Saturday, September 14, 2013

An ode to Claude Shannon, by Charlie Martin, who calls him “The greatest genius no one has heard of.”  He's fairly well known in my field, especially to anyone working with error-correcting codes or data compression.  My favorite Claude Shannon quote: “Information is the resolution of uncertainty.”
More NSA scandal fallout: a font designed to be hard to scan to text, yet still be readable by humans.  I don't think this accomplishes anything useful from a technical perspective, but it does raise some attention...
In debt.  Listen to why George Will says he owes his happiness to Barack Obama...
Successful launch.  Japan's newest rocket – the Epsilonwas successfully launched for the first time, putting a research telescope payload into orbit.  Of note: no complex, expensive “command center” was needed for the launch.  Instead, a couple of engineers with ordinary laptops did it.
Dialing back.  Matt Ridley got a preview of the upcoming IPCC report, and he says it dials the global warming alarm rhetoric way back.  Perhaps preparing for a walk-back down the line?
Lucky dog!  A stray for at least 10 years, Sonya has been rescued, and has a home where she's happy and cared for...
Boys would be boys, if only they could...  A good roundup of the painful – and dangerous – consequences of the feminization of American schools.  Progressives just love to deny actual gender differences, despite the clear evidence that it exists.  My own field is a great example: computer science is dominated by men, worldwide, despite widespread availability of computer science education for women...
A shattering experience.  What happens when you freeze flowers in liquid nitrogen, then shoot them with a bullet.  Martin Klimas wanted to know this.  What I want to know is this: what did someone do to Martin when he was a kid, that caused him to wonder things like this?
Incremental ensnarement.  Millions of drivers use E-ZPass when they travel on toll roads or bridges.  Electronic readers see that they pass by, and their credit cards are automatically charged.  Very convenient.  But ... now administrators are setting up E-ZPass readers in New York City (and maybe other places as well) to collect information for other purposes – we don't know exactly what.  But what is alarming to many is that one can easily see how this could turn into a network that knew where you were, all day long.  Anyone with access to that system could find you anytime they wanted to.  Much more like this is coming, as location technologies mature and are dispersed.  Mobile phones, nearly all of which have GPS, are a major security concern for some...
Touchdown!  The photo at right shows the recent landing of a Russian Soyuz spacecraft with three astronauts on board, on the plains of Kazakhstan.  To cushion the landing, small retro-rockets fire very briefly when the craft is one meter (3 feet) off the ground.  U.S. capsules always splashed down in the ocean, whose soft embrace eliminated the need for the retro-rockets.  When Soyuz was developed, the Soviets were afraid of landing anywhere other than their own territory – enough so that the cost and trouble of developing the retro-rocket system seemed worth it.  I wonder how the Russians would make that decision today?
Syria agreement: Russia and the U.S. agree on a plan to relieve Assad of his chemical weapons – but they explicitly leave out the possibility of backing up the demand with military force.  Obama reserves the right to intervene militarily, unilaterally – but not right now, sometime down the road.  If you were Assad, how would you be feeling all this?  I suspect he's spending more time laughing at the bozos in Washington and Geneva than anything else...
Dilbert is awesome!  And so is his mom...  Scott Adams makes me think, makes me laugh ... what more could an Internet citizen ask?
I'm experimenting with some layout changes.  If you see something you don't like, or that doesn't work, please let me know.  Of course, I'd always be happy to hear about it if I managed to accidentally get something right :)

Links of the Day...

Syria roundup: indecisive, holding fire, and the global joke (us).  Mark Steyn on Putin: “In reality, Putin finds his thrill by grabbing Obama’s blueberries and squeezing hard.”  Summary: bad, and trending worse.  Winners: Iran and Pooty-Poot.

Obama administration obeys the law – unexpectedly!  Robert Zimmerman has this exactly right: the big surprise here is that the Obama administration didn't simply ignore the Obamacare law to do what would make their supporters (the unions) happy.   The details are interesting.  But I'm not buying the notion that Obama did this simply because he thought it would be illegal not to.  That's never stopped him before...

Oh, I sure hope so!  Will McCain retire in 2016?

You tell 'em, Rush!  When you want to educate a receptive mind about American Exceptionalism, Rush is the big gun.  He's in fine form here...

Polarization...   This time, we're talking about rural vs. urban.  We see it out here in rural San Diego County.  Physically we're just 35 miles from the big city.  Politically and culturally, we're a million miles apart.  We often feel like we're traveling to a foreign, unfriendly country when we go “down the hill” into town...

