As many of my readers already know, for over ten year ending in 2004 I was a frequent visitor to the little Baltic country of Estonia. Two different companies that I worked for in that period had software development facilities in Tallinn, the largest city in Estonia. In that period I made quite a few friends there, and traveled extensively throughout the country. I’m very fond of Estonia and its people.
Estonia’s history is one of turmoil and conflict, and amazingly complex for such a tiny country. Of relevance to this post is its history from World War II onwards.
The entire country of Estonia was overrun by the Nazis early in the war. Some Estonians — a small, but significant minority — actively collaborated with the Nazi occupiers. The Nazis drafted some men involuntarily into its armed forces, but other Estonians volunteered — including for concentration camp guard duty and extermination squad duty. There was also an active resistance against the Nazis, in which a number of Estonians were killed or injured. During this period there was a very small community of ethnic Russian people in Estonia, variously estimated at 1.5% to 3.5% of the total population.
Later in the war, the Soviet Army overran Estonia from the other direction. Just as with the Nazis, a small but significant minority of Estonians collaborated with the Soviets. There were Estonian units in the Soviet Army, but the most apparent collaboration was political — some ethnic Estonians joined the Communist party and became local implementors of the Soviet domination. Again, just as with the Nazis, there was an active military resistance to the Soviet occupation that wasn’t stamped out until the 1960s. During this period of Soviet occupation, hundreds of thousands of ethnic Russians emigrated to Estonia, which had become part of the Soviet Union. Most of these Russian immigrants were concentrated in approximately half the land area of the country, where they became the overwhelming majority of the population. Other parts of the country were still ethnic Estonian in majority. Depending on whether you count military personnel (the Soviets had several large military facilities in Estonia), and depending on who did the counting, the ethnic Russians at their peak formed between 45% and 65% of the total population of the country.
The Soviet occupation of Estonia lasted for over 40 years, until 1991. During this period, an entire generation of Estonians experienced life as a subjugated, second-class people. Many ethnic Russians in Estonia deny this, but the evidence seems incontrovertible to me — educational opportunity, economic opportunity, and freedom of movement were all different (and worse) for the ethnic Estonians. In 1991, as the Soviet Union was falling apart, ethnic Estonians (and a few ethnic Russians) formed a separatist movement and carried out an almost non-violent “singing revolution” that won Estonia’s independence.
After the Soviet withdrew their military, and after the initial waves of emigration (mainly ethnic Russians returning to Russia) and immigration (mainly ethnic Estonians who had escaped the occupations returning to their native land), the population over the whole country has settled down to roughly 60% ethnic Estonian and 40% ethnic Russian. Different sources for these numbers vary by a surprising amount even today, and of course there are other ethnic groups in Estonia as well.
For the past 16 years, since independence from the Soviet Union, little Estonia has been dealing with the tensions between these two ethnic communities. My ethnic Estonian friends largely perceive the ethnic Russians as the leftovers of a hated oppressor, as interlopers, and mainly interested in returning Estonia to Russia. My ethnic Russian friends have a much more varied set of perceptions and attitudes. Some of them appear to be exactly what the ethnic Estonians fear. Some of them are much more moderate, especially with respect to rejoining Russia. Most of them have learned enough Estonian to become citizens; some of them are quite fluent in Estonian. Only one amongst all my ethnic Russian friends ever stated assimilation into Estonian culture as an objective — all the rest seem, actively or passively, to be committed to keeping their Russian culture. For example, most of the children of my ethnic Russian friends attend Russian-language schools.
This past week, the Estonian government decided to move a monument in Tallinn out of the Old Town area to a military cemetery on the outskirts of the city. This particular monument had been erected by the Soviets in honor of their soldiers who were killed while driving the Nazis from Estonia. Many ethnic Estonians were insulted by this monument to an oppressor’s army — especially because it stood in the heart of Estonian history and culture: the Old Town of Tallinn. It was a highly visible reminder of the Soviet Army that not only drove out the reviled Nazis, but also forcibly evicted thousands of Estonians, herded them off to gulags where many died, and stomped the Estonian resistance out of existence. This Soviet Army was the instrument that enabled their oppression, and they resented this memorial to it. The ethnic Russians, on the other hand, see this memorial as honoring their fallen comrades who had been engaged in a wholly honorable duty: clearing the fair land of Estonia of the execrable Nazis. To them, moving the monument was an insult to heroes — and inexplicable, as the Estonians were themselves the great beneficiaries of their fighting.
So the movement of the monument was guaranteed to whip up tensions, as that action was keenly felt by the emotions of both groups. But to make matters worse, it appears that Russian intelligence was active amongst several ethnic Russian groups inside Estonia, doing everything they could to make the tensions even higher. Their objective: to topple the current government of Estonia, which the Russians perceive (quite correctly, I think) as unfriendly to their interests. The best documented example of their actions I’ve been able to find is the planting of outrageous stories in Russian-language newspapers, both in Estonia and in Russia. For example, one of these stories claimed that the Estonian government had not moved the monument in whole, but had instead hacked it up into dozens of pieces and reassembled it in a sloppy, disrespectful manner. This story is now known to have been written in Russia (presumably by the foreign intelligence agency), then distributed through the leader of a militant Russian group in Estonia (this leader is now under arrest). Russian intelligence stands accused of many other actions to raise tensions as well. Yesterday a delegation of Russian diplomats arrived in Tallinn for discussions — and before they left, they announced that their goal was to bring down the current Estonian government!
Over the past few days, thousands of people in several Estonian cities have rioted. Tallinn’s Old Town area saw the most violence and damage; one man was killed and dozens were injured. About 1,000 people were arrested, though most have been released. Tensions between the ethnic Estonian and ethnic Russian communities are very high; worse, I think, than even immediately following independence from the Soviet Union.
My ethnic Estonian friends are all worried that Russia will use these recent events and increasing tensions as a pretext to invade and re-occupy Estonia. At least one of my friends is worried enough to start sending her family and assets out of the country. I think this is overreaction, and quite premature, but I can’t blame them for their fear and concern. The EU and NATO memberships aren’t likely to translate into direct military defense if it were needed. I believe Finland, the U.S., Britain, and Poland are the most likely military forces who actually would come to Estonia’s aid — and only the Finns could do so very quickly.
My ethnic Russian friends seem much less concerned about a Russian invasion (and, so far as I know, none of them would welcome it). They are more inclined to believe that the Russian government will, at most, try to get a pro-Russian government installed in Tallinn. I think this is most likely myself; it would be quite a gamble for Russia to simply annex Estonia. On the other hand, as an American friend of mine commented yesterday, from Russia’s perspective the West probably looks quite wimpy right now — it’s not inconceivable that the Russians have talked themselves into believing that the West would not come to Estonia’s aid. We Americans are quite tied up now with various aspects of the global war on terror, plus the ongoing tension with Iran. The British don’t look like they’d be real excited about a front in Europe. Poland would almost certainly be willing, but their capabilities are limited. The Finns are hard to read — they’re committed by treaty to defend Estonia, and there are now substantial Finnish assets in Estonia — but on the other hand their politics are not generally supportive of military intervention. So I can make the case myself for Russia feeling as though they might be able to get away with retaking Estonia — but I believe they’d be making a terrible mistake (for Russia) by doing so.
More than anything, I just hate seeing these events happen to little Estonia, the Baltic land that I’ve come to love. All my friends are agitated by this, whatever side of the fence they’re on. And it’s very hard to see any path out of this mess that is good for everyone — I’m afraid that resolution likely means that one side or the other “wins” and the other “loses", and that’s a darned shame…
