainwater will run off and not collect) and the inside floor was level. Then they went to work with in an interesting collection of odd (to my eye, anyway) tools to get the surface nearly perfectly flat and very smooth. The photos below are in sequence from left to right, showing the guys working on this phase of the project. The very last step was to use a broom to create a light texture on the part of the slab that will be a sidewalk outside the building.

Friday, July 27, 2007

Public Policy Discussions

Larry E. (one of my 3.5 faithful readers) made this comment in an email conversation:
You know, I don’t think we ever actually have a debate. I can’t remember ever seeing one. Just a series of vague questions with pat talking points. Often the same talking points repeated from “debate” to “debate”. I’d much rather see a discussion. And exchange of ideas. Maybe a political correspondent and a candidate for a couple of hours actually discussing a topic rather than jumping around and never exploring where they really stand.

For example, Hillary Clinton talks in a general way about universal healthcare. Ok. On the face of it, everyone being healthy sounds like a good idea. And certainly costs are out of control. But I’d like to ask in detail, how do we pay for it? Who would it cover? Every American or would it be another thing that other people get for free but I have to pay for myself and now them? What is to stop my employer for reducing benefits or dropping coverage if the government is doing it? How would we reduce the cost to the taxpayer? How would providing health insurance for poor Americans be cheaper than just treating them at emergency rooms since we know that the cost of health insurance exceeds the cost of health care when amortized over large groups. That’s how insurance companies make their money. Without a lengthy discussion by someone that is interested, we won’t find out where this is going until it becomes another failed, expensive, social experiment. And this can lead into discovering that if she wants everyone to have “free” healthcare, what other benefits does she want to give? Free college? If so, does the government only pay for a community college or do we get free Harvard or something?

I doubt it will happen, but I’d really rather see a discussion rather than a debate. I think we may learn something and you never know, there may be some kernel of good ideas there…. Somewhere.

A substantive public policy discussion in the public political arena? I'd love to see that, too, but I don't think it's ever going to happen. Not for diabolical reasons, but because the American electorate is just not interested in any depth on policy – their eyes start to glaze over after about 8 syllables… Too harsh? I think not – because if the majority of Americans were actually interested in a substantive public policy discussion, the politicians and the lamestream media would be falling all over themselves to provide it, for the power and money that would accrue. Capitalism is a wondrous clarifier when it comes to understanding what people actually want.

So I think our substantive public policy discussions will always happen in the backwaters, not on television shows or in high-volume newspapers. The closest thing I've seen to such a discussion in the “mainstream media” has appeared in Reason magazine – and most people, I suspect, wouldn't lump it in with the mainstream media. Least of all the publishers!

But the political blogs are doing a bang-up job of making these discussions publicly available – and even truly public, on those blogs that allow comments. If you want to engage in a substantive discussion on public policy, I know of no better place to pursue it.

If you take a stab at it, you'll quickly notice an interesting and somewhat puzzling pattern: the righty blogs and libertarian blogs are chock-a-block full of such discussions, while they are hard to find on the lefty blogs (empty rhetoric and foaming-at-the-mouth attacks are much more popular there). Certainly the lefties have no monopoly on lunatics and nutballs – but for whatever reason, that fringe is much more visible on the lefty sites. I suspect there's an important message in that fact, but I really don't know what it is…



Steve vs. Mann

Orson Scott Card, writing at The Ornery American, has an excellent essay on the state of the science and politics of anthropogenic global warming. It's perhaps the best summary I've seen yet. He leads with the story of Mann's famous and fraudulent “hockey stick” curve that's been used so widely to illustrate the case for anthropogenic global warming, with this lead:

Here's a story you haven't heard, and you should have.

An intelligence source, working for a government agency. He's not a spy, he's an analyst. He uses computers to crunch numbers and at the end of his work, out pops the truth that was hiding in the original data. Let's call him "Mann."

The trouble with Mann is, he has an ideology. He knows what he wants his results to be. And the original numbers aren't giving him that data. So the agency he works for won't be able to persuade people to fight the war he wants to fight.

Well, that's not acceptable.

Then he very nicely tells the story of how a Canadian businessman (Steve) did what no “scientist” deigned to do: checked and tested Mann's data and methodology, and in the process thoroughly debunked the hockey stick curve. This story was largely ignored by the lamestream media, so intent were they on the ideologically correct anthropogenic global warming narrative. It's a shame, for they missed a darned good story.

Card continues by discussing the proposed “solutions” for global warming – none of which will actually work (and all the scientists agree on that!). He also asks some interesting questions, such as: what makes us think that global warming is actually bad, no matter what the cause?

It's a very interesting read, and you shouldn't miss the whole thing.

Wednesday, July 25, 2007

Hummingbird Ponder

Imagine for a moment that you're a hummingbird living near our home. Every day, you feed at the feeders that somehow never run out of nectar. How do you perceive those feeders and the humans that replenish them?

I got to pondering this question as I refilled our feeders this morning (five quarts of hummer juice!). I know the hummingbirds recognize me, as their behavior is much different (unafraid) with me than with other people. I can also see that they know to check out the refilled feeders when I bring them out, after leaving the empty feeders alone. So there is some consciousness there of the situation. But I wonder exactly what it is?

For instance, do the hummers see the feeders as some sort of “magic flower” that somehow never runs out of nectar? Or do they realize that the feeders are contrivances for their benefit? And how do they perceive me? As some sort of “nectar god”? If mother hummers can talk to their babies, what do they tell them about the feeders and me?

Inquiring minds want to know!

Tuesday, July 24, 2007

Climate Data Problem?