Someone found a use for Jerry Brown's California: a place to dump people with mental health issues.  Dave Blount: “Not only will they feel perfectly at home in a state that would react to an economic crisis by putting Governor Moonbeam back in power, but it is suitable revenge for the previously sane parts of the country that have been infected with moonbattery by Californians escaping the mess their liberalism made of their own state.”

Cats and dogs...  Hackers and the FBI – it's getting more difficult to tell them apart.

The inverse-square law rules!  Two big radio-telescopes have imaged Voyager I, whose transmitter emits a mere 22 watts.  Despite being over 11 billion miles from Earth, Voyager's transmitter still looks very bright compared with anything nearby it in the sky.  That's the inverse-square law at work!

Klepto Kitty.  I hear it's applied for a job with the IRS...

More like minimum jobs, you idiots!  Reason's Scott Shackford takes note of California's new $10-an-hour minimum wage, and notes that it's likely to let out what little steam our “recovery” has...

Some speech would be more free than the rest...  A Senate panel yesterday approved a bill that would establish a special class of citizens: journalists.  Without knowing anything more, that's already terrifying!  The bill goes on to enshrine special protections for journalists, most especially protecting the identity of their sources.  That necessarily implies that all us non-journalists won't enjoy such protections.  But ... who, exactly, would be considered a “journalist”?  Well, that's not clear at all.  Some reaction: James Lileks, Matt Drudge, and James Taranto.  They're no happier about it than I am.

The climate models need decades of work, says the National Academy of Science.  But the science is settled?   Maybe they're just trying to figure out how to keep the taxpayer-funded grant money coming.  In which case we need to figure out how to make it stop!

Not good.  NIST is telling people not to use it's elliptic-curve based random number generator standardRandom numbers matter.  Given the Snowden revelations about the NSA, my first thought is: “What else has been compromised?” 

I can't decide.  This is either the best campaign ad evah, or it's an unambiguous sign that the end times are nigh.  Jeff Wagner is running for mayor there, and he wants you to “Wake the fuck up!”

It's a map-a-palooza!...  Go here and click on“PROJECTS” to get started; lots of good things to waste some time with...

Mainstream media to Republicans: “You're obsessed with Obamacare!”  I've got news for you, lamers: it's not just Republicans – we libertarians and independents think it's a crock of bovine fecal material, too...

There, but for the NRA, go we...  Two burglars walk into a jewelry store in Nice, France and threaten the owner with a gun.  The owner pulls out his own gun, chases them off and shoots one in the process.  The burglar dies on the scene.  The jewelry store owner is arrested and charged with voluntary homicide. This is controversial even in France, but it's not at all clear how things will turn out...

They're a good thing – abusers, addiction, and social problems notwithstanding, the doc proclaims.  Our own family doc has much the same attitude, much to our relief.  Of course, Obamacare may change all this.  Just ask any Canadians how easy it is for them to get pain killers.  Unless they come to the U.S., of course...

Well, duh!  What did you think would happen when you hire a bunch of high achievers and put them to work teaching?

Progressive hypocrisy?  Color me totally unsurprised.  Progressive media queen Tina Brown's charity collects millions in donations, then makes a single grant of $10,000.  They're better than us, though.  Don't forget that.

“Get ready.”, said the judge, to release some NSA-related FISA court proceedings.  Basically, he's calling bullshit on government assertions about the need for secrecy in all these matters.  About time!

You feel lucky, punk?  Then go invest in the Twitter IPO, says Megan McArdle (the world's tallest female economics blogger)...

Oh, goody.  The Obamacare health insurance exchanges aren't even open for business yet, and already there's a security breach that exposed private information for 2,400 insurance agents.  But that's ok.  You ain't seen nuttin' yet, buddy...

Friday, September 13, 2013

Phrases Commonly Found in Science Research Papers...

...along with translations into ordinary English:
This list of phrases and their translations (definitions) might help you understand the mysterious language of science in general and medicine / biology specifically. These special phrases are also applicable to anyone working on a Ph.D. dissertation, academic paper or journal article at a university anywhere on earth.

