U.S. Population Changes Over Time...

This is a fascinating animated graph by Bill McBride at Calculated Risk.  Amongst other things, it makes obvious the reasons for the current and future insolvency of the Social Security system.  Way back when, before FDR, there were vastly more people of working age than of retirement age.  Today, not so much.  In the future, even less.

Of course there are many other repercussions of the demographic changes as well.  For instance, think what it means for healthcare costs, or number of doctors needed per capita, or economic growth, or any of dozens of other topics.

Study this for a while and you'll understand a lot about the dynamics that are affecting this country.  It might also make you rethink opposition to immigration (the vast majority of immigrants are under 30 years old)...

Remember When...

Passed along by reader, friend, former colleague, and Idaho real estate mogul Doug S:

Yes, as a matter of fact, I do remember...

Boston Molasses Disaster...

I happened across this in my morning reading, entirely by accident.  On January 15th, 1919, an enormous molasses storage tank burst, spewing 2.5 million gallons of molasses into the streets of a Boston neighborhood.  This created an 8 to 15 foot high wave of molasses, moving at about 35 miles per hour.  It killed 21 people and injured over 150 more; there was a large amount of property damaged (including buildings and railroad).

And I thought I knew my U.S. history fairly well!

U.S. Population Map...

Now this is just awesome: an interactive, zoomable map of the U.S. with a dot for every person recorded by the 2010 census.  The map has no other features to clutter the view; it shows population and nothing else.

This is a great tool for me as I look for a place for us to live!

Canada has a Front-Row Seat...

...from which to watch the U.S. go down the drain.  Conrad Black is the author; here's his blistering conclusion:

And now, in an astounding demonstration of national fecklessness, a failed president is running slightly ahead in the polls of a challenger who has a real CV, unlike recent presidents, but who is so politically oafish and plastic, he makes Elmer Fudd seem charismatic. The incumbent has raised the national debt by 50% on what had accumulated in the 220 years of American independence prior to four years ago — that is $17,000 for every man, woman and child in the United States, in just four years. And Mr. Obama’s tocsin is the comprehensive assertion that: “Experts agree that my plan will reduce the deficit by $4-trillion.” These magic 13 words confirm the reduction of the deficit from $1.5-trillion annually to $1.1-trillion annually in the next ten years, in a country that four years ago had a money supply of only $900-billion.

About 70% of the American deficit is “bought” directly or through the banking system by the Treasury’s 100% subsidiary, the Federal Reserve, and the minimal interest paid on it is recycled back through the Federal Reserve to the Treasury, so the cost of borrowing is zero. It is the ultimate Ponzi scheme, the fiscal nirvana of endless, mountainous debt, rendered easily bearable because it doesn’t cost anything. It is a fraud, a mirage. It all possesses the hypnotic allure of the Gotterdammerung — as the Gods ascend to a burning Valhalla. If this administration is re-elected, Canada, as it has for the entire mighty spectacle of the inexorable rise of the United States, will have the ring-side seat for a disaster. Prudent, hesitant Canada, ran 14 federal government surpluses in a row. We are the pigs in the brick house — it isn’t a heroic position, neither daring nor stylish, but Canadians are peering through the portals of their stout solid home, transfixed and astonished.

The fact that Willard M. Romney is still running almost even in the polls despite his demiurgic implausibility as a candidate, afflicted by a one-person pandemic of foot-in-mouth disease, illustrates the concern of the American voters. Either Romney lucks through and numerate sanity starts to return to American public life, or the most self-destructively incompetent regime since James Buchanan brought on the Civil War, will come back and stoke up a truly spectacular inferno that will purify America in a mighty economic Jonestown. There will be no more tugging at a trouser leg from Canada — either a comradely pat on the back, or a neighbourly blast with a fire extinguisher, but this operatic crescendo can’t continue for one more full act.

Now go read the whole thing...

Incarceration Rates...

I read an article the other day that mentioned an interesting factoid: the U.S. has a higher incarceration rate than any other country in the world.  I'd seen this before, but hadn't checked into it.  So yesterday, just poking around a bit, I did a little research and came up with this list of incarceration rates by country.

I find this simple list quite sobering.  The U.S. incarcerates (jails or imprisons) 730 people out of every 100,000; a rate of 0.73%.  By itself, that number doesn't really convey very much.  But consider this: Finland – a very modern society – incarcerates just 59 per 100,000 – twelve times fewer than the U.S., and Japan incarcerates even fewer.  Or this, from the other side of the spectrum: the repressive despots of Burma incarcerate just 120 per 100,000 – a sixth the U.S. rate.

Amongst the other countries with high incarceration rates (though none are particularly close to us): Russia, Rwanda, and Belarus.

I know that drug-related incarcerations account for a high fraction of our inmates: between half and two-thirds, depending on who's doing the estimating.  But our incarceration rate is so high that even if you removed two-thirds of them, we'd still be in the top 15% of all countries.

I don't really know what this means, other than that there's something about our society that is in fact quite different than the other countries we think of as our peers.  My long time readers will know that I favor legalization of drugs (I know, I'm a radical – but I have trouble seeing any actual value in the “war on drugs”).  But even with the effects of drug-related crime removed, there's still a very large difference that comes from other causes.  What those are, I haven't a clue.  It's clearly not as simple as our freedom to buy firearms, because other countries with liberal firearms laws have low incarceration rates.  Most likely there isn't any simple explanation. 

A look at U.S. incarceration rates over time (the graph at right) shows that our incarceration rates have been quite high at least since 1925.  With the onset of the war on drugs, the rates increased very quickly.

I'd like to learn more about the causes of our high incarceration rates, so I've started a search for reliable sources of information.  Drop me a line if you know of any, please...

A Milestone...

But not a particularly happy one.  Doug S. points out this post showing that just before the end of the year, the U.S. debt “officially” exceeded our GDP in 2011. 

We all knew this was coming, given the velocity of our debt increases.  There's nothing particularly significant about this milestone; it's akin to your car's odometer rolling over 10,000.  But it's a measure of our debt load that's well into danger territory – expressed as a percentage of our GDP (which is as close as I know how to get to expressing our debt in meaningful terms), our debt is now higher than it's been at anytime since the height of WWII.  Unlike that war, this time our debt load is almost entirely (and voluntarily!) self-inflicted – the costs of both our lengthy wars in Iraq and Afghanistan is only a small piece of this debt load...

USA, Inc.

Mary Meeker has an excellent, objective look at the U.S. budget issues – and she's produced a video overview of that look that's understandable by anyone.  Both highly recommended.  The full report is chock full of illuminating data...





USA Inc. - A Basic Summary of America's Financial Statements

How the World Sees Us...

Musings from Peggy Noonan...

Takers, not Makers...

This is a bit exaggerated by a common bias: not including the entire software industry (and, similarly, other makers of “intangible” products).  Nonetheless, the point is one that I agree with, and worry about...

Looking Back...

At Calvin Coolidge – the much-maligned President who looks pretty darned good to me right now...