A revolutionary change

Herbert E. Meyer served during the Reagan Administration as Special Assistant to the Director of Central Intelligence and Vice Chairman of the CIA’s National Intelligence Council. In this excellent article he makes the case for why revolutions in all the remaining dictatorships are inevitable. Information technology is the revolutionary enabler, he argues. Read the whole thing; it's a very interesting piece. Here's his conclusion (the emphasis is his):

Now think about the generals in today’s remaining dictatorships. They cannot be having much fun, or feeling very confident about the future. George W. Bush is secure in his second term, and he’s made freedom around the world his personal mission. Georgia and Ukraine have had their revolutions, and Afghanistan and Iraq are moving steadily toward democracy. Crowds are surging in Lebanon, Syria looks to be in Washington’s cross-hairs, and demonstrations have been taking place every day, for months, in Iran. Even little Kyrgyzstan is starting to come apart, and over in The Hague a score of Serbian generals are on trial for their lives. Throughout the world, the very idea of revolution is in the air. This is the 21st century, and ordinary people everywhere understand that the combination of democracy and free enterprise is the only thing that works. They see it, and they want it.

It would be foolish to suggest that everything has changed, and that the generals and the demonstrators will all be sitting in a circle, holding hands and singing It’s a Small, Small World. There is still the very real possibility of horrific violence in Lebanon, Iran, or in any of the countries where trouble is brewing. But it would be even more foolish to believe that nothing has changed, and that the dictatorships that were built in the 20th century will survive for long in the 21st.

It is late at night in Damascus, or Teheran, or Cairo, or maybe even Moscow, and the general is sitting in his easy chair with his tie loosened, his shoes off and perhaps with a drink in his hand. He is exhausted, but he cannot sleep. All day he has been reading reports of growing unrest, of strikes, of demonstrations against the regime he is sworn to defend. It is getting out of hand, and sooner rather than later he will be given the order to shoot. Scenes of the resulting carnage will be played and re-played on televisions around the world – including the one in his wife’s bedroom. And even if the revolution is stopped, surely it will start again before long and even more blood will flow through the streets. The general finishes his drink, turns out the lamp beside his chair, walks slowly toward his bedroom – and realizes that his two teen-agers aren’t home…

Quote for the day

No act of kindness, no matter how small, is ever wasted.

   Aesop

Iran's cruise missiles

Oh, great. Like we needed this, on top of Iran's well-understood nuclear ambitions. You just gotta wonder what these people were thinking when they made this deal!

On the bright side, without the revolution in the Ukraine, I seriously doubt we'd have gotten this admission (though one could hope our intelligence services would have ferreted it out).

The AFP's complete story:

LONDON (AFP) - Ukraine admitted that it had exported nuclear-capable cruise missiles to Iran (news - web sites) and China, amid tense diplomatic debate over Tehran's alleged quest for nuclear weaponry.

Eighteen Soviet-era X-55 cruise missiles were exported in 2001 -- 12 to Iran and six to China -- Svyatoslav Piskun, Ukraine's prosecutor general, told the respected London-based Financial Times daily.

Piskun said the missiles were not exported with the nuclear warheads that they were designed to carry.

Nonetheless, both Japan and the United States were worried about what appeared to be a significant leak of military technology, the newspaper reported.

The X-55, an air-launched missile also known as the Kh-55 and AS-15 and first introduced in 1976, has a range of 3,500 kilometers (2,175 miles), which would give China -- or North Korea (news - web sites), if it obtained the missile -- easy access to Japan, while Iran could hit its main regional foe, Israel.

Last month the Ukrainian government opened a criminal inquiry, at the request of Japan, into the illegal sale of 18 missiles by the Ukrspetsexport arms group to unspecified states via Russia.

Reports about the missile sales going to Iran emerged earlier this month.

But Piskun's statement was the first acknowledgment from the Kiev government, and is likely to heighten suspicions about Tehran's nuclear program.

The Islamic republic insists its program is aimed at peaceful civilian use but Washington claims it is designed to produce nuclear arms.

Although the X-55 is designed to carry a nuclear warhead, it can also be loaded with conventional weaponry and would not be Iran's ideal nuclear missile, Doug Richardson, editor of Jane's Missiles and Rockets Magazine, said.

Richardson told AFP the Tehran regime's own Shahab ballistic missile was better suited since it was faster than a cruise missile.

"If they're going to nuclearize a weapon, they're much more likely to do so with one of their ballistic missiles. A ballistic missile, simply because of its sheer speed, is more difficult to defend against than a cruise missile," he said, calling the Shahab "almost unstoppable".