Research PhrasesTranslation / Meaning
It has long been known ...I didn't look up the original reference.
A definite trend is evident ...These data are practically meaningless.
Of great theoretical and practical importance ...Interesting to me.
While it has not been possible to provide definite answers to these questions ...An unsuccessful experiment, but I still hope to get it published.
Three of the samples were chosen for detailed study ...The results of the others didn't make any sense.
Typical results are shown ...This is the prettiest graph.
These results will be shown in a subsequent report...I might get around to this sometime, if I'm pushed / funded.
The most reliable results are those obtained by Jones ...He was my graduate assistant.
It is believed that...I think.
It is generally believed that ...A couple of other people think so, too.
It is clear that much additional work will be required before a complete understanding of the phenomenon occurs ...I don't understand it.
Correct within an order of magnitude ...Wrong.
In my experience ...Once.
In case after case ...Twice.
In a series of cases ...Thrice.
According to statistical analysis.Rumor has it.
A statistically oriented projection of the significance of these findings.A wild guess.
Thanks are due to Joe Blotz for assistance with the experiment and to George Frink for valuable discussions ...Blotz did the work and Frink explained to me what it meant.
A careful analysis of obtainable data...Three pages of notes were obliterated when I knocked over a glass of wine.
It is hoped that this study will stimulate further investigation in this field ...I quit.

Links of the Day...

Syria roundup:  demanding, devilish, anchorless, deceptive, lost, and exploiting.  Summary: bad, trending worse.  Winners: Iran and Pooty-Poot...

All things Feynman.  Richard Feynman, that is.  Lots of videos, photos, links and more here.  One of my personal heroes, taken by cancer after just 69 amazing years on this planet...

Better be quick!  At least in Arkansas, where if you want an investigation of a police homicide, you'll need to file your request within about 30 minutes of the death...

This is just wrong.  Forensic labs get a bonus when the evidence they produce convicts you...

You can't please 'em all...  Labor unions were one of the key supporters of Obamacare – until they figured out what was actually in it.  Many unions are now calling for “fixing” Obamacare (translation: lard it up with more free goodies), and some are actually calling for its repeal.  Hard to know where all that noise is going to lead...

Who's that?  Megan McArdle has an interesting post about the impact of changing demographics on the economy, but it's the photo she chose that caught my eye.  Who are those people with President Ford?  That's Billy Preston on the left, and George Harrison in the middle...

As unions gain power ... they tend to evolve into racketeers and shakedown artists.  We've seen that here in the U.S. in the past, and today with public sector unions.  But in Mexico, unions have elevated the art of the racket to epic proportions.  Teachers there effectively “own” their positions, freely selling or bequeathing them as they please.  Nowhere in the teacher employment criteria does competence appear.  The government is trying to change that, and the unions are fighting back by shutting down Mexico City.  It's not clear who's going to win.  It's very clear who's losing now: the kids.

What the hell is happening to my country?  It's abundantly clear now, even to the most pig-headed of progressives, that Lois Lerner grossly abused her position at the IRS.  In a just world, she'd be prosecuted, and jailed if convicted.  Instead, she's still at the IRS, still being paid, being considered for promotion, got a bonus, and ... isn't being charged, much less prosecuted...

Don't tell Al Sharpton!  Migaloo, the white (albino) humpback whale from Australia...

Talk about redundant systems!  Jonathan Trappe is trying to fly across the Atlantic, slung under 370 helium balloons.  His Facebook page is streaming his log and diary...

Ya think?  Parents are pulling students out of the Michigan school system whose teachers, administrators, and even board members supported a teacher who admitted pedophilia and was convicted and sentenced to 15 to 30 years in prison.

Unexpectedly!  “G” – the gravitational constant – appears to have changed.  Just a little, but still – that's not supposed to happen.  Growing by 0.02% may not sound like much, but in the world of physics that's big change – especially when zero was the expected change...

Another nail in California's coffin...  California's legislature passed an increase in the state's minimum wage, to $10 an hour.  Governor Moonbeam has indicated he'll sign it.  Of course they're completely ignoring the recent instance proof that raising minimum wages causes employers to lay people off.  The “optics” are all those self-serving politicos care about...

Knaves or fools?  Oh, knaves for sure – though they may be fools as well.  Via Moonbattery...

Smoking is bad, part 3,408,622: The cigarettes handed out to WWII troops killed more of them than the enemy did.  And that's not even counting the indirect effects of smoking on physical fitness, which surely killed even more...

But but but...  It's illegal for them to be here, but we'll give them driver's licenses just the same.  Even though I support open legal immigration, and oppose government licensing of almost every kind ... I can't make any sense out of this sort of incremental, ignore-one-law and enforce another nonsense.  We need to straighten the entire mess out, but there's no political motivation to do that – so we get idiocy like this, instead.  California's dominant low-information voters will probably love it.  Along with the illegals, who (thanks to the equally idiotic “motor voter” law) will now be able to vote...

