State of the Union...

Several readers have written to ask me why I haven't commented on President Obama's State of the Union (SOTU) address on Wednesday.

Well, firstly, I didn't listen to it, though I have read the transcript and watched a few of the video clips.  The SOTU has evovled into a choreographed and essentially meaningless platform wherein the President (a) claims credit for everything under the sun, and (b) promises everything else under the sun.  The credit taken is usually false, the promises hardly ever attempted, much less kept.  I fully expected Obama to exceed all of his predecessors in the preceding, and in that I was not disappointed.

What did surprise me was the number and magnitude of the outright fabrications in his address.  Most of these are simple matters of fact, readily checked.  He's already being called on these errors of fact by many observers, including even some of the most liberal commentators around.  There's no doubt that Obama knew these statements were lies, so that means they must be deliberate and – sadly – he must believe that he can get away with them.  In other words, he thinks the American public is so stupid and so ill-informed that they won't realize he's lying to them. 

Based on a small sample of friends and colleagues I've talked with, Obama is badly mistaken on this point.  His SOTU address pissed off a lot of people, and disgusted even more.  You can count me amongst the latter; I was already pissed off before the SOTU...

Possible Origin of the Moon...

If you're at all interested in astronomy and space, you probably already know that the origins of the Earth's moon is one of the more enduring scientific mysteries – and it's right next door!  Here's a new possibility for the origins of our nearest neighbor in space.  It's the first one I've read in many years that actually sounds plausible.  It involves nukes.

Scale of the Universe...

An awesome interactive web page that explores a very wide range of spatial scale in the universe.  Just move the slider back and forth...

Missing in Action: Our Hummingbirds...

For two weeks now, our hummingbird feeders have been completely empty.  Where normally we saw dozens of hummingbirds all day long, we have quite literally not seen a single hummer for two weeks now.  Our neighbors report the same phenomenon.  This has never happened before in the eight years we've been actively feeding the little guys, so we're all quite bewildered.  Also a bit worried.  Where are our hummers?

We've only got two theories:

1. The hummers knew the big rains were coming, and left for Cabo (or some other warm, dry place).  One variant to this theory: they all left to go “down the hill” to El Cajon or some such place, and they'll be back soon.
   
   
2. Something awful happened that killed them all - a disease, perhaps.  

If any of my readers happen to know anything about the great hummingbird departure, we'd sure appreciate your leaving a comment here...

ClimateGate: The Unraveling of AGW...

If you read the news about AGW and “climate change” carefully, as I do, you must be marveling at the change in tone and content over the few weeks since the CRU emails were revealed.  In that short time the skeptics have been transformed from fringe elements ignored by the lamestream media into a group that's regularly reported on – and the AGW crowd has simultaneously transformed from media darlings with vast policy influence into suspected criminals and cheaters and corruptocrats being studiously ignored by the politicos.  Amazing!

Just this past week, more AGW-related news – nearly all of it bad for the AGW folks – came out than in the entire year preceding the CRU email revelations.  An incomplete roundup:

• UK officials decide that the University of East Anglia breached the UK Freedom of Information Act.
• Public concern about global warming is still dropping steeply.
• More and more AGW proponents in the science community are either bailing out of AGW-related roles or are turning into outright skeptics.
• More and more evidence of data manipulation is seeing the light of day.
• The IPCC report is being revealed for the political position piece that it really is, which means that it is fraudulent science.

The general opinion these days seems to be that the IPCC is in for a big shakeup, including the almost certain removal of its controversial head.  It looks quite unlikely that Jones will return as the CRU's head.  The University of Pennsylvania appears to be genuinely upset at the shenanigans of Michael Mann, casting doubt on his reign there.  And last but not least, the NOAA (part of NASA) is actively cleaning up their act on their web site, removing unsupported claims and unreviewed “science”, leading to speculation that the notorious James Hansen may be on the outs there. 

Will these wonders ever cease?  One hopes not!

Political Cartoon of the Day...

Via my plugged-in mom:

I don't much care for my position on this chart.  Do you?

