Today's elections for governor (Virginia and New Jersey) and Congressman (in upstate New York) are going to be more important for the messages they send to policitians outside those districts than they will be to the people in those districts.
New Jersey's politics are so hopelessly screwed up that electing Mr. Incredible would probably have little effect. Sorry to sound so pessimistic, but I did grow up there...
Virginia's new governor will almost certainly be Republican, and will almost certainly be unable to make any radical changes there. That's good, but not important in the long run.
The new Congressman from upstate New York will have no impact at all on a House that's overwhelmingly Democratic.
But...if two or three of these races go to the Republicans, that does indeed send a very clear message to the incumbent Democrats facing reelection next year. It says, loud and clear: tying yourself to Obama and his policies is not the way to win an election. And there is nothing those Congresscritters care more about than their job-for-life. They will hear and pay close attention to that message. And their defensive, back-tracking reactions will build a conservative-leaning momentum that would be quite welcome right now, especially in fiscal terms.
So here's hoping that the voters in those districts take the opportunity to smack Obama upside the head. Unless the polls are completely wacked out, Virginia is already decided for the Republican candidate. New Jersey and New York are still too close to call, and could go either way. Knowing New Jersey as I do, it's easy to predict that every shenanigan you've ever heard of, plus 14 you never heard of before, will be used to lie, cheat, and steal the way to a Democratic victory – and in the past, 99% of the time, those methods have worked just fine. Probably will again. In update New York, I have some hope that Acorn and it's ilk haven't yet incorporated themselves into the semi-rural society's fabric – so it's possible that something like a fair election might be held there.
Here's hoping for some Republican success at the polls today!
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