A cruise missile, on the other hand, travels at subsonic speed comparable to that of an airplane, he added.

However, John Eldridge, editor of Jane's Nuclear, Biological and Chemical Defence, told AFP the report was a fresh sign that Iran was seeking "to beef up its offensive capability in the region".

"It's not a piece of news that hints of great stability in the region," he said.

If Iran is seeking to create an offensive nuclear capability, it could either buy complete "off-the-shelf" solutions or acquire both materials such as the X-55 and expertise to create it themselves, Eldridge said.

Currently, "both options appear to be being pursued by the Tehran government", he added.

Ukraine had a massive weapons arsenal after the fall of the Soviet Union, but it returned its nuclear warheads to Russia or destroyed them under a US-funded disarmament program.

Its remaining weaponry remains, however, a source of major concern in the West, fueled by several high-profile cases of arms trafficking including radar technology to Saddam Hussein (news - web sites)'s regime in Iraq (news - web sites).

two anti-aircraft missiles and a launch system were reported stolen last month from a Ukrainian naval base in the Crimean peninsula, while Turkey reported seizing a Ukrainian radio-controlled missile and missile heads en route to Egypt last June.

Enceladus

A new photo-montage from Cassini...

Wolfowitz derangement syndrome

Bush's recent appointment of Paul Wolfowitz to head the World Bank has much of Europe in a tizzy. From what I've read, much of the tizzy stems from Bush's failure to "consult with" (translate: buckle under to) the European shareholders of the bank. Those shareholders are very much in the minority, by the way...not that that matters to the liberal Europhiles over here who are having a sympathy tizzy with the Europeans. Roger Simon nicely tears holes in the tizzy's foundations, and raises some questions of his own. An excerpt:

You would think a Jewish and an Arab intellectual (both quite adult) being romantically involved would be applauded by "progressive" Europe, but I guess not. So what is the reason for their WDS -- Wolfowitz Derangement Syndrome -- other than the usual envy expressed by the ever-bilious British pol Clare Short who is quoted in the same article as saying on their TV: "America is going to do what it likes or hard cheese."

Another article in the Financial Times reports that some Europeans and "development economists" were concerned that Wolfowitz was "ill-suited" for the post, apparently because he wasn't properly educated in their specialty, as if development economics were particle physics or open-heart surgery. It's hard to take that seriously, considering the deputy defense secretary is easily one of the brainiest government officials on either side of the pond.

Ann's rebuttal

Brian Nicols wrestled a gun away from his guard last week and went on a murderous rampage, murdering a judge and three other people. The guard who lost her gun happened to be a 5 foot tall grandmother. Do you think that might have had something to do with Nicols' success? Ann thinks so. Here's an excerpt from her wonderful column, which you really should go read:

How many people have to die before the country stops humoring feminists? Last week, a defendant in a rape case, Brian Nichols, wrested a gun from a female deputy in an Atlanta courthouse and went on a murderous rampage. Liberals have proffered every possible explanation for this breakdown in security except the giant elephant in the room – who undoubtedly has an eating disorder and would appreciate a little support vis-à-vis her negative body image.

The New York Times said the problem was not enough government spending on courthouse security ("Budgets Can Affect Safety Inside Many Courthouses"). Yes, it was tax-cuts-for-the-rich that somehow enabled a 200-pound former linebacker to take a gun from a 5-foot-tall grandmother.

Atlanta court officials dispensed with any spending issues the next time Nichols entered the courtroom when he was escorted by 17 guards and two police helicopters. He looked like P. Diddy showing up for a casual dinner party.

I think I have an idea that would save money and lives: Have large men escort violent criminals. Admittedly, this approach would risk another wave of nausea and vomiting by female professors at Harvard. But there are also advantages to not pretending women are as strong as men, such as fewer dead people. Even a female math professor at Harvard should be able to run the numbers on this one.

Don't miss the rest...

al-Arifi nabbed

Abdullah Nassar al-Arifi has been on the FBI's most-wanted list since 9/11, according to Fox, though I couldn't find him when I went to the FBI's site.

Another one bites the dust!

Quote for the day

Democracy is the art and science of running the circus from the monkey cage.

   H. L. Mencken

Quote for the day

Too bad that all the people who know how to run the country are busy driving taxicabs and cutting hair.

