“This may seem like a classic case of ivory tower navel gazing...”

“This may seem like a classic case of ivory tower navel gazing...”  Actually it seems to me more like a terribly overdue reality check.  This piece in Slate is a good overview of the current flap in psychology concerning the irreproducibility of the majority of landmark psychological studies.  Reproducibility of experimental results is a key part of what makes science credible.  Certain branches of science – most notoriously the “soft sciences” like psychology – have been more lax than others (like, for example, physics).  That's beginning to change in psychology, and the lessons from this are starting to be applied to some other soft sciences.

Mann et al should be listening, but of course they won't be.  Their fame and fortune both depend on acceptance of their utterly failed models.  This isn't exactly the same as irreproducible experimental results, but it's a close relative...

Introverts Unite!

Introverts Unite!  Sent along by friend, reader, and proud papa of two prodigies (one a Google Engineer, the other a golf champion) Simon M...

“…and I want to thank you for being here.”

“…and I want to thank you for being here.”  That quote will make sense when you watch this video (from whence the quote comes).  But please make sure you've finished your drink before viewing...

“We have the temerity to exist at all, so we have it coming.”

“We have the temerity to exist at all, so we have it coming.”  Thus Judith Levy concludes a beautiful and heart-breaking Ricochet post about how she's feeling right now as a denizen of Israel.

It scares me that so many Americans are neutral on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, even when that neutrality is mainly derived from ignorance.

It shakes me to my core when I hear Americans overtly taking the Palestinian side and advocating the demise of Israel, as I have now quite a few times (mainly from Californians).

Neither of these attitudes reflects my America.  Thankfully, neither is something I've heard yet in northern Utah.  I hope I do not ever hear it here.  There's a nearby university, though, so that hope will likely be dashed.

I cannot for the life of me understand how someone can honestly believe in the moral equivalence of the Hamas attacks and the Israeli defense.  Something is badly broken in this world when millions of people can hold such an objectively falsifiable view.  I can say the same thing for assertions of the moral equivalence of the respective cultures.

I have no answers.  Today, only sorrow.  It feels like grieving.

I can only hope that the Israeli people find the courage within themselves to resist the outside pressures to capitulate.  They must win convincingly against Hamas, or the only light in the entire Middle East will be extinguished...

SF fans...

SF fans – a fascinating post and comment thread on the current state of science fiction, over at Eric S. Raymond's place.

I've been a science fiction fan since the '60s.  In the last few years I've been mostly mining Amazon for past works that I've never read – because I found the vast majority of the modern works pretty, but uninteresting.  ESR articulates exactly this, in a detailed way that I simply don't have the intellectual tools to do.  In the process, he lists publishing houses and authors that may well provide me with a new source of reading material!

$840 million...

$840 million...  That's how much the federal government admits to having spent on the ObamaCare web site.  That is an absolutely incredible figure.  To anyone from the software industry (as I am), it is instantly clear that there is something terribly wrong here, because that number is at least an order of magnitude too high, and probably approaches two orders of magnitude too high.  If I were to guess at a “reasonable” figure for that web site's development, it would be something more like $10 to $20 million – and even that would be making allowances for government inefficiency.

Let's break that down a little bit to see why I immediately know that figure can't possibly represent a well-run project.  Let's assume we're hiring only American software engineers (which, it turns out, was not the case).  Let's assume we're hiring only well-qualified, experienced programmers (which, it turns out, was also not the case).  A guesstimate for the fully burdened cost (that is, salary plus benefits, etc.) of each such engineer would be about $160k annually.  Now let's assume one manager for every 5 engineers (there were actually nearly as many managers as engineers), and that their burdened cost was $200k annually.  There were three years of work.  How big a team would $840 million buy us?  That would be 4,200 software engineers, and a total of 12,600 engineer-years of work.

How much is that?  Well, it's more work that it took to build Windows, Microsoft Office, and OS X combined.  Each of those projects is clearly larger and more complex – and vastly more technically challenging – than the ObamaCare website and it's back-end. 

From another perspective, though, it's not too surprising.  Large software projects are notoriously difficult to manage.  Like any veteran of the software industry, I can cite numerous examples of failed projects from my own personal experience.  Sometimes the failures are technical, sometimes business, sometimes management – or any combination of the three.  In a business, however, failures tend to get recognized and fixed relatively early, before the cost (relative to benefit) gets out of hand.  When the government is running the show, none of the usual business incentives to find and fix a problem early are in place.  Instead, there is a perverse opposite incentive, to keep the bureaucracy running – so the government's classic behavior in the face of a failed project is to throw more and more money at it.  I'd be willing to bet you that that's what happened here.

Very sad, the way my tax dollars were totally wasted here.

Virtually every development executive – no matter how bad – in every software company I've ever worked with would likely have done a better job, if given business-like incentives.

Pardon me for a while, please.  I need to go cry...

Hotel Viru...