Much clumpier than I expected.  This map, used by Abraham Lincoln, shows the distribution of slaves (as a percentage of population) over the slave states, by county.  Some counties were over 90% slaves!

Eeeeww!  Strange things people do to themselves...

Kermit is not happy.  NASA doesn't just launch rockets these days – it seems they're launching frogs as well!  No word on how this worked out for the frog, but I'm betting the rocket won...

This was completely predictable.  Obamacare supporters want to get rid of ERISA.  Of course – more people contributing to ERISA plans means less people paying Obamacare insurance.  All those promises not to touch ERISA?  Crickets...

You didn't build that.  Bugs didGears, that is...

Calling George Orwell...  Obamacare requires your doctor to collect sexual histories (and much more) from their patients.  And they haven't even started yet!

The mom is at fault, not the zoo.  This seems pretty clear to me.  But I'll bet my opinion is in the minority.  What a collection of ninny-pies we're turning into!

Hopeful signs.  North Korea is starting to look like Eastern Europe in the late '80s.  Maybe it will collapse in a similar manner.  Can't happen too soon for me...

Preventing amputations in our wounded warriors.  Awesome!

The 2013 IgNobles have been awarded.  Beer goggles.  Watch the ducks.  And much, much more...

In the “Surely you're not surprised?!?” department: tenured professors make worse teachers.  Any business manager can tell you that incentives matter...

Tradeoffs.  Google's Android system for smartphones automatically backs up your phone numbers, contacts, WiFi passwords, etc.  But...that means Google has your phone numbers, contacts, WiFi passwords, etc.  Bruce Schneier has written a lot about these sorts of security vs. convenience tradeoffs.  They're only going to get more common, and more difficult to navigate.  We need transparency on these things, and we need liability attached to the right players.  So far all we've seen in the U.S. is reactive, largely ill considered moves...

The CEOs?  Why aren't the politicians in jail?  This article bemoans the lack of Wall Street CEOs in jail for “causing” the latest financial crisis.  The author bemoans the wrong thing – the real problem is that the politicians who enabled the housing bubble (especially) and other systemic problems have never been held accountable.  Nor, most likely, will they ever be...

Unintended consequences...  Apple's newest phones identify you with a fingerprint scanner.  Google pronounces “Passwords are dead!” and pushes biometric identification.  If this stuff works (itself a very dicey assumption), there's a legal issue with biometric identification that may bother you.  In the U.S., the government cannot (not yet, anyway) compel you to provide a password.  They can, however, compel you to provide your fingerprints or other biometric source data.  I don't know about you, but that's enough to prevent me from using it...


Thursday, September 12, 2013

Links of the Day...

Now you've done it, Pooty-Poot...  Putin's got an op-ed in the New York Times that mercilessly mocks The One and his policies.  Some of the commenters get it, some don't.  A selection of reactions to Putin and Obama's Syrian posturings for your delectation: nausea, chagrin, plagiarism, hypocrisy, more hypocrisy, deflection, and confusion.  My take?  Up is down, left is right, and most likely we're screwed and Iran is the big winner...

Molasses kills!  Fish, that is.  But this is just a tenth the size of the Boston Molasses Disaster...

A failure.  What do you call a university that graduates just 16% of its students in 4 years?  Oh, and where only about 25% of its staff is faculty (more are administrators!).  Welcome to California State University, the product of years of progressive efforts...

Rope, tree, some assembly required.  Congress hasn't passed a farm bill yet, and the bought-and-paid-for congress-critters are not happy about this, as their masters are not happy.  So they've come up with a “new” tactic to force the issue: threatening to double milk prices.

First, kill all the lawyers.  That's Megan McArdle's proposal to clear the path for robotic cars in the U.S.  The real problem isn't the lawyers, though they certainly are a tempting target.  The real problem is the entitlement culture that says someone has to be on the hook for anything at all that goes wrong...

Who rules us?  Reader Jim M. passes along this answer:



Wednesday, September 11, 2013

Yesterday's Elections...

The New York Democratic pervs (Weiner, Spitzer) lost.

The nannies lost (Morse and Giron, Colorado's two Democratic gun-controlling state Senators) – recalled from office and replaced with gun rights Republicans.

We won!

Ouch!


And:




And (Hugh Hewett via Twitter):
Caller just now: "The president's problem tonight is he had to give a speech with John Kerry's foot in his mouth"

22 Times Too Cute!

Via my mom:



Quips...