   George Burns

Scalia's speech

Supreme Court Justice Anton Scalia delivered a speech at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars on March 14, 2005. A blog named ThreeBadFingers has transcribed the whole thing by hand. Please if you read just one thing today, make it this one. A teaser:

The very next case we announced is a case called BMW verses Bush. Not the Bush you think; this is another Bush. Mr. Bush had bought a BMW, which is a car supposedly, advertised at least as having a superb finish, baked seven times in ovens deep in the Alps, by dwarfs. And his BMW apparently had gotten scratched on the way over. They did not send it back to the Alps, they took a can of spray-paint and fixed it. And he found out about this and was furious, and he brought a lawsuit. He got his compensatory damages, a couple of hundred dollars, the difference between a car with a better paint job and a worse paint job. Plus, two million dollars against BMW for punitive damages for being a bad actor, which is absurd of course, so it must be unconstitutional. BMW appealed to my court, and my court said, “Yes, it’s unconstitutional.” In violation of, I assume, the Excessive Damages Clause of the Bill of Rights. And if excessive punitive damages are unconstitutional, why aren’t excessive compensatory damages unconstitutional? So you have a federal question when ever you get a judgment in a civil case. Well, that one the conservatives liked, because conservatives don’t like punitive damages, and the liberals gnashed their teeth.

I'm fully in favor of liberals gnashing teeth!

The NYT says there was WMD?!?

Ever since the war in Iraq began, the New York Times has been insisting there was not, and never had been, any WMD to find in Iraq. According to them, the whole WMD story was a big lie calculated to deceive Americans into supporting the effort to topple Hussein. But recently they published an article detailing the looting of a WMD site just after war started. Is this a position change?

In Slate, Christopher Hitchens does a wonderful job of tearing the grey lady a new one. Read the whole thing! Here's a sample:

My first question is this: How can it be that, on every page of every other edition for months now, the New York Times has been stating categorically that Iraq harbored no weapons of mass destruction? And there can hardly be a comedy-club third-rater or MoveOn.org activist in the entire country who hasn't stated with sarcastic certainty that the whole WMD fuss was a way of lying the American people into war. So now what? Maybe we should have taken Saddam's propaganda seriously, when his newspaper proudly described Iraq's physicists as "our nuclear mujahideen."

Coup in Syria?

Some comments on Little Green Footballs indicate that this short article is nonsense. Delicious nonsense, though...

Terri Schiavo

This article is well worth reading in its entirety. It makes a compelling case for intervention by some higher authority than Judge Greer (the sitting judge in the Terri Schiavo actions).

So how can Judge Greer ignore the opinions of so many qualified neurologists, some of whom are leaders in the field? The answer is that Michael Schiavo, his attorney George Felos, and Judge Greer already have the diagnosis they want.

Terri’s diagnosis was arrived at without the benefit of testing that most neurologists would consider standard for diagnosing PVS. One such test is MRI (Magnetic Resonance Imaging). MRI is widely used today, even for ailments as simple as knee injuries — but Terri has never had one. Michael has repeatedly refused to consent to one. The neurologists I have spoken to have reacted with shock upon learning this fact. One such neurologist is Dr. Peter Morin. He is a researcher specializing in degenerative brain diseases, and has both an M.D. and a Ph.D. in biochemistry from Boston University.

In the course of my conversation with Dr. Morin, he made reference to the standard use of MRI and PET (Positron Emission Tomography) scans to diagnose the extent of brain injuries. He seemed to assume that these had been done for Terri. I stopped him and told him that these tests have never been done for her; that Michael had refused them.

There was a moment of dead silence.

“That’s criminal,” he said, and then asked, in a tone of utter incredulity: “How can he continue as guardian? People are deliberating over this woman’s life and death and there’s been no MRI or PET?” He drew a reasonable conclusion: “These people [Michael Schiavo, George Felos, and Judge Greer] don’t want the information.”

Am-Bushed

Hat tip: Powerline.

Q Mr. President, you say you're making progress in the Social Security debate. Yet private accounts, as the centerpiece of that plan, something you first campaigned on five years ago and laid before the American people, remains, according to every measure we have, poll after poll, unpopular with a majority of Americans. So the question is, do you feel that this is a point in the debate where it's incumbent upon you, and nobody else, to lay out a plan to the American people for how you actually keep Social Security solvent for the long-term?
----
Q Paul Wolfowitz, who was the -- a chief architect of one of the most unpopular wars in our history --

THE PRESIDENT: (Laughter.) That's an interesting start. (Laughter.)
----
Q -- is your choice to be the President of the World Bank. What kind of signal does that send to the rest of the world?

