Tuesday, August 3, 2010

November Portents...

From RealClearPolitics, this graph nicely shows the so-called generic ballot tracking poll.  The questions asked on this poll gauge voters' perceptions of the Republicans (red) and Democrats (blue) generically, as opposed to any particular candidate.  If you compare the history of this poll's results to the actual election outcomes, what you find is that the poll slightly understates the outcome for Republicans.  That is, the respondents to these polls tend to vote for Republicans a little more than what the poll indicates.

Right now, the Republicans lead the Democrats by 6.5% – a 19.9% gain since Obama's first days in office.  That's a remarkable gain, the largest the poll has ever measured.  In 1994, the last time the Republicans took over Congress, the Republicans had just a 3.5% lead in this poll.

The portents are good for the Republicans...

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