Said by Steven Wright, via reader Jim M.:
I'd kill for a Nobel Peace Prize.

Borrow money from pessimists -- they don't expect it back.

Half the people you know are below average.

99% of lawyers give the rest a bad name.

82.7% of all statistics are made up on the spot.

A conscience is what hurts when all your other parts feel so good.

A clear conscience is usually the sign of a bad memory.

If you want the rainbow, you have got to put up with the rain.

All those who believe in psycho kinesis, raise my hand.

The early bird may get the worm, but the second mouse gets the cheese.

I almost had a psychic girlfriend...But she left me before we met.

OK, so what's the speed of dark?

How do you tell when you're out of invisible ink?

If everything seems to be going well, you have obviously overlooked something.

Depression is merely anger without enthusiasm.

When everything is coming your way, you're in the wrong lane.

Ambition is a poor excuse for not having enough sense to be lazy.

Hard work pays off in the future; laziness pays off now.

I intend to live forever... So far, so good.

If Barbie is so popular, why do you have to buy her friends?

Eagles may soar, but weasels don't get sucked into jet engines.

What happens if you get scared half to death twice?

My mechanic told me, "I couldn't repair your brakes, so I made your horn louder."

Why do psychics have to ask you for your name?

If at first you don't succeed, destroy all evidence that you tried.

A conclusion is the place where you got tired of thinking.

Experience is something you don't get until just after you need it.

The hardness of the butter is proportional to the softness of the bread.

To steal ideas from one person is plagiarism; to steal from many is research.

The problem with the gene pool is that there is no lifeguard.

The sooner you fall behind, the more time you'll have to catch up.

The colder the x-ray table, the more of your body is required to be on it.

Everyone has a photographic memory; some just don't have film.

If at first you don't succeed, skydiving is not for you.

If your car could travel at the speed of light, would your headlights work?

Links of the Day...

Creepy, yet engaging.  With animation and special effects, a few minutes of video can show decades of aging.  It happens slowing enough to be almost imperceptible, yet still all within just a few minutes...

Michael J. Totten has a new Kickstarter project running, to finance a reporting trip to Cuba.  I'm in – he's one our best independent journalists, a refreshingly blunt observer in the dark corners of the world.  As I write this, his project is just $365 short of its tiny $8,000 goal.  If you can, and are so inclined, go support him – he's a resource we need in this crazy world...

Maybe it can be unseen?  Scientists come up with a way to selectively erase memories.  Man, I've seen some things I'd love to be able to forget!  Where do I get some?

Because Obama.  Hybrid Prius tanks and your own senator for a year!  Oh, my.  I can't decide whether to laugh or cry – this spoof is funny, but also too damned close to reality...

Judge OKs TSA lying.  This is how we all get enslaved to the bureaucratsDolores Umbridge would feel right at home there. 

We're going to see many things like this.  As drone technology evolves, people are going to find more and more useful ways to leverage eyes in the sky.  Farmers today, who knows what tomorrow?

When you've lost Bruce Schneier...  The crypto community is a-buzz over a comment by Bruce Schneier that strongly implies he no longer trusts NIST's elliptic cryptography standard.  Presumably he's concerned about the existence of an NSA backdoor. 

He should have canceled the speech.  So says Peggy Noonan, and I agree. He didn't have much to say, and he said it badly...

I don't even like Jello.  So why is this so fascinating?

So wrong, on so many levels.  The WSJ editorial board weighs in with a good analysis of Putin's rescue of The One.  You just can't make this stuff up!

The missing symbol.  An evocative artifact of 9/11 that won't be in the 9/11 museum.  Why not?  Short answer: progressive political correctness...

man ascii and four other very useful *nix commands.  Three of these were new to me.  I'll use them, if I can remember them :)

Ginormous aquifer discovered in Kenya.  They sure need the water badly in many parts of Africa.  I worry, though, about aquifer depletion as has happened in the western U.S....

Amazing acrobatic duet.  Via my mom...

12 Years Ago...

Twelve years ago this morning, 2,977 innocent people, mostly American, were killed by al Qaeda terrorists who hijacked four aircraft.  Two were crashed into the World Trade Center in downtown Manhattan, one was crashed into the Pentagon, and one went down into a field in Pennsylvania (presumably because the passengers overpowered the hijackers).

Like most Americans, I will never forget the shock and horror of that day, or our fears in the days immediately following.  I mourn those 2,977 innocents, and each year on this day I take a few minutes to remember them.

