- Neither Trump nor Clinton made it to 270 electoral votes, Evan McMullin takes Utah (and it's electoral votes) and the election goes to the House where McMullin is the compromise candidate. In this scenario it doesn't matter who controls the House or the Senate. This was a low probability outcome, but not implausible.
- Hillary wins the presidency, but Republicans had firm control of both the Senate and the House. This was a recipe for total gridlock, which means no giant entitlement programs would (hopefully!) be enacted, and also no giant new tax scheme.
- Hillary wins the presidency, the Democrats take the Senate, and the Republicans hold the House. This is still gridlock city, but riskier.
- Trump wins the presidency, the Democrats take the Senate, and the Republicans hold the house. This is very similar to the preceding bullet in terms of legislative risk.
- Trump wins the presidency, and the Republicans had firm control of both the Senate and the House. This is a balance that could actually get things done, which is ... terrifying, given Trumps public policy pronouncements.
So we ended up with my last and least-favorite scenario. Prior to last night, with only the polling to go on, this seemed nearly as unlikely as the first bullet – and yet, here we are. My biggest fear at the moment is that Trump will actually follow through with his anti-free-trade babble, get it through the Congress, and cause significant economic damage in the process. My biggest hopes are that he does follow through with a repeal of ObamaCare, and that he nominates originalist Supreme Court justices.
Both Trump and Clinton gave exemplary, calm speeches after the election. It would be oh-so-pleasant if this spirit prevailed from now on, but I expect it to end around, oh, noon today.
I think my alcohol consumption is quite likely to go up over the next four years...
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