Looking Forward...

According to my mom, this is about what I should expect:

A group of 40 year old former college buddies meets to discuss where they should have dinner. Finally it is agreed that they should dine at the Gausthof zum Lowen restaurant because the waitresses there have low cut blouses and nice breasts.

10 years later, at 50 years of age, the group meets again and once again they discuss where they should meet. Finally it's agreed that they should meet at the Gausthof zum Lowen because the food is very good and the wine selection is good also.

10 years later, at 60 years of age. the group meets again and again they discuss where they should dine. Finally it's agreed that they should meet at the Gausthof zum Lowen because they can eat there in peace and quiet and the restaurant is smoke free.

10 years later, at 70 years of age, the group meets again and once again they discuss where they should dine. Finally they once again decide that they should meet at the Gausthof zum Lowen because the restaurant is wheel chair accessible and even has an elevator.

10 years later, at 80 years of age, the group meets again and once again they discuss for over an hour where they should eat. Finally they decide that they should meet at the Gausthof zum Lowen -- all agree it's an excellent choice because they have never been there before.

Nice, mom...

Move Over Law...

Reader Dick F. passed along an email that talks about a new law coming into effect in California on January 1, 2010.  The law cited is called the “move over” law, and according to the email we Californians became the 48th state to enact this law.  The basic idea behind the law is that if you see any kind of emergency vehicle displaying flashing lights, you're required to move over one lane (if it's possible), leaving an empty lane between you and the emergency vehicle.  The email goes on to cite one man's experience with the law, claiming he got a $754 ticket, 3 points on his license, and had a mandatory court appearance.

With a little research on the web, I was able to sort the reality from the garbage in that email.

First, while there was a revision to the move over law this year, the law has actually been on the books and in effect since 2007.  The revision this year simply removed the “sunset” provision in the original law that would have automatically taken the original law off the books on January 2, 2010.

Second, the fine – both in the original law and in the revision ” is limited to $50.  There are no points on drivers licenses cited, and there is no mandatory court appearance.

You can read for yourself the actual law, a web site supporting the law, and the press release concerning the revised law.

Messianic Pharmaceuticals Presents...

Via my mom.  The accompanying text says that the cartoon is from Scotland and that the whole world is laughing at us.  What I've read in the UK press (which is far less homogenized than ours) is a mixture of poking fun at us (from the conservative-leaning outlets) and disappointment and dismay (from the left-leaning outlets)...

AGW Unvraveling...

ClimateGate seems to have begun the long-overdue process of critically examining the science and the corruption within the AGW community.  The latest revelation is the outright falsehood of IPCC claims about the damage global warming is doing in the Amazon Basin.  As James Delingpole says:

Here’s the latest development, courtesy of Dr Richard North – and it’s a cracker. It seems that, not content with having lied to us about shrinking glaciers, increasing hurricanes, and rising sea levels, the IPCC’s latest assessment report also told us a complete load of porkies about the danger posed by climate change to the Amazon rainforest.

Read the whole thing.

Best Economics Music Video Evah!

I'm fairly certain I have no other posts with both “Music” and “Economics” tags...

Benford's Law...

Have you ever noticed that a disproportionate amount of numbers start with the digit one?  For instance, if you were to go through a newspaper and tally up the numbers that appear there, you'd find that about 30% of them start with a one.  Why is it 30%? This odd phenomenon continues with the other digits – about 16% of numbers start with a two, and smaller and smaller proportions until you get to nine.  What's going on here?

The first person to study this was a fellow named Frank Benford, and the proportions above are said to follow “Benford's Law”.  If you follow the news carefully, you may recognize Benford's Law, as it was used last year to prove that the election results from Iran were faked – the returns should have followed Benford's law, but they did not.

If you'd like to understand more about both what Benford's Law actually is (it's a bit more complex than the simple version I gave above), and especially why it is, here's an easy-to-understand explanation.

Debbie's Home!

Much happiness in our household. 

