Maj. Nidal Malik Hasan...

This is one of those moments when I sincerely hope there is an afterlife of some kind.  And that Hasan is suffering for this act, endlessly.

Everything else about this event seems to still be uncertain.  First Hasan was dead, then he was alive.  First he was a convert to Islam, then he was raised as a Muslim.  First there were three shooters, now there is one.  First all the gunshots were fired by the terrorists, then comes reports that some of the casualties may have been from friendly fire.  I have no idea what the truth is.  Hopefully the truth will emerge, and political correctness will not obscure it.

Meanwhile, President Obama (acting like a President, for once) said it well:

It's difficult enough when we lose these brave Americans in battles overseas. It's horrifying that they should come under fire at an Army base on American soil.

Indeed.  Those brave Americans are much in my thoughts this morning...

Rain!

Ok, time for all you non-Jamulians to start laughing.

We've had our first measurable rain of the season, breaking our usual months-long dry spell.  Last night we had 0.08" (about 2mm) of rain.  That's about equal to a flock of pigeons flying over and spitting when they see my weather station. 

But it's enough to wet the ground, and (most importantly) raise the moisture content of the enormous amount of formerly tinder-dry fuel in the dead brush, twigs, and branches of the chaparral.  For us out here amongst the spotted towhees and California quail, that's a big deal – for it drops our risk of wildfire significantly.  I can't quite call it the end of the fire season yet, because it's possible for a few weeks of dry weather to get that fuel moisture back down.  But there's a good chance that we've dodged any major fires this year...

Now that the rainy season is officially declared “open” (by me, the self-proclaimed weatherman of Lawson Valley), I've added the rainfall widges to the sidebar at right...

Mr. Sensitive Strikes Again...

Good thing he likes golf a lot...

Quote of the Day...

From Scott Adams, in today's Dilbert strip, said by Catbert (the evil HR Director).

“Wrong” is one of those concepts that depends on witnesses.

Sounds like a Congresscritter, doesn't it?

A Doctor's Take on the AMA's Endorsement of PelosiCare...

Dr. Joy Bliss, posting at Maggie's Farm:

The AMA backs the PelosiCare monstrosity? Fine.

1. The membership was never consulted.
2. I quit. And I will not be alone.

You tell 'em, doc!

Time to get angry, folks...

Let Your Voice Be Heard...

One of the best messages I've read or heard on Obamacare.

Listen.

Write your Congresscritters.

Don't be afraid to show your frustration and anger.

Don't neglect to let them know that your vote, when they come up for re-election, depends on how they vote on this bill.

Jamul Casino Update...

All good news, if you oppose the Jamul Casino.  From the latest Lakes Entertainment quarterly report:

The net unrealized gains in the third quarter of 2009 consisted of $0.7 million related to the project with the Jamul Indian Village ("Jamul Tribe") near San Diego, California and $0.2 million related to the project with the Iowa Tribe of Oklahoma near Oklahoma City, Oklahoma due primarily to improvements in the credit markets. Lakes also recognized impairment losses of $0.6 million during the third quarter of 2009 due primarily to continued uncertainty surrounding the completion of the Jamul project. Unrealized gains in the prior year period related primarily to the notes receivable related to the Red Hawk Casino project due to the recognition of a gain associated with the continued progress toward a fourth quarter 2008 opening of the Red Hawk Casino, partially offset by unrealized losses associated with a decrease in probability of opening the casino project for the Jamul Tribe. 

...

The net unrealized gains in 2009 consisted of $2.8 million related to the project with the Jamul Indian Village and $0.4 million related to the project with the Iowa Tribe of Oklahoma due primarily to improvements in the credit markets. Lakes also recognized an impairment on long-term assets in the amount of $2.9 million during the nine months ended September 27, 2009 due primarily to continued uncertainty surrounding the completion of the Jamul project. Unrealized gains in the prior year period related primarily to the notes receivable related to the Red Hawk Casino project with the Shingle Springs Band of Miwok Indians near Sacramento, California due to the recognition of a gain associated with the continued progress toward a fourth quarter 2008 opening of the Red Hawk Casino, partially offset by unrealized losses associated with a decrease in probability of opening the casino project for the Jamul Tribe.

Lakes Entertainment is the financial backer of the Jamul Casino project.

Translated into plain English, the above essentially says that Lakes Entertainment is continuing to lose a significant amount of money on its investment in the Jamul Casino project.  At some point, they'll say “enough is enough” and pull the plug on the whole thing...

