This is So Close!

RCP's current poll averages have the U.S. Senate post-election seat count as follows:

 Democrat:   49

 Republican: 45

 Toss-up:     6

At worst, it looks like the Democrats will retain their majority in the Senate, but with a much lower margin.  At best, the Republicans could gain an outright majority.  This is more likely than the poll results indicate, as some of the constituent polls are clearly biased toward the Democrats, probably because of likely voter sampling error.  The California polls may be biased toward the Republicans, because young voters may vote in higher-than-expected numbers to support the marijuana legalization initiative.

There's another interesting possibility that emerges if the Democrats end up with a one or two seat majority (and this is actually looking like quite a likely outcome).  In that environment, Senators who currently caucus with the Democrats have a huge incentive to switch to the Republicans, as they can likely cut an interesting deal to incent them to switch.  For example, one could imagine Lieberman getting chairmanship of a committee relating to foreign affairs or military interests in exchange for switching.

Next Tuesday night will be a cliffhanger.  I'm not planning on getting much sleep!

Not What You Think...

Via my mom:

Marine Logic...

My favorite from a collection of posters my mom sent me.  Several of my regular readers are Marines (some no longer on active duty); I'm sure they'll appreciate this...

When Farm Kids Get Bored...

Hay sculptures.  Some of these are so incredible that I'm wondering if they're PhotoShopped.  Even if they are, they're ingenious!  Via reader Simi L.

The Forgotten Man...

Vote. Please.

Signs of Climate Weirdness...

One of the less attractive features of the chaparral is a little beastie known as a gopher (though it's generally referred to by names I won't repeat here).  This destructive little devil bores holes through the dirt, burrowing underneath your favorite plants and eats them from below.  You can watch them disappear down into the ground as the gopher gobbles them up, safe in his burrow.

Most of the year, the soil out here is as hard as concrete.  The gophers in their burrows are safe from just about anything short of nuclear or chemical weapons.  During these times, the soil is so hard that the gophers can't make new burrows.

But after rains, the soil dampens and softens up.  Right now if I walk in my yard, my feet sink into the ground a half inch to an inch.  The gophers, when they detect this softening, go right to work, digging their burrows at a prodigious rate.   Every few feet they drill a hole to the surface so they have a place to kick out the soil they have excavated.  You can track the progress of an individual gopher by watching these “tailings piles” build up around the excavation holes.

Right now in our yard (which is about three acres), we probably have about twenty gophers excavating like mad.  One of these is boring a hole right across the front of our house, right alongside the concrete slab.  I think it must be a particularly stupid gopher, as there is no food available here at the interface between our slab and our driveway.  Nevertheless, el stupido gopher is drilling away, leaving a trail of tailings piles across the front of our house. 

Debbie has been raking the debris piles flat, so they don't look so bad.  I suspect the gopher is delighted by this assistance, as it makes it easier for him to kick more dirt out of those excavation holes.  I picture him telling all his buddies about the helpful human he has, filling them with jealousy.  They're probably all boring in our direction now.

What I'd really like for Christmas is a Gopher Terminator robot, preferably one equipped with a wide variety of gopher terminating devices.  I'm ok with tactical nukes, and certain kinds of chemical weapons are all right as well.  I'd rather stay away from the biological weapons.  Anybody know a web site I can buy one of these from?

ClimateGate: the Truth, Pursued...

Steve McIntyre continues his quest for the truth...

Now This is Just Plain Geeky Cool!

Via GeekPress:

Your Morning Voter Education...

James O'Keefe – the guy who's been making those videos that look shockingly like actual journalism instead of the press release parroting normally seen in the lamestream media – has done it again.  This time, he took his video cameras under cover into the New Jersey Education Association's (NJEA) Leadership Conference.  The video below is the first volume of the results; it's a graphic illustration of what happens when you get generations of parasites sucking on the public teat.  Click over to YouTube to see the rest.




Remember: the teacher's unions (that's what the NJEA is) are, nationwide, the number one source of funds for Democrat candidates.  Remember that when you vote.

Morning Walk...

It was clear this morning, first time in a while, but still cool and humid.  A roughly two-thirds moon was high overhead, just about on top of the Pleiades.  It provided enough light for us to see color even in the distance; after a couple minutes accommodation I could walk as confidently as in daylight.  Sirius is high in the east, and Orion even higher; the season is changing quickly. 