She played a trick on the dogs – as we pulled into our driveway, she opened her window and ducked down out of sight.  I let the dogs out to run in the yard, and then she called them.  Oh, we had some very happy dogs – whimpering, leaping and twirling for sheer joy, and nearly knocking her down with their enthusiastic greetings...

“We Regret It.”

Via a liberal friend who does not want to be named:

Wow.

Folk Wisdom, from the Mouth of a Babe...

Via my mom, who must have tapped into a productive lode here recently:

A Congressman was seated next to a little girl on the airplane when he turned to her and said, 'Let's talk. I've heard that flights go quicker if you strike up a conversation with your fellow passenger.'

The little girl, who had just opened her book, closed it slowly and said to the total stranger, 'What would you like to talk about?'

'Oh, I don't know,' said the congressman. 'How about global warming or universal health care', and he smiles smugly.

OK, ' she said. 'Those could be interesting topics. But let me ask you a question first. A horse, a cow, and a deer all eat the same stuff - grass. Yet a deer excretes little pellets, while a cow turns out a flat patty, and a horse produces clumps of dried grass. Why do you suppose that is?'

The legislator, visibly surprised by the little girl's intelligence, thinks about it and says, 'Hmmm, I have no idea.'

To which the little girl replies, 'Do you really feel qualified to discuss global warming or universal health care when you don't know shit?

Har!

Miracle on the Hudson (Simulation)...

Via my mom, this excellent simulation of Flight 1549 and its emergency landing in the Hudson River (by Captain Sullenberger):


These simulators are getting very realistic...

The Garbage Mystery...

Like most couples, my wife and I have divided up the chores.  In the boringly conventional mode, one of my chores every Thursday morning is to haul our week's trash about 400 feet down our driveway to the nearest public road.  There the garbage truck and its crew will pick them up, empty them, and leave the empties there for me to haul back up to the house in the afternoon.

We've lived here for over ten years now, so I've performed this little ritual over 500 times.  You could say that I'm an expert on certain aspects of our garbage – in particular, how much of it we produce.  There's really little variation; we consistently produce between two and three 50 gallon trash cans full every week.

But for the past three weeks, my wife has been in Indiana with her mom.  That means I've had two trash cycles with her gone.  In those two weekly cycles, I've produced less than a half of one trash can.  I skipped taking it down last week; there wasn't enough to make it worthwhile. 

Now it makes sense to me that two of us would produce more trash than one of us, but I'd expect the difference to be about 2:1 – and instead it's more like 5:1.  This leads inexorably to the mystery: what on earth is my wife throwing out in such large quantities each week?  I don't really feel like inventorying all the garbage to find out.  I'm hoping one of my readers out there has already done this, and knows the answer.

Anyone?

Weirdness...

Via reader Tom B.:

HOW  SMART IS YOUR RIGHT FOOT?

You  have to try this please, it takes 2 seconds.  It is from an  orthopedic  surgeon.
This  will confuse your mind and you  will keep trying over and over again to see if you can outsmart your foot, but, you  can't.  It  is pre-programmed in your brain!

1.  While sitting at your desk in front of your computer,  lift your  right foot off the floor and make clockwise circles.

2. Now, while doing this, draw the number  '6' in the air with  your right hand. Your foot will change direction.

And there's nothing you can do about  it!  Before  the day  is done, you are going to try it again, if you've not already done so.

The first few times I tried this, it worked as advertised.  I found that if I moved very slowly and deliberately I could keep my foot going in a clockwise circle – but it took great concentration.  Even after many tries, if I move quickly I cannot do it.

Definitely weird.

How Good are You?

How good are you at “eyeballing” straight lines, angles, and lengths?  Take this test to see how you measure up...

Storm Summary...

First, the rain: 6.34 inches (161 mm) of lovely, lovely rain.  The graph at right tells the story (click to enlarge).  Most of this came down in liquid form, but some was solid (hail).

The barometric pressure changes were kinda dramatic (graph at left, click to enlarge), too.

The forecast has a 60% chance of rain on Tuesday.  Wow!