I also will never forget how this nation came together in response.  I celebrate that American spirit each year on this day.  But that sure didn't last long, did it?

As the years go by and our ineffective, intrusive, and downright un-American response to 9/11 congeals into institutional concrete ... I'm beginning to think that the cure was worse than the injury.  The TSA appears to be nearly completely ineffective, but costs billions of dollars each month and is as entrenched as any bureaucracy I've ever heard of.  The NSA revelations, still slowly and painfully rolling out, collectively reveal how precious little our government doesn't know about us.  The only thing that seems to have truly been improved is our intelligence capabilities, and I'm really just hoping for that – inferring from the lack of successful follow-on attacks that our intelligence gathering must be working...

Tuesday, September 10, 2013

Scam Alert: Repair Saver...

I'm sure that you, like me, have received deceptive marketing mail before.  There's one that we get repeatedly – several times a year – that is a great example of the genre.

The cover of the mailed piece looked like this (with my name and address blacked out):
The warning, with its notice of a $2,000 fine and 5 years imprisonment, sounds really scary, doesn't it?  I can just see some nice little old lady reacting to that in exactly the way these marketers want her to: to open it up and find out what she has to do in order to avoid being thrown in the hoosegow.  While that warning is accurate, it's got nothing to do with this letter – it's the penalty associated with interfering with any first class mail.  It's there only to impress you with how vital it is for you to react.  In sales terms, they're building a sense of urgency.

When I saw that warning on the outside, I knew it was going to be some kind of sales pitch on the inside:
Now, if you read this carefully enough, it's obvious that they're trying to sell you something.  In this case, it's an extended warranty.  I have no idea if their insurance product is any good, though I do know that in general extended warranties – especially for cars – are a really bad deal for the consumer, and rife with fraud.  For all I know, this company is selling a perfectly good product.  But they're sure doing it deceptively, starting with the outside of the piece.

Inside, the first thing you see is that they know about the car you have.  We do, in fact, own a 2010 Toyota Tundra.  How this company knows that, I have no idea.  But it makes the marketing piece look more legitimate, doesn't it?  Nice deception.

Then you get the all-uppercase, scary looking notice that your factory warranty has expired, and you will now be responsible for repairs.  Well, of course I will be – if, in fact, our factory warranty has expired.  It has not expired, though, and we still have considerable coverage left on it – for precisely those things this extended warranty covers.  Very, very deceptive – it sure looks like they're trying to get me to buy a warranty for something already covered by my Toyota warranty!

I called the 800 number and got a pleasant fellow named Corey.  He verified that the company name was “Repair Saver” Then I went online to try to find out about the company, and discovered ... nothing.  Almost certainly that means the company is not actually Repair Saver, but instead another company doing business under that name – another deception, and this time it's one that is notorious in the extended warranty industry.  By operating under many names, and changing them frequently, these companies insulate themselves from careful consumers trying to find out about them.  Most especially, they don't want you to find out about all the unhappy customers they have.  It sure looks to me like Repair Saver is one of those.

I really hate this sort of deceptive marketing.  I make it a point to never do business with a company using such tactics.  They've lost my trust as a consumer without me ever buying one of their products...

Lyons Fire: the Final Final Update...

Debbie and I were able to drive up to the edge of the Lyons Fire burned area, right at four corners (where Lyons Valley Road meets Skyline Truck Trail and Honey Springs Road).  We drove a little ways up Honey Springs Road to get a view of the burned area.

There were quite a few fire crew members still on scene, both down by the roads and up in the burn.  A spotter plane circled overhead the entire time we were there (photo at right), and a tanker was working the fire as we approached.  CHP has Lyons Valley Road to the east of Four Corners closed off (presumably it's also closed at the intersection with Japatul Valley Road).

The burned area that we could see is shown below.  In the left-hand photo, north is about at the left edge; in the right-hand photo, east is about at the right edge.  The fire burned right to the top of the ridge at right, and quite possibly beyond that – we simply couldn't see from where we stood, and we couldn't go down Lyons Valley Road to see directly, as it was closed.






Here's a very rough map (below) I drew by hand to show the burn boundaries.  I can't tell for 100% sure, but it appears to me that the fire crews managed to protect all the homes on the north side of Lyons Valley Road.  I don't believe there were any structures in the burn areas uphill from those homes along Lyons Valley Road.

Links of the Day...