Hotel Viru...  I stayed here once, on one of the worst hotel experiences in my life (and I have a pretty good collection of personal hotel horror stories!).  The year was 1992 (I believe).  The hotel's management hadn't yet absorbed western ways; the experience was largely unchanged from Soviet times (which had ended just the year before), right down to the not-so-little old lady who sternly dispensed and handed out room keys in the hallway where my room was located.  The highlight: my bed.  It was made from a carefully stacked collection of thin, flat cinder blocks – each about the size and shape of a half-high shoe box.  There were no holes in them; they were solid blocks.  On top of this stack was a straw-filled “mattress”, roughly 2 inches thick.  Pieces of straw stuck through the mattress and the sheet, leaving me full of skin irritations in the morning.  I'm a civilized guy – sleeping on a pile of uncomfortable straw was not my idea of fun!

I was traveling with a colleague, who told me his room was ok.  Nothing to write home about, but perfectly acceptable.  We were there on a business trip, to meet with a small Estonian company that we were considering acquiring (we did).  Several people we met from that company told us of the KGB reputation of the Hotel Viru.  I felt as though I should be careful what I said, though I didn't really have anything to talk about that would be interesting to anyone at all, much less the KGB :)

This is hard to credit...

This is hard to credit ... until I remember how ignorant so many Americans are of where their food comes from.

On another level, it's very sad.  It's as if dairy farmers never ate cheese or yogurt, or wheat farmers never had bread...

Bullshit is asymmetric warfare!

Bullshit is asymmetric warfare!  It's obviously true, but I never put the two thoughts together before.  It's no wonder there's so much bullshit in politics, then: it's a very efficient way to wage political warfare.  Just as it costs Hamas far less to attack Israel than it costs Israel to defend itself, a politician employing bullshit is going to spend far less than his or her opponent who is not.

This has led directly to our current situation, where virtually all of our politicians lead with the bullshit – in which case it's not asymmetric anymore...

Back in town...

Back in town...  And for a while this time.  I just got back (late last night) from running Debbie back down to Jamul.  We were on the road for just over 16 hours on Sunday, then I was on the road for 13 and a half hours yesterday.  I don't want to drive anymore :)

When I walked into the house last night, I saw our refrigerator and our range out in the middle of the floor, with tile installed where they need to go.  Hooray!  But ... the dishwasher was still in its hidey-hole in the cabinetry.  Turns out the installer (a kid who looked like he was about 12 years old) from Home Depot had hardwired a very short power wire to it.  So I turned off the breaker and disconnected it – only to discover that the juvenile installer had done a horribly unsafe installation job.  Yikes!  I spent the next hour on the phone to Home Depot, letting them know what I thought of their installation service (which I paid good money for).  I'm getting a refund.  I'm also not ordering their installation service again.  When I can easily do a better job myself, it just makes no sense.  If it's a difficult job, I'll hire a craftsman.  Someone who is at least 30 years old :)

They'll raise the price of me!

They'll raise the price of me!

A brief history of lossless compression...

A brief history of lossless compression...  This is from the IEEE history network.  It's been over 20 years since I did anything serious with compression, back when I was (very) peripherally involved with the LZS algorithm (I worked for Stac Electronics and with Doug Whiting, the developer of LZS).  I see a few small errors (especially with dates) in the stuff I have personal knowledge of, but generally it seems pretty accurate.  Most everything they mention that's after about 2002 is all new to me...

House remodeling update...

House remodeling update...  There was much progress while we were gone, but also a few disappointments:

• The barn still hasn't been started.  There have been many reasons for the slippage, mostly small things, but they add up: the original start date was “before the end of April” – and here we are almost three months after that, and we're still being held up.  The final hurdle (we hope it's the final hurdle!) is sign-off from the County planner after we got an engineer to sign off on the plans.  We should have a permit by early next week...
• The flooring is about 90% done.  The only remaining bits are some difficult stuff in the kitchen (under the range and refrigerator, mainly), the cattery (the easiest part of the entire flooring job), the trim around the cabinets, and the several transitions between tile and wood flooring in the house.  Oh, and the two sets of stairs between the first and second floor.  Ok, maybe 75% done :)
• The master bathroom is completely tiled, the new vanity and medicine cabinet are installed, the vanity has been measured for its granite top, and the granite slab is in the fabrication process.  With any luck at all, we can have the granite installed within 2 weeks, and a week later we should have the finish plumbing and electrical work done – and we'll have an actual bathroom.  The tiling job is gorgeous – the fellow who did it is an old-school craftsman who took his time on it.  I had a chance to talk with him when he was maybe a quarter finished, and he was having a lot of fun with it – mainly because of the materials he was working with, and the challenges of the layouts he was employing.  The walk-in shower will be by far the nicest shower we've ever had in any home we've lived in: 5'6" square, with an “ell” to keep the shower from splashing into the rest of the bathroom, even though there's no shower door.
• Our small balcony on the second floor now has a beautiful new railing, and it's strong enough to stop a tank.  To compare it to the old railing is like comparing a toy pedal car to a Mercedes...
• The other remodeling projects (new main fireplace, new stovepipe for the basement, etc.) were all on hold while we were gone.

