Friday, May 16, 2014

San Diego fires update...

San Diego fires update...  The map at right (click to embiggen) comes from the GeoMAC viewer, a great resource for anyone concerned with wildfires.  The map can be interactively configured to show MODIS satellite data (the one-kilometer circles you see on this map) or HMS satellite infrared data (the smaller yellow dots).  Both of these are updated in real time as the satellites make passes overhead (their schedule is slightly complicated, but you can find them online).  Unlike the news media, which tends to spout reports long after they are obsolete, this is hard observational data.  In our own (far too intimate) experience with the 2007 San Diego fires, only this satellite data and the images from the HPWREN camera network proved to be reliable sources of near-realtime information.  The CalFire incident site has reliable information, but isn't updated regularly – those folks have other things to do.  Everything we heard on radio or TV was, to be blunt, sensationalized bullshit.  Sometimes it was even dangerously misleading.

The picture painted by this morning's satellite data is considerably better than even just last night.  The fire near the center of Camp Pendleton continues to look bad, but on the other hand that's mostly undeveloped chaparral, so relatively little damage will be done to structures there.  On Escondido's western border there is still an active fire – but between Carlsbad and San Marcos, the satellites haven't seen any active fire for 24 hours now (this is good news for several of our friends who live near there, including Doug W. who lost his home to a similar fire in 1996 and rebuilt there).

One thing we're hearing from all over: there is a remarkable difference in the effectiveness of the firefighting response this year, as compared to 2007 and earlier fires.  We've seen some of this on smaller fires over the past few years, but now we're seeing it on a much larger scale.  It isn't that new technology is helping, either – it seems to be a combination of (vastly) better leadership, a focus on solving the actual problems, and more equipment (in particular, air assets).  Debbie and I are about to leave this problem behind us, as we move our household to Utah ... but still, it's very nice to see this more competent response...

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