The Doom report.  Morningstar recently released a research report detailing the (mostly sorry) condition of the 50 state-run pension plans.  The total of unfunded liabilities was over $1.2 trillion in 2011.  The good news is that some of these state pension plans are in great shape (the bluish states).  The bad news is that most of them are not (the orange states).  I'm surprised by some of these states (New York, Montana, Alaska).  The report is full of great (though depressing) information...

Clear thinking alert!  Bruce Schneier is the best source for calm, clear analysis of security issues that I know of.  His blog is consistently interesting and informative (and on my daily read list), as evidenced by this recent post on the NSA's huge security problem, and on one blood price we're paying for the TSA's security theater...

What the hell is happening to my country?  A co-founder of the Sooner Tea Party (Oklahoma) is going to be tried on charges of blackmail and computer crimes – for sending an email demanding that his state representative do his job...

Low solar irradiance continues...  The NOAA has updated its solar cycle data, and it shows that the unexpectedly low number of sunspots in this cycle continues.  The red line is the NOAA's official prediction, which they've been revising downwards regularly.  Reminder: solar irradiance (brightness) decreases as the number and size of sunspots declines – the opposite of what you might think.  If those scientists who believe global temperatures are quite sensitive to solar irradiance are right, then we're in for a cooler period for at least the next 20 years.  The warmists think this is a lot of hooey...

Let me get this straight...  Kerry says something stupid that the State Department quickly backpedals from, then Putin says “What a great idea!”, Obama says “Yeah, baby!”, and Assad says “Sure, we'll give away all our chemical weapons!”  If someone wrote a novel with that plot, I'd call it implausible.  As I will the idea that Assad will actually give away his weapons, acquired with much expense and effort.  I think he's playing precisely the same game Sadaam did: let the foreigners in, delaying any military action against him, and then evading and hiding like crazy.  Bet you anything that Obama claims victory...

They don't understand business.  In fact, they detest business.  Obama thought he could pay for part of Obamacare simply by taxing the crap out of medical companies.  Now we're all paying the price: those companies, faced with hundreds of millions of dollars in new tax obligations, are laying off employees, abandoning promising research, and relocating to other countries.  The Obamanoids say this is “unexpected” – I call bullshit on that...

Ok, that's weird!  Does the photo of a lotus seed (at right) make you uncomfortable?  If so, you may have trypophobia, which may just be the strangest phobia I've ever heard of...

Stomp the stupid!  How should you respond to a petition asking you to do something technically stupid?  If you're Linus Torvalds, you do it like this:
Where do I start a petition to raise the IQ and kernel knowledge of people? Guys, go read drivers/char/random.c. Then, learn about cryptography. Finally, come back here and admit to the world that you were wrong. Short answer: we actually know what we are doing. You don't. Long answer: we use rdrand as _one_ of many inputs into the random pool, and we use it as a way to _improve_ that random pool. So even if rdrand were to be back-doored by the NSA, our use of rdrand actually improves the quality of the random numbers you get from /dev/random. Really short answer: you're ignorant.
The first computer bug.  Found 66 years ago by Grace Hopper, whom I've written about before...

Where can I buy some of these?  Gut bacteria that let you eat and be skinny...

Bomb Obamacare.  Instead of Syria.  So says Sarah Palin, whose PAC recently released the “death panel” ad at right...

Lyons Fire: Final Update...

The fire now has an official name: the “Lyons Fire”, and it's listed on the CDF incident site.  As of 7 pm last night, they're calling it 250 acres and 10% contained.  This morning's HPWREN view from Los Pinos looks better than that report sounds: there isn't the slightest trace of smoke visible:


We saw CDF aircraft flying over the fire site several times yesterday afternoon and evening, and we heard them early this morning as well.  My somewhat educated guess is that they're doing both visual inspections and infrared inspections, looking for hot spots that need attention.

The speed and efficacy of the firefighter's response was very comforting to us.  When you're living in the midst of tens of thousands of cubic meters of highly flammable fuel, as we and our neighbors are, it's really good to know that competent firefighters have got your back...

Early this morning we were awakened by a completely unexpected sound: rainfall.  We didn't get much – just 3mm, or just over 1/10th inch – but it was very welcome nonetheless.  This morning when we got up, we were completely fogged in – that's normal for March or April, but definitely not for September!  It brought a very welcome coolness and dampness, and though it's not enough water to reduce the fuel flammability for very long, it must have been very welcome to the fire crews (assuming they got the same)...

Monday, September 9, 2013

Lyons Valley Fire Update...

“I think you're looking pretty good right now.”

Just heard that from the CDF fire crews.  Just before that, they said that they were down to just hot spots left; the fire was basically out.