Q Mr. President, your judicial nominees continue to run into problems on Capitol Hill. Republicans are discussing the possibility of ending the current Democratic filibuster practice against it. And Democrats yesterday, led by Minority Leader Harry Reid, went to the steps of the Capitol to say that if that goes forward, they will halt your agenda straight out. What does that say about your judicial nominees, the tone on Capitol Hill? And which is more important, judges or your agenda?
----
Q Mr. President, back to Social Security, if I may. You said right at the top today that you urged members of Congress to go out and talk about the problem with their constituents.

THE PRESIDENT: About solutions to the problem.

Q But also to talk about solutions. It's that part of it I want to ask about. Aren't you asking them to do something that you really haven't been willing to do yet?

And our mainstream media wants us to believe they're neutral? Sheesh!

Regulating blogs?

Brad Smith, one of the Federal Elections Commission's (FEC) commissioners, recently made some comments that have been widely interpreted as a thinly vieled threat to the politically active blogosphere. A close reading of his comments does indeed suggest to this reviewer that Mr. Smith actually had the intent to threaten. Scott Thomas, the chairman of the FEC commissioners, has ever since been trying to calm the storm of protest resulting from Mr. Smith's remarks. Mr. Thomas is basically trying to say that the FEC would resort to regulating the blogosphere only under extreme circumstances that (one presumes) he believes everyone would find to be in reasonable need of regulation.

This is a topic on which reasonable men can disagree. My own position is that any regulation whatsoever is unconstitutional on the face of it, and that includes all the free speech suppression provisions of McCain-Feingold.

Bob Bauer (a campaign finance expert for the Democratic Party) recently published a learned analysis of the Brad Smith kerfuffle, ending with these remarks:

But who is creeping through which door? The questions Thomas would have the agency answer—what is news? What is a "legitimate" press function?—are those, in fact, that the proponents of an unshackled Internet would not entrust to the deliberation of the government. Once the FEC has determined that these questions are rightly asked, and that it is poised to competently answer them, it has already seized control of the territory. Those permitted to pass through do so, as stated here previously, as an act of administrative grace which, granted once, may be withdrawn later. It is a matter of four votes.

This is the vast difference between a wholesale exemption for Internet communications, justified by its unique characteristics and a desire to provide for its continued, unimpeded development, and the very different decision to treat those communications much like any other, subject to regulatory whim.

Indeed.

Quote for the day

I would remind you that extremism in the defence of liberty is no vice. And let me remind you also that moderation in the pursuit of justice is no virtue!

   Barry Goldwater

A lost day in court

A LOST DAY IN COURT

A lady about 8 months pregnant got on a bus. Shenoticed the man opposite her was smiling at her. Sheimmediately moved to another seat. This time the smileturned into a grin, so she moved again. The man seemedmore amused. When on the fourth move, she had the manarrested.

The case came up in court. The judge asked the man(about 20 years old) what he had to say for himself.The man replied, "Well your Honor, it was like this:When the lady got on the bus, I couldn't help butnotice her condition. She sat under a sweets sign thatsaid, "The Double Mint Twins are Coming" and Igrinned. Then she moved and sat under a sign thatsaid, "Logan's Liniment will reduce the swelling, andI had to smile. Then she placed herself under adeodorant sign that said, "William's Big Stick Did theTrick," and I could hardly contain myself. BUT, yourHonor, when she moved the fourth time and sat under asign that said,............... "Goodyear Rubber couldhave prevented this accident"... I just lost it."

Quote for the day

Silence is sometimes the answer.

   Estonian proverb

Lebanon -- wow!

Depending on who you want to believe, somewhere between 800,000 and 1,300,000 people descended on Beirut today in the largest protest in the history of Lebanon. This anti-Syrian show of force was a direct counterpoint to the orchestrated pro-Syrian demonstrations late last week. The news (excellent round-up in near real-time at Publius Pundit) continues to pour in, and it's nearly all good. Lebanon looks to be going the route of the Ukraine — it's starting to look very likely that the forces of good will triumph, and in short order.

Who would ever have imagined this, even just a couple of months ago? Feels a bit like those giddy days 15 years ago when the Soviet Union was crumbling...

From Naharnet (Lebanese news):

Lebanon's opposition staged the biggest show of force in the nation's modern history from slain ex-Premier Rafik Hariri's graveside Monday, taking a thunderous oath to break Syria's ruthless stranglehold and tear apart President Lahoud's police state of "secret service phantoms."Between 1.5 and 2 million opposition activists converged on Beirut's downtown Martyrs Square and surrounding neighborhoods to mark the lapse of one month on Hariri's assassination. They shouted slogans demanding the resignation of all security commanders in Lebanon because of dereliction of duty in stopping the assassination.