The Biggest Loser?

Michael Barone in the Wall Street Journal, making an interesting observation about yesterday's elections:

But you missed seeing the guy who may have been the biggest loser of all—a man who according to recently released White House logs has been a guest in the White House 22 times since Barack Obama became president, more than any other single individual.

That man is Andy Stern, who has boasted that the Service Employees International Union, which he heads, ponied up something like $60 million for Barack Obama and other Democrats in the 2008 campaign cycle. Altogether, Mr. Stern and other labor union leaders reportedly gave Democrats some $400 million last year.

This was, to borrow a word from Mr. Obama, an audacious gamble. Unions these days represent only 8% of private-sector employees (and that's counting General Motors and Chrysler as private sector) and some unions went into debt to make these contributions. Public employee unions of course are financed by taxpayers, who pay the salaries from which dues are extracted, but even so their resources are ultimately limited.

What have the unions gotten in return? Some not insignificant things. The Obama administration bludgeoned General Motors and Chrysler bondholders, in what I called an episode of "gangster government," and effectively turned over the two auto companies to the United Auto Workers. The building trades got project labor agreements—i.e., plenty of dues money flowing to their coffers—in the $787 billion stimulus package.

A lot of that stimulus money went as well to state and local governments. The goal was to spare public employee union members from the vicissitudes of the recession to which the rest of us are subject—and to keep that dues money flowing in.

But the union leaders have been frustrated on their No. 1 goal, the card check bill that would effectively abolish the secret ballot in unionization elections. A couple of bulky guys in varsity jackets visit your home and, um, persuade you to sign a card, and later the union—with the help of a mandatory arbitration clause—impose contracts on employees and rake in the dues money.

With all the healthcare bill noise I'd completely forgotten about the damned “card check” (aka “union takeover plan”) bill...

Rationing Begins in the Healthcare Bill...

Does this sound like the hopey-changey stuff we were promised?

You're afraid your cancer is back, and a health insurance company just turned you down.
Under the health care bills in Congress, you could apply for coverage through a new high-risk pool that President Barack Obama promises would immediately start serving patients with pre-existing medical problems.

Wait a second. Read the fine print. You may have to be uninsured for six months to qualify.

"If you are a cancer patient and have cancer now, you can't wait six months to go into a plan because your condition can go from bad to death," said Stephen Finan, a policy expert with the American Cancer Society Cancer Action Network. He called the waiting period in the Senate bill "unacceptable."

Advocates for people with serious health problems, as well as some insurance experts, are raising questions about one of the most important upfront benefits in the Democratic health care legislation: a high-risk pool for the medically uninsurable.

Socialist healthcare necessarily means rationed healthcare.  This is such a simple and unassailable fact, but so many people don't understand it, or don't want to believe it.

The reality is this: if all the people of this country were entitled (by law) to all healthcare services, there would be more demand for healthcare than there was supply.  Nobody is proposing changing that by radically increasing supply (depending on whose estimate you believe, increasing supply to meet unconstrained demand would require somewhere between a 175% and a 450% increase in healthcare capacity, most of which would be unused most of the time).  Human society has only ever come up with two fundamental ways to “manage” such a supply/demand mismatch.

One way is by government dictat, as socialized medicine would be.  In that sort of a system, political bureaucrats use the criteria important to them (e.g., getting re-elected) to decide how much supply there should be, and then those same bureaucrats decide how to ration the limited supply to meet the much larger demand.  That's Sarah Palin's death panels, the Senate bill's waiting period, etc., etc.

The other way is by market forces.  The amount of supply is determined by our collective willingness to pay.  What healthcare you have access to is determined by what you or your employer is willing to pay, which in turn depends on what kind of a job you have and how much society values your work.  Thus as a software engineer, I probably have access to better healthcare than the guy sweeping out the offices at our local retail nursery.  There may also be a “safety net” healthcare plan, as we have today in the U.S., that provides basic healthcare for everybody.

Both of these ways provide a way to allocate scarce healthcare resources to a much larger demand.  I know which one I prefer.  How about you?

“Oh”!

From the one and only Michael Barone:

I cannot imagine that Congressmen Nye, Perriello, Connally and Boucher have not already accessed the websites which have shown the position of their constituents in a contest which, while like all governorship contests has its own specific features, was also in its contrast on issue positions reasonably congruent with those prevailing on national issues. And I can certainly respond with sympathy if any or all of these incumbents responded to these numbers with a two-word comment of which I will relay only the first word which is, “Oh.”