The three field spaniels went crazy with sniffing.  Definitely some beastie was in the yard, and they were on the job, diligently trying to absorb every molecule of scent it left behind.  I got the sense that they were outraged, that the beastie had done something the dogs were offended by.  Race, of course, just waited for me to kick the pine cone.  There are lots of them now; the year's “crop” is falling off the trees, delighting him with new and ever-more-wonderful pine cones every day.  Sometimes he'll find two or three in the same spot, and he'll try his best to carry them all in his mouth.  Fails every time, but keeps trying...

Morning Read...

From Mark Steyn, who's been off on some kind of mysterious business overseas and has been largely absent (and his wit much missed) from the season's political scene.  One interesting paragraph:

We know American government is living beyond America’s means. What’s more interesting is whether it’s living beyond the world’s. Historically, foreign official holdings of US Treasury securities have been less than five per cent of the rest of the planet’s GDP. By 2009, they were up to seven per cent. Obama-sized budgets depend on foreign holdings rising to about 20 per cent of the rest of the planet’s GDP.

Much more here – go read.

Debbie and Miki, In Competition!

Five runs, five winner's ribbons.  Debbie and Miki rule the agility field!

We the People...

Via my mom:

Trunk Monkey...

Oh, I would so like to have the political edition of the trunk monkey...

Soggy Morning Walk...

Three years ago today, we were in the first day of our evacuation because of wildfires, and we were closely watching the Harris fire that threatened our home.  The threat mainly came from the incredibly low fuel moisture (< 3%) at the time, compounded by a fearsome Santa Ana windstorm.

This morning could hardly be more different.

There was no wind at all.  The dogs and I, on our morning walk, were completely enveloped in thick fog, through which a light drizzle was falling.  The ground is soft and sopping wet.  Another ground moisture indicator: the gophers have started digging their tunnels, which they can only do when the soil is thoroughly wet in the top 10 to 20 inches.  The fuel moisture gauge on Lyons Peak reads 44.7% (meaning that the fuel there would be very hard to ignite).

In two days, our front yard has developed a thick coating of greenery.  Bulbs are erupting everywhere, months earlier than usual.  The frogs were very loud this morning; probably a combination of frog-friendly moisture in the air and better hearing through the wet atmosphere.

Sure enjoyed the walk this morning!

The Problem with Democrats...

First, watch this.




Now it will come as no surprise to my readers that I'm not exactly a fan of Gerry “Moonbeam” Brown.  But just in case you're unclear on the question: I'd sooner vote for a randomly selected retarded goat abuser with Tourette's syndrome before I voted for the Moonbeam.  But my comments here are not so much about Brown as they are about “progressives” (which is, in this country and even more so in this state, pretty much a synonym for Democrats).

First point: note how the Moonbeam's first (and only) reaction to the question was to say (in effect) “throw taxpayer money at it”.  He, like other progressives, seem to know no other solution.

Second point, and the more important one: note the utter obliviousness to the actual problem: a business-hostile environment created by progressives through increased regulation and taxes.  He appears to be, sadly, completely unaware that the major incentive provided by other locales is the absence or lessening of these factors. 

The Moonbeam, like many other progressives, is not a moron.  So how can they possibly miss this point?  I've never been able to decide, myself, whether their ideology so warps their thinking process that despite the facts being squarely and indisputably in front of them, they somehow convince themselves otherwise – or they are simply dishonest and craven to the core, and see that mouthing the progressive line can bring them fame, riches, and power.  I just don't know, but I can't see any other alternative explanations.

But in the end, their motivation doesn't matter.  What matters is that these people must not be in power.  They must lose on November 2.  Please help ensure that happens – this year, your vote actually matters!

Me, I'm going to buy some serious alcohol and have it at the ready on that Tuesday evening.  By the end of the evening, I'll either be celebrating in an alcohol- and joy-induced haze, or I'll be trying to drink myself into a stupor while providing a pleasant environment for my brain cells to die in...

Despair...

Go read.

Then ponder that all this happened in a single week.

Sheesh, folks, what's happening to us?

Hope...

Oh, just go read this...

There now, don't you feel better?

Oh, Crap...

Via my mom:

Positive Feedback...

JoNova has a good, non-technical explanation of what positive feedbacks are, how the anthropogenic global warming (AGW) models depend on them, and why there's good cause to be skeptical of them.  Toward the end there's also a particularly good example of the kinds of presentation tricks the IPCC and its members use to mislead us all...