Thursday, August 31, 2006

A Convenient Lie

Al Gore’s movie “An Inconvenient Truth” has a premise that dangerous global warming caused by human activity is a proven scientific fact.

That premise is false. Al Gore’s movie should have been titled “A Convenient Lie”.

In fact, there is no scientific consensus on almost any aspect of global warming, most especially with respect to mankind’s contribution to it as compared with the natural contribution.

Boston Globe columnist Alex Beam recently wrote this:

Speech codes are rare in the industrialized, Western democracies. In Germany and Austria, for instance, it is forbidden to proselytize Nazi ideology or trivialize the Holocaust. Given those countries' recent histories, that is a restraint on free expression we can live with.

More curious are our own taboos on the subject of global warming. I sat in a roomful of journalists 10 years ago while Stanford climatologist Stephen Schneider lectured us on a big problem in our profession: soliciting opposing points of view. In the debate over climate change, Schneider said, there simply was no legitimate opposing view to the scientific consensus that man - made carbon emissions drive global warming. To suggest or report otherwise, he said, was irresponsible.

Indeed. I attended a week’s worth of lectures on global warming at the Chautauqua Institution last month. Al Gore delivered the kickoff lecture, and, 10 years later, he reiterated Schneider’s directive. There is no science on the other side, Gore inveighed, more than once. Again, the same message: If you hear tales of doubt, ignore them. They are simply untrue.

I ask you: Are these convincing arguments? And directed at journalists, who are natural questioners and skeptics, of all people? What happens when you are told not to eat the apple, not to read that book, not to date that girl? Your interest is piqued, of course. What am I not supposed to know?

He goes on to describe his discovery that there is no consensus on Al Gore’s inconvenient “truth”. It’s well worth reading.

Now my state (California) has passed an emissions cap law that is intended to mitigate global warming (read about it here and here $). My summary: California just decided to voluntarily spend billions of dollars and discourage a wide variety of manufacturing industries, all for a reason based on junk science and political correctness.

Earlier this week, our state Assembly passed a bill mandating Hillary-style “single payer” health insurance. This is the system that exists in Britain and Canada today, the same system that has Brits and Canucks fleeing their country to find reasonable quality health care, delivered in a timely fashion. The waiting list for MRIs in Toronto is about six months; for heart bypasses in London over a year. Doctors are fleeing both countries — not for better health care, but to make more money, as the single payer system has relentlessly chipped away at their entrepreneurial opportunities. Our Assembly has decided that we need this sort of third-world medical care in California. Their apparent motivation? They want to make sure that all illegal aliens would have taxpayer-funded health care coverage (I read the bill myself, and that is exactly what it mandates). This bill is sitting in front of Governor Schwatzenegger, who has not announced where he stands on it. I sure hope he’s on the side of the angels on this one…

The first event makes me long for a revolution in Sacremento. The second one, should Schwartzenegger sign it, will have me seriously considering moving out of state.

Hmmm… I wonder if Jamul could secede from California?

6 comments:

  1. In the old blog, Anonymous said:
    “Al Gore’s movie “An Inconvenient Truth” has a premise that dangerous global warming caused by human activity is a proven scientific fact.That premise is false. Al Gore’s movie should have been titled “A Convenient Lie”."The premise is not false. The truth or falsity of the premise is unknown until it is determined weather human activity is the cause of the current global warming. As you say, there is no scientific consensus that human activity is causing global warming, but neither is there scientific consensus that human activity is not a factor in global warming. But until there is scientific consensus one way or the truth or falsity of the premise is unknown.

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  2. In the old blog, Anonymous said:
    Hmmm…I don’t think so. I said that the movie’s premise is that dangerous global warming caused by mankind is a proven scientific fact. That premise is false — no such thing has been proven.

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  3. In the old blog, Anonymous said:
    Forgive me, the word proven does make it very different, I didn’t read as well as I should have.

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  4. In the old blog, Anonymous said:
    Forgive you? I cherish you, oh anonymous one who is unconventionally civil. You do realize that you’re bucking the trends with this flagrant display of politeness? I’m sure three or four organizations have already blacklisted you — and if you happen to be of a liberal mindset, there may already be Kos kids working on making certain that you never occupy public office…

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  5. In the old blog, Jeff said:
    I’m not necessarily anonymous, just too lazy to change the name. I am Jeff, your (former) ucsd reader. And I must ask for forgiveness because I have a degree in philosophy and I should have read that sentence with greater care. Since I’m commenting again I’ll say something about (your joke of) Jamul seceding from CA. While some there may like that idea, it wouldn’t be the same Jamul. Try fighthing wild fires for instance. A sovereign Jamul wouldn’t be the Jamul you and I know and love.

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  6. In the old blog, Anonymous said:
    Well, hello again Jeff! “former” UCSD reader? Which part of that is “former” {smile}?

    On Jamul seceding: of course from a practical standpoint such an effort could never succeed — politicians in San Diego County and Sacremento would make sure of that! But something I suspect you don’t know, from your comment, is this: most rural areas in California — Jamul most definitely included — generate far more tax revenue than they are allocated. Supposing we could somehow pull off the miracle of releasing Jamul from the larger political entities, Jamul would actually see an increase in tax revenues (assuming no rate changes), since it would now get to keep all the taxes collected on its land. By “fighting wildfires” you’re probably thinking about the very large efforts such as were involved in the Cedar Fire. As I understand it, those efforts are funded largely ex post facto by emergency appropriations, and most of that is federal money. So as long as Jamul didn’t secede from the United States, but just from California and San Diego County, I suspect an accommodation could be reached — much as it has with the Indian reservations.

    As I look back on what I just wrote, I realize I dove into a technicality and missed the real point I wanted to make, which is this: big government (e.g., state, county) isn’t necessarily the only way to get communal services. Cooperative agreements between sovereigns are common. For example, I have spent a lot of time in the teensy country of Estonia — roughly the size of San Diego County, with less than a third the population, more swamps, and much smaller mountains. Their federal government is tiny compared to San Diego County’s government. And yet…they have the full range of services that we think of as part of the modern state’s duty. How’d they do it? By finding ways to cooperate with their neighboring countries, most especially Finland and the other Baltic States — and they didn’t have to become a county in Finland or a state in Latvia to do it…

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