Read the whole thing.

I haven't felt this good about the political state-of-play for a couple years...

Every Day...

Via my lovely wife.  Click to enlarge, and read the fine print...

Surprise, Surprise, Surprise!!!

The Republicans took the New Jersey governor's race.  That's kind of like a Southern Baptist minister running for pope, and winning.  The fix was in on this race, and the Republican (Christie) won anyway.

I'm going to guess that the usual New Jersey Democratic shenanigans were worth 5 to 10 points in the election.  Christie won over Corzine by 49% to 45% according to the official results – so I'd guess that if that election could somehow have been held fairly, the results would have been something between 52/43 and 54/40.  Those are big margins considering the context.  Corzine was an incumbent Democrat, well-supported by the DNC (not to mention personally by Obama and Biden), very wealthy and free with his own money in the campaign.  As of late October, the Corzine campaign had spent a whopping $28m.  On top of all that, Corzine had the full-throated support of New Jersey's legendary “machine” – from thugs to dirty tricks, all was available to him.  Christie, on the other hand, was a relative unknown.  He'd been a U.S. Attorney, a Freeholder (a local NJ political position), and a private lawyer.  He got modest backing from the RNC, no big-name personal visits, and as of late October his campaign had spent just over a quarter of what Corzine spent: about $8m.

But Christie won anyway.  Wow.

You can bet on this: every incumbent Democrat is looking at these results and is reconsidering their commitment to the Obama/Reid/Pelosi wing.  I'm not saying that every one of them is going to change their behavior – but I am saying that a lot of them will.  These results – not just in New Jersey, but in all the off-year elections yesterday – are just too clear to ignore.  Only the most ideologically driven politico will bull ahead without thinking this through.

By the way, the news wasn't all rosy from New Jersey.  I went through all the results, and except for the governor's race, it is all business-as-usual.  The Virginia races were quite different: the Republicans took virtually every contested seat there.  Every incumbent New Jerseyian who ran won their race, and no seat changed party affiliation.  So Christie is walking into a lion's den of rapacious machine politicians – most of whom have every reason to feel completely secure.

But still I have a smile on my face.  The voters, bless their pointed little heads, sent a message last night that I believe will have immediate impact.  Watch what happens with the healthcare bill this week.  Pelosi promised a vote on Thursday (tomorrow!).  My bet is that it gets delayed, probably until next year.  Reid is already signaling that the Senate bill will be delayed to January at the earliest.  After last night, Pelosi and Reid are going to have much more trouble getting votes for that beast from their own party, much less the Republicans...

Momentum and Messages...

Today's elections for governor (Virginia and New Jersey) and Congressman (in upstate New York) are going to be more important for the messages they send to policitians outside those districts than they will be to the people in those districts.

New Jersey's politics are so hopelessly screwed up that electing Mr. Incredible would probably have little effect.  Sorry to sound so pessimistic, but I did grow up there...

Virginia's new governor will almost certainly be Republican, and will almost certainly be unable to make any radical changes there.  That's good, but not important in the long run.

The new Congressman from upstate New York will have no impact at all on a House that's overwhelmingly Democratic.

But...if two or three of these races go to the Republicans, that does indeed send a very clear message to the incumbent Democrats facing reelection next year. It says, loud and clear: tying yourself to Obama and his policies is not the way to win an election.  And there is nothing those Congresscritters care more about than their job-for-life.  They will hear and pay close attention to that message.  And their defensive, back-tracking reactions will build a conservative-leaning momentum that would be quite welcome right now, especially in fiscal terms.

So here's hoping that the voters in those districts take the opportunity to smack Obama upside the head.  Unless the polls are completely wacked out, Virginia is already decided for the Republican candidate.  New Jersey and New York are still too close to call, and could go either way.  Knowing New Jersey as I do, it's easy to predict that every shenanigan you've ever heard of, plus 14 you never heard of before, will be used to lie, cheat, and steal the way to a Democratic victory – and in the past, 99% of the time, those methods have worked just fine.  Probably will again.  In update New York, I have some hope that Acorn and it's ilk haven't yet incorporated themselves into the semi-rural society's fabric – so it's possible that something like a fair election might be held there.

Here's hoping for some Republican success at the polls today!

Huh? of the Day...