As if the problems with models and mis-placed incentives weren't enough, now there's good reason to be skeptical of the historical climate data that underlies the actual observations of global warming! Some skeptical climate scientists are calling into question the way in which the temperature data is being collected.

Here's the problem in a nutshell: it appears that some number of the weather stations used to collect temperature data are located improperly, in spots where the temperature is artificially high because of asphalt, reflections from buildings, or even hot equipment. The photo above shows the Wickenburg, Arizona measurement site. The temperature measuring instrument is in the white finned coffee-can shaped container sitting atop a pole – on an asphalt parking lot, next to buildings, and right next to hot equipment!

Certainly not all stations are located badly like this. Of particular interest of the stations that started out in perfectly ok locations, but which had cities and big towns grow around them, and perhaps had site “improvements” made which would introduce temperature bias. One skeptical climate scientist decided to enlist citizen help to reach the goal of surveying all of the 1,200+ stations – check out his web site here if you'd like to help. The results so far (160 sites surveyed) show a definite and substantial problem: many sites are located such that you'd expect to see temperature increases from local effects. These are the measurements being used to predict global warming, but what they're really doing is telling us that the asphalt is hot. Doh!

One of my favorite bloggers surveyed two sites, including the one in the photo above. Check out his report.

It's still true: the more I learn about global warming, especially anthropogenic global warming, the more skeptical I become...

Friday, July 20, 2007

A Ponder...

Driving in my truck yesterday, I happened to notice the odometer was getting close to 150,000 miles. My 1996 Toyota T100 has given me nearly flawless service since I bought it more than 10 years ago. Just recently I had the first expensive maintenance in its entire lifetime, and I expect that to be the last for at least another 50,000 or so miles.

But I got to pondering another significance of that 150,000 miles. All but a very few miles of that were driven by me – so that 150,000 miles represents a whole bunch of my personal time. If you figure I averaged 50 MPH over they entire life of the truck (that's optimistic), that means I have spent something like 3,000 hours driving my truck. And that doesn't even count the time I spent driving our other vehicle!

Three thousand hours on the road. I know where most of this came from: until five years ago, I had a job that required me to commute to the office every day. Until two years ago, I traveled to the office once a week. The past two years I've worked from my home, with no commute at all.

Back in the bad old days when I was a manager, we used to figure that a normal employee worked 2,000 hours per year (50 weeks at 40 hours per week). So that 3,000 hours is equivalent to a year and a half of employment. If you figure in the fact that the vast majority of my commute time in this truck happened over just six years of employment (when I was commuting every day), a year and a half of wasted time starts to be significant.

The bottom line is that both I and my employer are gaining from the absence of my commute. I'm a salaried employee and don't formally keep track of my hours – but I guarantee you they exceed 40 hours per week (ask my wife!). I gain personally as well – no more frustrating rush hour commutes, and some more free time to spend with my family, on my hobbies, or on my honey-do list (I'll let you guess where the priorities are <smile>).

I love it that my Toyota shrugs off the 150,000 miles … but I hate it that I had to waste all that time driving to find that out!

Firearms Refresher Course

From Jim M., who starts out with this quote from Thomas Jefferson:
"Those who hammer their guns into plows will plow for those who do not."

And then starts the actual course:

FIREARMS REFRESHER COURSE
  1. An armed man is a citizen. An unarmed man is a subject.

  2. A gun in the hand is better than a cop on the phone.

  3. Colt: The original point and click interface.

  4. Gun control is not about guns; it's about control.

  5. If guns are outlawed, can we use swords? (Ed.: See what's happening in England, where there's a serious move afoot to outlaw knives!)

  6. If guns cause crime, then pencils cause misspelled words.

  7. "Free" men do not ask permission to bear arms.

  8. If you don't know your rights you don't have any.

  9. Those who trade liberty for security have neither.

  10. The United States Constitution (c) 1791. All Rights reserved.

  11. What part of "shall not be infringed" do you not understand?

  12. The Second Amendment is in place in case the politicians ignore the others.

  13. 64,999,987 firearms owners killed no one yesterday.

  14. Guns only have two enemies; rust and politicians.

  15. Know guns, know peace, know safety. No guns, no peace, no safety.

  16. You don't shoot to kill; you shoot to stay alive.

  17. 911 - government sponsored Dial-a-Prayer.

  18. Assault is a behavior, not a device.

  19. Criminals love gun control -- it makes their jobs safer.

  20. If guns cause crime, then matches cause arson.

  21. Only a government that is afraid of its citizens tries to control them.

  22. You only have the rights you are willing to fight for.

  23. Enforce the "gun control laws" we ALREADY have, don't make more.

  24. When you remove the people's right to bear arms, you create slaves.

  25. The American Revolution would never have happened with gun control.

  26. "A government of the people, by the people, for the people..."
My guns are handy, ready to punch large holes in varmints (we have lots of those!) and bad guys…

New Poll

There's a new poll up, at the right. This one tests your understanding of the mechanics of a ship… Get it right and you might have a career in naval architecture!

Why is the Sky Blue?

I have smart readers! 60% of you who responded to the poll got the right answer: scattering. And nobody took the dunce's answer (pigment).

The simplified explanation: if the atmosphere above us was perfectly transparent (so that the sun's light shined straight through it), the sky would be pitch black. But a phenomenon called “Rayleigh scattering” causes a little of the sun's light to be scattered in random directions, which is why the sky isn't pitch black. Rayleigh scattering is sensitive to the light's wavelengths – shorter wavelengths (the blue end of the spectrum) are scattered more than longer wavelengths.

And that, my friends, is why the sky is blue and not black. Much more, including the interesting effects of Mies scattering, here, here, here, and here.