Three cheers for the fire crews!  A bunch of people in Lawson Vally, Lyons Valley, and Deerhorn Valley are breathing a little easier...

Lyons Valley Fire Update...

Current view from Lyons Peak:


From all I can see and hear, it looks like the firefighters (both in the air and on the ground) are making great progress.  On the scanner I heard concerns from fire crews about the fire burning toward Carveacre Ranch, but the latest photo looks like they've largely knocked it down.  These things can flare up in a hurry, especially if the wind kicks up, so we're not out of the woods until they've doused every hotspot...

I just heard the fire crews order 500 lunches.  Hard to believe there are that many in the fire crew!

Fire in Lyons Valley...

At right is a map with a pink shaded area showing roughly where the fire is located.  We believe (though we don't have eyes on it) that it's mainly north of Lyons Valley Road, just easy of Four Corners.

The fire is being actively worked as I write this (2:35 pm).  Debbie and I saw an observation plane orbiting, three tankers attacking the fire directly.  We also heard ground fire crews talking on the scanner.

The wind is light, out of the north.  The fire appears to be burning both to the south (presumably driven by wind) and to the north (which is uphill from the fire's perspective).  We're guessing that the fire crews will be able to contain it at the ridge west of Lawson Peak, if not before.  We certainly hope so, as our home is only a mile or so from that ridge.

Below are a couple of shots from the east-pointing HPWREN camera on Lyons Peak.  As always, this is our best information, as it's nearly real time (the photos are updated every 2 minutes, 24 x 7).

The top shot was taken at 1:44 pm today, the bottom at 2:28 pm.  As you can see, the fire teams have already made a lot of progress.  Go, firefighters!



Links of the Day...

In just three little cartoon frames.  Scott Adams nailed it:  Dilbert on the NSA revelations and reaction to it...

Wait – they needed someone to tell them?  Little Rock, Arkansas has a new teacher dress code: they must wear underwear.  Teacher's union objects strenuously...

Well, she should know...  A Russian immigrant to the U.S. worries that we're becoming what she fled from over 30 years ago.  She has a handy checklist of the characteristics of socialist countries:
  • Controlling people by making them dependent on government for basics such as medical care, property rights and income.
  • Applying separate standards in medical and other services for government employees and acolytes vs. the rest of society.
  • Brainwashing the population starting as early as possible with propaganda that is pro-central government and anti-free market capitalism.
  • Polarizing society by dividing people into groups by ethnicity.
  • Controlling speech, enforcing political correctness and attempting to suppress opposition media.
  • Collecting citizens' personal information using all resources available, including NSA programs.
  • Intimidating opposition through Justice Department investigations of journalists, IRS intimidation of groups and individuals who oppose government policies, and information collected on citizens that becomes quite handy.
  • Demonizing and destroying the livelihood of anyone — from members of the Tea Party to rodeo clowns — who dares to criticize the president.
  • Controlling economic resources via EPA and other regulations despite negative economic consequences.
  • Conducting show trials of freethinkers, such as the 13 felony counts brought against Internet prodigy Aaron Swartz, potentially leading to 30 years imprisonment.
  • Calling for sacrifices in the name of the collective good, promises of a bright future and endless lies about disastrous government failures here and now.
Gulp.

This is what the Internet is for, right?  Team drumming, the DrumCat way...

How's that climate change working out for ya, eh?  Arctic ice cover this year is 60% greater than last year.  Right on cue, the warmists are bleating that this is not evidence against global warming – even though they hooted and hollered last year about the decrease being solid evidence to the contrary.  Hypocrites and shoddy scientists, they are..

Knave or fool?  Is Obama's foreign policy the product of his incompetence, or his belief that America is a force for evil in the world?  Norman Podhoretz, no dummy he, argues knavery in a very scary piece...

Who knew?  In 1892 they knew how to cure just about everything!  Cheap, too!  Professor Wilson's Magneto-Conservative garments...

So this is what a super-power sounds like! John Kerry, on the planned American attacks on Syria: they will be “Unbelievably small.”  Ooooh, I bet Assad is really scared now!

Oh, please, no.  Just no.  Please!  Elections have consequences, and the 2012 elections might have some particularly bad ones...

Interchangeable, they are.  Dave Carter, writing at Ricochet:  “What we are witnessing is a disturbing and seemingly unstoppable coalescence of both major parties into an amalgamation of  autocrats, ambitious to maintain their own power and anxious to relieve us of our property and liberty.”  Makes me want to stock up on guns and ammunition...