Our Secretary of State (Hillary Clinton, if you've forgotten) had this to say on her recent trip to Pakistan:

“Maybe that’s the case; maybe they’re not gettable. I don’t know... As far as we know, they are in Pakistan,” Clinton told senior Pakistani newspaper editors in Lahore, AFP reported. “The percentage of taxes on GDP (in Pakistan) is among the lowest in the world... We (the United States) tax everything that moves and doesn’t move, and that’s not what we see in Pakistan,” she said.

What the heck is she saying?  That first sentence is, I believe, referring to Bin Laden and al Qaeda.  The rest of it is slamming the low tax rates in Pakistan.

First, you gotta love the frank admission of the Democratic strategy: tax it, whether it moves or not.  No wonder our wallets are getting lighter.

But then she seems to be implying that the reason Pakistan is suffering from terrorist attacks is the low tax rates there.  Is that really what she means?  If so, she's even wackier than I thought (and that takes some doin', if you know what I mean)!

Question of the Day...

From an editorial yesterday at Investor's Business Daily:

What are we to make of a White House visitors list that includes 22 swiftly scheduled appointments with a union boss at a time when Gen. Stanley McChrystal can't get face time with the commander in chief?

Indeed...

Looking Forward to that Recovery!

Via my mom...

Unexpected Joys...

Got this email from my mom today:

Dad and I had an errand today at Lowe's and on the way home on the back road near our house we saw something completely unexpected.  Just as we were getting ready to turn the car I spotted in front of us a man about 10 feet tall.  I knew immediately it was a teen on stilts and along side of him was walking a young lady.  I started to laugh and instead of turning onto our road, I continued on and came along side - laughing and telling him how great it was to see him and how much we were enjoying the view.  He told us he walks around at the football games (in this location I am assuming he meant the college games) and that today their church was having a trick or treat time for the children and he was going to walk there.  We kept smiling and had a nice chat with them until cars started to come then we let them get on their way.  Very neat this experience.   Just wanted to share a grin.

How cool is that?

eBay Listing of the Month...

This listing ends in two days, so you'll have to look quickly if you want to see the real deal.  Meanwhile, for the future amusement of us all, here's the complete text of the listing:

I have a reputation for not putting enough effort into describing items I sell on ebay, so this time I'm going to be very clear in describing the item.

The pictures above appear to be of some type of small child's motorbike, possibly a minibike, yes, that's what it looks like. However, this is one of those very rare Chinese made miniature motorcycles of which only about 56,785,920 were distributed world wide last year. The total lack of spare parts for these things has now convinced me that each child born in China was tasked with producing one of these; from a roll of aluminium foil and an empty ice cream container. That explains why each one is different. Not just different colours, but every single one is unique in its dimensions and spirit. Some have even been made inside-out.

Some of them have wheels which are almost round, mine doesn't. The frame appears to be made of bamboo, painted silver to make it look stronger. When they gave the Chinese made boats the name Junk, I can now see why. Surely, one of the five year old kids tasked with building these things could weld. Every weld on the frame of this thing looks like a passing sparrow has splattered semi metallic poo on it, badly. Every bolt is a different size and the fact that it doesn't change shape if left in the sunlight has amazed me.

I rode it once, that was enough. It was about as comfortable as pouring a cup full of leaf-cutting ants down my undies. Even though I'm so short that my feet are actually above my head, somehow riding this thing saw me wearing my ankles as earrings and trying to steer at the same time. Making things even worse was that it was like riding a chainsaw with wheels. The motor can rev like a cat with a clothes peg on its tail, making this little bike go faster than standing still - which is already a stretch of its safety envelope.

Before I took it for its one and only ride, I had to fill it up with fuel. I couldn't understand how such a small machine could need such a large fuel tank, but then fifteen minutes after I'd put the fire out, I worked out why. The fuel leak from the carby was that severe that by the time I'd travelled 12 metres with my feet behind my head, the grass behind me was on fire. The leaking fuel had some how caught alight and although I was hoping it was a trail of burning rubber from its tyre shredding power, it was merely a small fire, not unlike a burning pipeline in Iraq. Fortunately, the fuel leak was so bad that by the time the fire caught up to the bike, there was nothing left to burn.

The bodywork on the bike isn't even attached. I don't know how it ever could be. There must have been a fight at the child labour factory when this thing was made, obviously the stronger five year old stole the bits that allowed this bike's bodywork to be attached to its silver bamboo frame. So it just sits there making this thing even more ridiculous. You would expect that motorcycle bodywork would be made of plastic, true. But given the fact that this stuff a) didn't burn and b) is as flexible as a Viagra induced erection, tells me that it is something from another planet, possibly China. I suspect that it may be some super organic, self regenerating rice paper or something.