Let me get this straight...

Let me get this straight...  Perfect!

San Juan Mountains Trip of 2014...

San Juan Mountains Trip of 2014...  I'm publishing the day-by-day posts (slowly), and you can see them all here.  There's a link on the right hand column, down under “Filtered Views” that will let you see these posts any time you want to...

This is an actual flower garden...

This is an actual flower garden...  It's not a painting.  It's located in Japan...

Another great optical illusion...

Another great optical illusion...

Purely coincidence...

Purely coincidence...  According to a poll I read this morning, 73% of the American public thinks it's “obviously false” that all these IRS officials had their hard disks crash at around the same time.  That poll leads to this obvious question: what the hell is wrong with the other 27%???

Works for me every time!

Works for me every time!  Via friend and reader Simon M...

What comes after ObamaCare?

What comes after ObamaCare?  ObamaGolf, of course!  Via my lovely bride:

(Receptionist) Hello, Welcome to ObamaGolf.  My name is Trina. How can I help you?

(Customer) Hello, I received an email from Golfsmith stating that my Pro V1 order has been canceled and I should go to your exchange to reorder it.  I tried your web site, but it seems like it is not working. So I am calling the 800 number.

(Receptionist) Yes, I am sorry about the web site. It should be fixed by the end of 2014. But I can help you.

(Customer) Thanks, I ordered some Pro V1 balls.

(Receptionist) Sir, Pro V1's do not meet our minimum standards, I will be happy to provide you with a choice of Pinnacle, TopFlite , or Callaway Blue.

(Customer) But I have played Pro V1 for years.

(Receptionist) The government has determined that Pro V1s are no longer acceptable, so we have instructed Titleist to stop making them.  TopFlites are better, sir, I am sure you will love them.

(Customer) But I like the Pro V1.  Why are TopFlites better?

(Receptionist) That is all spelled out in the 2700 page "Affordable Golf Ball Act" passed by Congress.

(Customer) Well, how much are these TopFlites ?

(Receptionist) It depends sir, do you want our Bronze, Silver, Gold or Platinum package?

(Customer) What's the difference?

(Receptionist) 12, 24, 36 or 48 balls.

(Customer) The Silver package may be okay; how much is it?

(Receptionist) It depends, sir; what is your monthly income?

(Customer) What does that have to do with anything?

(Receptionist) I need that to determine your government Golf Ball subsidy; then I can determine how much your out-of-pocket cost will be.  But if your income is below the poverty level, you might qualify for a subsidy. In that case, I can refer you to our BallAid department.

(Customer) BallAid ?

(Receptionist) Yes, golf balls are a right, everyone has a right to golf balls.  So, if you can't afford them, then the government will supply them free of charge.

(Customer) Who said they were a right?

(Receptionist) Congress passed it, the President signed it and the Supreme Court found it Constitutional.

(Customer) Whoa.....I don't remember seeing anything in the Constitution regarding golf balls as a right.

(Receptionist) There's no explicit mention of golf balls in the Constitution, but President Obama is a former constitutional scholar and he believes it would have been included if the Constitution had not been drafted by a bunch of slave-owning white men.  The Democrats in the Congress and the Supreme Court agree with the President that golf balls are now a right guaranteed by the Constitution.

(Customer) I don't believe this...

(Receptionist) It's the law of the land sir. Now, we anticipated most people would go for the Silver Package, so what is your monthly income sir?

(Customer) Forget it, I think I will forgo the balls this year.

(Receptionist) In that case, sir, I will still need your monthly income.

(Customer) Why?

(Receptionist) To determine what your 'non-participation' cost would be.

(Customer) WHAT? You can't charge me for NOT buying golf balls.

(Receptionist) It's the law of the land, sir, approved by the Supreme Court. It's $49.50 or 1% of your monthly income.....

(Customer)(interrupting) This is ridiculous, I'll pay the $49.50.

(Receptionist) Sir, it is the $49.50 or 1% of your monthly income, whichever is greater.

(Customer) ARE YOU KIDDING ME? What a ripoff!!

(Receptionist) Actually sir, it is a good deal. Next year it will be 2%.

(Customer) Look, I'm going to call my Congressman to find out what's going on here. This is ridiculous. I'm not going to pay it.

(Receptionist) Sorry to hear that sir, that's why I had the NSA track this call and obtain the make and model of the cell phone you are using.

(Customer) Why does the NSA need to know what kind of CELL PHONE I AM USING?

(Receptionist) So they get your GPS coordinates, sir.

(Door Bell rings followed immediately by a loud knock on the door)

(Receptionist) That would be the IRS, sir. Thanks for calling ObamaGolf, have a nice day...and God Bless the Land of the Free and the Home of the Brave.