The demonstration was so huge that Syria's loyalists led bySayyed Hassan Nasrallah's Hizbullah and Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri's Amal movement, who pose as standard-bearers of the Shiite community were dwarfed into an overwhelmed minority.

What made the trick was the massive turnout of the Sunni sect onto the streets of the capital to defy Syria's tutelage. Crowds from densely-populated Sunni neighborhoods stood shoulder-to-shoulder with opposition activists from various Christian communities and Walid Jumblat's Druze sect, chanting "we want the truth, we want sovereignty, we want Syria out." The Sunnis make up the biggest bloc among Lebanon's eligible voters.

One poster brandished among an ocean of Lebanese flags read "long live Syria inside Syria." Another poster read "President Lahoud, rest assured your turn is coming," a reference that he might be overthrown over Hariri's assassination.

Legislator Marwan Hamadeh, who survived an assassination attempt in October, formally opened the sit-in protest by declaring that the massive opposition was "writing the end of President Lahoud's police state and its Syrian backers." He drew thunderous cheers when he announced "this is the end to the one whose regime has been extended and to those who extended his regime." Hamadeh, a former minister under Hariri's premiership, said "the days of the secret service, the days of the ghosts are numbered."

Bahia Hariri, the ex-Premier's sister who is a member of parliament, stole the hearts of the Lebanese when she took the makeshift podium to address her slain brother at his nearby grave in the courtyard of Al-Amin's mosque.

"You have accomplished Lebanon's long-elusive miracle, the miracle of national unity, the miracle of Christian-Muslim unity that has been baptized by your blood," Bahia Hariri said.

She then raised her right arm and urged the crowds to do the same, vowing "we pledge to be loyal to Lebanon, your Lebanon which you rebuild from the rubble of civil warfare. We pledge to you that Lebanon would never be torn by civil warfare again under any circumstance," she said.

Another touching expression of post-Hariri's national unity came in an address to the crowds by Joe Sarkis, the representative of Samir Geagea's Lebanese Forces.

"I want to convey to you Geagea's tribute from eleven years behind prison bars to the national unity welded together by the last tragic thirty days of Rafik Hariri's assassination," Sarkis said.

Another moving address was delivered to the crowds by An Nahar's General Manager Gebran Tueni who declared "you are the biggest party in Lebanon. You are the party of Lebanon." He left the impression that the opposition Party of Lebanon was bigger than the Party of God.

Hundreds of thousands trekked overland and by sea in bus and motorboat convoys to fill the sprawling Martyrs Square and the nearby Riad Solh Square to the brim. Thousands upon thousands assembled at rooftops and nearby highway passes in what old-timers said was the biggest demonstration since Lebanon's 1943 independence.

There were outspoken charges before the demonstration leveled by opposition leaders, accusing the Lahoud regime of standing behind the assassination.

"The secret services have become a death machine, a death mill toiling without letup," had said Hariri's parliament bloc member Walid Ido.

Ido spoke on Hariri's Future-TV network screen a few hours after ex-Defense Minister Mohsen Dalloul directly accused the Lahoud regime of involvement in Hariri's assassination, revealing that a police unit assigned to protect the ex-premier was withdrawn a few days before the crime.

"Hariri had worked out an agreement with President Lahoud to have the police unit assigned to protect and escort him as a former prime minister. The force was actually put on the job and it functioned from Hariri's Koreitem mansion," Dalloul said in an interview aired by the F-TV Sunday night.

"When Hariri's aides managed to reach the official responsible for the protection unit, he said Hariri has plenty of money and he can hire his own security apparatus," said Dalloul, a parliament member who served as defense minister in one of Hariri's governments.

"The crime took place a few days later and now officials are boasting that 'the crime is behind us,' which means they have committed the crime," Dalloul added.

P.S. The girl at right really is a Lebanese demonstrator from today's demonstration. She and many other Lebanese beauties have been prominently featured in many of the photographs accompanying the news stories of events today. I predict tourism to Lebanon is about to pick up sharply, dominated by twenty-something men. And just in case you don't know: that red, white, and green pattern so attractively displayed upon that young woman's person is the flag of Lebanon.

More from Iraq

From his blog masthead: Lance Frizzell is a Medical Platoon Leader in the National Guard, and in civilian live he's the Press Secretary for House Republicans in the Tennessee General Assembly. Now he's posting from Iraq, including photos. What got me to his site was a link to this post about reasons for the UN staying out of Iraq — with a bunch of snapshots of cute Iraqi kids.

Get it? UN rapists, stay out of Iraq.