Starting this bike is about as easy as getting a table of six for Yum Cha at 12pm. Despite the fuel gushing from the poor excuse for a carby, this thing has a pull start which has a cord about as long as a primary school play lunch. With the amount of fuel flooding from the carby, it requires full throttle to start. The first time I got it going it rode off with only the ghost of Chopstick Creek at the controls. I later learned that the best way to start it was by holding it under your arm and acting out an ACDC guitar riff before putting it back down, placing your ankles behind your ears and hoping that the thing stayed upright long enough for someone to get a photo.

On the bright side, this thing would make a fantastic garden ornament, because it has a miraculous ability to convert itself to important soil nutrients, like iron oxide, very quickly. You will notice that one of the front fork stanchions is all rusty. I didn't do that in photoshop, it really is rooted. You will also notice that the steering is out of alignment, but what do you expect from child labour?

When the Trike of Death saw this little bike, it turned around in a very large circle and looked the other way. You have to feel sorry for this little machine, it's like a puppy in a pound. Surely someone out there must have a good home for it? Lets face it, you can now buy something that has trodden the same ground as the legendary Trike of Death for less than the cost of a Trike of Death T shirt. You may even be able to convert this little thing into a candle, a hearing aid, a belt buckle or something else useful.

This monstrosity needs to go. Even if you buy it just for something to kick your toe on it would be worth it. You could paint it black and leave it on some stairs one night. You could create an artificial reef out of it, for one small and selfish fish. Whatever you do with it is your own business, just don't tell anyone where it came from.

In response to some anticipated questions, here are the answers:

No, I don't have a buy it now price, but if you can convince ebay to refund my listing fee, you can have it.

No, it doesn't have a seat, the manufacturer didn't design it to last long enough for your arse to make it to the where the seat would normally be.

No, it ran out of warranty on the third day, which was when it was somewhere in the middle of the Sea of China, on its way to infest the world with a good dose of unquality control.

Yes, I will deliver it to Anaheim California, it will only cost a return airfare ex Sydney and a Disneyland pass.

No, the brakes don't work. It wasn't designed to make it that far.

Yes, it is crap.

True, it does look good. So too do most celebrities until you see them in the flesh.

No, it wouldn't be a nice gift for a six year old, or any other number between 1 and 1000.

No, there isn't any spare parts available for it. They were designed around the same concept as disposable razors and toilet paper, not much good after the first use.

Yes, you are welcome to take it for a test ride – after you buy it and then sell it to someone else who advertises it for sale and offers you a ride of it.

Quote of the Day...

From Scott Adams, in Dilbert.  This is the punchline to today's Dilbert strip.  Adams uses it in an entirely apolitical way, but it occurred to me that it must be how most Obamites are feeling right about now...

Computers Suck at Math...

Well, not really.  But they do make mistakes that surprise most people, including most professional programmers.  The basic problem is the way that computers usually represent numbers internally – with something called “binary floating point numbers”.  This article does a reasonably good job of explaining the problems in laymen's terms.

The most common place that errors in computer math show up is in financial calculations, where it's not unusual to need 15 or more digits of precision, and where calculations are often done repetitively (as in adding a large column of numbers).  Just to give a simple example, if the computer represents $0.01 as $0.0999934821, and you add enough of those pennies together, your result will be off by more than a penny.  Even though a computer did the math.

There are other ways that computer math can go horribly wrong, too.  All of these are well-known and covered by extensive literature, yet programmers keep making the same mistakes over and over again.  The basic error is to choose binary floating point to represent money (or other critical values).  Other representations exist.

So why do programmers keep doing this?  I've asked that question of programmers working for me on numerous occasions.  The most common response, by far, is something along the lines of “These errors only show up because the incorrect rounding was used, and I'm using the correct rounding.”  That's just plain wrong, though most programmers appear to be unaware of this.  But probably the most important reason programmers keep using binary floating point numbers is because it's easy, and often the problems with that choice don't show up until after a software system has been in use for a while.

The fact is that binary floating point numbers cannot represent all real world numbers with sufficient accuracy for all uses.  It's not a rounding problem, it can't be “worked around” – they're simply not up to the job.  There are many alternative ways to represent numbers in a computer that do not have any of the problems of binary floating point.  These methods are a teensy bit harder to use in most programming languages, and not at all harder in some.  There is, in most cases, a small performance penalty – irrelevant in all but the most compute-intensive algorithms.

So be careful with those binary floating point numbers, y'all...