Thursday, January 2, 2014

IPCC faces its enemy: data...

IPCC faces its enemy: data...  The IPCC has – very quietly – slashed it's estimates of global warming rates to one third their previous estimates.  This is the highest value they could possibly defend in the presence of accurate (and public!) recent temperature data.

Am I the only one irritated by climatology's institutional willingness to describe computer modeling efforts as “science”, when those models are so evidently invalid?  The simple fact that they pool dozens of models together to arrive at a (claimed) “model consensus” is, all by itself, enough to completely invalidate the idea.  It seems to me that global climate models are a valuable tool for testing our understanding of the natural mechanisms that drive climate.  But...taking 32 (or 37, or 42, or whatever the number is this week) different models, each with different assumptions, and each individually failing to have any predicative value, averaging them, and then claiming that the numerical result is valid and useful as a vision of our temperature future – that seems like something approach madness to me!

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